Podcast Summary: BTC253 – Quantum Computing and Bitcoin w/ Charles Edwards

Podcast: We Study Billionaires – The Investor’s Podcast Network
Series: Bitcoin Fundamentals
Host: Preston Pysh
Guest: Charles Edwards
Date: November 12, 2025
Episode theme: An exploration of the rapidly progressing field of quantum computing, what it means for Bitcoin security, the potential timeline for “Q Day” (the moment quantum computers threaten current cryptography), how the Bitcoin network might respond, and broader impacts on technology and finance.

Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation between host Preston Pysh and quantum/Bitcoin investor Charles Edwards. The discussion demystifies quantum computing for a broad audience, lays out its implications for cryptography and Bitcoin, and urges the Bitcoin community to seriously address looming threats through proactive technical upgrades. The tone is urgent yet measured, with both participants emphasizing the need for hard, sometimes inconvenient conversations within the Bitcoin ecosystem to stay ahead of quantum risk.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What is Quantum Computing? (02:27)

• Charles’s Layman Explanation:
  Traditional computers run on bits (1s and 0s). Quantum computers use qubits, which can be in multiple states at once due to quantum superposition. Qubits can become entangled, and their probabilistic interference enables quantum computers to solve problems—like searching vast numbers of possibilities—astronomically faster than classical computers.

  “It gets exciting at the industry level—solving models and functions that were considered unsolvable years ago ... Things get weird at the quantum level.” — Charles (02:27)

• Current & Future Use Cases:
  Drug discovery, material science, logistical optimization, financial modeling, AI acceleration, and cryptography.

• Quantum Adoption Status:
  While still nascent, quantum computing is being used in areas like protein folding and financial optimizations. The analogy is made to early versions of AI—what is unimpressive now might soon become groundbreaking.

  “Quantum is still like a really basic iteration ... already proven use cases and it’s on that adoption hockey stick.” — Charles (04:03)

2. Technical Foundations & Bottlenecks (06:55)

• Superposition, Entanglement, and Interference:
  These phenomena allow qubits to represent and process vastly more information than classical bits. Imagine solving complex equations instantaneously via quantum interference.

• Physical vs. Logical Qubits:
  Most publicized “qubit” counts refer to physical qubits, which are error-prone due to ‘noise’ (environmental disruption, heat, vibration). Logical qubits, which are error-corrected, are the real measure of computational power. Current logical qubit counts lag far behind physical ones.

  “People say, ‘Oh, you need millions of qubits to break Bitcoin.’ Actually, it’s a much smaller number at a logical qubit level.” — Charles (08:38)

• Error Correction & Timeline Uncertainty:
  Error rates are dropping, and as more qubits are added, error correction is improving exponentially—creating uncertainty and divergence in timeline predictions (“bullish” vs “bearish” timelines).

  “The number of qubits is doubling about every 18 months—faster than Moore’s law ... Each year, you see lower error rates.” — Charles (11:52)

3. The Debate: How Soon is “Q Day”? (11:52)

• What is Q Day?
  The hypothetical moment a quantum computer can break current standard encryption, like ECDSA (elliptic curve digital signature algorithm) used by Bitcoin.

• Estimates Range:

  • US Department of Defense: tangible risk within 3 years.
  • Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp: 50% risk in 4–9 years.
  • PhD in quantum physics Pierre-Luc: 2–6 years.
  • McKinsey: Q Day (for RSA) in 2–10 years; Bitcoin’s ECC is weaker, so at more risk.
  • Microsoft/IonQ/Meta paper: ~2,330 logical qubits needed to break Bitcoin’s ECC; capability could exist in 4–5 years.

  “All these time frames converge in the two to nine year bracket with very high probability in the four to five year bracket ... That’s why I talk about having until 2027–2029 to solve this risk for Bitcoin.” — Charles (11:52)

• Community Response:
  Two main issues for Bitcoin:

  1. Upgrading the network’s cryptography to a quantum-proof system.
  2. Deciding how to handle “lost” coins and old/exposed address types that cannot be migrated.

4. Counterpoints & Pushback (19:12)

• Preston’s Pushback:
  Many timeline estimates come from those with financial incentives to promote urgency (funding, lab progress, etc.). Leading companies (e.g., IBM, Microsoft) project more modest milestones (e.g., 200 logical qubits by 2029).

• Charles’s Counter:
  A handful of smaller, cutting-edge firms (IonQ, Psi Quantum, OQC) report more aggressive projections—thousands of logical qubits within 4–6 years. Chinese investment is massive and opaque, potentially leading to breakthroughs that are not immediately publicized.

  “There are about 60 firms working on quantum ... China is spending double the US ... their latest quantum machine was a million times more powerful than Google’s.” — Charles (23:29)

• AI/Quantum Interplay:
  Advances in AI could help quantum calibration and error correction—potentially creating unforeseen accelerants to development.

  “AI is helping to calibrate and speed up quantum machine development ... they’re really interdependent and grow off each other.” — Charles (26:22)

5. How Does Quantum Threaten Bitcoin? (29:38)

• Key Exposure:
  Approximately 25% of all BTC is currently in vulnerable P2PK (pay to public key) addresses, e.g., Satoshi’s coins and early wallets. The remaining ~75% is in addresses (P2PKH and beyond) with an extra hash layer, offering some quantum resistance (but only until those coins are moved).

  “25% of the Bitcoin ... are in this key type, which makes it vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm if a quantum computer of sufficient size existed.” — Preston (31:09)

• Migration Bottleneck:
  Even after consensus, network throughput (block size/transaction limits) restricts how quickly keys can be rotated/migrated to a quantum-safe protocol—possibly a 1 to 5 year process, depending on block size and transaction volume.

  “If the migration time is five years, I think we’re done ... we’re not going to get agreement for at least a year. That’s why we need to be talking about it and ... make sure the timeline is achievable.” — Charles (44:04)

• Community Inertia & Drama:
  Resistance to discussing or prioritizing this risk is strong—partly from discomfort, partly from the complexity and history of ‘false alarms.’

  “It’s inconvenient ... that’s where you need to be focusing your attention ... the rigor and attention [on BIP360] has been neglected.” — Preston (42:36)

6. Possible Solutions: BIP360 and Beyond (32:16)

• BIP360 Proposal:
  A soft-fork protocol upgrade that introduces post-quantum secure cryptographic signature schemes (like lattice-based cryptography). Old nodes could continue operating, but users would be incentivized to migrate for safety.

  “There’s BIP360. Beast Hunter was the main author ... as a soft fork to Bitcoin, meaning nodes that are running the older software ... there’s no issue.” — Preston (32:16)

• Migration Realities:
  Even in the best-case scenario, full migration would be lengthy, potentially contentious (block size wars revisited), and logistically complex.

7. Broader Themes: Innovation, Investing, and Institutional Response (49:40)

• Quantum as Investment Opportunity:
  Revenue in quantum tech is doubling yearly—but is still small and mostly speculative. Use cases for quantum hardware (drug discovery, logistics, security) are emerging but limited. The payoff could be enormous for whoever crosses the “quantum threshold” first.

  “If a quantum firm could take 100 billion of Satoshi’s coins, that would fund all of quantum development for the last decade ... that’s the kind of level of value that’s coming.” — Charles (50:38)

• Competitive Moats:
  Cross-pollination of knowledge, especially with state actors such as China, make competitive advantages fickle—no one can be certain which particular company/technology will break through first.

• Analogy to AI and Early Bitcoin:
  The pattern—mainstream dismissal, rapid exponential development, then mass adoption—has played out before, with AI and with Bitcoin itself.

  “Reminds me of how everyone else thought about Bitcoin five to ten years ago ... You have to do the work ... Putting together the analysis from experts.” — Charles (47:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On what makes the quantum threat unique:

“Bitcoin is the number one asset class on the chopping block ... biggest honey pot, nearest front edge risk horizon.” — Charles (50:38)

On urgency for Bitcoin:

“If we’re one minute too late on upgrading this ... I think the whole trust system of network collapses. It’s hard to gain trust and easily lost.” — Charles (36:20)

On quantum/AI synergy:

“Ultimately, quantum will help speed up different processes for AI ... They really kind of interdependent and kind of grow off each other.” — Charles (26:22)

On the difficulty of community action:

“We need to bring light to this and create conversation ... It’s not clear to me where we all converge to solve this.” — Charles (44:04)

Important Timestamps

• Intro & episode overview: 00:00–01:32
• Layman’s quantum computing explainer: 02:27–06:16
• Superposition, entanglement, analogy to math: 06:55–08:38
• Physical vs logical qubits, error correction: 08:38–09:48
• Progress, timelines, Q Day debate: 11:52–15:26
• Pushback, incentives and state secrecy: 19:12–23:19
• China’s role and funding: 23:29
• AI/Quantum feedback loop: 25:47–26:58
• Bitcoin key types and vulnerabilities: 29:38–31:11
• Migration issues, block size drama: 40:34–44:06
• Call to urgent community action: 43:24–45:48
• Quantum investing and business impacts: 49:40–55:41
• Tech adoption analogy (AI/Bitcoin): 47:56
• Call to action/conclusion: 57:22–58:18

Conclusion & Final Thoughts

Charles Edwards and Preston Pysh agree: quantum computing is moving far faster than the general public—and the Bitcoin community—realize. Bitcoin faces a genuine and likely near-term threat from quantum advances; mitigation requires public discussion, consensus, and timely action. The episode serves as both a primer on quantum risk and a rallying cry: the time to plan Bitcoin’s quantum upgrade is now, not after the first coins are lost.

“You present the facts as they exist. We both acknowledge we don’t know the timeline, but to sit here and act like it’s not going to happen I think is the fool’s errand.” — Preston (57:22)

For Further Learning:

• BIP360 Proposal
• Investment Index for Quantum Companies (as developed by Charles)
• Public research and papers referenced (US DoD, McKinsey, Microsoft/IonQ/Meta, etc.)

Links, slides, and a more granular breakdown are mentioned as available in the show notes at theinvestorspodcast.com.