Wall Street Week – March 13, 2026 Episode Summary: "Soft US Jobs, Swedish Defense Spending, Private Credit Woes"

Overview

This episode of Wall Street Week, hosted by David Westin, explores several seismic changes in the world of capitalism: the softening U.S. job market, the surprising role of Sweden in the surge of European defense spending, and mounting concerns over private credit. The episode wraps up by revisiting Nepal’s social media-fueled revolution and its global resonance.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. The Softening US Jobs Market

   • Guests: Stephen Ratner (Chairman and CEO, Willett Advisors)
   • Focus: Declining job creation, productivity shifts, sectoral changes, immigration, and the anticipatory effect of AI on jobs.

   Timestamps & Details

   • [03:36] Softening has persisted beyond the last few months; "It's not a great thing obviously to have the unemployment rate going up ... None of that can be viewed as good." (Stephen Ratner)
   • [04:06] Despite GDP growth (2.5–3%), job creation lags; "Obviously just the simple math is when those two things happen, you get a productivity increase and that's a good thing." (Ratner)
   • [05:25] Health care dominates job creation: "On the one hand, [healthcare jobs] are perfectly good jobs ... but you could make an argument they're not really producing anything." (Ratner)
   • [06:14] Immigration impact is disputed: "It's very hard at the moment to see a lack of immigration as the reason ... CEOs ... are not saying it's hard to find people." (Ratner)
   • [07:10] AI’s anticipatory effect: "Companies are saying, we don't need to hire as many engineers this year because we're going to have AI doing more of this stuff." (Ratner)
   • [07:50] Labor market & investment: "When you have rising unemployment and rising inflation at the same time ... that's ... close to stagflation. And that is really bad for the market." (Ratner)
   • [08:44] Policy remedies: "Getting rid of the tariffs would certainly be a good start ... beyond that, I'm not sure in the short run there's that much we can do." (Ratner)
   • [09:23] Fed’s dilemma: "They have a dual mandate ... you can't necessarily do both things at the same time ... I think that may become one, it may become none before we're done." (Ratner, on potential rate cuts)

   Memorable Quote

   "Stagflation is the thing that all economists say we have to avoid." (David Westin, [08:31])

2. European Defense Spending & Sweden’s Outsized Role

   • Focus: Europe’s defense rearmament post-Ukraine war; Sweden’s defense manufacturing surge and its integration into NATO.

   Timestamps & Details

   • [15:25] Saab’s CEO Michael Johansson: "We have probably 4 to 5 folded output from like before the war started."
   • [16:32] Anders Vohr Rasmussen (Fmr. NATO Secretary General): "For too long we have relied on a combination of cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China and cheap security from the United States. That model doesn't work any longer."
   • [17:10] Jacob Kierkegaard (Bruegel): "Europe as a whole is not rearming ... there's a limited number of countries that rearm ... includes Germany, Poland ... a number of smaller countries, particularly in Scandinavia."
   • [18:58] Saab’s strategy: Continuous R&D investment, even when government funding waned; "We never dismantled ... we continuously invested more on our own ... to always be relevant." (Johansson)
   • [20:02] NATO membership’s effect: "All of a sudden ... we are involved in the common acquisitions that NATO is doing now ... we’re much more involved in understanding where NATO is going ... This is a big shift." (Johansson)
   • [22:34] Changing investor sentiment: "We were 45,000 shareholders before the war broke out and we are 300,000 shareholders as we speak. So it's been a big change in the perception." (Johansson)
   • [23:58] Swedish Finance Minister Svantisen: "We have 6% this year of GDP in different public investments ... and of course defence spending is one of the big investments."
   • [25:07] Institutional hesitation: "Direct funding ... from the EIB and other multilateral lenders to European defence is very limited." (Kierkegaard)

   Memorable Moment

   • [16:32] "Now we have to stand on our own feet. We need to shift gears. We will need to make Europe a defence superpower." (Compilation from Swedish, Danish, and European leaders)

3. Private Credit Woes: A Crowded and Opaque Market

   • Guests: Andrew Junkin (CIO, Virginia Retirement System), Marcy Frost (CEO, CalPERS), Dan Tarullo (Fmr. Fed Governor; Harvard Law)
   • Focus: Surge in private credit, retail vs institutional risks, liquidity and valuation concerns, and regulatory gaps.

   Timestamps & Details

   • [29:30] Junkin: "I get nervous anytime any particular strategy gets a little bit crowded ..."
   • [30:44] On returns: "Private credit has a little bit more credit risk ... but yield is higher. We’re expecting returns ... in the 7, 8, 9% over the long term." (Junkin)
   • [31:39] Regulatory alert: "We should be on yellow alert, not red alert ... banks aren't in some of these spaces, private credit moves in. It's not as though the banks are now totally out ... indirect exposure can be just as damaging as direct exposure." (Tarullo)
   • [34:07] Illiquidity: "If you're financing, you know, lending somebody $200 million on something and you want to sell 10% of it, who's going to do the credit work on such a small piece?" (Kathleen Griffith)
   • [34:38] Tarullo: "The information gaps we have aren't being plugged ... it's both the opaqueness of the valuations ... and the fact that the regulators are not helping the rest of us poke through that opacity and figure out exactly what is going on."
   • [35:30] Default rates: "The default rate has been lower than has been expected historically." (Junkin)
   • [36:07] Retail risk: "One of the biggest advantages ... has been that the capital is tied up ... retail investors just don't think in terms of long term investments and they can't get their money out ..." (Kathleen Griffith)
   • [37:51] Societal stakes: "If big institutions and very high net worth individuals lose money, but 401k plans start to lose money. ... there's going to be an inquiry or an inquisition that will follow this." (Griffith)
   • [38:41] Structure risk: "What I regard as the bigger risk right now ... is how much leverage is there totally in this system." (Tarullo)

   Notable Quote

   "We should be on yellow alert, not red alert." (Dan Tarullo, [31:39])

4. Nepal’s Social Media Revolution and "Gen Z Protests"

   • Focus: How grassroots activism, powered by social media, led to regime change in Nepal, and what it signals about youth protests worldwide.

   Timestamps & Details

   • [41:10] Prashamsa Subedi: "We plan to have a very small peaceful protest ... I will never stop posting ... It's fine even if I die."
   • [42:16] The viral spark: "It was 2024 when I started uploading the videos about my political opinion ... that's when it took off." (Subedi)
   • [43:14] The "Nepo babies" effect: Social media exposed lifestyles of the elite, stoking resentment over inequality of opportunities.
   • [44:10] Government crackdown: "Nepal has cracked down on a number of social media platforms ..."
   • [45:28] Escalation: "The very clip that ... ignited the fire ... was a 17-year-old getting shot on his head." (Subedi)
   • [46:36] Regime collapse: "On September 9, one day after the ... protests began, many of Nepal’s top leaders resigned."
   • [47:25] Youth called to govern: "The army invited us to sit down with them ... to talk on what to do next, what the future of the country should look like." (Kathleen Griffith)
   • [48:18] Thomas Carruthers: "The March 5 election in Nepal looks like a pivotal moment ... voters have delivered ... change."
   • [49:52] On global trend: "All these protests have a couple of things in common. Dominated by young people, leaderless ... nonviolent for the most part. ... Corruption is a big thing. Economic grievances are important ... general sense of underrepresentation." (Carruthers)

   Memorable Quote

   "It was like nobody told us we would be a country without a government." (Prashamsa Subedi, [46:36]) "I will never stop posting. It's fine even if I die." (Subedi, [41:18])

5. Other Themes and Memorable Segments

   • [11:35] Evolving safe havens: "The dollar is a safe haven ... Treasuries are more complicated because the war creates inflation and inflation is bad for Treasuries." (Ratner)
   • [16:18] Trump's pressure on NATO: "Now they're paying 5 as opposed to not paying 3." (Kathleen Griffith)
   • [22:34] Changing ESG perceptions for defense: "We had lots of discussions ... if this was a sustainable business, which was crazy ... Of course, you have to have professional and strong defence industries ... But that was a strange discussion..." (Johansson)
   • [49:39] Nepal’s new leader: "He tries to be a sort of technocratic activist ... good governance, transparency ... not coming for change from the left or right, but really from the middle out." (Carruthers)
   • [51:25] Iran’s contrast: "The young people of Iran stood up incredibly bravely ... were massacred by the thousands."

Episode Structure

• [02:38] Lead story: US jobs market softening (Stephen Ratner)
• [15:25] European defense ramp-up, Sweden’s emergence (with Michael Johansson & others)
• [28:50] Private credit’s fragility and risks (Junkin, Frost, Tarullo)
• [41:10] Nepal’s revolution: social media & Gen Z activism (Subedi, Lamican, Carruthers)
• [52:10] Closing

Conclusion

This episode offers a panoramic view of capitalism in motion. From the nuanced labor and productivity shifts in the U.S., a remarkable European defense revival led by Sweden, and the excitement and anxiety around private credit’s boom, to the contagious wave of youth-powered protest in Nepal, Wall Street Week brings clarity and sharp insight to a world in flux.

Notable Quotes (Quick Reference)

• "Stagflation is the thing that all economists say we have to avoid." (David Westin, [08:31])
• "We should be on yellow alert, not red alert." (Dan Tarullo, [31:39])
• "I will never stop posting. It's fine even if I die." (Prashamsa Subedi, [41:18])
• "It was like nobody told us we would be a country without a government." (Subedi, [46:36])
• "For too long we have relied on ... cheap security from the United States. That model doesn't work any longer." (Rasmussen/Johansson/Griffith, [16:32])

Listeners seeking a deeper understanding of current shifts in economics, geopolitics, and political movements will find this episode both compelling and essential.