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BTC258: Clarity Act, Bitcoin AI Education, and Payments w/ Parker Lewis (Bitcoin Podcast)
01:00:35
Parker and Preston dissect the Clarity Act's impact on Bitcoin, explore the AI-Bitcoin energy dynamic, and reveal why Bitcoin’s binary success path may define future economic stability.
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- [00:01]
Preston P. Foreign
You're listening to tip.
- [00:03]
Hey everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. On today's show, I sit down with Parker Lewis, author of Gradually, Then Suddenly and one of the sharpest minds in bitcoin. We dig into his latest thesis, why bitcoin has the greatest asymmetry in the world today and break down the three pillars that make it unlike any other opportunity. Parker explains why bitcoin's success is binary. How his ribeye index is showing 72% inflation since 2020 and why the current financial system everyone to become a speculator just to preserve what they've already earned. We also talk about the Clarity Act. Texas becoming the first state to actually buy Bitcoin for its reserve and why Parker believes water moves downhill. Meaning bitcoin adoption isn't a question of if, but when. This one's packed, so let's get into it.
- [00:54]
Celebrating 10 years, you are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston P. Foreign.
- [01:12]
Hey everyone, welcome to the show. I'm here with the one and only Parker Lewis. Welcome back, Preston.
- [01:17]
Parker Lewis
Good to be back. Appreciate you having me on.
- [01:19]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, always a pleasure to chat. I'm curious, just kind of starting off your thoughts on this Clarity act and just the regulatory landscape that's currently playing out. It's pretty interesting.
- [01:31]
Parker Lewis
Yeah, it is. I've been paying attention to the Clarity Act. I wouldn't say necessarily from afar, but I haven't been actively engaged. And then two nights ago saw some information coming out about it and then started digging into the things that matter most to bitcoin and honestly some say I'm disappointed. I'm not surprised. I think that it's underwhelming and that for different reasons that Brian Armstrong thinks that it's a bad bill. Bitcoin, it's a bad bill. I think the language around protection of developers is particularly weak as well as the language around self custody as well. I think that in its totality a fairly. There's not a lot that comes good from it is what I would say. I think that it puts a lot of hooks in the side of privacy in terms of what's required of entities that would be delivering software that aren't financial institutions. And then I think there's some dubious language around the specific language that's trying to quote, protect software developers.
- [02:30]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, I love those points because those aren't the points that I think the mainstream is really talking about. One of the contra points that I found really interesting from just big banking lobbying. And that seems to be where a lot of the things that have been added into this behemoth, you know, act. This is huge. The amount of information in this and the amount of competing interests that are in this that got their hands into it. I want to read this from somebody online and they're talking about the stablecoin yield piece that it seems like Wall street is mostly. The big banks on Wall street are mostly concerned with in the bill. And he wrote 53 banking associations just wrote themselves a $6.6 trillion protection bill. They called it the Clarity Act. And he's getting at the idea that the banks are by law not going to pay any of the interest for what they're securitizing the dollar stablecoins with, which is just like you had mentioned, you were talking about something completely different. There's so many different things in this bill that are huge. And as we saw yesterday, the markup that was supposed to happen at the Senate got delayed because mostly it seems like because Brian Armstrong said he doesn't support it anymore. For people that don't know Brian Armstrong, the CEO and one of the founders there at Coinbase.
- [03:45]
Parker Lewis
Yeah. The day before that I actually was talking with a few friends saying that the bitcoin lobby should pull out and say that they don't support this to get better protections. And then for a different reason Brian Armstrong pulled out. But that's the way to get what you want is to be willing to walk away from the table and to say no. And another commentary that I'd have at the broadest level, I don't think that it serves bitcoin. And I'm not talking about special interests in bitcoin. I'm talking about Americans rights to access bitcoin. To lump bitcoin in with everything else. I think that there is a valid use case around dollar stablecoins. Bitcoin is a very important, I would say earth shattering technological advancement of money. And then there's everything else that I largely view as snake oil. And I could see there being justification for stablecoin specific legislation. And then there is Bitcoin. There should be bitcoin specific legislation to be defensive and protect rights. But lumping everything together ultimately serves to basically when we get down the road and everything else proves to be snake oil, to be a dragnet to capture bitcoin into it from a regulatory perspective. And when politicians say well we can't advantage bitcoin, Bitcoin doesn't need any advantages, it needs protection so that you don't infringe on our rights. You don't need to give us tax benefits, things like that. It's money should be treated as money. It should not be lumped in with crypto two through a million, because that largely is snake oil. And when you have to write everything in vague terms that are then subject to loose interpretation, it's not something that will end well for bitcoin. But also, I just don't think anything good generally comes from D.C. so it's not necessarily a surprise.
- [05:32]
Preston P. Foreign
At the same time, amen on that. I mean, it's just become such a blob when you look at everything that's been added in there. And. Yeah, and I just don't even know what my thoughts are on whether it passes or doesn't pass. I just don't really think it matters in the grand scheme of things too much. For bitcoiners and for people that really understand what the real innovation and the tech is. I don't know, what's your thoughts on it actually going through and getting passed?
- [05:58]
Parker Lewis
I presume it'll go through. I think that Brian Armstrong being willing to walk away from the table was a strategic move to get the changes that he wants. They spent a lot of money and they have benefit in having some regulatory clarity. So I expected that as a tactic and that there'll be some compromise. But I also generally agree with you that as it relates to the significance around bitcoin specifically, I don't think it's going to move the needle.
- [06:24]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah. Hey, Donald.
- [06:25]
Parker Lewis
Also, the other commentary is I can't remember who the founding father said it was, but one of the founding fathers talked about how that once laws become so where the common man can't understand them, like their utility, like, defeats its purpose. And if you actually go through to try to read this act, it's something that really only a lawyer can really decipher. And I think that that's, you know, that's specific to bitcoin or the, quote, crypto world. But it's just a symptom of how far DC has strays. I think this one bill is like time, like, if it's not 10 times longer than the Constitution. It's just like, why can't we have a simple thing that just says you have the right to custody your own bitcoin, control your own keys?
- [07:08]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah.
- [07:09]
Parker Lewis
End of story. It's legal to do this. You don't need a bunch of qualifiers. So, yeah, I think at the end of the day, it's going to be a Wash for bitcoin, it likely gets done because there's special interests that have an incentive for something to get done. What that compromise will be between the coinbase of the world and the banks, I don't know. But I'd expect. I'd expect it gets done.
- [07:29]
Preston P. Foreign
I would say this. If it doesn't get done right now, I don't know when it ever will get done, or at least anytime soon, because I don't know that you're going to have the control in the Senate and the House after midterms. And maybe you do, but if you don't, then something is never doesn't feel like anything.
- [07:48]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
I agree with that.
- [07:49]
Parker Lewis
Yeah, I agree with that. And I also think that's probably one of the reasons why, at least on the side of the coinbase of the world or the stablecoin lobby, that they would be minding to compromise. But then maybe the banks, and also the banks probably have an incentive because they want to unwind to some degree what was put in place with the Stablecoin Act. So probably because everyone's looking to the midterms and saying, well, this isn't a priority now. Will it ever be a priority? Or whatever the priority is around this space, it's probably not going to be nearly as favorable.
- [08:22]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah. Hey, down there in Texas, you guys just became the first state to actually fund a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 5 million was purchased in November at around 87,000 a coin. You testified in favor of SB21 earlier in the year. How does it feel to see a state move from theory to actually holding bitcoin on the balance sheet? What are your thoughts here?
- [08:44]
Parker Lewis
I think it's a big move. It's a move not to be understated. State of Texas, I believe, has 85 billion of cash and equivalents. And so it's a small move, a very small move financially, but I think it's a very strategic and significant move for what it represents, not just for bitcoin, but for a state like Texas to have evaluated whether or not this is a reasonable thing to do in 2025 for a sovereign state and having it go through a state House of Representative, through a state Senate, signed by the governor, and then acted upon, that other states will follow. And I would expect, I think, that the initial allocation for the state was to go up to 10 million. They bought 5 million. But I think that the piece of legislation specifically allowed for up to 500 million. So I would expect Texas's reserve to grow. And then one of the other reports that came out alongside it was that the state does have plans to transition from IBIT to custing the bitcoin themselves. Whether that comes through to be determined. But that's my understanding what the plan.
- [10:03]
Preston P. Foreign
Is, at least initially I didn't realize that. So they're currently holding IBIT through the etf. Oh, I didn't realize that's how they bought it.
- [10:10]
Parker Lewis
So I understand it.
- [10:12]
Preston P. Foreign
Oh, interesting. Okay. Hey, during the testimony that I just mentioned, you had stated that one in a hundred people actually understand bitcoin, but yet legislators are still passing things like this and they have a ton of interest in it. What do you think that. I mean, it's quite the dichotomy that most people just don't even understand it, but yet everybody's interested in about it and they're even passing laws about it. Help us understand how that's possible.
- [10:40]
Parker Lewis
Yeah, it's a good question. And when I say that it's clear that no more than 1 in 100 people understand Bitcoin, I mean actually understand what's happening. Truly seeing the field, seeing bitcoin as money. And when it comes to the actual number of people that grok it in a deeply intuitive way, it's probably not more than 10 basis points. There's 8 billion people in the world. Put your number on it or use any anecdote in your own personal life. One of the examples I used was that fewer than 1% of S&P 500 companies own it. But it's also easy just to go out in the world and observe for yourself how small percentage of the world really sees what's on the horizon. But at the same time, I think there's a larger group of people that are getting the signal that there's something of significance here in 2025. One of the popular trends was at least this vocalizing of the idea of the debasement trade. There is some connecting the idea of a fixed rate currency or fixed supply currency in a world where central banks are printing a bunch of money. And even if a state legislature or a pension fund, I'll use an example of the Wisconsin state pension fund, they bought ibit in 2024, I believe, but then they turned around and sold it. And so it's getting to be at that point where some of the career risk of nobody got fired for buying Microsoft is starting to wear off. And it's okay to start to be allocated to bitcoin in a very small percentage. But that doesn't necessarily mean you might be catching some of the Signal, like price is the signal. The Lindy effect of bitcoin being around for 17 years and being a $2 trillion asset is allowing people in very small ways to catch the signal and then say, hey, I should have some exposure to this. Which is distinct from I figured out truly why Bitcoin is relevant, why its fixed supply is so defensible, and why it is significant to the sea change in money that we're in the very inception of. So they don't get that, but they do get that a BlackRock launched an ETF. Hey, the idea is that it's a form of money that can't be manipulated and has a fixed supply. Don't necessarily understand how it works or if this is really the future. But in this world where central banks are printing ever more dollars and euros and yen to the tune of trillions, we should probably have a little bit of this. So I think that even though that is detached from a true understanding, they're catching some signal. They just don't necessarily. They're not locked in on it 100%.
- [13:27]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, it almost seems like AI might be helping a little bit too. So for a lot of people, especially when you look at how many domains Bitcoin itself goes across to fully grock it or understand it, it almost seems like for a person who just doesn't have the time or is focused on other things and they have their attention and other things, for them to step into a conversation about Bitcoin, they're just going to turn to AI and they're like, hey, like, isn't this just a giant Ponzi scheme? And then the AI every AI I've interacted with has never treated it that way. Every AI I've ever interacted with deeply understands it and finds enormous value in it. Based on the conversations that I've had with Claude, with Grok, with OpenAI, I mean, you name it, every one of the major language models is all about it. And I suspect that that might be helping a bit because, you know, your common person. I think all agree that, you know, you go and you ask AI a question about medical or a question about any type of topic that requires an enormous amount of knowledge and previous intellectual rigor to understand. And the AI probably knows it better than any human you can bring, you know, forward. And I think that in a way it's helping bring validity to it because it's not some other human that's saying, oh, no, like, I've made a bunch of money in Bitcoin and therefore it's Valid. And the other person who's listening to this other human, who in their mind isn't any smarter than them, they maybe just got lucky or whatever. That was their attribution. Right. But now they're going to something that they're actually viewing as a more superior form of deep knowledge that they can then ask it 100 follow up questions and it's giving them fire responses. And I think that that might be assisting in a way. Right.
- [15:17]
Parker Lewis
Potentially. That's an interesting take. I never had thought of that. Potentially I do think I've actually never asked Grok about what they think about Bitcoin because I've got my own views. But I do think that there likely is some acceleration of the research of wanting. I've used it to understand things that I didn't understand and it was a more efficient path to getting there. I would still lean to people looking out and seeing somebody like, or an institution like blackrock adopting it. Fidelity obviously has adopted it for a long time. But Fidelity having an etf, being able to see that you can buy a Fidelity ETF right in your trading account. It's a name that they trust. They're not having to go open up a separate account. Those barriers are being brought down. I think someone like where I thought you were going with that question is to me in many ways AI in my mind has become that new shiny object that's actually distracted people away from Bitcoin. Where the fervor around investing or the investment community is which AI is going to win or what segment of the market or how should we even think about this? And so a lot of the investment community mind is on that world. But then having somebody like the CEO of Nvidia talking about Bitcoin specifically in very serious ways about. There was a recent interview that he did where he was talking about how Bitcoin is secured by power. And if you think about it being you're transferring value and then securing it with real world power resources and that being a real signal. Well, there's a lot of people that are paying attention to the AI world and then hearing that from someone like Jensen, I can't remember his last name.
- [16:58]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, Huang.
- [16:59]
Parker Lewis
But then someone like Larry Fink saying that he was wrong about Bitcoin and that there's value to a neutral currency in a world of great uncertainty at the global scale around currencies and conflict. So I think that people are still probably more anchored to the names they trust, the institutions they trust. But I also believe probably people are using it to research Bitcoin and probably people get there in different ways, so I would discount that at the same time. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
- [17:29]
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- [18:35]
Preston P. Foreign
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- [20:15]
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- [21:29]
Preston P. Foreign
I've just seen it on X where people are arguing with somebody who's a complete naysayer against Bitcoin, and instead of the person actually responding like we did old school and getting into a Twitter fight, they're just saying, hey, Grok, explain, you know, all the nuance of this to this person and they're just like, they're gone. And then Gro.
- [21:50]
Parker Lewis
That's a great point. What's the, what's the saying where it's something about the amount of signal to refute, like if someone throws out both of them the amount of energy you have to spend to counter it. Yeah, if you can just counter it by the AI bot to respond and tell them why this is wrong. Like, yeah, it flips the script around the amount of energy required to refute the bull.
- [22:12]
Preston P. Foreign
So, and, and what else is.
- [22:14]
Parker Lewis
That's a, that's a very positive turn of events.
- [22:16]
Preston P. Foreign
The other thing too is because everybody knows what Grok is. You know, if there was some other human that would respond and have just an amazing response, the person who's reading that response has no idea what the credibility or how smart on that topic. The person is. They can kind of see from the evidence of the response whether it seems valid or not. But when a person sees that it's grok. It's almost like they're looking at. Everybody knows who it is. It'd be like the most famous person in the world that's the most intelligent in the world, and everybody knows who it is, and they're the one responding to your question. So you almost have this situation that you've never had in the history of humanity where this entity can step in and respond to something and you immediately know that it's based on just an incredible amount of intellectual horsepower that's providing a counterargument on your behalf. And you don't have to do. To your point, you don't have to do any. You don't have to expend any energy for the crap that some people spew. As far as counter arguments go.
- [23:18]
Parker Lewis
That's an interesting point. Now, one thing I will say is there is something odd that I think that's true. But it is also crazy how quickly people have come to look at these new tools as authorities.
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Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, right.
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Parker Lewis
Where they do, if they ask the question and they get a response back, they assume that it's true. Oh, this has so much knowledge. This is the case. I'm curious. I've had a few cases recently where I've actually asked a question and it's given me a blatantly wrong answer. And not one that's political. I'll give you an example. I was watching the Texas Michigan football game and the announcers mentioned that Texas had only played Michigan three times. I was aware of all three games. And I asked the AI I was like, how many times have Texas and Michigan played? And it said two. And I was like, well, I know that it's at least three, because I remember three. And it gave a game that was wrong, one of the two was wrong. And so just as an aside, but it's been very quick to the culture to just assume you ask that and it spits something out that is an authority. And I'm glad that it's sending out signal about Bitcoin, but it might be a room to manipulate people at the same time as easily as people have latched on to assume the authority of the bot talking back to them.
- [24:30]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, yeah. Well, to your point, in preparation for this, I was reading up on all the stuff happening with the Clarity act, and it said that the markup happened. And I know yesterday the markup didn't happen. And I went back And I said, hold on, this markup didn't happen yesterday. And it's like, oh, yeah, you're right. And it's like, you're right.
- [24:49]
Parker Lewis
Yeah.
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Preston P. Foreign
So it's, it's complete contra to the point that I was trying to make. But I think that we're getting to an interesting moment where maybe in a year, maybe two years from now, like, I think the mistakes are going to get so far less and it's going to get so much better at only shooting out truth. And I think that it's going to start producing this drastic change just in human culture and how it interacts and where it gets its source of truth from. As scary as we might look at that, whether we want that or not isn't my argument. My argument is, is that I think on a net basis, humanity is going to start treating it as just the truth engine, whether people like that or not. And I think that that might actually have profound implications for Bitcoin and for people's willingness to start embracing it more than what they have in the past because it's been such a massive education burden that seems to be maybe easier to overcome if you have the assistance of AI.
- [25:47]
Parker Lewis
Yeah, I think that's right. What I'll also say is on a different kind of tangent is that one of the benefits of AI to Bitcoin is that gives Bitcoin so much cover on the energy side, because now that AI exists and now that it needs and consumes all this power, there's this other large stakeholder group that has shifted their tune around going out and delivering cheap, reliable power. And it's also ironic in a sense, because while bitcoin is a perfect consumer of power because it is perfectly monetary and perfectly economic, and that when there's scarcity of power and the price goes up, bitcoin miners come down, the AI companies are not nearly as flexible, and it's actually starting to drive the price up. And now that will drive both new generation coming online. But more of the angst around the power dynamics gets shifted towards AI and away from Bitcoin. So I think that that is a very positive.
- [26:44]
Preston P. Foreign
Well, just think of it from the. If you're the smartest AI in the world, let's fast forward the tape. You're five years into the future and the AI, let's just say it is of an AGI level. It wants additional dampening on the grid. It wants additional robust infrastructure on the grid because it makes itself more powerful and capable by having that there. And like, how do you deliver that probably in the most optimal way, I would argue, is with bitcoin mining. So it's going to be highly incentivized to ensure that there's bitcoin mining alongside AI compute, inference, computer.
- [27:18]
Parker Lewis
It'll be a combination of bitcoin mining and batteries of where can supply be? Because miners can respond by turning off demand and batteries can be both incremental sources of demand, but also incremental source of supply. So I think a combination of those two become a massive asset.
- [27:37]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah. And I'll tell you the other thing too. From a battery standpoint, if people were making the argument that they think batteries would be a better choice than bitcoin miners, which that's a whole rabbit hole in and of itself. I think when you look at how many robo taxis and how many cars just Tesla alone is going to have out there that is storing its energy via battery and how much inference compute those cars alone could do if you network them all. Like, that's a whole nother rabbit hole of going down the battery path versus Bitcoin. And it's already. I guess my point is you're already going to have an insanely robust network of cars that are on a network as an additional kind of like material that's out there for stored energy. But yeah, that's a very deep and long rabbit hole in and of itself. But let's go to. So back in December, you gave a presentation at Old Parkland called Bitcoin is the Greatest Asymmetry. You laid out three pillars. The first one was the magnitude of the opportunity is unmatched. Second one was adoption is probable but not possible. And the third is the surface area to evaluate is finite. Can you walk us through the framework, what you were really trying to accomplish with the presentation and any just like core highlights that you have for us?
- [28:53]
Parker Lewis
Sure, yeah. And this presentation followed a presentation that I gave two years ago at the same venue. And Old Parkland's a really interesting place because it's a family office park in Dallas. But also just interesting side note, almost irrelevant, but it was actually where JFK was taken when he was shot in Dallas. It was Parkland was Parkland Hospital that later was decommissioned and then bought by the Crow family and turned into an office park. But there's a lot of family offices that work out of there. It's a beautiful campus and it's just a beautiful setting to be able to give a talk on Bitcoin. And it was a place that I was familiar of from my time when I lived in Dallas and I was invited to give a talk there in 2023. And the subject of that talk was the principal question that I kept hearing come up, which was in the title of the talk then was Bitcoin is not a Hedge. And in that period of time it was 2023, inflation was running rampant and the price of bitcoin was going down. Process of 2021-2023. In that first talk that I gave there, I explained, hey, this is a pressing question that a lot of people have. It's not making sense. And let me help bring some clarity around it. Now that bitcoin is sitting at 100,000 ish, there's a discussion around quantum, and there's quantum risk. But I've been experiencing just in my own network of friends that are not yet, you know, kind of taking bitcoin seriously, really getting hung up on this idea that Bitcoin's at 100,000. The sense of it's too expensive. I've missed it. My energy and focus is going on to AI. And I gave some of the backdrop to that talk was to frame how much asymmetry remains in bitcoin or how early we really are and to paint a picture of where we're going. And oftentimes depending on what the audience is or if I'm talking about a certain aspect of bitcoin, I like to jump to the conclusion and then work backwards. In this talk, it was really trying to frame of like, hey, you haven't missed it. I know that your energy has probably shifted onto AI, but your energy needs to be on Bitcoin because it is the greatest asymmetry in the world. And it's a very unique one in the sense that a lot of times people think about asymmetric opportunities as opportunities to make money. Different asymmetric bets that are generally low probability. And what makes bitcoin so unique is not just that there's great upside in it, but that it's the most foundational asymmetry because money sits at the foundation of the economic structure. But also this idea that there's negative asymmetry to not only currency debasement, but the end game of currency debasement, which is hyperinflation. That one of the themes in that talk that I talked about is that if you didn't invest in Apple early or Google early or Tesla early, and you could bring that forward to today thinking about some AI startup, if you passed on one of those opportunities and didn't make money, your life didn't get worse off. What I communicated to this crowd in this talk is that one of the uniqueness of asymmetry specific to Bitcoin is that if you don't take an action, no action is an action when it comes to your money that's getting destroyed. And that if you don't participate, your life will actually get worse off because ultimately your money's going to stop working. And what that means is not just that your purchasing power declines, but your standard of living declines. So I really broke into those three frameworks. We can go into each one of just the contextualization. But yes, there is massive positive asymmetry, positive risk view to orders of magnitude up because of how early we are. And when you understand it in the framework of certain of the data points that I raised, that's number one. Second one being by definition most asymmetric events are low probability. Bitcoin is increasingly probabilistic and I talked about ideas of how far Bitcoin's become the absolute scale that it's at various different major milestones, including the state of Texas buying it, but also just starting to understand the scale of power that is securing it, the work being done around payments where launching bitcoin payments, then that third column there is negative asymmetry. Because while people think of often asymmetry as it relates to investments as great upside relative to the limited downside or limited relative downside, in this case asymmetry can also mean limited upside and great downside. And that's the dynamic that exists in fiat currencies. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
- [33:15]
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- [36:53]
Parker Lewis
All right, back to the show.
- [36:55]
Preston P. Foreign
Let's hit on the second one just a little bit because I think for somebody that would maybe be a first time listener or just kind of coming to Bitcoin more recently, they might hear this discussion about probability versus possibility and maybe say you're a zealot because you're saying that it's so probable. So how Would you address that for somebody that is just kind of showing up? Parker?
- [37:17]
Parker Lewis
Well, one of the ideas that I talk about is that before I get to the probability, I think it's encapsulated in the same idea. And it's certainly how I think about probability is that the surface area to evaluate Bitcoin is finite and the evaluation and it comes into probabilities. Because if I think about Bitcoin as being binary, it either works or it doesn't. If it doesn't work, it's not marginal. In my mind, its value goes to zero. Everything about Bitcoin working or not working is whether Bitcoin can credibly enforce its fixed supply without the need for trust, and whether against all odds, all adversaries, whether Bitcoin as a autonomous system can continue to solve blocks. And what those blocks ultimately represent is the enforcement of Bitcoin's fixed supply. And the substance of that fixed supply is that it represents a form of money that can't be printed. And so with everything else in the world that someone might consider investing in, the surface area is necessarily non finite. It's not necessarily whether something works or doesn't work, it's to what degree does it something could fail. But even if it doesn't fail, is this small win, is it a double, is it a triple, is it a humruck? And that it makes Bitcoin simpler in that way to say, okay, let me test the assumption first. If it were to be true that Bitcoin does have a fixed supply, is this idea that economic systems converge on one form of money and you can go back to the gold standard and the world converging on a gold standard. It doesn't mean 100% of the entire world works on one form of money, but it means that there's a long tail that 99% of it does. They can look to their own lives. They only interact with one form of money on a daily basis. And here's someone saying that Bitcoin's a form of money that can't be printed. And if it were true that that property held, would that cause the world to converge on it? That's the simplified way to think about it. Now, when I extend that out to say, okay, well, let's look at where Bitcoin is today. It's been around for 17 years. It's been around long enough for the state of Texas, which states any government institution from an investment perspective is inherently conservative. Been along long enough for an institution like BlackRock to launch an ETF to hold it, State of Texas to pass legislation going through the House, the Senate, the executive branch to buy it. And then they did. Looking at metrics like the amount of power that's securing the bitcoin network, which I would put at an estimate of 20 to 30 gigawatts. And to give someone a context of a large manufacturing plant has 5 megawatts that we're talking orders of magnitude larger than the largest manufacturing facilities. And then looking at the trend of where the bitcoin mining hash rate has gone, in the presentation, I used a data point from just two years ago. People look at Bitcoin being highly volatile, but you see this just steady increase of power continuing to come online in a more linear fashion, securing the bitcoin network. And then you see the end game starting to take shape with large public companies like Square beginning to turn switches on, such that 4 million people that use Square for payments can, on a software terminal, hit a button. And then if they want to start accepting bitcoin as payments, they don't have to change anything. It meets them right where they're at. That to say, hey, 17 years in the amount of power, the amount of interest, look at where we've gone from to where we are today. What causes this to break is if there was something that could undermine Bitcoin's fixed supply and the incentives around it. And then as I said to somebody, I said, you don't have to use the probability the same way I do. What you have to accept is this thing is binary. The fulcrum that everything rests on is the credibility of its fixed supply. The larger that bitcoin becomes, the longer that it exists, the larger it becomes, the harder it tangibly becomes to undermine, the harder it becomes to stop. And so even if you put the probability 1% or 2%, I might put it at 90% and 99%. I don't expect somebody to look at the same equation and come to it as probabilistic as I believe. But even if you discount that heavily, the equation, given the other two pieces of the framework of how absolutely positive asymmetric skew is, and that there's great downside if you were to be wrong, that even if you're discounting it and saying there's a 1% probability, you still have to be exposed to it. And so I think that it's easier to actually evaluate because it's binary, but again, you can discount it heavily and arrive at the same conclusion, just to a different degree. Yeah.
- [42:12]
Preston P. Foreign
And I'll summarize this for anybody who was hearing that Parker saying, you need a position, you need to have some Bitcoin in your portfolio, is what he's saying. And I agree. I mean, you lay it all out there and it's the amount and the quantity that you would attribute to that. And like you're saying, it's completely up to the eye of the beholder as to what numbers they want to slap on there. But saying that the probability is zero, which, you know, if a person wants to say it's zero, they can say it's zero. But, you know, the skew on if you're wrong is quite brutal if you want to say it's zero. So I want to talk about this ribeye index. I think this is pretty fun. And just to slap some numbers on this that you've been posting, you've been tracking the price of the same ribeye steak at the Same store since 2020 for the last five years. Your latest update showed a 72.5% cumulative inflation over that period, and that's 19% annualized. If anybody's keeping track, which is a far cry from the official CPI, it's even higher than what many people say the M2 growth rate is here in the US which is around 8 or 9% annualized over the same period. What's your take on this and why is this important?
- [43:26]
Parker Lewis
You know, one, it's a great way to distill everything that's happening in the world because the ribeye doesn't lie.
- [43:33]
Preston P. Foreign
It's still desirable, right? It's scarce and desirable.
- [43:36]
Parker Lewis
So it requires work to produce. And there's food, energy, money, as kind of three key working systems that are very foundational to our economic system. It's also a great troll to the fiat economists that say that you can't distill things down. And it is an oversimplification, but it is this idea that inflation is a vector, that whether or not you consume a lot of ribeyes, you need to look at the things in your life that you consume and measure inflation based on those things. Because if the Federal Reserve is saying that CPI is 2.7%, but you're going to CVS and Walgreens and things are rising at far higher rates. Or if you're getting on planes to go visit family or a flight used to cost $300 and now it costs $600, that inflation is really the goods and services that you consume. And if your rate of inflation is not keeping pace with your wages, the net consequence to that is your standard of Living is declining. And so I consume a lot of ribeyes. I enjoy eating ribeyes. And when you look at something as basic as a commodity in the same place, that doesn't change that it's a true unobstructed view of how prices are actually changing and food is fuel at the same time. So if you eat a lot of chicken and start paying attention to the same chicken, you can't swap out a chicken for chicken nuggets because that might not be the same chicken. But start comping the same basic commodities and see how they're trending over time in your area, because that's actually a better measure for how relative prices are actually changing versus what the Fed or the BLS are telling you they're changing.
- [45:20]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, I mean, on the point, on the ribeye too, is it's so pure for the most part, that it's a great index because like you're saying, so much of the food is just being replaced, the ingredients of the food is being replaced with just absolute garbage that's cheaper and not nearly as nutritious. Now, you can make the argument on the ribeye that it's corn fed and not necessarily grass fed, but I think back in 2020, which is when you started this, everything was pretty much corn fed anyway. You were buying at a regular grocery store was probably corn fed anyway. So it still is.
- [45:53]
Parker Lewis
Yeah. There's a chance that if anything, they might have substituted out for something worse. They didn't make it better over that period. So that's the minimum degree. But also, and I say this in a way that it comes back to this idea of negative asymmetry to fiat inflation. I went to CVS a few nights ago and I got eight things. No, I went to Walgreens, got eight things, basic things like children's Motrin and trash bags and disinfectant spray and some vitamin C gummies or something like 8 things. $109 and inflation is off the charts.
- [46:29]
Preston P. Foreign
It's nowhere near CPI. It's nowhere near.
- [46:31]
Parker Lewis
Prices are changing more frequently. People are observing it, and there's a reality that it is suffocating a large majority of the country. And it's serious. It's like part of the ribeye index, it is true, is a great measure of inflation. It is also a great way to troll fiat economists. But on the other side of it, it's like, hey, there is negative asymmetry. And one of the things I mentioned in the talk was that I don't talk about hyperinflation to Be a doomer. And it's uncomfortable to think about, but it's also the logical end game. And no action is an action. And that it's getting to the point that it's so bad, particularly things like food. People can look at housing prices coming down because interest rates are high, but by and large, anything that requires production on a recurring basis is trending up significantly over time. And it might dip for a period of time, but electricity prices are going up, gas prices are going down, but gas prices have gone down before and gone up again. That the trend is all being driven by the same underlying mechanism and it's fiat money printing and it takes time to distribute through the economic system. But it's real, it's serious. It ends in one way. And that one way is hyperinflation. And if people don't respond in a way that is high agency to actually protect themselves by opting into a better form of money, it's not going to be the difference of inflation between 3% and 6% is going to be them not being able to afford the very basic necessities in life.
- [48:02]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah.
- [48:02]
Parker Lewis
And so I bring it up not to like scare people, but to say, hey, there's something you can do about this and you should be. Because the more people that are protecting themselves, the better off we're all going to be.
- [48:12]
Preston P. Foreign
It seems that there's been a major shift in nutrition and maybe it's just my. The feed that I'm seeing on X as to the people that I'm following and whatnot. Everybody seems to be slowly starting to understand that the meat is healthy for you and that it's not going to give you a heart attack like this. Marketing and propaganda that was really quite prevalent, I would argue, clear up to Covid. And it seems like ever since COVID there seems to be a bit of a trend in the opposite direction of people questioning. I mean, we literally just had Kennedy come out and flip the food pyramid upside down. And I think things like this at a federal level are causing a lot of people to say, hold on, like what is was I lied to for decades on end. I'm curious.
- [48:58]
Parker Lewis
I don't know. There was a clip floating around from south park where it's like, Kennedy's on the phone and the guy in the lab says, he's like, sir, the pyramid is not working. Turn it upside down. Like what? Turn it upside down. They turn it upside down and then it all fits into place. I do think that part of this broader trend that people are finding their way out of the trance that they were under.
- [49:27]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah.
- [49:27]
Parker Lewis
Of, you know, whether it's the money, the health and obviously all these things are highly interconnected, that there's people that are, they're bucking the authorities to think for themselves and say, yeah, I'm going to go this other direction, I'm going to try. Because whatever you've been telling me to be true, it's not been working out. And I think that it's getting so much momentum in various different areas that it all winds up intersecting each other. Because the other side of it is if you figure out that you've been lied to about the food for 30 years, it's not so easy just to be like, oh, I'm going to start eating steak again. If you don't have the savings to be able to do that, you can't fix that overnight. That is a big part of what's happened is this as inflation has curbed, people have had to shift into lower quality food that's screwed up their health. And it's not something you turn around overnight, but it is something that's connected with it. But the sooner that somebody can start to see the signal, basically turn off the noise, then they see these things as being related to each other and can start actually making positive change.
- [50:37]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, totally agree. You wrote this back in, I think back in May you wrote that the greatest trick the central bankers ever pulled was convincing the world that the individuals must perpetually take risk, risk just to preserve value already created. Bitcoin reverses that. It lets people save again instead of being forced to speculate. Paint this picture of definancialization and what the definancialization economy looks like, especially in the face of everything that we've just seen with AI because it just seems like this financialization of everything and forcing people to speculate is just kind of hitting yet again. Another higher fever pitch than where it was a year ago with some of the antics that we're seeing with Nvidia and OpenAI and the likes of the shenanigans that they're pulling from a financialization standpoint to raise capital.
- [51:29]
Parker Lewis
Yeah. One example that I would lean on to segue from this food discussion and the Ribeye index is I was helping our local rancher who also owns a grocer understand Bitcoin and going from this perspective of financialization and specifically the quote you just mentioned of thinking about, hey, if you're producing beef and then you're building a grocer to be the way that consumers actually purchase things from you Rather than just the farmer's market, or rather than selling through a larger grocery chain. Imagine every gross margin unit that you sell not being able to purchase commensurate value that you delivered in the present. Think about it literally as every unit you sell, whatever value you delivered in the present will purchase you less in the future. And that's because they print money. How can you possibly continue to maintain the same standard of quality if that's what you're up against? And then layer onto that the fact that you know that, you know that your dollar, your gross profit, that then turning into your bottom line is degrading in value. And that part of the way that you have to counter that is on the side of being a rancher, on the side of being a grocer. You're having to invest your money. You're constantly having to change your business model, or at least your pricing model, oftentimes in arrears because your input costs are changing faster than you're actually changing them to your end customers. But then you know that you're on this hamster wheel. And so at the same time that you're trying to run your business, you have a certain amount of savings that you also know is being degraded after your full time job is over. Oftentimes just imagining whether it's a rancher, a grocer, doctor, lawyer, teacher, after their primary way of delivering value and working is over, I just have this Visual of between 8pm and 10pm sitting in front of a computer, those same people trying to pick stocks. So it's like a hit them high, hit them low phenomenon. And that if you could just take the fly out of the ointment and say, hey, if you could just convert your goods and services directly into a form of money that can't be printed and stores its purchasing power, two things happen. All the value that you delivered in the present holds value into the future, so that you're actually in a position to continue to deliver the same quality and standard without having to do incremental work. And you don't have to bother between the hours of 8pm and 10pm to become a stock picker. You can just focus on your craft. And so I always focus on the micro of an individual and the predicament that the money printer and the degradation of savings plus each individual. And then I extend it out to the bigger macro trends of okay, now everybody is looking at AI and feeling like they need to pick a winner. And so you have this huge herd mentality of trying to basically offset and it's not to say it's like when I'm talking about how if you take the fly out of the ointment and it will remove a large swath of people investing that otherwise wouldn't be investing other than to outpace or try to outpace inflation. It's that there's still going to be innovation. We're always going to be where we're at today and humans are always going to have problems that need to be solved and that it won't eliminate investment. And if there's innovation to be had, that necessarily mean solving problems for enough people to justify a margin in a business, that there's still going to be opportunities to invest that occur naturally. It's not going to eliminate that, but it stops people from having to constantly feel like they're chasing the next thing as a way to, to outrun the money printer. And the other problem is that a lot of people don't even realize that that's what they're doing. Like financial engineering in terms of. I haven't gotten into the details of it and this might have been what you were alluding to, how some of the revenue accounting is then leading to their ability to raise capital. That sort of financial engineering might sit at a different level. But I also think that that's a much higher order than the fundamental that really drove financialization, which is a money printer, and that the trend that will cause the definancialization, the simplification without removing investment broadly is just a form of money that can't be printed.
- [55:58]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, I love this point of yours because it's just, I think if you went and just did an audit of middle class America, everybody just feels like they're already running at 120% and they're looking to their future and they're saying, oh my God, I'm at the run at 140% and they're just tapped out. They're tired. They're having to do things that just feel like there's never any pause or rest and that the expectation for the future is they got to go faster and harder. And I'm with you by and large.
- [56:28]
Parker Lewis
To stay in the same place just to.
- [56:30]
Preston P. Foreign
Exactly. Just to stay in the same place and not even get ahead and maybe even fall back a couple clicks. So yeah, I'm with you and I mean you and I see the solution and we think that we see it very clearly. Hopefully we're right. I'm pretty sure that we're onto something.
- [56:45]
Parker Lewis
But yeah, that's a good place to Just say that. That's a big part of what this talk was about. It wasn't specifically about this relationship between AI and bitcoin. But it is so easy in this world for people's attention to go to the next thing saying, hey, there's a real problem here. This thing is not going to fix itself. Bitcoin is the solution. Or if you don't see that yet, you need to be thinking about it through that frame and spend the time to evaluate it. Because in a 24 hour news cycle. And there is a negative psychology to bitcoin being, quote, as expensive as it is, but in the grand scheme, it is in its infancy still and there's large consequence to it. And so even though you and I have come to that conclusion, it's like so many people just turn it off without going deep and then they have some excuse not to. It was like, oh, I don't believe in bitcoin, but blockchain now it's like, well, AI is the future and maybe we aren't going to need money. And it's like, no, that's just an excuse not to go down the bitcoin rabbit hole. But there's great consequence to you if you don't. And so focus your time and energy there. It's actually a lot easier than you might think. It is a lot more basic, a lot more fundamental, and if nothing else, it certainly merits your time just given the inherent asymmetry if it were to be true.
- [58:01]
Preston P. Foreign
So I'm just going to put this out there for the listener. As you can tell, Parker has an amazing way of explaining a lot of these really important variables around bitcoin. He has a book, it's called Gradually Then Suddenly. It's an incredible book. I'm sure people can go on Amazon to pick it up. And Parker, did you have anything else that you wanted to point people towards if they want to learn more about you?
- [58:22]
Parker Lewis
I would only clarify. It's actually on Save Dean's website. I just went there. I went pure bitcoin on this.
- [58:28]
Preston P. Foreign
Okay.
- [58:29]
Parker Lewis
The book can be bought@the safehouse.com, which is safe spelled S A I F. The safe house dot com. The ebook is there as well. I just finished the audiobook, so that'll be coming out shortly.
- [58:41]
Preston P. Foreign
Oh, nice.
- [58:42]
Parker Lewis
Read it myself. And then I just say if you could link the presentation that was at Old Parkland. Bitcoin is the greatest asymmetry show notes so that people could access it if they want to with ease. And then I'd say For those people that already grok bitcoin and see it as money, understand why it's worth value, I highly encourage those people to start to accept it as payment. And if they're thinking about that, to reach out to us at Zaprite Z A P r I t e.com and I'll help you personally help you get set up and at least talk you through what it would require. So, yeah, if it's not yet clicking, grab my book, go listen to the presentation, and if it already is, then turn your business into a bitcoin treasury company by accepting as payment.
- [59:21]
Preston P. Foreign
Yeah, I would tell you, having used Zaprite a few times, it's pretty awesome, Parker. And for anybody listening, if you're a merchant or you own a business and you want to start accepting, accepting bitcoin, but you don't want to have to do any of the hard work to set it all up, that's what his company, Zapright, does. So we'll have a link to that in the show notes as well. So we'll have a link to all that stuff that he mentioned in the show notes. So check out the show notes, guys. Last episode at the end, this was our Mastermind discussion. American Hodl surprised all of us and did an on the fly AI music song about the four of us in that Mastermind group. Since last week when we did this, I've played around with this AI music, and it's actually hilarious and, like, actually pretty good if you give it a decent prompt. So what I'm going to do, just for fun, at the end of each of the shows, I'm going to feed it, you know, the AI transcript of what we just talked about, and we're going to turn it into a song of your choice of genre. So, like, if you like rock, if you like hip hop, whatever it is, you decide, Parker. And as soon as we hang up this call, that song is going to play for everybody that just listened to the podcast. So with that said, Parker, what is your favorite artist genre? What is it?
- [60:40]
Parker Lewis
Dude, Texas country.
- [60:41]
Preston P. Foreign
Texas country.
- [60:43]
Parker Lewis
Yeah. So I'd either go like Robert Earl Keane or Jerry Jeff Walker, Shane Smith and the Saints.
- [60:50]
Preston P. Foreign
Okay, well, there you go. That's what the recap of this episode is going to be. I hope you guys enjoy the song. And Parker, thank you so much for joining us and making time.
- [61:00]
Parker Lewis
Yeah, Preston, it's been good to be here. Thank you for having me on.
- [61:11]
American Hodl
I was waking up at Midtown to an inbox full of light Staring at that frozen tickle While the world slipped.
- [61:22]
Parker Lewis
Outside.
- [61:25]
American Hodl
Boss man said just chase that bones don't you dare quit this ride Every turn on every screen look like a slow land slide and water moves down hillside so does all this money you can fight the current til you can finally run free they can crank a handle took cheap turns into funny water moves downhill son come way down here with me me. Dollars shook his head and didn't speak my paycheck filled my paper ashes in a rusted metal tray saving heart standing still while the price tags ran away Water moves downhill side the soda's honest mighty you can fight the courage so you do finally run free they can't train the handle til cheap turns and a bunny Water moves downhill son come wait out here with me.
- [63:23]
Parker Lewis
So I.
- [63:24]
American Hodl
Swap my my super denim trick blast for sky to the sun stacked a little signal every time the work I've done yeah banker laughed and called it foolish said a good song passing dream I said friend I seen your ledger and I know what passing means.
- [63:51]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
Water.
- [63:51]
American Hodl
Moves downhill sun so does honest money you can't fight the current or you can finally run free if they can't spin their stories till numbers just get running Water moves downhill southern come wait out here with me Water move downhill.
- [64:25]
Preston P. Foreign
Sun.
- [64:27]
American Hodl
That'S where I'll always be.
- [64:38]
Preston P. Foreign
Thanks for listening to tip. Follow Bitcoin fundamentals on your favorite podcast app and visit theinvestorspodcast.com for show notes and educational resour. This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not provide financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The content is impersonal and does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Listeners should do their own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. Nothing on this show is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other financial product. Hosts, guests and the Investors Podcast Network may hold positions in securities discussed and may change those positions at any time without notice. References to any third party products, services or advertisers do not constitute endorsements and the Investors Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Copyright by the Investors Podcast Network. All rights reserved.