We Study Billionaires – Bitcoin Mastermind Q1 2026

Host: Preston Pysh

Guests: Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, American HODL

Date: January 14, 2026
Episode: BTC257

Episode Overview

This quarterly "Bitcoin Mastermind" episode features Preston Pysh in conversation with regulars Jeff Ross, Joe Carlasare, and American HODL. The group delivers a high-energy roundtable dissecting geopolitical shifts—especially the recent US military operation in Venezuela, the outlook for Taiwan and semiconductor supply chains, the global implications of AI and robotics, and their economic and societal impact. They conclude with deep dives into recent US legislation influencing Bitcoin and stablecoins, and market analysis with predictions for Bitcoin's next moves.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela, Global Power Shifts, and US Hegemony

• Venezuela Raid as a Watershed Event

  • The surprise US military raid leading to the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro is presented as potentially game-changing.
  • American HODL: “Kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro was a total global reordering overnight ... It answered a lot of questions to me … Is BRICS dead?” (01:50)
  • Jeff questions: Is this the US reviving the Monroe Doctrine—securing dominance over the Western Hemisphere?
  • Jeff speculates that global spheres of influence may now be unofficially agreed among world powers, with the US focusing on Central/South America, Russia on Western expansion, and China on the Middle East & Taiwan.
  • Carlasare is more cautious, warning that regime change often fails to deliver stability: “Who is going to actually function in the government [in Venezuela]? ... We're relying on them as the interim government to maintain order and we are implicitly validating their authority.” (08:17)
  • The group stresses this is a pivotal moment, but that downstream consequences (as with Iraq) remain uncertain.

• Venezuela and Petrodollar Enforcement

  • Preston reads Luke Gromen’s framing: "[Venezuela is] just further enforcement or attempted enforcement of the petrodollar system." (12:10)
  • American HODL connects the dots: "Every one of [the US's] enemies are denominating oil exports in something other than dollars ... and that's, lo and behold, the enemy of the United States." (13:41)

2. Taiwan, Semiconductors, and China’s Moves

• Concern is high over the strategic importance of Taiwanese chip fabs.
  • “What is the new oil of the 21st century? It’s chips. Chips are the new oil.” — American HODL (06:35)
  • The US is scrambling to build fabs at home, but delivery timelines for weapons to Taiwan curiously align with China’s public 2027 timeline for a potential invasion.
  • Split opinions emerge: Jeff thinks the US may cede Taiwan after extracting intellectual property and talent, while HODL sees US military prowess (evidenced in Venezuela) deterring a near-term Chinese move.

3. AI, Robotics, Deflation, and Economic Paradigms

• Preston plays a notable Elon Musk and Peter Diamandis clip discussing the coming “age of abundance”:
  • “If we don’t have AI and robots, we’re all going to go bankrupt and we’re headed for economic doom.” — Elon Musk (24:13)
  • Musk predicts governments will have “to print to offset all of this technological deflation,” flipping the usual inflation worries—“They won’t be able to waste the money fast enough, which is saying something.” (27:21)
  • The panel debates whether this spells the end of capitalism, a surge in idleness (“Idle hands … leads to political revolution”—American HODL, 29:47), or just another tech revolution that retools the labor market rather than abolishes it.
  • Concerns about “AI slop” (low-quality, mass-generated content) and the challenge of disinformation come up.
  • Joe Carlasare is skeptical of Musk’s timelines: “His notions and predictions regarding timing are probably some of the worst of any technological innovator.” (31:08)
  • Jeff Ross highlights the growing, but still limited, adoption: “In the global north, … working age population that are using AI has increased from 22.9% to 24.7% ... the UAE has about 64%.” (36:24)

4. Monetary Policy, Petrodollar, and Stablecoins

• The Clarity Act, Congress’s crypto legislation, is in focus.
  • Joe Carlasare: “I think the odds are better than 65%, 70% that we get [the Clarity Act] through.” (52:20)
  • There are fierce banking sector objections to stablecoin yields—and whether banks or stablecoin users will benefit from T-bill returns.
  • Jeff Ross: “Assuming these stablecoins attract lots of interest … the government can basically force a lower T-bill rate onto these stablecoin holders. … I’m really surprised that hasn’t happened yet.” (55:57)

5. Bitcoin, Gold & Macro Markets

• Market sentiment is divided as gold and silver outperform, while Bitcoin "grinds sideways."
  • Jeff’s key framework: The S&P 500 priced in gold signals a major secular turn from financial assets to hard assets. “I think we might be talking about this still in 2030 or later, where gold … outperforms US stocks by a wide margin.” (66:15)
  • Joe: “If you make a new all time high, all that myth [about the 4-year BTC cycle] is shattered once and for all. … I think ... this year.” (68:47)
  • Jeff forecasts Bitcoin won’t drop below $50K or above $700K in 2026, with an average price of $145K. (80:43)
  • HODL, once a cycle maximalist, now agrees: “It probably never was real. But it’s certainly dead now.” (82:08)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On American Military Power:
  “I almost look at every other army in the world as being like guys that LARP at the gun range … Meanwhile, our guys are hardened warriors who have the best tech on earth.” — American HODL (07:15)
• On Stability after Regime Change:
  “History has taught us ... the shock and awe campaign led to a massive 10-year boondoggle which cost countless American lives and civilian lives.” — Joe Carlasare (08:17)
• On AI & Economic Models:
  “Capitalism is the best system for humanity ... but when we reach a point where AI and robots can do everything … you don't want to be in a capitalist system at that point.” — Jeff Ross (28:15)
  “You can’t have idleness in a population … the devil makes work for idle hands. ... So I think … you’re still going to need human beings ... to certify [AI output].” — American HODL (29:47)
• On Bitcoin’s Frustrating Pause:
  “It seems like it’s decoupled from risk-on assets. … I think that’s where a lot of people are having frustration, including myself.” — Preston Pysh (68:52)
• On Deflation and Fiat Illusion:
  “Getting stuff cheaper is awesome for people, it's not good for government. So if you have a credit-based fiat currency system, deflation is actually your worst nightmare." — Jeff Ross (50:34)

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Time | |----------------------------------------------|----------| | Venezuela raid & geopolitical order | 01:50 – 14:00 | | Petrodollar enforcement & oil politics | 12:10 – 14:13 | | Taiwan, China, semiconductors debate | 05:01 – 08:13 | | Musk & Diamandis AI/deflation clip | 23:16 – 28:08 | | Panel’s reaction to AI, labor, tech change | 28:09 – 34:48 | | Bitcoin & gold: Why is BTC lagging? | 65:20 – 74:24 | | US productivity boom/AI data discussion | 79:09 – 80:36 | | Bitcoin price predictions | 80:43 – 82:41 | | HODL’s live AI-generated song outro | 82:41 – 83:58 |

Tone & Atmosphere

The episode is lively, banter-filled, and sometimes conspiratorial—as they challenge each other on geopolitics, poke fun at “tinfoil hat” theories, and riff about AI slop, meme content, and the merits of giving politicians AI-generated songs as gifts. There’s genuine expertise and camaraderie guiding often complex and fast-evolving topics.

Episode Summary Table of Contents

• Intro and Venezuela Event (01:23-14:14)
  • Immediate implications and geopolitical theories
• Semiconductors, Taiwan & US–China Strategy (05:01–14:39)
• Petrodollar, Oil, and Economic Order (12:10–14:13)
• AI & the Age of Abundance (23:16–34:48)
  • Elon Musk’s views; risk of idleness; impact on professional classes
• AI's Effects on White-Collar Work (44:41–48:48)
• Bitcoin, Gold, and Macro Markets (65:20–75:03)
• Legislation: The Clarity Act & Stablecoins (52:13–59:06)
• US Productivity and Economic Expansion (79:09–80:36)
• Predictions for Bitcoin & Investing Strategy (80:43–82:41)
• Closing: AI Song and Panel Reflections (82:41 – end)

For listeners seeking a masterclass in how macro, technology, and geopolitics collide with Bitcoin and investing, this episode delivers a thorough—and at times irreverent—exploration of where the world may be heading by 2027 and beyond.