Nicholas Burns (3:29)

It's had a decisive impact on the U. S. China relationship this winter and spring because, of course, China's fundamentally engaged economically in Iran, importing 1.3 million barrels a day on a discount that favors the Chinese. And the Chinese have major investments, in fact, greater investments in the Arab Gulf states than they do in Iran. So their interests have been fundamentally affected. And, of course, President Trump, I think rightfully, sensibly, took the view in the middle of a war, he couldn't go off to Beijing to stand beside Xi Jinping and have three days of summitry. He had to be at his desk running the war. So I understood the decision by President Trump and supported it.

David Westin (4:09)

President Trump has called upon various nations to help, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz, including China. Is China picking sides in this?

Nicholas Burns (4:17)

China is very much attached to Iran as a political ally, but I think we've seen in the Chinese reaction over the last three or four weeks of this war that the Chinese care a lot more about the predictable supply of oil and gas coming out of the Strait of Hormuz because they're dependent to a very large extent on that flow of energy. And their investments in the United Arab Emirates in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in Bahrain, in Kuwait, are far more substantial than what they had coming from Iran. So I think they're of two minds about this. They didn't want to see their political ally bludgeoned the way it has. But it's interesting, David, they haven't really lifted a finger to help politically and diplomatically Iran. They're much more focused on ending the Iranian missile attacks at the Gulf Arab oil and gas refineries. I think they want a quick end to the war itself. And one of the intriguing questions here is there's going to be an end game. There's going to be an attempt to resolve this by diplomacy. Can China play a role in that? And I would say behind the scenes, pushing the Iranians to an agreement that would be, I think, the American hope that they might do that.

David Westin (5:29)

So that is promising potentially, if China were to play some role in that, given history. Has China done that in the past? Has it typically played that sort of behind the scenes role?

Nicholas Burns (5:38)

It has not. It has in its own region, for instance, Myanmar, which is a neighboring border state. China is fundamentally involved in trying to steer the course of the civil war there. But the Chinese have not taken the step as the United States has been doing now for seven or eight decades of being a peacemaker and, and a leading diplomatic actor. I will say this. When I was in Beijing two years ago, Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, presided over a ceremonial handshake, you may remember this, between the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers. And the Chinese then began to message me and kind of in my face say, we're a big power in the Middle east now. Well, they haven't been present in the negotiations to date. Over the last three or four weeks, it's been the United States and Israel and, and the Gulf Arabs being the major actors in this drama with Iran. So I think China, in a way, has taken a hit on its political credibility. If you combine their lack of action to support effectively Iran diplomatically, I never thought they would intervene militarily and combine that with their silence, really. When the United States went into Venezuela in the early part of January, I think they looked like a fickle friend to both the Iranians and also the Venezuelans. But there's another side of this coin. Xi Jinping has been positioning himself throughout this first year and a quarter of Donald Trump's second term in office. He says, and this is quite hypocritical, by the way, and you can see through it, but it has some resonance in the global South. We're the predictable country. We're the upholder of stability in the world, both economic and political. Politically, we defend the United Nations Charter. Point, counterpoint in this duel, that he and President Trump are having a friendly duel in some respects as to which leader is the most respected global leader.

David Westin (7:30)

Now, the world is necessarily focused right now on Iran and what's going on with the war there and will be until that's resolved some way. But there were a lot of expectations for this planned summit between President Xi and President Trump. Before that, go back before the Iran war, what were the major issues between these two countries?

Nicholas Burns (7:49)

Well, you know, it's interesting. Scott Besant, Secretary Besant, had taken the lead in preparing this summit for President Trump, which is a little bit unusual normally in the last few decades, would have been the Secretary of State or the national security adviser. And that Tells you a lot. I think President Trump is seeking some degree of economic and financial stability with the Iranians after the wild roller coaster ride from Liberation Day last spring on and what the two sides were working out. And I very much think this is a good idea, a truce in the tariff war. The tariffs won't change much, but there'll be a certainty that until the end of this calendar year in 2026, both countries will stay at their current levels. And that helps. It helps markets with predictability. It helps the global economy and the two individual economies. Second, a truth and truce in the supply chain wars. So China would agree through the end of 2026, it's not going to withhold rare earth, rare earth magnets from the global market. The United States would agree. It would not play the cards that it played in the supply chain wars with computer parts, airplane parts, that kind of thing. That's also, I think, positive. Third, the United States agricultural industry depends on exports to China. In fact, China's the largest export market in most years. One fifth of all of our agricultural exports go to that one market. China and the Chinese, over the last couple of years, including when I was ambassador in the last two years of my time there, 2023 and 24, reduced significantly their purchases of American soybeans and sorghum and wheat and pork products. And that had a big negative impact on American agriculture. So President Trump, and again, I think this is a good idea, has been promoting the fact that we need to return to much higher purchases by the Chinese government. And then fentanyl, David, has been thrown into this as well. As you know, it's the leading cause of death in our society. Americans 18 to 49. And the majority of the precursor chemicals come from the Chinese black market, not from the government of China, but the black market. We made, I thought, significant inroads into this in the last year and a half of the Biden administration. I worked very closely with the Chinese government to try to reduce the sale, black market sale of this. And President Trump, I think, has done a good job keeping this alive as an issue. So those are four issues where I think when this summit is rescheduled, could turn out to be net positive for the economic relationship. And as recently as two years ago, we had a $750 billion two way trade relationship in goods and services, is a very substantial market for American companies. You know, we've talked a lot, David, about the war in Iran, which has been catastrophic in the short term for the global economy and energy flows. We talked about what's happening in Europe with Putin trying to cross the brightest red line, take over someone else's state. In the long term, there's a greater interest, China. China is out to out compete the United States. China wants to overtake us militarily in the Indo Pacific. They think that by putting major state investments into AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, cyber technology, space technology, they will become the technological champion of the world in the 2000-30s and 40s and 50s. We simply can't let that happen. So we can't take our eye off the big challenge, which is we do need to pivot to the Indo Pacific so that we can work with our allies, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, our partner India, to out compete the Chinese. And I'm afraid that another Middle east war was not in our interest. And so that to me, for future presidents, Republican and Democrat, for the American, for our kids, David, in my case, our grandchildren, we've got to keep our eye on the China competition.

David Westin (11:54)

Coming up, it's planting season in America, but the fertilizer farmers need may be stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.

Josh Linville (12:01)

We have never experienced anything like this in the fertilizer market. I've been at it for 24 years now. I've never seen anything like it.

IBM Narrator (12:12)

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Chase Bank Narrator (13:42)

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David Westin (14:49)

This is a story about the other shoe dropping the war in Iran has sent the price of oil and natural gas soaring, putting pressure on just about everyone from central banks trying to deal with inflation.

Nicholas Burns (15:00)

The economic effect could be bigger, they

Sami Nussdorf (15:02)

could be smaller, they could be much

David Westin (15:03)

smaller or much bigger. We just don't know. To people filling their tanks at the gas station.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (15:08)

Before the gas prices went up, I could fill my car up for like 30, $35. Now it's costing me right at 60.

David Westin (15:15)

But the Strait of Hormuz isn't just affecting energy prices, it's also hitting farmers who need fertilizer for the crops they're about to plant.

Christia Freeland (15:25)

What's happening to farmers right now is a double whammy at a time when they're very vulnerable.

David Westin (15:33)

Our special contributor Christia Freeland was among those who spotted the fertilizer problem as soon as the war began.

Christia Freeland (15:39)

I am a farmer's daughter and I'm also a former foreign minister and a former finance minister. And one of the first things I thought when this war started and when it was clear that Iran was going to be blocking the Strait of Hormuz was, oh no, what's going to happen to the farmers?

David Westin (15:58)

Fertilizer accounts for about 25% of the total costs of farmers of row crops such as corn and soybeans. And since the war with Iran began, prices for nitrogen based fertilizer have risen dramatically.

Josh Linville (16:11)

We have seen a major impact on global nitrogen phosphate values.

David Westin (16:15)

Josh Linville is Vice president of fertilizer at financial services firm Stonex.

Josh Linville (16:21)

Of course, as most farmers will tell you, those prices have skyrocketed. And it's based on the fear of the lack of supply that's out there. We have seen, because of the shutdown of the Persian Gulf, the global S and D for nitrogen and phosphate as well, which isn't getting as much traction, not as much attention. We are seeing both of those get extremely tight. So everybody is talking about the oil and the gas and everything else that flows through there. Few people know urea being the most commonly traded nitrogen product of the world. About a third of the world's product flows through that Strait of Hormuz. When you look at the top 10 list of global urea exporters, three of them sit behind the Strait of Hormuz. That's Iran, that's Qatar, and that's Saudi Arabia. Those three nations represent three of the 10 largest anhydrous exporting nations. And even on the phosphate side, not a lot of people understand this. Saudi Arabia is one of the world's top five exporting nations for phosphate exports around the world. And again, all of these products are stacked up and backed up, and production is suffering. Until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to save traffic.

Christia Freeland (17:20)

Farmers are very affected by the price of fertilizer. Fertilizer accounts for about 25% of the costs for a farmer. And this is happening just at seeding time, as they're getting ready to plant their crops. And it's happening at a time when farmers have been really beaten up. You know, the trade wars have been really hard for farmers, for American farmers, I should say. Covid was really, really hard for farmers. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the economic impact was really hard for farmers. So they've been having a hard time. And then on top of that, you see the price of fuel, the price of fertilizer skyrocket at a time when you're just, you know, going into your shop, looking at your seed drill, checking that everything works, getting ready to get

David Westin (18:15)

out in the fields U.S. farmers need for fertilizer is so great that they're allowed to eat imported even from Russia, the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in the world. But they have nevertheless been hurt by geopolitical events thousands of miles away.

Nicholas Burns (18:31)

So you've got to be able to move it in a cost effective manner at scale.

David Westin (18:37)

Tom Halverson is CEO of CoBank, which provides financial support to farms, cooperatives and agribusinesses.

Nicholas Burns (18:43)

At the same time, Rural Americans in general and farmers in particular, are not immune from macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, for example. They are incredibly exposed to trade, buying and selling. Internationally, producers have been squeezed quite dramatically over the last 12, 18, 24 months by a combination of lower commodity prices for what they sell on the one hand, and significantly higher prices for the inputs, be it fertilizer, seeds, chemicals, and things of that nature. And therefore, economic conditions are tougher than they have been, you know, until you go back to the 2018, 2019 period when we had our first trade conflict in general, but particularly the one we had with the Chinese.

David Westin (19:35)

And when the costs go up for farmers, the price of food cannot be far behind. With all that means for inflation, higher

Christia Freeland (19:44)

fuel prices automatically translate into higher food prices. Higher fertilizer prices automatically translate into higher food prices. And, you know, the thing that I think is especially challenging about that is the geopolitical and the political consequences. You know, a lesson that I think I really learned during COVID and during the inflationary aftermath of COVID was what a huge and unpredictable political impact the price of food can have. The people who are hurt the most are the most vulnerable. The people who are the most vulnerable in the world, and that is the global south, and the people who are the most vulnerable in our own countries. So, you know, that means in the United States, people for whom food is a really big part of their budget.

David Westin (20:42)

Since the war between the US and Iran began on February 28, we've already seen the consequences start to reverberate around the world. Just a week into the war, the price of urea rose by 19%. And with each day, those consequences spread and grow.

Josh Linville (21:00)

It's come in waves. And the way that we've looked at it from a supply standpoint, we woke up Saturday morning to the news that this attack had happened. From that point on, we knew vessel traffic was going to stop because you've got to wait until safe passage. The ship owners weren't going to put their crew and their vessel at harm's way. And so we knew that if this lasted several days, we were going to have a shipment problem. But we could solve that in relative short order if we kept it to, say, three to five days. After we moved past that period now, we started to wonder, okay, we're losing some of the most important shipment times of the entire year from this situation. And we had to start worrying about what's the impact on production because storage is finite in that part of the world. We finally started to see it come true. We started to see Oil and gas production go down. We started to see nitrogen production go down because it had nowhere else to go with these tons until the vessels started to move again. Well, here we are in the third week and unfortunately this has broke out and we're starting to see the tentacles of the story start reaching out to other parts of the world. And what I mean by that, it is no longer just a nitrogen phosphate, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz story. Now it's moved to natural gas. A lot of the world's natural gas flows to the Strait of Hormuz. And why is that important? India, for example, is the world's second largest producer of urea. A lot of their gas input for their domestic nitrogen production facilities comes from the Middle East. Their production rates are falling drastically because they don't have the input to produce produce that finished good. In fact, you're hearing stories about, you know, cooking gas being hard to come by and prices skyrocketing as they are. So you're seeing major global manufacturers starting to be impacted.

David Westin (22:32)

Linville says that even if the war were to end immediately, there would be a delay in getting fertilizer to the people who need it, like US farmers. And that delay comes at a critical moment.

Josh Linville (22:44)

It's timing. Take the US Market, for example. Our single biggest month for urea imports is the month of April. And you might be thinking, well, that's okay. We're not in April yet, right? We're middle of March. We still got time. But vessels don't just show up overnight. If somebody snaps a finger, they get a wish and everything is done. We can start loading vessels immediately. And the very first vessel is going to point to the US Market. It's going to take a couple days to fill that vessel and get it pushed back out to sea. And it's going to take about 30 days in total between loading and arriving to a US shore. And as of today, middle of March, that means the first vessel does not arrive until the middle of April. And then you take it further. That's just on the US Shore. For most farmers, that doesn't help you. Now you need to move that product from that shore into the inland market where the farmer get their hands on it. That's another two, three, four week process again, depending on where you are. So all of a sudden we're talking, we're in the middle of March. Those tons, if they were to ship today, don't arrive until the middle of May. And for most farmers out there, that's too late.

David Westin (23:47)

Given the pressure on farmers from the war and its effects on fertilizer. The question remains how to respond and what comes next. If I'm a row crop farmer somewhere in the Midwest, pick a state, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas. What are my options? Are there any ways for me to hedge at this point?

Josh Linville (24:07)

Point There are nola, Urea, UAN and DAP phosphate futures that the CME trades daily. That's a big part of what we do. But unfortunately those paper products, it's not going to help solve the supply situation that we are in today. Unfortunately, where we are with so little time between today and planting and basically moving on from planting into spraying, we're out of time.

David Westin (24:31)

With more time to plan, you farmers might change the crops they plant, moving away from those like corn that need nitrogen based fertilizer. But it's getting late in the season for that.

Christia Freeland (24:42)

They'll be getting scared. One of the things that is going to be particularly hard is the mix of costs of different fertilizers has an impact on what you should be seeding. And that, you know, this unexpected event makes that kind of planning for farmers really, really difficult. And you know, we are at the end of March. That's not a really good time to change your plans for what you're going to seed.

David Westin (25:14)

One solution might come from closer to home. Nitrogen based fertilizers like urea are not the only options available. US Farmers also rely heavily on fertilizers like potash, much of which comes from western Canada. Pam Schwan is the president of the Saskatchewan Mining Association.

Chase Bank Narrator (25:32)

Well, potash is one of the main fertilizers that's used to help make crops healthy and grow larger yields. So as the world grows to 10 billion people by 2050 on less arable land, we need to be able to grow crops more effectively and more efficiently that have higher crop yield. So potash is one of those three ingredients, along with phosphorus and nitrogen, that make crop yields much improved.

David Westin (25:58)

What is the role of potash in Canada's economy?

Chase Bank Narrator (26:01)

It's very significant, particularly in Saskatchewan. 100% of all the potash produced in Canada is produced in Saskatchewan. Very little is used in Canada and very little in Saskatchewan. So there's probably over 98% of what is produced in Canada and again, all in Saskatchewan is exported to global markets. So of that, about 50% goes into the United States to help farmers there grow, you know, corn, soybean and oats. And the rest is exported out to countries like China. India, Indonesia and Brazil are probably the main customers.

David Westin (26:36)

Fortunately for US Farmers and for Canada's miners. Canadian potash has been kept free from tariffs, something former Deputy Prime Minister Freeland considers wise for all concerned, two of

Christia Freeland (26:48)

the world's other leading potash producers after the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. So I'm going to offer a little Canadian editorial here, a particularly bad time to have a trade war with Canada. There are lots of reasons a trade war with Canada is a bad idea. You need Canadian aluminum, for example, for US Manufacturing. And aluminum is basically electricity in solid form. But the fact that Canada is such a major producer of potash is another good reason that we're a great trading partner.

David Westin (27:23)

Fertilizers like potash may be somewhat protected from the Iran war, but they're not a perfect substitute for those nitrogen based fertilizers coming through the Strait of Hormuz. And although prices of any commodity, including fertilizer, go up and down, for those who have spent their careers dealing with the fertilizer market, this time may truly be different. How does this compare with prior sort of crises, supply chain crises we've had?

Josh Linville (27:50)

It doesn't. This is brand new. We have never experienced anything like this in the fertilizer market. I've been at it for 24 years now. I've never seen anything like it.

David Westin (28:00)

Up next, affording your first house. It's getting harder and harder. We go to Australia and Singapore to take a look at two very different approaches.

IBM Narrator (28:13)

So there's a lot of noise about AI. But time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions, not noise problems. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

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Chase Bank Narrator (29:57)

the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level that makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business make more of what's Yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co.

David Westin (31:02)

This is a story about robbing Peter to pay Paul when it comes to buying a first house, people around the world are looking for some way to pay uncomfortably high prices. Earlier this year, while White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested Americans might dip into their 401k retirement funds. But this finding new ways to borrow really help first time homeowners. Or does it just drive prices even higher? We went to two countries with very different models to find out. Jordan Davies and Jeff Chee don't know each other. They've never met, but they have one thing in common. Both just bought their very first house. Davies, a lawyer in Melbourne, Chi, a sales worker in Singapore. And they followed very different paths to achieve their goal.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (31:49)

It's really hard when you know, you see people who are doctors who worked so hard, studied for 10 years and trying to think about well I don't have a home yet and I don't yet have a family and putting off key decisions or key stages like having families because it's so unaffordable to get a home in Australia. In the big cities in Australia, this is public housing from the HDB, our government. I bought it back in 2021, before it was built. At the point of time where we purchased this flat, we don't have to come up with a huge upfront of cash or money. All we need to get is probably 5% of the down payment to secure the unit. And then five years later where we collect our key, that's where we pay the remaining lump sum of 15% amounting to 20% down payment for us. I would say it's not difficult to buy a first home in Singapore, but

David Westin (32:57)

Singapore might be the outlier. In the United States, the median age of first home buyers has risen from 33 in 2020 to 40 in 2025. And while the OECD's home price to income ratio has edged lower since its 2022 peak, it remains near record highs. Housing affordability is a key issue.

Chase Bank Narrator (33:19)

Every American who wants to own a

Josh Linville (33:21)

home will be able to afford one.

David Westin (33:23)

So what can be done? President Trump has proposed extending the terms of mortgages from 30 to 50 years, lowering the monthly payments, but making homeowners pay more interest over a longer time. Another proposal from the White House to let buyers dip into their retirement funds is similar to a model found elsewhere around the world, including in Australia. Australia is among the countries where housing affordability is front and center, particularly in its biggest cities. Saul Eslake is the principal of Corinna Economic Advisory and and was previously chief economist at ANZ and Bank of America in Australia.

Saul Eslake (34:00)

The ratio of house prices across Australia to household disposable income per person aged 15 and over is now over 13 times. The median house price in Australia is a little over a million Australian dollars, or about US$700,000. That is more more than nine times average weekly earnings. You go back 30 years and house prices in Australia were about four times average weekly earnings. So housing affordability has deteriorated sharply, especially for younger Australians.

David Westin (34:43)

Australia has a mandatory 12% contribution to its 401k equivalent. And now let's pick take up to $50,000 from voluntary contributions made on top of that to put towards a home. And there were proposals to allow even greater withdrawals.

Saul Eslake (35:00)

At the last two elections, the right of centre parties in Australia, the Liberal and national parties, proposed to allow Australians to take up to 40% of their superannuation savings out to use in order to assist with the purchase of a home. My work showed, I think fairly clearly that that scheme would have added upward pressure to Housing prices wouldn't have helped those in the traditional first home buyer demographic because they don't actually have a lot of superannuation saved up to that point and would have lowered the amount of income they had in retirement, even after taking account of whatever savings in housing costs that might accrue to them by not having to rent through their working lives or in retirement. Now as it happened, of course the right of centre parties lost the last two elections, so they weren't in a position to implement that policy.

David Westin (36:01)

But Eslake says for all the policies governments throw at the problem, he's skeptical that they really want to to fix it.

Saul Eslake (36:07)

That Australian psyche has shifted from viewing housing as something that meets basic human needs for shelter and security and connection with the communities in which they live. Towards regarding housing as a vehicle for accumulating wealth. And a much higher proportion, close to 2/3 of Australian household wealth is tied up in residential real estate than in almost any other country in the world. So I found myself saying in recent years that the reason why Australia's housing affordability problem will probably never be solved by any deliberate actions by government is because politicians know that a majority of Australians don't actually want the problem to be solved by housing becoming cheaper.

David Westin (37:00)

It's a different story in Singapore, where it appears to be a genuine priority to make sure that everyone can own their own home.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (37:07)

So the way Singapore thinks about is it is the place to live.

David Westin (37:12)

Sumit Aggarwal is the professor of Economics and Real Estate at the National University of Singapore. He's not convinced that allowing access to retirement funds is such a bad idea.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (37:23)

So I think there are pros and cons of this. I mean, if you allow people to dip into their 401k to get into housing, not necessarily public housing in the us, but any kind of housing. On one hand, this could create inflation because now there is more money chasing same amount of housing prices will naturally go up. The other aspect is we will provide democratized housing. There are certain people, they just don't have the right amount of money for down payment and they are as a result renting and wasting their money. This will allow them to get into housing, consume housing, but also invest in the housing that will allow them to build long term wealth.

David Westin (38:04)

Singapore's model is vastly different. It requires employers and employees to make mandatory contributions to what it calls the Central Provident fund, that retirement fund.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (38:15)

They allow you to cash out some of it, some, especially if you're buying housing. So you can do it two ways. One is to cash out to Make a down payment for your house. Also for you're making your monthly housing payments.

David Westin (38:28)

Around 75% of Singapore's population lives in public housing.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (38:33)

So typically what happens is in most countries when they decide to provide public housing, they segment it to lower income or minority neighborhoods. So those neighborhoods then become also very crime prone or risk prone. In Singapore, they make public housing for around everybody. Public housing is all over the island, from the best neighborhoods to the fringe neighborhoods on the island.

David Westin (39:02)

Having public housing supply at the level of Singapore might not be replicable in other countries. But while Singapore makes it easier easier for people to get into their first home, it also makes it more difficult to buy a second.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (39:15)

In Singapore, there's something called an ABSD or additional buyer stamp duty. What that means is that if you're buying a second house in Singapore, you have to pay an additional buyer stamp duty of 30%. Okay? That's upfront. So this discourages homeowners to become investors or buy second or third properties. This democratizes housing and availability and also depresses pricing or doesn't grow house prices. Clearly this is a great idea that. Look, we don't want to discourage you from buying and investing in housing as an asset class, but we have to realize that housing is special. It's not just an investment, it's a consumption good.

David Westin (40:03)

If tapping into pools of capital like retirement funds just raises prices and taking real steps to lower those prices hurts those who already own their homes, is there any hope of solving the housing affordability crisis?

Saul Eslake (40:16)

The only way in which housing is going to get cheaper, I suspect, is if there is some kind of global financial upheaval that impacts the supply of credit. That in turn reduces people's capacity to pay what they currently pay for housing, and hence it becomes cheaper. But as I say, if that were to happen, there'd be enormous political pressure in this country on governments to do things to stop it happening.

David Westin (40:41)

So what does Jordan Davies think? He spent years saving for his first home in Melbourne. Now that he owns one, has his view changed?

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (40:49)

I think I bought into this property with a view that eventually property prices in Australia will need to equalize in one way or another. I bought this as a place that I knew that I'd be happy just living in at the cost that it costs, you know, relative to what, what I might need to pay to rent in, in Melbourne. So I, I didn't go into the purchase thinking I want this asset to, you know, significantly rise in value. I wouldn't like to see it plummet. That's for sure. So I'm of of the same mindset as I was before.

David Westin (41:26)

And what about in Singapore where the system favors buying one but only one home?

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (41:32)

I think that there are two different groups of people in Singapore. In my point of view, I belong to the one that I want to buy a few more properties, be it residential or commercial, to build a portfolio.

David Westin (41:49)

As governments around the world take on the housing of the affordability crisis, the question may not be which levers to pull, but who is the Peter we're borrowing from to pay off which Paul Coming up, what happens when the demand for specialty foods overwhelms global supply? We look at the growing passion for Matcha.

IBM Narrator (42:13)

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Chase Bank Narrator (43:56)

the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth with a widespread presence in communities across the country. Chase for business supports small business owners at a local level that makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business Make More of what's Yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co.

David Westin (45:04)

This is a story about globalization gone wrong. Social media has opened up new markets for Acai, ube, Matcha and Dubai Chocolate markets far from their countries of origin. But when demand spikes, it can show the limits of those long supply chains. Our colleague Scarlet Fu reports on what that means for your Matcha.

Chase Bank Narrator (45:29)

Whether you're browsing through a social media app or going to a grocery store, Matcha is everywhere. From Starbucks to Trader Joe's to budding Matcha Cafes. This is your sign to stop drinking coffee and start drinking Matcha.

Nicholas Burns (45:41)

It tastes so close to the original.

Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (45:43)

What?

Chase Bank Narrator (45:44)

As a current Harvard student, I finally understand the science behind why Matcha is so addicting. If you're going to make a Matcha, make a Matcha. Don't be cheap with it. Matcha is just one of several food trends gone viral thanks to social media from Acai.

Nicholas Burns (45:56)

And do I regret buying a three

David Westin (45:57)

gallon bucket of Acai?

Christia Freeland (45:58)

No.

Chase Bank Narrator (45:59)

To ube Will you be my UBE and Dubai Chocolate?

Sami Nussdorf (46:02)

I got some Dubai Chocolate.

IBM Narrator (46:03)

It's a light snack.

Chase Bank Narrator (46:04)

Social media driven food trends are reshaping demand faster than ever before.

Miguel Gomez (46:08)

It's unbelievable how fast a trendsetter, an influencer, can generate huge spikes in the demand for products.

Chase Bank Narrator (46:18)

Miguel Gomez is a Cornell University professor who teaches food marketing.

Miguel Gomez (46:23)

It is a challenge for the supply chain to meet that demand at that very moment. Because if you miss a supply chain, you miss the opportunity that there is huge interest in a product such as desserts. With ube. The question is, are farmers prepared to react as fast to these trends as they should to to meet the demand?

Chase Bank Narrator (46:50)

This is hardly the first time that food has gone global. Social media is just the latest innovation to fuel widespread demand for foods from around the world. This has actually been happening for hundreds of years.

Miguel Gomez (47:02)

The first inflection point in the globalization of food and crops dates to 400 years ago with maize and tomatoes being produced in the Americas being being exported to Europe and wheat and other grains being shipped from Europe to the Americas. But it was in the 1980s when the development of the containers for transportation really allowed many of the commodities to be really global. And then we have the latest trend that is driven by social media when

Chase Bank Narrator (47:40)

a trendy food takes off and goes global. Walk us through what typically happens on the supply side. Is there a specific sequence that takes

Miguel Gomez (47:48)

place when these products become truly global because of consumer demand in high income countries like the US, Europe, etc. This poses big opportunities but big challenges to the supply chains. For example, ube. There is a huge explosion of demand for use of Uber UBE because of the beautiful color in confectionery, in desserts, in restaurants, but also in the supermarkets. And UBE is native from the Philippines. But this demand is really putting demand is just exceeding what Filipino farmers are able to supply. Another thing that is happening with these products, because these markets are relatively small, these are very niche products, demand tends to shift dramatically. This means lots of risk for farmers because if you look at what has happened with products like UBE Matcha is that you see that the farm price for these commodities is very volatile because demand fluctuates so much and production is trying to catch up with that demand.

Chase Bank Narrator (49:03)

Matcha originated in China over a thousand years ago before migrating to Japan, which is now the world's Matcha capital. The drink itself is made from green tea leaves that have been ground into a fine powder. Rising demand has led to a dramatic increase in Japanese exports of matcha. A 25% jump to $244 million in 2024 from the previous year. And now you. China has overTaken Japan, supplying 60% of the world's Matcha.

Hana Habes (49:31)

We have seen incredibly strong growth on Matcha within the last like two years. And I've been doing this for 10 years. So I think the last two years there's been a real surge in the demand and awareness for Matcha.

Chase Bank Narrator (49:44)

Hana Habes is a Matcha pioneer in the us. She is CEO of Macha Full, a company she founded over a decade decade ago. Habes operates sales through her website and has seven storefronts in New York City.

Hana Habes (49:57)

I was actually working in the processed packaged food industry right out of college. I started to notice changes in my health consuming packaged foods every day and around the same time, after being in this very heavily Processed industry. I was introduced to Matcha, which was this incredibly clean, beautiful caffeine alternative to coffee that made me feel more sustained, more focused, more calm. And it really was that lightning bolt moment for me, that epiphany of I've got to do something with this. And at the time, Matcha really didn't have presence in the US. This was in 2012 when I kind of first took my sip of my life changing sip of matcha.

Chase Bank Narrator (50:41)

In 2023, the global matcha market was worth about $4 billion. That's half of its expected value by 2030. The US is an example of the surge in demand. According to research firm Niq, sales of matcha grew 86% in the last three years.

Hana Habes (50:57)

It's accelerated to a point that I think last year was almost unsustainable. We saw farmers having supply constraints and people, you know, online trying to figure out, you know, where to get their matcha and how to make sure, sure that they're not, you know, over consuming Matcha. So there was a heightened awareness of this supply chain issue around Matcha.

Chase Bank Narrator (51:19)

It's more than specialty matcha cafes. Dunkin Donuts offers a matcha latte. Starbucks reported a 40% year over year increase in matcha sales for the first quarter of 2025. And Blank Street Coffee sold so much Matcha that it ended up dropping coffee from its name.

Hana Habes (51:34)

So I think the interesting thing with Starbucks is they have actually had matcha on their menu. A form of matcha mixed with cane sugar. But they've had it on their menu for over 10 years. Even before I started Matcha Full Starbucks had what was called a green tea latte on their menu. It had matcha in it, but they didn't necessarily call it Matcha because I think at that point not many people knew what matcha was. And now they're really leaning into matcha.

Chase Bank Narrator (52:04)

Japan's matcha production tripled between 2010 and 2023. But even that failed to keep pace with demand. As matcha is added to desserts and smoothies, the matcha market is now cracking under the weight of all the demand. To make matters worse, last year farmers in Kyoto who supply a quarter of the world's tea used for matcha struggled after hot weather led to poor harvests.

Hana Habes (52:25)

It's a plant and I think it's important to remember that. And our farmers, we did see shortages on the matcha. So naturally we did see prices rise on matcha and we did experience some shortages.

Miguel Gomez (52:36)

What is happening is that the supply chain is procuring Matcha that is not following the standards that the Japanese employ to produce what they call Matcha. So what you see is a huge differences in the quality of match matcha produced in different origins. And that can create long term confusion in consumers or may affect the value of Matcha for the Japanese traditional growers. Right now, for example, India, South Korea, China, producing the product that we call Matcha, but with different standards. So what is happening is that Matcha, as we know as a Japanese ceremonial, very niche product, is becoming massified and is perhaps not of the same quality of the matcha that is produced in Japan.

Hana Habes (53:33)

With Matcha, quality does matter. And I think with the first harvest in Japan, it tends to be a little sweeter. It's traditionally what's coined as ceremonial matcha really meant for drinking as a tea, tea in a latte. So we're seeing the demand for ceremonial grade continue to rise, but the pricing for ceremonial grade also is more expensive. And so I think with the second harvest culinary grade Matcha, the pricing on that is a little more approachable. So I think there is a vast difference in quality and price point with Matcha. And we're seeing Matcha as a price price point is rising because the demand is growing, because harvests are down. We are just seeing the price points continue to rise on ceremonial and culinary grade. And I think consumers are aware of this, but we don't necessarily see it impacting our business in any way at this point.

Sami Nussdorf (54:30)

I think people are very particular about their matcha and I marketed this business well before we opened. So I taste tested 12 different matches on TikTok to see what the consumer wanted. And they were very excited about the Matcha that we selected.

Chase Bank Narrator (54:44)

Sami Nussdorf is the founder and CEO of Meadow Lane, a gourmet food market in the Tribeca neighborhood of New York. Okay, so this is something you knew coming in that you would have to offer to your clientele for sure. And did you think in terms of you need to offer other kinds of Matcha products, given how much interest there is in Matcha overall?

Sami Nussdorf (55:01)

I didn't think so. I wanted to make the the choice easy for the consumer. I think that people are stunned by too many options and we're stuck in this paradox of choice. I think that offering one and doing a lot of diligence on a product like Matcha makes it easier on the consumer. And it's like we've selected the best for them. I do think that a wealthier audience probably influences the masses into, you know, how can I treat Myself and foods being looked at as a status symbol right now. It's like these micro luxuries. Like a lot of people can't afford a Birkin, but they can afford a road lip gloss. And that is like an identifier as to, like, what you subscribe to and what's on trend. And these micro luxuries that you can afford, which is like, I guess similar to here. Like you might not be able to afford a $300 Michelin meal, but you can afford a, you know, organic, well made, nicely sourced, $23 salad.

Chase Bank Narrator (55:59)

Even though Sammy says he doesn't believe in selling trendy food products, Meadow Lane does respond to whatever food crazes his clientele is attracted to. Can a viral moment create demand faster than the supply can meet it?

Sami Nussdorf (56:11)

Yes, absolutely. I mean, as we saw with the opening, I think it was once the infatuation or eater, you know, came for press day and they tried certain menu items that we make here and they rated what their favorites were. That's what became very viral off the bat. And that shifts, you know, as with the. As the business progresses, whether coming from

Chase Bank Narrator (56:31)

Starbucks or a niche grocery store, the bottom line is it's important to understand your supply. What is the most misunderstood part about the globalization of niche foods? Trendy foods, Something that consumers get wrong about how supply chains work.

Miguel Gomez (56:48)

We consumers in general know very little about how these products are produced, who produces them, where, how, and how is that product coming to our tables, in our houses or in a restaurant? So I think what we need to do is to educate consumers.

David Westin (57:16)

That does it for us. Here at Wall Street Week, I'm David Westin. See you next week for more stories of capitalism.

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Jordan Davies / Jeff Chee (59:16)

Nice.

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