Transcript
Podcast Announcer (0:00)
You're listening to tip.
Kyle Grieve (0:03)
What do the world's greatest long term compounders have in common? You know, the rare businesses capable of delivering 20 plus percent returns for decades and turning early investments into life changing wealth. And more importantly, how exactly do they keep it? In today's episode, we're going to unpack this puzzle by breaking it into its essential elements, capital efficiency, reinvestment rates and the underappreciated role of time. You'll discover why so many iconic winners are serial acquirers of tiny niche businesses and how dominant market share, durable competitive advantages and smart capital allocation allow them to trade at premiums while still crushing the market's return. We'll dive into nine just remarkable case studies from, you know, manufacturers that quietly boost margins through elite working capital discipline to a vertical market software giant that really just cracked the code on perfect management incentives to companies with cultures that are just so strong that they can continue to compound through multiple CEO transitions. This episode is for long term investors seeking durable, low maintenance winners and for business owners looking to build cultures that attract talent, expand margins and create lasting competitive advantages. Let's jump right in.
Podcast Announcer (1:15)
Since 2014 and through more than 180 million downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Kyle Grieve.
Kyle Grieve (1:40)
Welcome to the Investors Podcast. I'm your host Kyle Grieve and today we're going to talk about a really, really interesting book that I've been going through and studying very, very closely and really, really enjoying because it really plays on my love of businesses that are compounders. So as an investor, we have to analyze what we're going to pay for a business. So why is it that some companies seem to generate exceptional returns even when they're priced at sky high multiples? So Nvidia is a business that probably comes to mind for pretty much anyone when discussing this exact problem. You could have bought this business in January of 2017 for 43 times earnings, which is just a sky high multiple. But if you bought it at that price, do you know what your return would have ended up being? 63% per annum. So traditional value investing advises buying stocks at a low price and then waiting for the market to recognize your view and then finally selling when price and value converge. But a business like Nvidia is a case study in the flaw in that strategy, and that is that an excellent business that can reinvest in itself at high rates of return is simply worth paying up for now. In the book the Compounders From Small Acquisitions to Giant Shareholder Returns by Aud Bjorn, Dibvad, Kettle Nyland and Adnan Hadi Fendik. Sorry if I butchered the names there. The authors outline their framework for evaluating businesses that they end up covering. All of these businesses were massive, massive winners. And they also tend to trade at pretty premium multiples to the market's multiple. We'll be diving into these business in a lot more detail shortly. But to understand why you can pay 43 times earnings for Nvidia and still make 64% per annum, you must understand one very straightforward concept. Shareholder value is created when a company earns a return on capital that exceeds its cost of capital. That is all you really need to know to purchase a business that can generate value for shareholders. The problem is that most businesses just struggle to do this. The forces of capitalism erode returns on capital as more fighters enter into the ring. Generally speaking, over a multi year time period, the cost of capital is exactly where returns of capital are drawn to like a moth to a flame. Only businesses with competitive advantages can stave off competition long enough to generate value. So if we acknowledge that most businesses just can't do this, why should we expect a company that can do this to trade at the exact same multiple as a majority that can't? And the answer is that we shouldn't expect it. A default cost of capital is something like 9.5%, which also happens to be the approximate return of the S&P 500. So if you can find a business that has returns on invested capital in excess of that 9.5%, then you're looking at a company that can create a lot of shareholder value simply by reinvesting its cash back into itself. For serial acquirers, that means buying more businesses. For Nvidia, it means investing in developing better hardware. Let's take two companies, Nvidia and IBM. IBM. Everyone's going to know Big Blue. It's a blue chip company at this point in its growth profile. If you look at its returns on capital, it's actually lower than its cost of capital. This means that growing the business will actually destroy shareholder value. That's why the company just doesn't reinvest profits and instead it pays them all back to shareholders as dividends and in buybacks. That's smart capital allocation. So as a result of the business's inability to create shareholder value from growth, the shares deserve to be traded at about nine times earnings to earn a return that's equal to the cost of its capital. But what about Nvidia, which can reinvest its profits at high levels? According to fiscal AI, Nvidia has an average ROIC of about 90% since 2017. To earn its cost of capital, assuming a growth rate of only 8%, you can pay 60 times earnings. That's nearly seven times more for Nvidia than for IBM. Now, it's essential to understand that assumptions have to be met for this to happen. And there's two. So the first one is that the business must maintain its ROIC in the future, and the second is that the growth rate must be maintained into the future. If you can make those assumptions, then you can understand why a business is worth significantly more than another one. The other problem that investors face is the problem of time. Most investors assume that a business will have its ROIC eroded over time by competitors. This is why in most discounted cash flow models, you're going to see a gradual decrease in the growth rate of cash flows, followed by a perpetual growth rate that is generally in line with inflation, which is, you know, 2 to 3%. However, outstanding businesses such as Nvidia completely buck that trend. Ten years ago, Nvidia had a ROIC of around 38%, and today it's 100%. Now, in the compounders, the authors write, what truly matters in investing in companies that are not only strong today, but are positioned to become even stronger over the next 10 to 15 years. In such cases, traditional valuation models can appear almost irrelevant. Instead, the focus should shift towards identifying businesses with durable competitive advantages, sustainable reinvestment potential, and the capacity to strengthen their market position over time. Another issue highlighted in the compounders is something called hyperbolic discounting. So in traditional finance, we use a method called exponential discounting, in which the discount factor remains constant. Due to this type of discounting, future cash flows are not valued as highly as those that are closer to the present. But as I've learned over many years, what traditional finance model tells us is often very different from reality. In fact, if we follow a phenomenon known as hyperbolic discounting, valuations decline rapidly for near term periods, quenching our thirst for instant gratification. After the present, the declines fall much more slowly compared to exponential discounting. So what exactly does this mean for a business that can compound? It means that it's human nature to use hyperbolic discounting. In hyperbolic discounting, the present value of cash flows far into the future is significantly higher than what is used in exponential discounting. For a business that can compound at high rates for a more extended period hyperbolic discounting values these businesses higher than the exponential model would suggest. The book suggests that this is a possible reason that businesses with strong long term growth prospects and the ability to sustain a high return on invested capital tend to trade at a premium, the authors write. It's likely that the market, whether consciously or not, prices these businesses using a discounting approach that more closely resembles hyperbolic rather than exponential discounting. Relying solely on exponential discounting to value long term compounders could lead to significant undervaluations of their true worth. Now let's get into the primary reason why the nine businesses that were outlined in the compounders have outperformed all indexes and grown 10k into $6.6 million over 35 years. An outstanding 20% KEGR while there are many, many ways a company can generate value over decades, there are really just two keys that the book goes over. The first one is high performing, decentralized cultures. After all, without a culture of excellence, mediocrity is just tolerated and high performing companies have a way of filtering out mediocrity. And the second is a durable reinvestment engine. Without high returns on invested capital and a place to invest excess capital, it's impossible to get the compound engine running. These two attributes are precisely what I look for in every company that I invest in, and in about 90% of the cases, it's precisely what I want to find. And while it sounds easy to look for, it's quite hard to find in reality. It's not always easy to determine a company's authentic culture. If you meet a CEO, chances are that he's going to be coming off on his best behavior, become seen as a very, very nice and skilled businessman. But it's not really until you maybe you hear stories from others that he's maybe a tyrant, rude, or he's unkind to his employees, or unkind to a waitress. And you may just not hear these stories until it's too late. When it comes to durability, all investors obviously want that. It's the key here to compounding. If a business has a return on invested capital of 50% this year and then zero the next year, it's pretty challenging to determine what a normalized number is going to be. I know that I want the certainty that a business can maintain or preferably even increase its return on invested capital over time, because that means it's a compounding engine. But as experience has taught me, I'm regularly wrong about that assumption. I spent a significant of my maintenance due diligence trying to determine whether a business can simply maintain its existing growth one way or if competitors are starting to chip away at it. Now, the compounders says that every company profiled in the book drove growth by turning time into a superpower. And they did this because they were able to generate large amounts of cash which could then be reinvested into the business at high rates of return. This virtuous cycle is what creates these incredible businesses that offer incredible shareholder returns. Now, there are three subcategories of compounding that you must understand while analyzing a business. The first one is a business's reinvestment rate. The reinvestment rate is a sum of organic capex and acquisitions divided by operating cash flow. If a company makes $100 million in operating cash flow, then invests 10 million in organic capex and $90 million in acquisitions, then it has a 100% reinvestment rate. And I get downright giddy when I see a business with a reinvestment rate like this. But you don't only want a high reinvestment rate. For a compounder to actually compound, you need that high ROIC that I mentioned earlier. For those unfamiliar with roic, it's net operating profits after tax divided by invested capital. So businesses require capital obviously to invest in themselves to generate more net operating profits after tax or no pap. It could be seen like having an option between two vending machines. So the first machine you put a dollar in and you get two cans of pop. The second one you put a dollar in and you only get one can of pop. Which soda machine are you going to prefer? Obviously you're going to want the one that gives you the highest output per dollar spent. And it's the exact same with business. You want a company that can deploy its capital at a high and sustainable rate of return. The final part of this equation is simply just time. The longer time a company can maintain a high reinvestment rate with a high roic, the better it is for the company and for shareholders. Let's imagine that we have two companies and briefly examine what they can do with their reinvestment rates and ROIC over a five year period. So company A has a 100% reinvestment rate and a 20% ROIC. If it starts with $100 million of no PAT in year zero, in the first year it's going to have 120 million. The following year is going to be about 144 million. By year five, it will be approximately $250 million. Now, company B is different they also have a 100 reinvestment rate, just to keep the numbers simple here, but they have a roic of only 10%. So similar to company A, they have 100 million in year zero. By year five, they have about 160 million of no pap. So the longer durations you go out, the bigger the difference, obviously. 160 million versus 250 million. If these two companies compound at the same ROIC with the same reinvest rate for 20 years, company A has 3800 in OPAP versus only 670 for company B. This is why time is the friend of the compounder. And this is why investors may struggle to value these businesses. Because it can just be challenging to forecast whether a company will continue to have a substantial capital efficiency number five years from now, let alone, you know, 10 or 20 years from now. So now that we understand the importance of reinvestment rate, ROIC and time, let's examine some of the standard character traits shared by the nine companies in this book. The first one relates to reinvestment, which we've already discussed in quite a lot of detail today. However, many of these companies can reinvest in two different ways, allowing them to reinvest even more capital at high rates of return. So these two approaches are through organic growth, where you invest in the business that you already have to drive further growth. Then there is a programmatic acquisition angle where the parent company can allocate capital to new businesses that are already generating cash and can be added to the portfolio. So another benefit for public companies involved in programmatic acquisitions is just the price that they pay. So with nearly all the businesses that are discussed in the book, a serial acquire arbitrage is attached to each acquisition that they make. A company such as, you know, Constellation Software trades on average over the last nine years at an EV to EBITDA about 28 times. However, they typically acquire a business at a multiple of around 5 times EV to EBITDA. So once Constellation acquires a company, it's automatically revalued at this higher level. Serial acquirers can do this because private markets offer a ton of inefficiencies compared to public markets. For instance, public companies have, you know, complete transparency in their financials and offer much better liquidity compared to a private company. This is part of the reason that there are so many of these attractive businesses in the private markets. Other advantages include things such as key personnel who can effectively run the business, limited numbers of customers and suppliers, and just lower sales thresholds, which creates less competition for deals. So I mentioned earlier that one of the fascinating aspects of compounding is to the role of time. If you double your money every five years, then doubling from 10 million to 20 million is obviously great. However, if you double 1 billion, you reach 2 billion. And the jump there is obviously a massive difference between the two, even though the time to double between them is the exact same. So if you're looking for a compounder, you need a business with resilience to get to that larger number at some point into the future. Now, there are two great ways to build resilience in business. The first is to protect your downside. Successful siriquires do this by having multiple revenue streams with different customers and suppliers. This added diversification can help protect and shield these businesses when certain subsidiaries are going through more challenging times. And this is not a matter of if, but when certain companies will be tied to very specific industries. And when those industries are at the bottom of the cycle, you're going to see deeply decreased top and bottom lines. And second is sustainability. This is a function of the business model and capital allocation. You want a business that can produce some sort of organic growth, even if it's in the low single digits. Then you want a business that can grow through value added acquisitions. You'd also prefer a business that can maybe optimize a business after it's acquired. This may involve centralizing certain backend functions such as, you know, accounting or erp. Or it might mean getting really hands on, removing parts of the business that aren't as attractive to make the overall business even better. Now here's what the book mentions on these two aspects of resilience. To reach the critical compounding phase, a business must survive and thrive during its early stages. Which is why having a strong foundation, the sprawling roots of a tree, is so essential. This means offering a diverse range of products to a wide variety of customers across multiple end markets. Achieving exponential growth, what some call reaching the second half of the chessboard, requires more than just aiming for the highest returns it demands avoiding catastrophic losses at all costs. By steering clear of single exposure risks and prioritizing long term resilience, firms position themselves to thrive in the fullness of time. Another area of emphasis for the compounders featured in this book is a focus on small niche industries and products. I love this concept because it's often what I look for in my micro cap bets. Why are small niche businesses so interesting to certain investors? Plenty of reasons. So niche businesses often fly under the radar of deep pocketed private equity, which are usually more interested in pursuing larger and growing markets. The book provides a great example of the Lyftco subsidiary called Brock, so it dominates the market of autonomously run demolition robots. The market size is only $300 million, so not that big and it's not growing that much, but they own approximately 70% of it. Niche markets also have their own benefits. When a business dominates a small market, it has significantly more pricing power when there's very little competition. There are very few alternatives to shop for when looking to replace a niche product or service, and some businesses have subsidiaries that are direct to consumer, while others focus purely on business to business or B2B sales. Many companies will have mission critical products or services that their customers cannot function without. A business like Heico, for instance, has a high degree of customer lock in with its customers in the aviation industry, which gives it pricing power and high level of customer retention. Many of the businesses featured in this book are highly focused on products that can be considered consumables by their customers. This means they have a very steady and predictable sales cycle and since the products are usually smaller in basket size, they get paid quicker and therefore don't need to worry too much about having cash tied up for excessive working capital needs. Next is decentralization. A business like Constellation Software cannot rely on one person to make the nearly 1200 deals that they've made throughout their lifetime. As enterprises scale up, they must pass off responsibility to other people. A business like Constellation has been an absolute master at this. Too much bureaucracy is a death sentence for aging companies. You get tied up doing too much talking and not enough doing. This is why many companies opt for decentralization. They get the right incentives, they get the right systems in place, then they just allow their people to execute which they are incentivized to do. And then speaking to culture, you know, cultures that really foster leadership and entrepreneurship are just so important. If you're looking at a business that cultivates these two things, then you may be looking at a great long term compounder. Leaders often retire and may eventually need to leave a company if that business is forced to hand it over to someone maybe outside who doesn't understand the culture that can obviously spell a disaster. But let's suppose you do have a small army of these great leaders and entrepreneurs who are very well versed in the company's culture. In that case, the transition period can offer a new perspective while maintaining a culture which tends to be a win win situation. The same companies that have established long term cultures prepare really really well for events such as the CEO's retirement. The book has an excellent table showing the tenure of former and current CEOs and the companies that were outlined, and it's quite powerful. So you can see that on average, the CEO of the nine businesses that were discussed have an average tenure inside of the company of about 21 years and an average tenure of 13 years as CEO. When you have CEOs that are willing to stay on that long, you can assume that they're taking a longer term view of the business and can strategize accordingly. Another area of the book that I'm glad was addressed was why Sweden just has so many successful serial acquirers. So I posed this question to Chris Mayer back when I was hosting the Millennial investing podcast on Mi310, which I'll link to in the show Notes. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
