Podcast Summary: We Study Billionaires – TECH003: Elon Musk's Tesla Robotaxi, Optimus, and More w/ Cern Basher

Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Preston Pysh
Guest: Cern Basher (President & CIO, Brilliant Advice)

Overview

In this episode of Infinite Tech, host Preston Pysh interviews technology and finance expert Cern Basher about Elon Musk’s latest technological ventures—focusing primarily on Tesla’s evolution into an AI and robotics powerhouse. Topics include the shutdown of Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer, the economics and transformative potential of robotaxi and robo trucking, the advent of Optimus humanoid robots, and broader implications for society and investors. The conversation weaves in the impact of technological deflation, the challenges of universal basic income (UBI) versus "universal high income," and links to Bitcoin as a hedge and treasury asset.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Dojo Supercomputer Shutdown & Chip Strategy

• [01:42–04:33] Cern Basher explains the strategic move by Tesla to shut down Dojo, a custom training supercomputer originally meant to rival Nvidia. Rather than being a negative, this pivot demonstrates Nvidia’s dominance and hints at Tesla’s refocus on inference chips designed in-house for on-device AI.
• Key Insight:
  • "Tesla knows exactly what they want from the inference chip because they're building the software that's going to run on the chip." – Cern Basher (03:59)
• Preston clarifies inference: Chips optimized for quickly processing trained AI models onboard vehicles or robots, essential for instantaneous decision-making (e.g., steering or braking without a central server roundtrip).
  • "That inference step... really might become the secret sauce." – Preston Pysh (05:10)
• The partnership between Elon and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is discussed, with emphasis on mutual benefit rather than direct competition.

2. Elon’s System-of-Systems Approach & Operational Moat

• [09:12–13:16]
  • Elon’s unique strength lies in production—"building the machine that builds the machine."
  • Tesla innovates not just in products but in manufacturing, evident in hyper-automated lines for everything from cars to Starlink terminals.
  • Parallel advances include SpaceX, energy transformation via Tesla Energy, The Boring Company’s urban infrastructure, and more.
  • Big Picture Vision: Driving the costs of energy, intelligence, transportation, and labor toward zero through automation and abundant systems.
    • "We're moving from a world that is very limited and constrained... to a world then that has an abundance of all those things." – Cern Basher (13:16)

3. Societal Disruption & Universal (High) Income

• [14:03–18:39]
  • Preston raises concerns over job displacement by robotics and AI, referencing his wife’s skepticism.
  • Cern offers historical context (tractors, switchboard operators) to show new jobs always emerge, but acknowledges this transition is less clear now.
    • “Throughout human history, every time there's been a massive technological advancement, we've always created more jobs than we displace.” – Cern Basher (15:26)
  • Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Elon’s vision for "universal high income" are briefly discussed, highlighting abundance as an outcome.
  • Technological deflation could dramatically lower the cost of living, similar to today’s “too cheap to meter” telecom model.

4. Geopolitical Imperative & Technology Race

• [18:39–19:53]
  • The necessity for the U.S. to stay at the forefront of exponential tech: “If we don't pursue these technologies... the Chinese will.” – Cern Basher (18:39)

5. Next S-Curve Businesses: Robotaxi, Robo-Trucking, and Energy

• [23:44–32:51]

  • Robotaxi:

    • The most imminent “S-curve” opportunity.
    • Robotaxi economics vastly outpace traditional car sales: $4,000 one-time car profit vs upwards of $200,000 (or even $400,000) per vehicle in services over five years.
      • "That's the kind of unlock that Tesla's on the cusp of with Robotaxi." – Cern Basher (26:31)
    • Numbers: Own car costs ~$0.65–0.80/mile, Uber $2–$3/mile, Robotaxi: ~$0.25–0.30/mile.
    • Potential for layered services (delivery, advertising) and even free rides subsidized by ads.
      • "Eventually you may be able to get free rides if you're willing to subject yourself to advertising." – Cern Basher (29:30)

  • Robo-Trucking:

    • Tesla building a Nevada factory for 50,000 trucks/year by 2027.
    • Trucks will be cheaper, electric, autonomous—slashing per-mile costs (current: $1.60–$2.00/mile, possible: $0.60–$0.80/mile).
    • Massive deflationary effect for the entire economy.
      • "50% (cost reduction) is absolutely enormous." – Cern Basher (34:33)

  • Competitors:

    • Waymo and others hampered by higher unit costs and less scalable hardware; Chinese firms may be main challengers (esp. in China).
    • Disagreement over the necessity of lidar as opposed to Tesla’s camera-based approach.

6. Timeline for Robotaxi & Robo-Trucking Rollout

• [42:11–43:59]
  • Pilot services running in Austin and Silicon Valley; expansion to more cities as safety proves out.
  • FSD Version 14 promises a 10x jump in parameters; Preston and Cern discuss the promise and limitations of current data.
    • “Elon has made sort of comments that the car seems sentient.” – Cern Basher (43:15)

7. Tesla Energy & Battery Storage

• [46:06–47:22]
  • Tesla’s “Megapack” battery systems could double U.S. grid capacity without adding new generation.
  • Battery storage enables optimal use of renewables, representing another fast-growing profit center.

8. Tesla, Technological Deflation, and Bitcoin as Treasury Asset

• [47:33–49:31]
  • Cern advocates for Tesla to increase its Bitcoin holdings, citing impending deflation from AI/robotics and potential fiat currency instability.
    • "The only place where in the store capital is going to be in Bitcoin. That's going to be safe from that." – Cern Basher (48:49)

9. Optimus Humanoid Robot – Engineering, Timeline, and Business Model

• [49:37–59:33]
  • Engineering complexity: Harder than cars, second only to Starship; biggest design bottleneck now is the humanoid hand.
    • “It's the second hardest thing that Elon's working on I suppose right now.” – Cern Basher (50:41)
  • Use case starts in factories—robots can do simple tasks today, scale and capability will rise each model generation.
  • Potential for a “robot-as-a-service” model to capitalize on compounding utility.
    • "Optimust will become the vast majority, maybe 80%, of Tesla's market value at some point in the future." – Cern Basher (54:39)
    • For every $25,000/year in robot profit at a PE of 40, that’s $1 million in value per robot. A million robots = $1 trillion in value.
  • Production scaling: Ramp-up from a few thousand to potentially millions/year by 2030; future growth limited only by supply chain in the near term.
  • Use expected to move from industrial (high utilization) to home applications as costs drop.
    • “We're going to see them everywhere... robots as caregivers for elderly, as tourists for kids... But the economic win is batteries that run three shifts." – Cern Basher (58:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Operational Moat:
  • "Tesla's innovations is building the machine that builds the machine." – Cern Basher (09:33)
• On Elon’s Vision:
  • "We're moving from a world that is very limited and constrained... to a world then that has an abundance of all those things." – Cern Basher (13:16)
• On Technology and Jobs:
  • "Throughout human history, every time there's been a massive technological advancement, we've always created more jobs than we displace." – Cern Basher (15:26)
  • "In the world of AI, I think there'll be some surprises along that front as well." – Cern Basher (16:06)
• On Robo Taxi Disruption:
  • “That's the kind of unlock that Tesla's on the cusp of with Robotaxi.” – Cern Basher (26:31)
• On Optimus Value Creation:
  • "Optimust will become the vast majority, maybe 80%, of Tesla's market value at some point in the future." – Cern Basher (54:39)
  • "What we're seeing for the first time in human history is potentially the capitalization of labor." – Cern Basher (54:20)
• On Deflation and Bitcoin:
  • "The only place where in the store capital is going to be in Bitcoin. That's going to be safe from that." – Cern Basher (48:49)

Key Timestamps

• Dojo Shutdown & AI Chips – 01:42, 03:59, 05:10
• Tesla’s Manufacturing Edge – 09:33, 10:03
• Abundance Thesis – 13:16, 13:36
• Jobs & UBI Debate – 15:26, 16:06, 18:39
• Robotaxi Economics – 26:31, 29:30
• Robo-Trucking Economics – 34:33
• Tesla Energy – 46:06
• Bitcoin as Treasury – 48:49
• Optimus/Capitalization of Labor – 54:20, 54:39
• Production Scaling (Optimus) – 56:50, 58:41

Conclusion

Cern Basher delivers a compelling vision of Tesla’s—and Elon Musk’s—role in the evolution from an economy of constraints to one of abundance. He highlights the combinatorial value of Tesla’s many technology "puzzle pieces" and predicts that robotaxi, robo trucking, and Optimus humanoid robots will radically reshape profitability, labor, and even societal value creation. Cern’s rationale for optimism, tempered by historical context and macroeconomic realities, makes this episode essential listening for anyone interested in the intersection of exponential technology, investing, and social transformation.

To follow Cern Basher:

• X (Twitter): @CernBasher

(End of summary)