Britain’s Debt Problem, AI’s Local Burden, Poland’s Economic Boom

Summary

Wall Street Week — Britain’s Debt Problem, AI’s Local Burden, Poland’s Economic Boom

Host: David Westin (Bloomberg)
Date: May 29, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Wall Street Week, hosted by David Westin, journeys across major global economic stories:

1. The fiscal and political drama in the United Kingdom and its implications for global markets.
2. The rapid expansion of AI-driven data centers in the U.S., the local controversies they stoke, and the investment logic behind them.
3. Poland’s astonishing economic trajectory from post-Soviet laggard to European star — along with looming challenges.
4. The global aluminum market’s destabilization by tariffs and Middle East conflict, with ground-level effects for manufacturers and consumers.

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I. Britain’s Fiscal and Political Tightrope

Segment starts: [02:22]

Key Discussion Points

• Political Instability Meets Market Anxiety:
  The UK is experiencing high political turnover, with its fifth Prime Minister in eight years. Anxiety about further instability is mirrored in the gilt (government bond) market, where yields are soaring.
• Market Reactions to Fiscal Promises:
  John Authers (Bloomberg Senior Editor) notes that both main UK parties, along with new left and right alternatives, may promise higher government spending. The bond market fears this and reacts with higher yields.
• Comparisons to the US Situation:
  Britain’s economic model makes it more susceptible to international shocks compared to the U.S., which benefits from a big internal market and the dollar’s global dominance.
• The Role of Financial Markets:
  Markets, especially bonds, now discipline governments more than currency markets used to.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Bond Market’s Power:
  “What we've got at the moment is more of a slow motion car wreck with Labour. But yes, the ultimate fact is true that the higher the yields go... the less room for maneuver any government has...”
  — John Authers [05:02]
• Historical Parallels & Lessons:
  “It used to be the currency market... that really inflicted pain and now that currencies do tend to float more... it's the bond market that has now taken over as the anchor.”
  — John Authers [07:03]
• Wider Relevance:
  “Is what we're seeing in the UK simply what's going to happen in other parts of world, including United States, just sooner?”
  — David Westin [08:49] “The U.S. can delay, but can't escape the arithmetic of debt.”
  — Paraphrasing John Authers [09:05-10:50]

Memorable Moment

• Pop culture lands in finance:
  “We know from your column that you are a student of popular music... I don't remember the Aretha Franklin song Who's Zoomin' Who?”
  — David Westin to John Authers [06:36]

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II. AI Data Centers: Boon or Burden for Local Communities?

Segment starts: [16:25]

Key Discussion Points

• The AI Data Center Boom:
  Trillions are being invested in infrastructure for artificial intelligence, leading to a surge in massive data center construction across the U.S.
• Long-term Investor Confidence:
  Mark Gansey (CEO, DigitalBridge) discusses how investors back these facilities for stable, long-term returns, betting on 15- to 20-year cash flows.
• Local Opposition and Community Costs:
  Local residents and officials, such as Dana Nessel (Michigan Attorney General), express concerns about the lack of transparency, possible environmental impact, increased rates, and lasting local burdens.
• Historical Analogy:
  Gansey draws parallels to the public resistance cell towers faced decades ago, suggesting industry engagement and transparency can overcome opposition.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Community Pushback:
  “If you talk to Michigan residents, they don't want these in their backyard... Until we have some of those questions... most people don't want to see these massive data centers continue to be erected.”
  — Dana Nessel [21:10]
• On Navigating Community Concerns:
  “At that point in time, nobody wanted a cell tower in their backyard. And that was the rise of NIMBYism... But the sector got organized. We navigated through it.”
  — Mark Gansey [22:06]
• Transparency and Accountability:
  “The contract that was posted publicly was heavily redacted... we can't even know who signed this contract or what company they're affiliated with, which is pretty insane when you think about it.”
  — Dana Nessel [23:08]
• Long-Term Risks:
  “In the event that the bubble bursts... somebody is going to have to pay all of the extra costs of this new infrastructure. And who’s going to pay it? Well, it’s either going to be borne by the ratepayers... or taxpayers.”
  — Dana Nessel [25:50]
• The Industry Perspective:
  “The industry has to get organized. It has to explain ultimately the benefits... and why it ultimately isn't going to rise their utility bill and take away all their water. We got a pretty big uphill challenge.”
  — Mark Gansey [27:13]

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III. Poland: From Brain Drain to Economic Powerhouse

Segment starts: [31:10]

Key Discussion Points

• Reverse Brain Drain:
  After years of emigration, Poland is successfully luring back its brightest young talent, fueling economic growth.
• Macroeconomic Miracle:
  Poland’s GDP soared from $67 billion in 1989 to $1 trillion in 2025 — the second-fastest pace globally after China.
• Building Blocks:
  Success built on 1990s reforms, EU integration, entrepreneurial spirit, and strong institutions.
• Vibrant Tech and Digital Sectors:
  The digital sector alone is projected to almost triple by 2030.
• Mounting Challenges:
  Large deficits (7% of GDP), demographic headwinds (shrinking labor force), and the need for more R&D, education, and policy innovation.
• Defense and Geopolitics:
  Ukraine war prompts defense spending near 5% of GDP, raising budget sustainability questions.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Poland’s Transformation:
  “There was only one country in that period that had higher pace of growth and it was China.”
  — Andrzej Domanski, Minister of Finance [33:18]
• Startup Ambition:
  “This ambition and this certainty that whatever is being built from here or by Polish teams has this potential of becoming a global solution.”
  — Alexandra Podrushevska, founder [35:39]
• On Fiscal Challenges:
  “Although public debt is still at moderate level... we are running large deficits...It is clearly not sustainable over the longer term.”
  — Macie Albanowski, Institute for Structural Research [36:06]
• On Demographics:
  “By 2050, our labor force will shrink by about 20%.”
  — Macie Albanowski [37:28]
• Why Return Home?
  “But I decided to take a step, which I don’t think is a step back, but step into something entirely new, but just in the place which I used to call home when I was a child.”
  — Alexandra Podrushevska [42:21]

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IV. Aluminum: Global Conflict, Tariffs, and Economic Ripples

Segment starts: [45:37]

Key Discussion Points

• Tariffs and the Iran War:
  With Trump-era tariffs at 50% and the regional supply disruptions from war, the U.S. faces aluminum price surges and logistical headaches.
• Critical Supply Chains:
  The Middle East accounts for 20% of non-China aluminum, and supply is now seriously curtailed.
• Canadian Exemption Dilemma:
  Much of U.S. imports come from Canada, requiring tailored trade policy — or risk losing critical supply.
• Manufacturers on the Front Line:
  Small-to-midsize companies like Wolf Tooth Components feel squeezed by input costs, tariffs, bigger corporate buyers, and sudden price shocks.
• Triple Whammy for Prices:
  Supply disruptions, previous shocks (Covid, Russian invasion), tariffs, and now soaring demand from the AI/data center construction boom all compound pressure.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Middle East Disruptions:
  “It will take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for the Middle East supply that’s been affected to come back into the market. And then you need 60 days to ship to North America...”
  — Jean Simard, Aluminum Association of Canada [55:27]
• Manufacturer’s Perspective:
  “When prices of aluminum or raw material go in... we can’t necessarily just, like, raise our prices right away... it just comes right out of our bottom line.”
  — Brendan Moore, Wolf Tooth Components [53:03]
• On Passing Costs to Consumers:
  “If aluminum goes up 20% again this year, our prices of our products aren’t going to go 20%. They’re going to go up like 3 or 5%... But we don’t have the negotiating power that say they have or automaker has.”
  — Brendan Moore [56:07]
• The Unexpected Impact of AI:
  “The AI buildout is actually one of the big impacts for aluminum prices going up right now.”
  — Brendan Moore [53:45]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• Britain’s Fiscal Crisis: [02:22] – [13:48]
• AI Data Center Debate: [16:25] – [27:43]
• Poland’s Economic Rise: [31:10] – [42:47]
• Aluminum Under Pressure: [45:37] – [57:01]

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Episode Takeaways

• UK: Political volatility combined with fiscal constraints sharply limits the future path of government policy. Markets, especially bonds, now exercise powerful oversight—potentially a preview for other Western economies.
• AI Data Centers: The rapid buildout divides investors and communities; long-term promises must be weighed against local, immediate costs and require far more transparency and dialogue.
• Poland: Offers a hopeful model for post-communist transformation, but mounting budget and demographic problems will test whether swift catch-up growth can translate into durable prosperity.
• Aluminum: Globally, resource markets are buffeted not just by geopolitics and tariffs but also by the demands of new tech infrastructure. U.S. manufacturers and consumers may increasingly bear these costs.

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Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[David Westin]

This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Westin, bringing you stories of capitalism. The data center frenzy is in full bloom, but the neighbors are restless. Is there a way for the rest of us to get the benefits from AI without compromising the interests of those who will be living next door? Plus, earlier we brought you the story of the brain drain from New Zealand. People and talent are flowing the other way for Poland. It's one of the fastest growing economies around, driven in part by the best and brightest returning home, and we use it for everything from military equipment to packaged goods. Aluminum is ubiquitous, and now it's caught in between Trump tariffs and a war in Iran. But we start with the drama that is politics in the United Kingdom. As the fifth Prime Minister in eight years is fighting to avoid yet another turnover at number 10 and the markets are keeping score. How much say does the gilt market have in who gets to run the country? John authors is Bloomberg's senior editor for markets. So John, there's a lot of political upheaval, drama playing out in the United Kingdom right now. At the same time bonds are selling off gilts. Yes, the yields have gone up. Is there a connection between the two and if so, what?

[John Authers]

Yes, there's certainly a connection which is that Britain has even more than where we are here in the us the rest of the Western world. It has a fiscal problem. We don't have much headroom left to spend money in the uk. Any sign of concern about political instability will in its own right worry bond markets. And specifically at the moment, because Keir Starmer is in a lot of political trouble. Any challenger, even those who you could argue are to his political right, will want to do something to show they've made a difference once they take over from him. And that's going to involve spending some more money on something that's going to involve being more lenient on fiscal policy than Labour has been so far. So plainly the risks are towards more fiscal spending. That's plainly something the gilts market dislikes. There's a long history of friction between a Labour government that has its origins in, in socialism and the unions and bond markets.

[David Westin]

Naturally there is also a more recent history between the Conservative government, the bond market. Yes, read Liz Truss. We remember that. But one of the things you pointed out on one of your columns is actually the yields on gilts right now are above where they got to under Liz Trust.

[John Authers]

Exactly. I mean there are, to be fair to the current Labour government, there are reasons for that in the interest rates have risen across the world since then and what really can endanger a financial accident is when yields rise very fast, which is absolutely what's happened under, under Liz Truss. She, she took the market by surprise and and thereby slipped on a banana skin. Whereas what we've got at the moment is more of a slow motion car wreck with Labor. But yes, the ultimate fact is true that the, the higher the yields go and they are now even higher than, than when they toppled Liz Truss. The, the less room for maneuver any government has and to some extent this is a systemic problem for the UK because as we've just said that Liz Truss was a was and is Conservative. This is universal across the parties a certain lack of trust and the British two party system is breaking down at present. And both Greens who are basically a British government of the aoc, Bernie Sanders left, and the Reform Party under Nigel Farage, who are obviously very similar to the Donald Trump maga, right, both of those are on the face of it, more inclined to splash money around and do things that the bond market really dislikes than the incumbents. There's a very worrying dynamic about the entire British political situation, or at least it's very worrying if you're, if you're a gilts investor.

[David Westin]

We know from your column that you are a student of popular music and I don't remember the Aretha Franklin song who's zooming who?

[John Authers]

Yes, 1985, I remember that. That was actually my first time in America. But anyway, carry on.

[David Westin]

But if you take the bond market, the gilt market on one hand and the political system on the other, who's zooming who? I mean you've explained how the political turmoil can affect the gilt market. Is the gilt market affecting what's going on in politics as well at the moment?

[John Authers]

I mean certainly in the Liz Truss incident, yes, that was very much the case, that it was the bond market that basically said no you can't do this and forced the expulsion of first the Chancellor and then the Prime Minister itself this time around that's less clear. You could certainly say that at this point the bond market has become a kind of a sheet anchor or a straight jacket for whoever is in charge. But it will be more uncomfortable for a party of the left that actually has fewer hang ups about spending taxpayers money. But the overall, the overall position is difficult either way. The other thing that's quite interesting compared to history is that it used to be the currency market. So Harold Wilson have been forced to devalue in the pound and then going on television to say that the, the pound in your pocket of course isn't worth any less, which absolutely wasn't true. And then Labour government of the 70s being forced by a run on the pound to, to, to go to borrow from the imf. And John Major's government basically never recovered from the Black Wednesday attack on sterling by George Soros and others. So it used to be the currency market that really inflicted pain and now that currencies do tend to float more gradually, more easily and now that we've had many years of being used to extremely low bond yields, that cheap money is being treated as a fact of life or a birthright almost. It's the bond market that has now taken over as the anchor. The great limitation, the United Kingdom has

[David Westin]

a historically high ratio of debt to gdp, but they're not alone in that they may be a little bit more than some of the rest of us, maybe a little less than some as well. Is what we're seeing in the UK simply what's going to happen in other parts of world, including United States, just sooner?

[John Authers]

Yes, there's a reason that the UK has more of a problem or more of an instant problem, which you can explain easily enough from geography and history. The UK is an island which got rich by trading with other people. The US is basically a continent that got rich by trading with itself. So exports have always been a much more important part of the, the UK equation. When you have pressure on the currency, when you have inflation elsewhere, it will affect the UK much, much more swiftly, much more dramatically. It has, it is much more dependent on the generosity of others than, than the states. That said, America's share of GDP, the debt, public debt, as a share of GDP, was in round numbers 20 years ago, before the global financial crisis. 60% cause, you know, occasioning great alarm. The Simpson Bowles, if you remember that attempts to cut the deficit. It's now 120. And whatever you think of the relative merits of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both of them spent money, whether through tax cuts or fiscal largesse or both, in a way that suggested that this just wasn't an issue. It will become an issue at a time. The US is a. Is a bigger, more closed economy than the uk. It can, and it has the exorbitant privilege of, of the dollar. It doesn't. It's not as. It's not disciplined by, by potential runs on the currency like the UK is. But ultimately, if you're borrowing more than you have and can't generate the money to repay it, you're either going to get very bad inflation or you're going to go bust. You're not going to go bust, you're going to get very bad inflation. And that, that is ultimately the risk that afflicts this country too.

[David Westin]

You were a young lad, a young boy, during the Wilson time.

[John Authers]

Yes.

[David Westin]

And the crisis when there was really high inflation in the UK and as you say, the pound was devaluing, and I think some would say that was a predicate for what happened with Margaret Thatcher and a fundamental revision of the economy. Is there any prospect that could happen again in the uk? Could we have a new Thatcher?

[John Authers]

We certainly can't see her yet. Although that being said, if you think back to 75, 76. Margaret Thatcher wins the leadership of the Conservative party in 75, doesn't actually get the general election where she becomes prime minister until 79. She certainly didn't seem to be quite the radical departure that she would turn out to be in 75. So maybe there is somebody out there who is hiding in plain sight already. I think the points I would make about the Thatcher regime, I was 12 when she got in, 24 when she left. My generation of Brits still basically think she's running the world. And you could also argue there's an analogue to that in the States, which didn't get into anything like as much trouble in the 70s as Britain did, but did get into a lot of trouble. Paul Volcker is the key figure who changes things America around. He is appointed by Jimmy Carter, as was Alfred Kahn. Deregulation, yes, and was American. The American economy have boomed the way it did in the 80s. If you hadn't then had Ronald Reagan, who really believed this stuff, who was a really enthusiastic advocate for it, almost certainly not. But it was much easier for him to do what he did because he actually had the building blocks in place again. The the ancient regime had accepted that the game was up and shifted before you then had the really exciting free market politician Thatcher or Reagan to take things forward. So I think the key moment is when is the game up? When does the market, does the economy force a change? It's conceivable it could happen here that Donald Trump grasps that you just need to actually start cutting entitlements and cutting back on defence budgets or whatever. But I think it's more likely that circumstances force a change from the ancient regime and that's the critical change, rather than that voters elect in the person who will make the change.

[David Westin]

Coming up, the money is pouring in. The construction is underway. Data centers are paving the way for our future. But some communities want to know why they have to be in their backyard.

[Narrator/Announcer]

What if you could have more wins, more support, more sound effects? At LPL Financial, we like the sound of that because LPL offers more advisors. What if you could have more ways to help your clients ready to invest? What if you could find an advisor that really understands you when it comes to your finances, your business, your future? At lpl, we ask what if you could Paid advertisement Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. LPL Financial LLC member FINRA SIPC Support

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[David Westin]

The thing about AI for business, it

[Jean Simard]

may not automatically fit the way your business works.

[David Westin]

At IBM, we've seen this firsthand.

[Macie Albanowski]

But by embedding AI across hr, IT

[David Westin]

and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off.

[Jean Simard]

Deep in the work that moves the business.

[David Westin]

Let's create smarter business.

[Jean Simard]

IBM.

[David Westin]

This is a story about good fences making good neighbors. The promise of artificial intelligence has brought a wave of data center building across the country. And in success, we hope that AI will benefit the economy, investors and the vast majority of Americans.

[Public Investing Representative]

A trillion dollars is an enormous amount of infrastructure.

[Brendan Moore]

You have to have complete confidence that the trillion dollars you're putting down would

[Trond Olaf Kristofferson]

be performant for as long as you could.

[Mark Gansey]

See, if you're building a multibillion dollar data center in the US or around

[Public Investing Representative]

the world, and you have a 15

[Mark Gansey]

plus year contract with a company with a $3 trillion market cap, that feels pretty good.

[David Westin]

If we knew how to get a

[John Authers]

trillion dollars right now, which we don't,

[Mark Gansey]

would we be able to deploy that

[David Westin]

profitably in the next few years?

[John Authers]

And I'm not sure about that, but

[Mark Gansey]

I feel confident we can make 500

[John Authers]

billion of value back.

[David Westin]

But while we all wait for the full benefits of AI to be realized, what does construction of these massive AI data centers mean for the people living around them. And how much of a say do residents have in the type of fences keeping things in or out?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Not now, not ever. Push back today to a proposed AI data center. Amazon comes to town, starts emailing our town manager and wants to build an enormous data center. And the citizens did not know about this, even though it was going to be a $500 million investment.

[David Westin]

That sort of massive capital investment brings with it the prospect that the data centers being built today will be with us for a long time to come.

[Mark Gansey]

Ultimately to be paid for the risk that we're taking, we're looking to get a lease that's somewhere in the neighborhood. David between 13 years and 17 years.

[David Westin]

Mark Gansey is the CEO of Digital Bridge, an alternative asset investment firm specializing in data infrastructure. He's among the major players making long term bets for AI. Massive bets that are being distributed across a wide array of investors.

[Mark Gansey]

So on the equity side you're seeing the traditional players, the big infrastructure players. And so we're seeing today is we're seeing the large mega funds. These big, big infrastructure players really lean into the AI thematic. And as a part of that thematic, when they think about infrastructure, they think about putting billions of dollars of equity to work behind these large data center platforms and projects. On the debt side, it's actually really interesting. Today of course we see bank syndicates, we see construction facilities, financing club deals on the bank side. And now David, you're beginning to see the emergence of private debt capital. So private debt capital financing projects are a little tougher, perhaps less investment grade exposure or perhaps even more risk.

[David Westin]

On the power side, projected investments in data centers have climbed past $3 trillion. That's a $3 trillion long term bet on the future, which requires a business plan with some pretty attractive returns.

[Mark Gansey]

That is the long term nature of the cash flows. So that we go to build that facility, we're getting an imputed yield. And today most data center yields are somewhere between. David On a cash on cash return basis, somewhere between 8 and 12%. It just depends on who the credit is. So if you're dealing with an investment grade tenant like Amazon, you're going to be at the low end of that guidance. If you're dealing with a brand new startup or perhaps you're dealing with a quantum compute player that's non investment grade, you're looking at something more like an 11 to 12 cap rate. But you do need to be paid for the risk that you're taking. And that risk is measured in long durated cash flows with some form of an escalator.

[David Westin]

But while investors anticipate that Future payout over 15 or 20 years in the communities where data centers are going up right now, there are immediate potential effects on the people who live near them.

[Dana Nessel]

To say that I have significant concerns is sort of an understatement.

[David Westin]

Dana Nestle is the Michigan attorney General whose job includes looking out for the interests of Michigan taxpayers, ratepayers, and citizens. She is appealing the state's expedited approval of a very large data center set to be built in Saline Township, just south of Ann Arbor.

[Dana Nessel]

Well, it appears as though the project is underway. The first that I learned about it was really on Halloween of last year that this was going to be an enormous project, a project bigger than any of its kind we've seen.

[David Westin]

It's not that Attorney General Nessel denies the potential upside of data centers in Michigan, but she wants to test the projections and promises, weighing both the benefits and the burdens of things like changing electricity rates, land values, and water needs that her citizens will face. The sorts of things that may require some pretty good fences.

[Dana Nessel]

If you talk to Michigan residents, they don't want these in their backyard. Nobody knows yet what it's going to mean for that community. They don't know what it's going to mean for their water. They don't know what it's going to mean in regard to noise pollution or other types of pollutants. Until we have some of those questions that can be more fully answered and better policies put in place at the state level, most people don't want to see these massive data centers continue to be erected.

[David Westin]

Michigan residents aren't the only ones with concerns. Pew Research center found that an overwhelming share of Americans think data centers are mostly bad for the environment, home energy costs, and their overall quality of life. But Gansey says he's seen a version of this play before and that it can be handled in a way that satisfies the need for growth and the concerns of citizens. Do you need to take into account

[Mark Gansey]

the reaction of the community when 100% is a factor? I've been doing this for 32 years, building digital infrastructure, and where I got my sort of humble start was building cell towers, David, in 1994, and at that point in time, nobody wanted a cell tower in their backyard. And that was the rise of NIMBYism, not in my backyard. Well, the sector got organized. We navigated through it. We explained the benefits of mobile communications, emergency services, and ultimately the fact that most Americans wanted ubiquitous mobile coverage. And so that carried through the early 2000s into 2010, 2020. And today, you don't hear a lot of skirmishes around cell towers because largely the industry has made peace with the local community.

[David Westin]

State leaders like Nestle don't deny that things might work out for all concerned, but for that to happen, she believes we all need to know in advance the scope of data center construction, the effects it's likely to have on the community, and what commitments the developers and owners are making to address the possible local downsides.

[Dana Nessel]

The request was made before our utility regulator, the Michigan Public Service Commission, for this contract. It was filed for an ex parte hearing, meaning a hearing that would take place behind closed doors that we wouldn't be allowed to be part of. So the contract that was posted publicly was heavily redacted, and that included redactions to some incredibly important information, you know, involving things like exit fees, what would happen upon the termination of the contract. Even, you know, basic terms and definitions had been redacted. Customer credits, even the signatories to the contract had been redacted. So that we can't even know who signed this contract or what company they're affiliated with, which is pretty insane when you think about it. How are we supposed to know whether or not ratepayers are getting a fair deal if we're not even allowed to see the contract itself?

[David Westin]

All of this comes against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving technology that is growing at a rate we've never seen seen before, raising questions about what happens if things evolve in ways that fall short of the best case. As an infrastructure investor, Gansey says they're ready for that. How do you anticipate the further growth, as well as the obsolescence of some of the technology you're putting in?

[Mark Gansey]

Well, I think the great part about being the owner of the railroad is you don't own the actual cars that run on the tracks. We own the land. We build the power plant. Sometimes, actually, we're building power adjacent to the data center. We build the physical real estate structure inside the four walls. We bring the fiber connectivity, we bring the cooling, we bring the backup power. We create the data hall conditions where the UPC units are in and the cooling is in and the cable trays. But eventually, David, our customers put in the technology. So what makes our business great is we are, candidly, we're GPU and TPU agnostic. And what I mean by that is we're not involved in the active compute. That is a bet that we don't make it Digital bridge. What we are in the business of doing is providing that mission critical real estate and infrastructure to the top technology providers in the world. And we let them make the decision what kind of server they're going to buy.

[David Westin]

That may take care of the investor risk, but what about community risk? In Michigan, abandoned auto plants still dot the landscape, A constant reminder of an earlier era of technological promise and the costs that followed. Who will bear the cost this time remains uncertain.

[Dana Nessel]

In the event that the bubble bursts and something happens and this hyperscale center in Saline Township is no longer needed, somebody is going to have to pay all of the extra costs of this new infrastructure. And who's going to pay it? Well, it's either going to be borne by the ratepayers in this state and we already are subject to some of the highest rates and the worst reliability anywhere in the country, or it'll be the taxpayers. They'll have to bail out the utility companies who are making these, in some instances, you know, terrible bets that AI is going to be around for a long time. If you look at these contracts and it's clear that the cost is supposed to be borne out not over the course of a few years, but over the course of really a few decades, you know, up to something like 18 years. But we can't even see the exit fees in the next few years. Those that have encouraged these data centers to come here without any sort of guardrails at all, I think they've set us up for a very difficult future here.

[David Westin]

Which brings us back to those fences neighbors need. Gansey sees a way to build what's needed in a way that accommodates everyone and doesn't stand in the way of progress.

[Mark Gansey]

You're seeing red states and blue states both look at the data center opportunity and quandary in the same way, which is it can't hurt consumers. So the industry has to get organized. It has to explain ultimately the benefits of why these data centers exist. Why are they creating jobs, not losing jobs? Why is it going to be good for them long term from a property value perspective and why it ultimately isn't going to rise their utility bill and take away all their water. We got a pretty big uphill challenge.

[David Westin]

We need data centers to build the technology of tomorrow. The long term promises are big, but so are short term costs that make may fall on the shoulders of local communities. That's why we need to construct some fences carefully to protect our neighbors. And to do that, we need to bring everyone to the table. Up next, Poland has gone from a laggard to a European economic leader, in large part by attracting back all those talented poles working abroad.

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[David Westin]

This is a story about going home again the narrative of Europe in recent years has too often been about lack of growth. But there are exceptions. It turns out that Poland is one of the world world's fastest growing economies. And although it's now attracting its best and brightest to come home to build their businesses, tough challenges still lie ahead. Born and raised in Warsaw, Alexandra Podrushevska followed a well trodden path for young ambitious Poles and went abroad.

[Alexandra Podrushevska]

I wanted to study abroad and I started looking around and and my objective was getting the best education that I can get. So I left in 2013 to study at Cambridge. I didn't really make a choice after studies about which country I want to live in. It was very much driven by the opportunities. What could I do in different countries? And for me it was natural to stay in the uk,

[David Westin]

but that was then. Now the well trodden path is heading in the other direction. Poland is booming. Its economy topped $1 trillion last year and this year it will be invited to the G20 summit. And its count of citizens living abroad, a figure that was steadily climbing after it joined the EU in 2004, peaked in 2017 and has been dropping ever since. Although Poland's National Statistics Agency adjusted its methodology in 2022. Among those returning is Pedroevska.

[Alexandra Podrushevska]

I think a lot has changed and especially for people like me, with the background like I had, I wanted to work on the edge of new technologies. I really wanted to be exposed to the best R and D, the best teams that are building effectively the future of what the technology sector is. I don't think that these opportunities opportunities were as obvious 10 years ago and as available as they are now.

[Andrzej Domanski]

Actually our performance started in 1989.

[David Westin]

Andrzej Domanski is Poland's Minister of Finance

[Andrzej Domanski]

and economy and 1989 we had GDP of US$67 billion. Last year GDP of Poland reached 1 trillion. There was only one country in that period that had higher pace of growth and it was China.

[David Westin]

What were the things that drove that performance over that long period of time?

[Andrzej Domanski]

Well first of all the reforms of the early 90s, strong institutions that were established here at that at the time, of course the entrepreneurship spirit of Polish people who helped in this process and of course, with no doubt joining European Union in 2004. And frankly, we are often asked what is the most important sector or most important company of Polish economy? And it's very difficult to say. And I perceive it as a strength of Poland because we are really well diversified. Polish economy is well integrated with other European Union economies. We are well integrated with global value chains. At the same time, we are quite important market of 37 million people. So we have strong domestic markets. So there are many engines of Polish GDP growth.

[David Westin]

Drivers of Poland's economic growth include a range of services as well as manufacturing. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a sharp uptick in defense spending, projected to account for almost 5% of GDP in 2025, the highest in the EU. Its digital industry is also growing fast. McKinsey estimates the current $44 billion sector will grow to $123 billion in 2030, accounting for 9% of GDP. That's Petrushevsky's domain. She co founded Vivid Q, a British company developing holographic display technology in 2017. But on her return to Poland, she started VastPoint, a venture capital firm focused on tech startups in Central and Eastern Europe.

[Alexandra Podrushevska]

The startup scene is very vibrant and I think about this word, I think it really represents what's currently going on. I think that this ambition and this certainty that whatever is being built from here or by Polish teams has this potential of becoming a global solution.

[David Westin]

Yet for all the optimism around Poland, there are some warning signs ahead. Macie Albanowski is an economist at the Institute for Structural Research in Warsaw.

[Macie Albanowski]

The main short term challenge for Poland is to consolidate public finances. Although public debt is still at moderate level of around 60% of GDP and public debt is safe in Poland, we are running large deficits. Last year it was around 7% of GDP. So it is clearly not sustainable over the longer term. And we need to come up with a way to rationalize policy. Public spending, probably raise some taxes and probably we need to face the fact that elevated military spending requires some tax hikes. We don't want to start consolidating our public finances when we are under external pressure because then it's more painful.

[Andrzej Domanski]

We spent close to 5% of our GDP DP on defence. This is close to 50 billion euro per year. So of course we run high deficit that we take some steps to lower it gradually. We believe that we are not in the position to cut spendings on defense.

[David Westin]

Another challenge lies in demographics. For Poland, as in much of the

[Macie Albanowski]

Western world, by 2050, our labor force will shrink by about 20%. So this is one large factor. Secondly, the average age of an employee is increasing and it also matters for the productivity. While older workers can certainly work with modern technologies, they may need some more support than younger workers. So we need to invest more in policies that allow upskilling, reskilling, adjusting skills to these new technologies. And currently we are not doing much in this direction.

[David Westin]

How do you address that economically?

[Andrzej Domanski]

So we are running many programs that are supporting Polish families with some additional income. We have also started in vitro program. Already 13,000 children were born thanks to this program in Poland. And I want to say personally that we are really proud that after eight years of very right wing government that stopped this program. Our government reintroduced it and we already have, As I said, 13,000 young Polish people because of that. But it's not enough. We need to create new incentives for people to be more willing to work. And our government is doing that.

[David Westin]

Foreign investment is both an opportunity and a challenge for Poland. Many foreign investors have become more confident in the sustainability of the Poland story. But Domanski says the war in Ukraine has made some wary.

[Andrzej Domanski]

We see that some investors, especially from non European investors are a little more reluctant to invest in especially eastern parts of Poland recently. That being said, Poland will be the biggest of course, apart from Ukraine, beneficiary of peace in Ukraine. So we want wants just and lasting peace for Ukraine. First of all, of course to we need to end this brutal Russian aggression. It would be also very good for Polish economy. Foreign direct investments were absolutely crucial in building strength of Polish economy. And this is. No, it is a matter of fact, it's not an opinion because of the investments from other European countries, of course US investors right now we see more and more interest from Asian investors investing in in Poland.

[Macie Albanowski]

We certainly need to invest more in research and development. We need to invest in our academic sector. We also need to rethink our educational policies both aimed at children and at adults. Because this is what more successful Western economies are doing. And in Poland so far we relied much on competitive labor supply, on cheap labor costs. But if you want to reach higher level of wages, if you want want to converge to not to 50% of German wages, but to 80 or 90%. We certainly need to invest more in education, in research and development and in other pro growth policies. We are quite satisfied with our present growth trajectory. So we may not be well motivated to invest in research and development, to invest in new educational policies because so far it's good. But in future current growth model of Polish economy may not be sufficient.

[David Westin]

As they say, getting to the top is one thing, staying there is another. Poland's growth is a success story, but its next test will be sustaining it.

[Alexandra Podrushevska]

A lot of the success of Poland so far has been been unfortunately playing catch up. I think once you join, you know, 20 biggest economies in the world or 20 economies with the with the biggest GDP per capita, it really becomes about what is the limit of your growth and where do you need to seek it if playing catch up is not going to work out that well anymore.

[David Westin]

But in the end for Poland, as it is for many countries, the key is making sure that the best of the brightest can go home again and stay there.

[Alexandra Podrushevska]

I could have stayed in London, raised a fund there. I could have thought about maybe moving to the US and effectively starting over. But I decided to take a step, which I don't think is a step back, but step into something entirely new, but just in the place which I used to call home when I was a child. So it feels really special to be able to do that. It feels also really special because I don't feel like I have to give up on anything.

[David Westin]

Coming up, it's not just oil and fertilizer. Aluminum is another victim of the Iran war, which is making President Trump's plans to strengthen the U.S. industry that much harder.

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[David Westin]

This is a story about trying to have it both ways. Since he first became president, Donald Trump has sought to protect the U.S. aluminum aluminum industry through tariffs. But the war in Iran may be taking us in a very different direction. Our colleague Christian Friedland tells us a story of a key metal that is caught in the middle.

[Andrzej Domanski]

Aluminum foil keeps foods from drying out

[John Authers]

while sealing in all their natural flavor.

[Narrator/Announcer]

When you think about aluminum, the first thing that comes to mind might be tin foil or soda can cans, but it's also an essential component of cars, planes and machinery. It's the world's most abundant metal. But even that hasn't kept aluminum safe from the fallout of war.

[Jean Simard]

The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be shipped from the Middle east because there's been some damage and there's been some curtailments to avoid further damage.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Jean Simard is the President and CEO of the Aluminum association of Canada.

[Jean Simard]

It's a very significant situation for the aluminium sector worldwide because the Middle east produces 20% of all the aluminium outside China and it ships to Asia, but mostly to the US and to Europe.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Of the top aluminum producing countries in the world, two are in the Middle east, and Simard says the impact of the war in Iran could be long

[Jean Simard]

lasting, starting at the beginning of the crisis. The first curtailment happened in Qatar because of an energy supply situation and then damage was done in Bahrain and then to the Alta Wheeler smelters in the Emirates. This is very significant because it will take a long time to bring it back. Smelters are very highly impacted by energy and to restart a smelter you have to do like if there is a supply problem with electricity for your house, you have to unplug everything and then replug one at a time so they can only start back two cells a day out of hundreds and hundreds of cells.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Production is just one part of the aluminum supply chain. Facing disruption, distribution is another. Like so many of the world's exports, aluminum needs to be shipped often a long way. And shipments are snarled by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

[Jean Simard]

The problem is what's in front of us. The last ship to leave the Middle east just before the beginning of the crisis has made it to the US. There's no other ship on its way. It took 60 days to get get there. So the full shock is ahead of us. I'm not too sure that all downstream transformers, processors, mom and pop shops that use aluminium are fully aware of what's ahead of them.

[Narrator/Announcer]

In the first two weeks of the war, the price of aluminum on the London metal exchange saw double digit gains shooting to record highs. But while the war added to rising prices around the world, some of the fallout in the US is self inflicted. Last year President Trump hiked tariffs on imports of aluminum to 50% with the intention of stimulating domestic production. As of 2025 the US was dependent on imports to meet some 60% of internal aluminum consumption and that was something that the Trump administration didn't like.

[Trond Olaf Kristofferson]

The US is short market on primary aluminium, so the US needs to import a lot of primary aluminium to fill demand. So to attract that metal then US consumers or manufacturing using aluminium in effect how to pay the duty on aluminium into the US market.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Trond Olaf Kristofferson is the CFO of Norsk Hydro, a publicly traded aluminum producer based in Norway. The company is also in the unique position of having having a production facility in Qatar.

[Trond Olaf Kristofferson]

Our joint venture in Qatar, Kataloum has been impacted by the war and is currently operating around 60% production capacity. Because of the situation and we continue to operate around that level. It is a challenging situation with the raw material access and also to get metal out from the region. But, but we are continuing to operate at that production level.

[Narrator/Announcer]

And so is the US now facing more of an aluminum crisis than other parts of the world?

[Trond Olaf Kristofferson]

Well the supply situation I think is all the situation in mid last impacts. The Supply situation in all markets. Physically, when it comes to supply, I think the Asian market is worse impact because quite a lot of the metal from the Middle east is normally sold In Asia, around 2 and a half million tonnes. But the price impact is global.

[Narrator/Announcer]

This isn't the first time the United States has imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum. In 2018, when I was Foreign Minister, the trade spat between our two countries ended with the US backing down. And although the US is facing higher aluminum prices today, Simard says that's not a direct effect of the war in Iran. That's because the vast majority of aluminum the United States imports comes from Canada.

[Jean Simard]

When the tariffs, the 50% tariff were implemented, it created a price shock in the market for exporters into the US as Canada is one of them. And basically the reaction was to divert ship shipments to another market which covered the full logistical costs and the whole netback that would differentiate this destination from the us. One thing is sure, if you want to get all the available supply from Canada, you have as a policymaker in the US to do a carve out for Canada within the global tariff situation right now. If that doesn't happen, Canada will go where the market is.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Among the industries that are most affected by higher aluminum prices are packaging and transportation, from trains and trucks to mopeds and bikes. And that's where Brendan Moore comes in.

[Brendan Moore]

Fundamentally, aluminum is one of the primary materials used on a bicycle. The reason is it's very light, very strong, reasonably priced. You know, it's not a super exotic metal.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Moore's company, Wolf Tooth Components, makes premium bike parts that are shipped all over the world. His manufacturing plant in the suburbs of Minneapolis is about 7,000 miles from the Strait of Hormuz. But he's still feeling the consequences of the war in Iran.

[Brendan Moore]

We're a small company like us, we're not Boeing. So we don't get to say, kaiser send us 10 truckloads of aluminum. We buy our aluminum through suppliers locally and those suppliers will source that from various suppliers around the world. We don't get a lot of choice in where our aluminum comes from, but I can tell you that it's shifted and we do have a preference for US aluminum.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Eventually the only solution for a manufacturer like Moore might be to raise prices. But he says it's not so simple in consumer goods.

[Brendan Moore]

I would say it's not like when you go to the restaurant and there's like lobster pricing and it's like market rate. That's not how consumer goods work. And when prices of aluminum or raw material Go in. We can't necessarily just, like, raise our prices right away. Raising prices, remember, does three really bad things. One, it upsets your customers. Two, it puts you at a disadvantage to your competition. And three, it's actually a lot of work. And so when aluminum goes up effectively, initially, we just eat. It just comes right out of our bottom line.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Moore has seen peaks and valleys in the price of aluminum before, but he says this time is different.

[Brendan Moore]

If you look, there was Covid, which aluminum prices started going up, but then actually the biggest peak was right when the Russian war started, just went crazy high. And then tariffs came in, and then the strait of Hormuz was closed. But the biggest thing people aren't talking about, and you're seeing this broadly across commodities, is the AI buildout is actually one of the big impacts for aluminum prices going up right now. Those data centers that we all hear so much about, they use a ton of raw material and a lot of it's aluminum. And so kind of we're seeing like a triple whammy now, if you will.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Smaller manufacturers like wolf tooth components opponents not only have to contend with higher prices for the metal they need, but also have to compete against bigger, more powerful players that also use aluminum. The squeeze could eventually raise prices across the board for consumers, triggering another bout of inflation.

[Brendan Moore]

There's really no viable alternative to aluminum in our case. And you'd hear the same thing if you asked Boeing, like, they're still going to use tons of aluminum in the airplanes no matter what the price is, and the price of those airplanes will just go up. Same with our bicycle parts.

[Narrator/Announcer]

As the war drags on, so did the timeline for prices to stabilize back in Norway, Christopherson says the outlook is far from certain.

[Trond Olaf Kristofferson]

So in the aluminum market, I think we see the same situation as you see in the energy markets, where you have quite high prices in the front end, meaning metals to be delivered in the coming months. But then you have a declining price, a backwardation situation in the market, with lower prices falling down to $3,000 per tonne a couple of years out in time.

[Jean Simard]

So it will take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for the Middle east supply that's been affected to come back into the market. And then you need 60 days to ship to North America that you add to this. So we're heading for a supply shock as we move through the summer period. And this will last most likely for about a year, a year and a half, until this supply starts to make its way back into the market.

[Narrator/Announcer]

For business owners like Brendan Moore, the effects of domestic and foreign policy have become an unavoidable hazard of the job.

[Brendan Moore]

We can control the processing, we control our efficiency, we control our yields. So we have to just focus on those. So I think near term we're going to be able to mitigate most of the aluminum prices. Longer term, if it stays this high, there has to be some sort of increase. But a consumer, if, if aluminum goes up 20% again this year, our prices of our products aren't going to go 20%. They're going to go up like 3 or 5%. And I like Boeing don't, I mean I'm trying to poop poo them at all. But like we don't have the negotiating power that say they have or automaker has. And when these prices change or tariffs change, I see that almost the same day. I mean not joking sometimes. Well, I didn't start this small business because I wanted to learn about tariffs or deal with massive supply chain issues or deal with geopolitics. Those are in fact some of my least favorite things. Bicycles are way more fun than that stuff.

[Narrator/Announcer]

With all the back and forth of tariffs and wars, it's hard to see how U.S. policy at the moment is helping American manufacturers or American consumers. And this is one problem that the marketplace can't fix on its own.

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