
Clay is joined by François Rochon to discuss his long-term investing philosophy.
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Preston Pysh
You're listening to TIP on today's episode.
Stig Brodersen
I'm pleased to welcome back investing legend Francois Rochon. Since Francois started the Rochon global portfolio in 1993, he's compounded capital at 13.6% per year on average, net of fees and the S&P 500 compounded at 10.6%.
Clay Fink
Over that same time period.
Stig Brodersen
Francois firmly believes that buying great businesses.
Clay Fink
At fair prices is the key to.
Stig Brodersen
Success as a long term investor. He also believes that trying to time the market is a fool's errand and that stock price volatility is a gift to investors seeking to beat the market. During this conversation we discuss why Francois spends the time to write a letter.
Clay Fink
For his partners each year.
Stig Brodersen
His takeaways and lessons from 2024, how concentrated he prefers to make his fund, why Giverny Capital will always remain fully invested and not try to time the market. The four key risks for equity investors to consider why Francois recently made booking holdings in Brown and Brown core positions in his portfolio, his updated views on Alphabet and much more. It's always a treat bringing Francois on the show, so I really hope you enjoy our conversation.
Preston Pysh
Since 2014 and through more than 180 million downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host plaything.
Stig Brodersen
Welcome to the Investors Podcast.
Clay Fink
I'm your host, Clay Fink and today it's such an honor to be joined by Francois Rochon. Francois, thank you for taking the time for our listeners today.
Francois Rochon
My pleasure.
Clay Fink
So I had the pleasure of reading your annual letter recently which I wanted to chat with you about today. So anyone who knows you knows that you're a big fan of great works of art and on the front of each annual letter you feature a new masterpiece for readers. When reading your letters, I can't help but think that just the letter itself is also a masterpiece, as you really put a lot of time and effort into writing each annual letter. And I should also mention that all of your letters are on your website for Javerny Capital. I was curious if you could just talk a little bit about why you put so much time into the creative aspect of writing for your partners.
Francois Rochon
Well, I try to treat partners like I'd like to be treated if I was in their shoes. So if I was an investor with the portfolio manager, I want to know what he thinks, why he invested in those securities, and how is the portfolio doing and how the companies we own are doing. So I Try to give a lot of information about what's happening with the holdings, the companies we own, how the portfolio has performed, of course, over the long term. And I really tried to give the information I would like to have if I was in their shoes.
Clay Fink
And I think on page one of every single letter, I love that you highlight to your investors that they truly are partners, as each partner is invested alongside the portfolio managers in terms of the stocks they're invested in. So everyone's in the same boat and all the incentives are aligned. Why don't most investment managers view their investment business as a partnership?
Francois Rochon
Well, I cannot really speak for others. I would guess that it's tough because usually the right thing to do for clients, it's not exactly. Not all the time, but often it's not exactly what they'd like to be doing. So when the market is going down, a lot of investors want to sell or reduce their equity exposure. Some money managers, they don't want to lose their clients and they don't want their clients to be disappointed. So they'll perhaps bend a little bit. What they think would be the right thing to do, just that the client is happy. And that's a little strange because usually in any business you want to please a client, the client is always right. I would say in investing it's a little different. Sometimes you have to fight a little bit with your clients so that you convince them that you're doing the right thing for them long term. And I think that's why it's so important that we're in the same boat. I'm not promising results to clients. What I promise is that we'll all be in the same securities. If I do well, they'll do well. I think that's very important. So what I recommend the clients is what I'm doing for myself. So that's the way I've approached this business. When I started it, 1998, so 26 years ago. I think that's the right way to approach, but it's not necessarily easy on a business way of looking, of doing that. But I think long term, that's the right approach.
Clay Fink
Yeah, I think getting that pushback from your clients ties into the tribal gene you've touched on in the past. When we look back at 2024, what sticks out to you at a high level? And what did you learn from the year?
Francois Rochon
It was a good year. I mean, in general, most stock market in the world did well. Most indexes had, you know, more than the average year. So if you think that the long term equity do 8, 9 or 10% a year. Most markets were higher than that this year. So it was a good year for stocks still in the US at least, very driven by the very, very large cap companies. So if you were not invested in those securities, it was a little tougher. So I don't have the exact number on top of my head, but I think the S And P did 25% last year. But probably the unweighted S&P 500 has down perhaps 13 or 14%. So it's been a good year. But if you were not invested in the main stocks of the S and P, it was an OH co year, but not as great as the one of the s and P500.
Clay Fink
And in 2024, the Russian global portfolio returned 13.6% after fees and your benchmark return 16.6%. Since your portfolio inception in 1993, your average return is 13.6% versus the benchmark's 9.4%. And when I was looking at the table that outlines the history of the fund versus the benchmark, what sort of stuck out to me is just how well the benchmark has done over the past decade. So your benchmark is a hybrid of the S&P 500, TSX and a couple of others. In seven of the past 10 years the benchmark returned 16% or more and the remaining three years had a negative return which brought the average over the last decade to around 9.7%. So slightly higher than I'd say your stock market average and not quite as high as I would have anticipated. Looking at all those double digit years, what implications does the benchmark doing quite well have for your business, if any?
Francois Rochon
Well, The S&P 500 at least has done extremely well, much better than the other averages or other indexes. Mostly because like we said, the top holdings have done so well. They've grown their earnings at much higher than average rates. The P ratio also has increased quite a lot. So I don't exactly remember the right precise figure. I think at the end of 2024, the top four of the S&P 500, so Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon, I think their average PE on 2025 is 33 times earnings. That's quite high historically. So it drives the whole index to an average PE of something like 23 times. But if you would consider the other 496 securities in the S&P 500, the average PE is probably 19 times, which is a little closer to historical. Norris, still a little higher. We're in the high side of valuation historically.
Clay Fink
And you had mentioned in your letter that some of your retail holdings didn't perform as well as you would have hoped. Includes companies like Five Below and Lululemon and then some other names that did quite well are software type companies. So Meta Alphabet Booking Holdings, Constellation Software. Over the years, has your strategy changed in terms of the business models or industries you like to be invested in?
Francois Rochon
Not really. I think I've been always open to all industries, all sorts of companies. I really try to find great companies, companies that have some kind of competitive advantage. It can be a little harder when you go into technology securities because this world is changing so fast. How sure can you find a durable competitive advantage? Because if the competitive advantage is not durable, it's not really a competitive advantage. You want it to be large and you want it to be durable. And so probably with the experience of having more than three decades now of investment experience, I've learned that a lot of companies that are dominating in the technology field, sometimes they miss a turn and they lose their mojo, which, hey, could use that word, and they don't maintain their competitive leverage. And we could look at many, many companies that 10 years ago, 20 years ago they were dominating and they're not today. So I think that's a big lesson. But we did very well with some technology companies. But I think they all had kind of a very sustainable competitive advantage, or at least they were in some kind of niche that prevented competitors to attack their castle. The mouth around the castle company like Constellation Software. I think it's a very interesting example. Yes, they are in the technology industry, but I think they have very dominating business in all sorts of industries linked to the software, a lot of recurring revenues and a lot of niche markets. And I think that makes them less vulnerable perhaps to new changes in the technology world. And if you look at the two companies like Meta and Google, well, Alphabet, they're not really, in my opinion, technology companies. They're advertising companies and they've built this incredible network and these incredible algorithms, but it's not changing that fast. I mean, when you think about Facebook and Instagram, it's basically the same business Today it was 10 years ago. You know what I've changed is the number of users and the number of ads they're able to sell to all those users. And I think that's fantastic. Businesses.
Clay Fink
Yeah. I can't help but think about the strong bias I can have in getting pretty interested in technology and software companies for some of the reasons you just mentioned where these are Asset light, you tend to see them scale really well, you see high margins and whatnot. Do you put guardrails on yourself to prevent too much concentration into one particular industry or sector?
Francois Rochon
Well, we try to have a group of diverse businesses and diverse industries, but I think it's much more important to own great companies to have some kind of proper diversification. I think with 20 to 25 names you're diversified enough so you don't have a big weight in one single security that could really hurt you if something goes wrong. And it's also concentrated enough so that you have some odds of beating the index because of course, the more stocks you own, the less the odds of beating the index. So you want the right balance in the numbers. And I think that that right balance is 20 to 25 names. Of course, don't want them all in the same industry. But I think it's much more important to we find great companies. There's many sectors that we do avoid. Everything linked to natural resources or commodities. We think it's very hard to, it's not impossible, but it's very hard to build a competitive advantage when you're selling a commodity. So we just stay away from those industries. And we don't like industries also that lot of regulation. So we're not very interested in investing in utilities or and healthcare related businesses where there's lots of business with Medicare or Medicaid so that you can be sensitive to some changes in political reimbursement rates. So I like for instance medical equipment companies because I think they're much more stable than some healthcare services business. So yes, we want diversification, but there's many sectors that we do avoid, but nothing against those sectors, just that it's very hard to have a competitive advantage in those sectors, in my opinion. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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Clay Fink
All right, back to the show and from the beginning of your career, you've been an advocate of not trying to time the market and always being fully invested for the long term whenever possible. And it's easy to believe that now isn't the best time to buy stocks, because we just had two phenomenal years in 2023 and 2024. And when we go back through history, it tends to show that we're in for a wild ride when we have two 20 plus percent years for the S&P 500. What do you think people might be missing when they say today isn't a great time to buy stocks and it's a better time to stay in something like cash?
Francois Rochon
Well, you said it there, Clay. I think from day one I wanted to be 100% invested in the stock market. And there's many reasons for that. But when I did my self education in investing, I read all I could find on the great investors. Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Peter Lynch, Phil Fisher, John Templeton. And they all had different ways of finding companies and different ways of investing a portfolio. I mean, Peter lynch could own 800 names and Warren Buffett five. So different style. But they had two things in common. The first thing is they look at stocks as part ownership of businesses. So they were investors in terms of acquiring companies, not trading stocks. And the second thing, they all believed that you could not predict the market. So I'm not saying that they were always 100% invested, but they were convinced that the market could not be predicted. It was a waste of time to try to predict that. So from day one, I decided that my mission would be to be invested in 20 to 25 companies and to act as an owner of those companies. And if they increase their intrinsic value at let's say 12, 13, 40% annually, eventually the stocks will reflect that. So that's my mission, is to find companies that if I own them many, many years, eventually the companies do well. I know that the stocks will do well. But you're right, there's some periods where valuation are much lower. Do remember very well the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009, which I labeled the opportunity of a generation where you could find great companies at less than 10 times earnings. Of course you don't find those in the recent years. But my goal is not necessarily to when I invest in a stock is to make 15, 16, 17% annually. My goal is to optimize my capital to put it in what I believe will do the best, will do very well. And if it's companies that will yield 12 or 13% instead of 15 or 16, well, I think that's still better than the 3 or 4% that I can get with treasury bills. So your opportunity cost is the right way to look at things. What are the 2025 names that I believe are the best opportunities for Mac capital, for the capital of our clients at Sibernay. And that's the way I look at it. So, yes, I much prefer to buy, let's say Disney at 9 times earnings instead of 18 times, but I still think at 18 times it will do okay. And of course, it's better at nine times, but we're not there. So my job is not to wait for the perfect opportunity, is to allocate the capital and what I believe are the best opportunities that are available today. And the great thing is with the stock market, there's always something interesting to do. There's always some companies that for some reason or the other, they're not that popular with Wall street and you can purchase them at reasonable valuation. And I've never, In the last 31 years I've been doing this. I don't remember a period when there wasn't some opportunity and some securities.
Clay Fink
That's a wonderful point. I think a number of investors like to paint broad strokes on the market and say, here's what The S&P 500 is priced at. The market's expensive, but what they fail to recognize is you can sift through that list and find plenty of opportunities if you look hard enough.
Francois Rochon
Yep, always.
Clay Fink
So that first attribute before you mentioned not predicting the market, you mentioned viewing yourself as an owner of businesses. And you estimate what you call owner's earnings for each company in your portfolio to judge their progress over time. I was curious if you could talk a bit about how you go about estimating the owner's earnings for each company.
Francois Rochon
Well, it's pretty easy. Just take the portfolio and the number of shares I own for each company and multiply that by the earnings. So really, I'm doing a calculation. Let's say I was a private holding company and I owned 25 companies in that holding. How would I judge the performance of my investment from one year to the other? Well, I would just calculate the earnings generated by the company owned and compare it to the previous year. So if earnings are up 12%, well, there's good chance that the intrinsic value of those business has increased 12%. That's not the perfect measurement, but I think it's. Consider that it's about 25 companies. The whole thing I think makes sense, and valuation process is the right way to look at it. So I multiply the number of shares by the earnings per share of every company and add them up and compare it to the previous year. So I think this year it was 12% in terms of earning growth and we have a dividend of probably 0.5.6%. So it add up to 12.7% when you put the two together. So that's been what I consider the intrinsic performance of the portfolio. And the important thing with the owner's earning table is to look over many years and it's pretty incredible when you look at it how highly correlated those two are the performance of the intrinsic business and the performance of their stocks in the long run. And I talk about the close to 13% annual growth in earnings per share, owner's earnings of the company's own over the years. The securities themselves have done about 13% annually. So and it makes sense in the stock market can be very volatile, can be very irrational from time to time, but in the long run it always reflect the intrinsic value of businesses. And Ben Graham used to say that the market was manic depressive in the short term, but in the long term it was a waiting machine. And I think that's still many decades after the intelligent investor. That's still the right phrase about the stock market.
Clay Fink
Yeah, I love how it can help simplify the game of investing. I'm always reminded of a Will Danoff in William Green's book Richer, Wiser, Happier. He shared with William just a simple phrase that stocks follow earnings. You illustrated intrinsic growth of the portfolio has been closely aligned with the growth in earnings per share. And I have the numbers right here where the stock prices increased since 1996 by 3,344% and the intrinsic value or the owner's earnings increased by approximately 3,266%. So practically 13% annual growth for each. I also ran across this other chart online of a meta the stock price over the past five or so years alongside the earnings per share. And it's, it's amazing the difference of when that earnings per share fell off in 2022, the stock price just got absolutely hammered. And then once the EPS recovered, market sentiment quickly recovered right along with it. I had one more question related to owner's earnings. So how do you think about reinvestments and R and D&CPEX as it relates to owner's earnings and the intrinsic growth of your portfolio companies?
Francois Rochon
Well, I guess R and D already expands so the earnings are, you know, after R and D expenses, probably in terms of expenses of new investments. We'll look at that if all the cash flows goes into capex and new acquisition or things like that. It's important for the long term that these are wise decision and capital allocation is done properly. That's why I like companies that have lots of free cash flow and not all of them, but many of the companies we own, they use that free cash flow to buy back shares. So if they grow earnings by 9 or 10% and they buy back 4 or 5% of the shares each year, while the earnings per share increase goes to 14 or 15% annually and we have many companies in the portfolio I'm thinking like Booking or highserv, they are buying back shares aggressively. And if the stock price is reasonably valued, that's usually a very good allocation of capital. It's better than investing in other projects that are not as strong as the existing business or some acquisition that perhaps Peter lynch would say diversification instead of just buying back the shares of the company you already know very well and it's worth more. I would say that capital allocation is very important when we look at the. And when we make a final decision for an investment.
Clay Fink
Absolutely. Let's jump to your podium of errors. So each year you famously highlight three errors you've made during the year or in years prior, similar to how Buffett oftentimes shares his investment mistakes and his letters as well. Can you talk about how helpful it's been for you to write down and ponder the mistakes you've made and sharing them with your partners?
Francois Rochon
Yes, I think it's a vital part of improving ourselves as investors to look at the mistakes. So I have a section in the annual letter called five Year Postmortem. So we always look at the decision buy and sell of five years ago. But the podiumo error, it's really about the big mistakes and most of them are what the Warren I would call mistakes of omission, that commission but things you didn't buy. And there's lots of companies that I don't really understand or they are outside my circle of competence, have done extremely well. And there's nothing wrong with just staying away from things you don't understand very well. But some companies I did understand very well and I did not invest, usually for futile reason. Main one being not ready to pay a line. Perhaps a higher P ratio. I'd like to. And that's a tough balance because you want to be very conservative and have a margin of safety to get back to Bangram again. So you want to buy a company that not only has great fundamentals but have a margin of safety in terms of valuation. But sometimes you'll miss great returns because perhaps you should have paid a little higher PV than you were ready to do. And the example of Cintas, this year's gold medal, is a good example because I knew the company very well, I understood the business, a very simple business, and the valuation was reasonable, perhaps not a bargain, but reasonable. And I knew that the acquisition of GMK Services would really add to sales, earnings and margins. And I didn't do it. And I think the stock is up six or seven wait times since then. So it was a big mistake. So usually the big mistakes are companies that are in your circle of understanding that you did not purchase because perhaps you wanted to be too prudent, because great companies are not that common. So when you do find them, if the valuation is not extreme, and there are some examples that I think they're great companies with the valuation just too high. But if it's reasonable, you should purchase some shares and, you know, if the stock go down 20%, you can just buy more. So it's not the end of the world.
Clay Fink
I also wanted to touch on the final piece of your letter before I move on to a couple of your holdings, if you don't mind. So in the conclusion, you wrote about how risk management in equity investing boils down to just four considerations. So I was curious if you could talk about those four.
Francois Rochon
Yeah, I thought a lot about it, because the risk of an equity portfolio, I believe, is way too much focused on volatility. And I think that's not the right way to look at it. And in fact, I would say that volatility is a good thing. You want more of it, you want a lot of opportunities. Sometimes for a stock to go down 50% without any reason, that's not a bad thing, just an opportunity to buy more, even sell something else and buy more of what you already own. That looks much more attractive. So I think the stereotype that Risky calls volatility is not the right way to look at it. But I wanted to be very thorough and think about what is really the risk of an investment portfolio. And I tried to come up with four dimensions. I would say the first one, yeah, we talked about it, diversification. I think the right balance is 20 to 25 names. That's the right balance for me. I mean, if you talk about sadly passed away, but if you talk to Charlie Munger, probably he would have said that three or four or five great companies is way enough. And I know some investors that have 100 names, but for me the right number is 20 to 25, where, like I said, it's concentrated enough so that you have good odds of beating the averages. But it's also diversified enough that if you make a mistake or just the nature of the capitalist system, that sometimes companies are a victim of some random things or new changes or competition that it's very hard to find permanent winners. So you have to accept that. So almost any company, there's always an intrinsic risk that there'll be changes in their business model or in their environment that make them a little risky, of course, and that's the second part of that process. But you have to look at the intrinsic risk of each company. But first, I think that having 20 to 25 name is diversification enough. If you have four or five name, well, you have to be very sure that you understand those business very, very well. And you have a large margin of safety in terms of the balance sheet and the valuation. I have good friends, great investors that have done well owning 506 security, so it's still possible. So the second dimension, which is probably the most important one, is the quality of the company owned. So like I said, we want companies that have a competitive advantage. Some ways that they protect their economic castle with a moat from invaders. Those that want to take your castle, want to take your business. And usually great companies realize great return on capital and great margin without the use of leverage. If you need a lot of leverage to have good return on capital, it's usually not a sign that it's that great of a business. So we don't like it when companies have a lot of debt on the balance sheet. So that's, I think the lower the level of leverage, lower the risk, the intrinsic risk of the business. And also accounting is very important. You know, when you analyze the intrinsic value, you try to assess the earnings. There's an old saying that earnings is an opinion and cash flow is a reality. Usually the difference between the two will be aggressive accounting. So I always look at how the accounting is done at a company and I quite often come up with my own calculation of earnings. And sometimes it's very close to what the company has announced in their account and the 10K and 10Qs. But sometimes it's quite different. But that's an opinion. That's my opinion of the earnings. And I like companies that are very conservative in their accounting. And I think it's much more than just accounting. It's a sign of how the people at the top of the companies are. If they're conservative in the accounting, they are probably conservative in everything else. And if they're aggressive in accounting, they're perhaps a little aggressive in everything else too. So that's usually a kind of a sign of the company culture when they have a very conservative accounting. And we talk about Meta. If you look at Meta's financial statements, it's probably one of the simplest business I've seen and everything is expense, so almost nothing is capitalized. And I like that. So when you look at the earnings of Meta, I like to say it's like the worst case scenario. So it's probably the real earning is probably a little higher. So you can't say that about all the businesses, I can assure you that. So yes, the intrinsic quality of the business, competitive advantage, having a durable advantage, but also looking at the accounting and the balance sheet, I think these are very, very important. So after that I found companies that meet your criteria comes a third part of the risk assessment, how much you have to pay for those companies. So that's the valuation part. And again we go back to Ben Graham, the importance of marginal safety. You don't want to have valuation that discount many, many years of growth in advance because that's the nature of capitalist system. There'll be recessions, there'll be some potholes, there'll be some problems that almost every company will encounter at some point in their existence. And if you have a very high valuation that has discounted many years of growth, when the tough years arrive, there'll probably be a reevaluation of the P ratio by Wall Street. And those can be very painful years. So like I wrote in the annual letter, of course, a company that trades at 40 times earnings is, if everything else is equal, is riskier than a similar company that trades at 20 times earnings. So valuation is one dimension of trying to measure the risk of your portfolio. So we have, like we talked about the owner's earnings, but we try afterward to come up with the kind of assessment of valuation of the portfolio. And historically, if you look at our portfolio, the average P ratio has been very similar to the s and P500. Probably it's a little lower these days because like we explained, The S&P 500P is a little higher than because of the top four of the index, but usually it's very close. So to me, we own companies that are growing the intrinsic value by, let's say 12% per year plus we receive a 1% dividend. So that's a 13% intrinsic growth. And the S&P 500 probably as a whole, over many years will grow their earning 6 to 7% a year, give a 2% dividend, so you get an 8 to 9% return. So we have probably a 4% better in terms of intrinsic performance of the portfolio at a similar valuation. To us, that's level of risk in terms of valuation, I think is reasonable. And finally, the fourth part, which is not really linked to the companies themselves or the stock market, it's really about the investor themselves. We talked about it at the beginning of the podcast, but I think it's a mistake trying to predict the stock market. It's a mistake, but doesn't prevent many people trying to do it. And I think the more you try to predict the stock market, the more you trade in general, I think the lower the return of the portfolio. So increased trading increased. Predicting the market, I think increases the portfolio's risk. And I don't think a lot of people understand that very well. I mean, John Bogle talked about ETFs and said that it was like giving matches to a Pearlmaniac. I don't remember the exact number, but I think the average holding period of the ETF of the S&P 500 is something like 17 days. I mean, how ridiculous is that? So at the ease of trading of synchronies like ETFs gives the illusion that they have a riskless investment or approach, but in fact, the very fact that they're trading so often increases the risk of the portfolio. They're not passive investors at all. They own passive investments, but the way they trade them makes them active investors. And like I said, I think the more you trade, the higher the risk of reducing your return going forward.
Clay Fink
Yeah, and I'll also mention that Jivernie's average holding period for a stock is eight years.
Francois Rochon
Yep. Used to be five years, but we've grown to be more patient over the years.
Clay Fink
It's quite a good attribute and shows, you know, how good you are at selecting those quality companies. And when I look at the four considerations you shared here, we have diversification, quality of the business valuation and investor zone behavior. And to a large extent, we have a pretty big control over a lot of these aspects. We can control how diversified we are. We can control what types of quality companies we want in our portfolio. We control what valuation we decide to enter at. We can't control the valuation the market offers us, but we can take advantage when those opportunities are given to us. And then, of course, we can control our own behavior, which, pointing to the tribal gene you've discussed before, can be extremely difficult for some people to control their behavior during market panics.
Francois Rochon
Well, I think if they had to return in one sentence, you want to own great companies for many, many years, and they hope that in the long term, the longer you own securities, the higher the odds that the market will reflect the intrinsic value of the business. So that's what you want to do. You want time to be on your side. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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Francois Rochon
All right, back to the show.
Clay Fink
I wanted to take the chance to chat about a couple of your holdings. So According to your 13 Fs, you acquired shares in Booking holdings in Q1 and Q2 2024. And I love how with a number of your holdings, you've been following the company in the industry for 10 or 20 plus years. So in this case, you were following Expedia in the early 2000s and discovered one of their main competitors, Booking Holdings. Talk about what you admire about this business and what led to you eventually making it a core position in your fund.
Francois Rochon
Yeah, I don't know if you remember that, but Expedia was a spinoff of Microsoft, so it became public, I think it was in early 2000. I don't think it was profitable at that time, so it didn't fit all the criteria. But I thought that the Internet was really the way of the future for traveling. I mean, when I looked at that the first time, I said, well, the travel agency business, not sure that's a great future. So I think I've been right on this. And Expedia and Booking and Priceline have done extraordinarily well and they're almost now dominating the industry. But the transition to everything online for travel is not completed. I think it still has some good years to really be completed, if I could say that that way. I think personally that Booking is probably the best managed of all the companies in that industry. And I would include the recent Airbnb, which has really transformed that industry. And Booking I think was wise enough to realize that Airbnb was a threat and they started their own alternative lodging business. And I think the Last few quarters, that segment of the business has grown faster than rbb. So booking has done a very good job of adapting to that threat. And also another good thing that I believe booking did was probably some six or seven years ago, they made the decision of transiting the business from what they call being an agent to a merchant, where they used to be mostly a third party business and now they acquire hotel rooms or airplane tickets or other travel items and they sell it. So they have a more direct relationship with their clients. And also they have increased the relationship with clients in terms of using their apps instead of perhaps using a search engine like Google. So they really done a good job the last six or seven years of increasing their relationship with the client and at the same time, I believe, increasing their moat. So at first there was a cost in terms of margins because the agent had a much better margin than the merchant business. So I was a little worried at first that the margin would be much lower. And I wasn't sure if they would be able to get back to what they were, let's say, in 2016 or 17. But if you look at it, I think the highest margin in terms of net margin was close to 34% in 2014, and in 2022 it was 23% and 2023 it was 26% and last year it was 27%. So they're not back to the level they were 10 years ago, but it's still a good margin level. And what I like about booking is they generate a lot of cash. And I talk about the importance of conservative accounting. And booking is very conservative. Everything is expense. So when you look at earnings, it's free cash earnings. And they've been buying back shares with the excess cash. In the last five or six years, they bought back on average 4% of this share each year. Even in the very tough year of 2020 and 2021, they were still buying back shares and they were still profitable, which is incredible because in 2020, anything related to travel was not profitable and booking really continued to be profitable. Earnings went down, but still not in the red. So they've done an incredible job. And I believe when we purchased shares last year, we paid something like 19 times earnings or something like that. So the valuation was very reasonable for a company I believe can grow 12 to 14% annually. And probably a third of that will come from buybacks because that's such a high level of cash generation and I think good capital allocation policies. So I think it's a great company. And the Q4 was very good. So so far it's been almost a year now. It's been a portfolio, it's been a good investment.
Clay Fink
Yeah.
Stig Brodersen
I'm seeing just over $8 billion in operating cash flow and over 6.5 billion.
Clay Fink
Allocated to share buybacks, which is pretty incredible to see for a business generating 85% gross margins.
Stig Brodersen
And they're still able to grow in the meantime.
Clay Fink
So at first glance, the valuation does seem quite reasonable. Today it's around a PE of 25. Your return on invested capital is over 40%, and it's almost surprising to me that it sort of trades in line with the market. Why do you think the market doesn't place a premium on this business? Is it the travel aspect or do you think there's something else?
Francois Rochon
Well, there's, of course, the nature of the travel industry. I mean, it's a little bit cyclical. When there's a recession, people travel less. But we could say about same thing about ads. When there'll be a recession. Both probably meta and. Well, Facebook and Google will probably experience a little bit drop in ads, so. And travel, it's a little bit cyclical, but still great businesses. And you have to accept that it's just almost any industry. There's ups and down in the economic environment. But what counts again, get back to Warren Buffett, is the moat, the moat around the business. And I think booking moat is pretty strong and I think it has got stronger in the last five years. So they did good things and we talked about that, but they did good thing to increase that moat. And I think personally, in my opinion, their moat is stronger than Airbnb or Expedia. What I also like about booking is that they're very good, I think, in capital allocation, which is another positive. So not only is this a great business, but there's no diversification, to use a bit of lynch word. And they're just buying back stock with the excess cash. And since the stock is reasonably valued, it's a good allocation. I mean, yeah, it's like you said, it's probably around 25 times trailing, but Ford, it's probably 21 times estimates of this year. So it's reasonable. And you think about it, it's a little lower than the S&P 500P, but I believe that it's a superior business.
Clay Fink
Another recent addition to the portfolio is Brown and Brown, which is a smaller holding based on the 13F I was looking at. And Brown and Brown was featured in last year's letter in the podium of errors. So it's yet another company you've been following for more than 20 years that's in the insurance brokerage business. What prompted you to get back into the stock after owning it in the 2000s?
Francois Rochon
Yeah, we owned the company, I think for six years from 2003 to 2009. I think when we sold it, there was many reasons that there was a change in management. I was a little skeptical that the new management would be as good as the previous one. And also they were entering a soft market, so earnings went a little bit sideways for a few years, but that was the reason I put it in mistakes section. I missed it when it turned out that the new management did a great job and they were able to rekindle the growth rate probably in 2013 or 14. And since then they've probably grown earnings close to 15% annually. So it's been a fantastic business. And in fact, I would argue that the most insurance brokerage businesses are quite impressive businesses. I mean, Aon is a great business. And there's another one what's named Archer Gallagher. I think it's another insurance brokerage business and it's done incredibly well over the years. I think they've grown in the last decade something also 15 to 16% annually. So these are much more stable businesses than the insurance companies themselves. Because in the insurance companies, like Warren would say, surprises are really positive. You make a mistake and underwriting, you can see the results of that mistake five years later. So it's very hard for an investor to really assess is the reserves and the earnings that the insurance companies are releasing is not the reality. And they're not of bad faith. It's just the nature of the insurance industry itself. So any investment and insurance company, you have to be quite careful. I mean, I sleep well at night with Berkshire or Markel, but some other insurance companies can be a little riskier. But in terms of the brokerage firm like Ron Brown, they don't take risks. So I think they're very solid businesses. Much less riskier than any insurance underwriters. And they've grown mostly through consolidating the industry and they've done a great job at it. And if you look at Brown and Brown, I think like I said, the last 10 years the earnings per share has been growing at 15% annually, which is quite incredible. Yes, we've been in a hard market for a while, but I think they can continue just by consolidating, by making acquisition and increasing their level of market share can continue to grow at, let's say 12 to 14% annually. Now the question is, why do we have such a small weight, a little more than 1%. Well, the valuation was a little high so we paid something 25 times earnings, which is really my kind of maximum. Usually I'm ready to pay. So if the stock was trading, let's say 17 or 18 times, I would probably have the sense that I have a larger margin on safety and I would probably be ready to have a higher weight. So I was hoping, perhaps not my partners, but I was hoping the stock would go down after we purchased it and we could increase it to 2 or 3 or 4%. But I think it's up 15 to 20% since we bought it. So the P ratio, it's even a little higher today. Yeah, 28 times my estimates of 2025. It's on the high side of historical norms but still I think it's a great company and I think long term it's going to do well. So by any chance the stock goes down the next quarters or years if everything is intact, could certainly add to it in Brown.
Clay Fink
And Brown is run by CEO Powell Brown who's the grandson of the founder. So the company was started back in 1939 and now it's run by the third generation family member. And I sort of see echoes of the way you run your firm where you of course are treating your investors like partners. And many times with these family run companies they're treating their shareholders like partners because family run companies tend to think long term, tend to have a lot of skin in the game and they're in the same boat as their shareholders as well. To what extent do you like to look for that in the companies you invest in?
Francois Rochon
I always liked it when the founder is still the CEO of the company. To me it was always a plus. I remember many years ago we owned the Fastanhole and was his name. Robert Kurlin was the founder and CEO and he owned, I don't remember but let's say 20% of the shares and that's one thing I like and one reason we've owned Heiko for many years now is that we really like the Mendelssohn family. I think they've done a great job there. So we like it when the founder or the family founder is still in charge or and still own a lot of shares. Of course it's a little different when it's the third generation but you know, if the culture education has been passed properly can be very good and can be the equivalent of the founder being still in charge and I think Power Brown has done a great job and.
Clay Fink
If we shift gears here to Alphabet. Munger has once called this one of the best businesses in the world. And I would say this historically has just been a dominant business model rather than a family run operation.
Stig Brodersen
And it was actually today they announced.
Clay Fink
The acquisition of Wiz, a cloud security business for $32 billion. And this company was started just five years ago. And it makes me ask if they're entering into diversification phase here of their business. I was curious if you had a chance to look over the acquisition at all.
Francois Rochon
Well, I read about it, I don't have any insight but I remember when they purchased YouTube many years ago, people were all skeptical also and it turned out to be an overrun. So who knows? I think when you decide to become a shareholder in a business, you have to trust in the management decision judgment. I would say if you don't trust the management, why should you be a shareholder? So I think Google historically, they've been around for what 25 years now, historically has done very good acquisition and very good and wise decision. And like you said, it's one of the best business in the world. So so far I think they've proved that they know how to build a business, but it's just the nature also of that industry that it can change. And perhaps AI can be a threat for Google. It's an opportunity, but it can also be a threat. And so many companies are trying to find ways of bypassing Google in their search but so far they have kept something like 80% market share in search engine and it's been a fantastic business and last year results were really great. So there are some worries, some of them are political. I mean there's some pressure from the government applying to prove that they're a monopol and a monopolistic situation and they want to kind of attack or break up the company. So there are some worries about what could affect them. But so far those worries have not materialized and the company is still dominating, still doing well. But we are aware that AI could be a challenge for Google and just Amazon has done a very good job in going to the search, well similar search businesses and selling ad. So it's not a monopoly, that's for sure in my opinion. But it's still a great business. And as for the latest acquisition, well, we'll see it turns out. But I would give the benefit of the doubt to the management of Google.
Clay Fink
Yeah, it's been amazing to me how well they continue to grow now. Search queries continue to grow. Ad revenue continues to grow. I think a lot of people are just saying LLMs are coming for Google searches lunch. So we'll see how that is going to pan out over time. And it's also been interesting just to see how many value investors have been investing in Alphabet just because of, of course, the valuation at a share price of 160, the PE is around 18 or so. Of course there's a lot of investors interested in this company. But five, ten years from now, who knows what Google search is going to look like?
Francois Rochon
Well, you know, Clay, when we purchased it in 2011, so 14 years ago, the main worry back then is that would Google still be as dominating in the mobile industry as they were on the desktop? And that was the main worry of Wall street debt. And the p ratio was 15 times. So this was a 25% growth company and you could purchase it at 15 times. But there were some worries and they were valid worries. But when we looked at it, we believed that they could adapt to this new device and they certainly have. I don't have the numbers top of my head, but let's look at the earnings here. So this year estimates are for Alphabet to earn something like $9 per share. And if you go back to 2018, when we bought it was $0.81. So it's a more than tenfold increase in 14 years. So it's been a good growth. So of course it's much larger today. So it's going to be much harder to grow earnings that fast going forward. But I still think they can grow around 12% a year in terms of earnings per share in the next five years or so. And so valuation of like you said, 18 times is not demanding.
Clay Fink
Speaking of LLMs and AI, I was curious if you use any of these tools in your research process or in your investing approach.
Francois Rochon
Well, I would say in the research we can use it for some time or we'll ask questions from ChatGPT for instance, or Google, but it's still a competitor. But it's a very good product. And we'll ask questions of information and we'll always validate those information that received to be sure that there was no mistakes there. But I would say accelerate the research process if we have precise questions on historical things or data or competitive position or who are the main players in industry. So I think it's very helpful. I don't think that it can really improve your decision process. I think that's a different thing. Using gathering information quicker is not the same thing of making wiser decision. I think in terms of decision making, I still believe that human intelligence is probably more useful, so I like to use it to gather information quicker. But when I think about investment, I try to really, like I said, to assess the competitive position, assess the quality of management, assess the quality of the business and trying to vary, always using a margin of safety, trying to get a general view of what I think the company will earn in five years. And I think when it concerns the future, I think your wins are still of advantage in terms of judgment.
Clay Fink
Well, Francois, I always enjoy bringing you on the show and I appreciate the opportunity to chat about your letter and your investment approach for the audience here. Before I let you go, how can the audience learn more about you and Jabirni Capital if they'd like?
Francois Rochon
Well, it's pretty simple. We have a website, nguyenicapital.com and they can go there and there's lots of things to read.
Stig Brodersen
Wonderful.
Clay Fink
Thanks so much. I really appreciate it.
Francois Rochon
Thank you. Thank you for inviting me.
Stig Brodersen
All right everybody, thank you for tuning in to today's episode with Francois Rochon. I wanted to take a minute to share some details on a new event that TIP will be hosting from September 24th through the 28th, 2025 in Big Sky, Montana. The event is called the Investors Podcast Summit. We'll be gathering around 25 listeners of the show to bring together like minded people and enjoy great company with a beautiful mountain view. We're looking to attract thoughtful listeners of the show who are passionate about value investing and are interested in building meaningful connections and relationships with like minded people. Many of our attendees will likely be entrepreneurs, private investors or portfolio managers. I'm thrilled to be hosting this special event for our listeners and can't wait to hopefully see you there. On our website we have the pricing, frequently asked questions and the link to apply to join us. So if this sounds interesting to you, you can check it out@theinvestorspodcast.com summit. That's theinvestorspodcast.com summit. We only have room for around 25 members of the audience, so be sure to apply soon if you'd like to join us with that. Thank you for your time and attention today and I hope you enjoy today's conversation.
Preston Pysh
Thank you for listening to tip. Make sure to follow. We study billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com this show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network Episode: TIP709: The Art of Long-Term Investing with François Rochon Release Date: March 28, 2025
Hosts: Stig Brodersen, Preston Pysh, Clay Fink, William Green, Clay Finck, Kyle Grieve
Guest: François Rochon, Founder of Rochon Global Portfolio
Stig Brodersen welcomes François Rochon, an esteemed investor who has successfully managed the Rochon Global Portfolio since 1993. François boasts an impressive track record, averaging a 13.6% annual return net of fees, outperforming the S&P 500’s 10.6% over the same period.
[02:23] François Rochon:
“I try to treat partners like I'd like to be treated if I was in their shoes. I want them to understand what I think, why I invested in certain securities, and how the portfolio is performing.”
François emphasizes the importance of transparency and treating investors as partners, ensuring that both he and his investors share the same stakes in the portfolio. This alignment fosters trust and long-term commitment.
[03:29] François Rochon:
“Sometimes you have to fight a little bit with your clients to convince them that you're doing the right thing for them long term.”
François highlights that unlike other industries where client satisfaction might drive decisions, investing requires maintaining discipline and sometimes going against short-term market sentiments to achieve long-term goals.
[05:20] François Rochon:
“Most stock markets in the world did well in 2024, driven by very large-cap companies. If you were not invested in those securities, it was a tougher year.”
Despite a robust performance in major indices, François notes that his portfolio, focused on select high-quality companies, achieved solid returns. He underscores the significance of concentrating investments in businesses with strong fundamentals.
François adopts a strategy centered around owning parts of great businesses rather than merely trading stocks. By focusing on intrinsic value and owner’s earnings, he aligns his investments with long-term business growth.
[17:29] François Rochon:
“My goal is to optimize my capital by putting it into what I believe will do the best over many years. Stocks will eventually reflect the intrinsic value of these businesses.”
He calculates owner’s earnings by multiplying the number of shares owned by the company's earnings per share, providing a clear metric to assess and compare the intrinsic growth of his portfolio over time.
[21:43] Clay Fink:
“You illustrated intrinsic growth of the portfolio has been closely aligned with the growth in earnings per share. You run the stock prices alongside earnings.”
The alignment between portfolio performance and actual earnings reinforces François’s belief in fundamental analysis over market speculation.
François outlines four key dimensions of risk management beyond mere volatility:
Diversification:
[29:33] François Rochon:
“Having 20 to 25 names is diversification enough for me.”
He maintains a concentrated portfolio of 20-25 high-quality companies to balance the potential for outperforming the market while mitigating significant losses from any single investment.
Quality of the Business:
Focuses on companies with durable competitive advantages, strong return on capital, low leverage, and conservative accounting practices.
Valuation:
Emphasizes purchasing stocks with reasonable valuations to ensure a margin of safety. François avoids overpaying, adhering to principles akin to Ben Graham’s value investing.
Investor Behavior:
Stresses the importance of controlling one’s behavior, avoiding market timing, and minimizing excessive trading to reduce portfolio risk.
[29:51] François Rochon:
“Increased trading and trying to predict the market increase the portfolio's risk and can reduce returns over time.”
[43:56] François Rochon:
“Booking has done an incredible job of adapting to threats like Airbnb by transitioning from a third-party agent to a merchant model, enhancing their moat and direct client relationships.”
François admires Booking Holdings for its strategic adaptability, strong cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation, including consistent share buybacks. Despite a higher PE ratio, he views the company’s sustainable growth prospects as justifying the valuation.
[50:50] François Rochon:
“Brown and Brown has grown earnings at 15% annually by consolidating the insurance brokerage industry, making it a stable and impressive business.”
François re-entered Brown and Brown after observing strong management performance and robust earnings growth. He appreciates the company’s low-risk profile compared to insurance underwriters and its effective market consolidation strategy.
François discusses Alphabet (Google) as a cornerstone investment, lauding its dominant market position and effective management. He acknowledges the potential challenges posed by AI but maintains confidence in Alphabet’s ability to navigate and innovate within the evolving technological landscape.
[56:32] Clay Fink:
“Five, ten years from now, who knows what Google search is going to look like?”
François remains optimistic, citing Alphabet’s historical adaptability and strategic acquisitions as indicators of continued success despite industry disruptions.
[60:55] François Rochon:
“We use tools like ChatGPT to gather information more efficiently, but decision-making remains a human-driven process.”
While François leverages AI to accelerate research and information gathering, he firmly believes that investment decisions should be based on human intelligence, judgment, and deep analysis of business fundamentals.
François Rochon encapsulates his investment philosophy by reiterating the importance of owning great companies for the long term, allowing intrinsic value to be recognized by the market over time.
[39:33] François Rochon:
“You want to own great companies for many, many years, and hope that in the long term, the market will reflect the intrinsic value of the business.”
Listeners interested in François’s strategies and insights can explore more through his website at riverncapital.com (as mentioned, though the transcript states "nguyenicapital.com", which may be a transcription error).
Notable Quotes:
[03:29] François Rochon:
“I promise that we'll all be in the same securities. If I do well, they'll do well.”
[29:33] François Rochon:
“Increased trading and trying to predict the market increase the portfolio's risk and can reduce returns over time.”
[39:33] François Rochon:
“You want to own great companies for many, many years, and hope that in the long term, the market will reflect the intrinsic value of the business.”
Key Takeaways:
This comprehensive conversation with François Rochon provides invaluable insights into the principles of long-term investing, risk management, and the importance of aligning investor and manager interests. His disciplined approach serves as a guiding framework for investors aiming to build sustainable and high-performing portfolios.