We Fixed It. You're Welcome.

Super Bowl Commercials – Do They Really Work?

Gamut Podcast Network | Released: February 10, 2026

Episode Overview

This lively roundtable episode tackles one of the most hotly-debated topics in advertising: Are Super Bowl commercials truly worth their astronomical price tags? The panel, bolstered by advertising veteran Annika Kobzev and, in the post-game segment, agency strategist Emilia Renshaw, weighs the strategic, creative, and emotional factors behind investing $8–$10 million for 30 seconds of airtime. The discussion is split into a pre-game exploration of industry principles and pitfalls, and a fast-paced post-show recapping the best and worst ads from the 2026 Super Bowl.

Key Panelists & Guests

• Aaron (Host)
• Melissa (Co-host)
• Chino (Co-host)
• Annika Kobzev (Founder & Principal, Throughline Advisory; ex-McCann, TBWA; Super Bowl ad veteran)
• Emilia Renshaw (Post-show guest; Head of Strategy, Lucky Generals New York)

Part 1: The Big Picture – Are Super Bowl Ads Worth It?

The Stakes: Super Bowl Ads by the Numbers

• In 2026, 30 seconds cost $8–10 million, not counting production or talent. Full campaigns can run $15–$30 million. [01:15, 04:32]
• Annika: "It is the one time of the year people really want to talk about advertising... the single biggest moment of awareness that can be created in the global media calendar." [03:28]

Why Brands Gamble

• The Super Bowl is one of the last remaining “everybody in the room” moments: over 100 million viewers, real-time, no skipping ads. [04:32]
• Super Bowl ads have become a cultural ritual: ranked, rewatched, memed, and widely discussed. [04:32]

The Risks & Rewards

• Massive exposure can produce storybook wins (Dunkin’s Affleck campaign, T-Mobile’s supercharged engagement), but missteps can haunt brands (e.g., FTX’s high-profile crypto implosion). [04:32]
• MELISSA: "A meaningful chunk of Super Bowl spend is inefficient. Too much money in for too little lasting business out... The league and the networks have a sure thing. The advertisers are the ones gambling." [04:32]

Deciding to Play: Is the Super Bowl the Right Move?

Internal Readiness

• Annika: "Are you ready to go big? Is your brand prepared to live up to the moment and the opportunities that come from the single biggest moment of awareness?" [09:55]
• Ensuring operational readiness: If the ad’s spike crashes your systems or your service fails, you can destroy value, not create it. [11:55]

Alignment and Authenticity

• The best Super Bowl ads fit the brand—when there’s not full alignment, no amount of celebrity flash can save a message that doesn't tie back to the business. [12:18–13:17]
• Chino: “If the ad isn’t great... it’s going to be forgotten about. If it’s not true to your brand, wasn’t worth it.” [13:29]

Motives: Instinct, Ego, or Strategy?

• Aaron raises how decisions sometimes emerge less from business logic and more from CEO/CMO pride or agency persuasion. [15:34]
• Annika: "Any smart corporate leader... is going to look at the business rationale because honestly, it’s just too expensive to not do that." [16:41]

Success Stories & “Best-in-Class” Examples

2026 Standout: Rocket Mortgage & Redfin ft. Lady Gaga

• Business case: Rocket’s 2025 acquisition of Redfin was little-known; their Super Bowl ad (with Lady Gaga’s “Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” cover) made this connection clear for millions—timed for maximum impact. [16:41–20:58]
• Annika applauds the A+ execution: "They had a big corporate town hall where they screened this ad... their entire employee base [got] the inside track on why they made this decision." [16:41]

The Cautionary Tales

• Super Bowl spots can be disastrous for fragile or unproven businesses—see the graveyard of DTC and crypto collapse. [20:58]
• Example: Temu’s six repetitive, poorly-received spots built awareness but annoyed viewers and failed to convert long-term. [27:42]

Building a Super Bowl-Ready Campaign

Keys to Success

• Holistic Planning: The ROI of a Super Bowl ad improves if it’s the centerpiece of a larger, sustained campaign. [34:16]
• Creative Boldness: "Go big... the things that survive in culture break the Super Bowl playbook." – Annika [48:47]
• Internal Alignment: Explain/tie the rationale to employee morale, especially if there have been layoffs or spending cuts. [22:53]
• Brand Fit: Know who you are, why you’re there; don’t try to stretch into inauthentic territory, or chase fleeting trends. [33:26]
• Timing and Trends: Think about the programming landscape, sequencing of competitors, and culturally relevant moments. [26:27, 38:24]
• Test and Iterate: Pre-test with internal/external audiences; make sure it can carry in varied contexts. [49:45]

Measuring ROI: Hard Metrics and Soft Power

• Annika: "Every brand will be different... there are some measures... sheer brand awareness... but you have to look at it in the context of a larger holistic marketing program.” [34:16]
• Aaron: For some, “it’s point-of-purchase sales the next day,” but for others, it's about “halo effect,” brand elevation, and staying top of mind. [36:11]

Key Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Annika: “If you’re not ready to step up for that, then you know what, sit it out. And maybe next year is your year.” [09:55]
• Melissa: “Make the Super Bowl ad the center of a larger campaign… not just a 30-second event.” [53:16]
• Chino: “Take the emotions out of it... You’re never gonna have as many eyeballs as you will on that moment. So make it count.” [54:41]

Part 2: Post-Game Analysis – The Best & Worst of 2026 Super Bowl Ads

Major Themes & Trends (59:05–61:09)

• Huge presence for AI brands and sports betting.
• Celebrity casts are still everywhere, but fewer “emotional anchor” ads—though those that aired hit hard (e.g., Lays, Rocket Mortgage/Redfin).
• Lay’s “Potato Farmer Retirement” ad aimed to remind viewers chips start as potatoes, addressing consumer disconnect. [61:12]

Winners: Standouts Called Out by the Panel

AI Brands

• Claude: “They really won the pregame... poking at their biggest competitor... by taking a bold creative move as a challenger brand.” – Annika [62:55]
• OpenAI/Codex: Humanizing AI, framing it as a partner, not a threat. [63:58]

Emotional/Storytelling Ads

• Lays: “That was emotionally resonant, really cut through. I had friends on a text chat... it was beautiful.” – Annika [80:23]
• Universal Orlando (developed by guest Emilia Renshaw): A moving “little bro” narrative—simple, direct storytelling that stood out. [81:01]

Humor & Recall

• Coinbase: The “karaoke” text-on-screen Backstreet Boys ad, polarizing but “brilliant” for stopping viewers and sparking buzz—though some question its long-term impact. [84:34]

Mixed Reviews & Fails

Overused Celebrities & Trends

• “Celebrity Soup” ads often felt forced or arbitrary; best executions linked the star authentically to the brand (e.g. TurboTax with Adrien Brody). [74:32, 73:42]
• Multiple brands using the same song or reference (e.g., Backstreet Boys) led to confusion and meme fatigue. [85:17]

Flawed Message or Operational Execution

• AI.com: “Go claim your domain” ad crashed the site under traffic—a live example of operational miscalculation. [67:21]
• Hims & Hers: Strong message about the 1%, but panel found the brand mismatched to the tone. [89:45]

Notable Quotes

• Melissa [on brand alignment]: “You can absolutely destroy value if this spike hits your operating systems, your teams, your app, whatever it might be, and it crashes and you’re not able to live up to the promise...” [11:55]
• Emilia (on using “negative” messaging): “Spending most of your time... talking about your competitor to reframe who you are can sometimes land poorly... Make sure your message is simple, understandable, and people know who it’s for.” [68:34]
• Annika [about humor]: “There’s a time for humor but a really well placed emotional ad... can really land and stand out.” [78:05]
• Chino [on the creative mandate]: “Make it strategic, take the emotions out… but don’t be afraid to be bold… You’re never gonna have as many eyeballs as you will on that moment, so make it count.” [54:41]

Key Segments & Timestamps

• [01:15] – Cost of entry, the communal ritual, panel introductions
• [04:32] – How Super Bowl media spending got so big
• [09:55] – How to decide if your brand should do a Super Bowl ad
• [16:41] – Case study: Rocket Mortgage/Redfin’s Lady Gaga moment
• [27:42] – Example of what not to do (Temu's six identical ads)
• [34:16] – What does ROI on a Super Bowl ad actually mean?
• [53:15] – Summary “Did We Fix It?” & actionable guidelines
• [59:05–68:24] – Post-show: This year’s themes, best ads, emotional & creative standouts
• [84:34] – Marketer vs. civilian reactions to Coinbase’s karaoke spot
• [89:45] – Tone and brand fit: when strong messages miss the mark
• [96:20] – Final thoughts & wish lists for next year

Actionable Takeaways / “We Fixed It” Playbook

1. Don’t buy a Super Bowl ad unless your entire business is ready—ops, product, support, and internal comms included.
2. Only run the ad if you have an authentic, differentiated message that fits your brand’s life cycle and current health.
3. Make the Super Bowl ad the centerpiece of an intentional, multi-layered campaign—not just a 30-second event.
4. Plan for the creative context: what’s running before/after? Is your ad distinct in tone or trend fatigue?
5. Test internally; build employee buy-in to maximize ROI and avoid culture-killing missteps.
6. Define a realistic ROI. Recognize whether you’re optimizing for brand awareness, sales, customer acquisition, or simply defending market position.
7. Be bold—but back it up with operational readiness and a clear path from ad to brand recall to conversion (consider smart uses of call-to-action, data collection, interactive elements if appropriate).

Final Words

• Annika: “We fixed it. Companies need to take a hard look at themselves and really ask... is this the right moment for us? Are we ready to play?” [55:50]
• Chino: “If you can check yes to all these precursor questions—go for it. Do it next year.” [54:41]
• Emilia: “Being clear, being simple, using this as a moment to entertain and leave people with one thought about your brand... will free everyone up to make these fun again and simple." [96:20]

For more, follow Annika Kobzev and Emilia Renshaw on LinkedIn. Stay tuned to Lucky Generals and the Gamut Podcast Network for future episodes.

(Note: Timestamps marked in MM:SS are approximate for major segment starts.)