Podcast Summary: TIP776 – Stig Brodersen’s Mental Models & Portfolio Update

Podcast: We Study Billionaires
Episode: TIP776: Stig Brodersen’s Mental Models & Portfolio Update
Air Date: December 12, 2025
Hosts: Clay Finck & Stig Brodersen

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth discussion between Clay Finck and Stig Brodersen, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, investor, and business owner. The focus: Stig’s 2025 portfolio update, reflections on the year’s investing lessons, new mental models, in-depth exploration of key holdings such as Uber and Alphabet, and broader takes on AI’s impact, operational leverage, and the role of communities in investing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Portfolio Performance & Philosophy

• Stig’s Long-Term Rule:
  Only checks portfolio returns once annually, in January, to minimize the temptation for unnecessary portfolio activity.

  “The more I look at my returns… the more I worry I would talk myself into portfolio activity, which is the last thing I want to do.” (Stig, 02:57)

• Performance Since 2014:

  • CAGR: 29.6% since 2014 (vs. S&P 500’s 13.4%), which Stig attributes partially to luck:

  “I’ll be the first to say that it’s more luck than skill… Ask me in 10 years, I think it will be significantly worse and luck has to turn eventually.” (Stig, 02:57)

• Evolving Focus:
  Shift from maximizing returns to balancing wealth preservation and growth. Core positions: Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet.

2. Mental Models & Learning Curves

• Evolution of Strategy:
  Early years: voracious learning from books, podcasts, and interviews. Now: more selective, focused on refining personal frameworks.

• Key Model: Operational Leverage

  • 2025 brought renewed appreciation for operational leverage, especially for digital companies.
  • Uber example: incremental revenue flows through to the bottom line due to low incremental costs.

  “If you factor in operational leverage, you see a different picture…” (Stig, 05:31)

• AI and Margins:

  • Alphabet’s gross margins impacted by rising AI compute cost—but business remains strong due to scale and data advantage.

3. Portfolio Changes: Selling Evolution AB, Adding to Uber

• Evolution AB Exit:

  • Bought in Oct 2024 at SEK 865, sold at SEK 676 (−21.8%, 10:33–15:53).
  • Reason: Lower conviction, opportunity cost, found a preferable investment (Uber).

  “The main reason why I sold Evolution was just that I found something better… we already talked about it. There was Uber.” (Stig, 10:33)

  • Painful to realize a loss, but Stig emphasizes a process: review thesis after 24 months or when the thesis breaks.

• Uber: Building a Position

  • Initial 1% "starter" position; now 7% of portfolio at an average price of $95.45 (25:02).
  • Approach: research deepens after ownership—ownership sharpens focus and reveals details real-time.

    “No matter how much research I do, it’s more about getting the process started. After learning about Uber, I am perhaps not as excited about the membership program as I originally was…” (Stig, 17:27)

4. Uber Deep Dive

Bull Thesis for Uber

• Winner-take-all dynamics, network effects in major markets, robust growth (mobility and delivery).
• High operating leverage: minimal capex needed for new incremental revenue (compared to legacy businesses).
• 75% US market share and significant profitability vs. competitors like Lyft.
• Uber as the “rails” for urban transportation, akin to Amazon for eCommerce.

Segment Analysis & Growth Drivers

• Heavy focus on frequency of use as the key growth lever (ride hailing and delivery).

  “I think frequency is going to be the major growth lever.” (Stig, 30:39)

• Personal note: Stig, based in a walkable European city, uses Uber sparingly but sees the urban, car-free lifestyle as a growing segment for Uber’s services (32:17–33:10).

Uber One (Membership Program)

• Membership penetration: 15–20% of users, spend ~3.5x more vs. non-members.
• Insights on recurring revenue and customer lock-in:

  “Uber One is wonderful. Everything they do to have a somewhat recurring revenue and increased frequency of use… just makes a lot of sense.” (Stig, 35:33)

Advertising Optionality

• Uber has built a “hidden” billion-dollar ad business—expected to grow and further boost profitability.

  “Uber just has so much data on you… right now it’s a billion dollar revenue business, but it’s growing fast.” (Stig, 40:59)

Bear Case: Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) Threat

• If AVs become dominant and a company like Tesla becomes the low-cost provider, the investment thesis could break.
• However, Stig posits delivery is much harder to automate than ride hailing; Uber’s two-sided network, data, and partnerships may give it resilience.

  “Delivery is so much harder to automate than ride hailing, because people are, well, people.” (Stig, 44:27)

5. AI, Big Tech, and the “Second Layer” Thesis

AI’s Impact

• The “layer below” the Magnificent Seven: companies like Uber, Spotify, Shopify, Netflix.
• Their unique data sets and domain-specific networks position them to survive and thrive, even if they don’t own the global cloud/AI stack.

  “...they can dominate… because they have the best data available.” (Stig, 53:30)

Capex Arms Race

• Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft can afford to “show up” in the AI race due to massive cash flows and ability to spend tens of billions on infrastructure—an economic moat.

  “The moat isn’t the capex itself. The moat is having a business strong enough to sustain that type of spend year after year.” (Stig, 64:41)

6. Mental Models: Unfair (and Comparative) Advantage

• Stig discusses the importance of identifying and leaning into personal and investment “unfair advantages”:
  • Examples: Low spending allows long-term focus, tax advantages with gold as an investment, personal interest leading to deeper research.
• Reference to Bill Miller’s three types of edge: information, analytical, and temperamental.

  “Whenever you build and manage your portfolio, you should really lean into your unfair advantages.” (Stig, 69:57)

7. Investment Community & Mastermind Reflections

• Clay and Stig reflect on how community feedback, believability-weighted input, and diverse perspectives have made them better investors (77:43–84:19).

  “With the mastermind community, I think that there is a layer on top of [solo research] where I can do a reality check.” (Stig, 83:12)

8. Omaha Berkshire Weekend & Live Events

• TIP will host events at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting (Omaha, May 2026).
• Early sign-ups due to demand; community events foster deeper connections.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On only checking the portfolio annually:
  “I have this rule that I only look at my portfolio returns once a year… to force myself to be inactive.” (Stig, 02:57)

• Operational Leverage Awareness:
  “If you factor in operational leverage, you see a different picture.” (Stig, 05:31)

• On Evolution AB exit:
  “The main reason why I sold Evolution was just that I found something better… there was Uber.” (Stig, 10:33)

• On Uber’s expansion:
  “Most people look at Uber as a ride hailing company, and delivery is already half of gross bookings, and they’re growing faster than ride hailing.” (Stig, 25:02)

• On Uber's competitive dynamics:
  “If someone can do ride hailing at a much lower cost than Uber… that would definitely break a core part of my thesis.” (Stig, 44:27)

• On AI infrastructure as a moat:
  “The moat isn’t the capex itself. The moat is having a business strong enough to sustain that type of spend year after year.” (Stig, 64:41)

• On unfair advantages:
  “Whenever you build and manage your portfolio, you should really lean into your unfair advantages.” (Stig, 69:57)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:57 | Stig on only checking portfolio returns annually, performance complexities | | 05:31 | Mental models: operational leverage, learning plateaus, AI impacts on margins | | 10:33 | Selling Evolution AB: reasons, pain of losses, opportunity cost, process discipline | | 15:53 | Reflection on being wrong—accepting mistakes | | 17:27 | Uber position: how conviction develops, building position size | | 25:02 | Uber: sizing up, competition, conviction, and portfolio impact | | 30:39 | Uber growth levers: Frequency, future of urban mobility | | 35:33 | Uber One: membership program analysis | | 40:59 | Uber’s advertising business: optionality and margin impact | | 44:27 | Autonomous vehicle threat scenario & Uber’s data/network resilience | | 53:30 | The “second layer” of tech winners: AI, data, and domain advantage | | 64:41 | Alphabet: AI arms race, capex as a moat, big tech resilience | | 69:57 | Unfair advantages as a mental model in investing and life | | 77:43 | Mastermind community impact—feedback, relationships, luck, and serendipity | | 84:19 | Berkshire weekend live events: community in-person opportunities |

Memorable Moments

• Stig’s candid discussion of losing money on Evolution AB and the emotional discipline required to move on.
• In-depth, plainspoken explanation of operational leverage and platform economics, drawing analogies to Amazon and Spotify.
• Analytical, yet humble take on AI’s “arms race,” warning against recency bias.
• Concrete mental model advice—leveraging unfair advantages in both professional and investment realms.
• Warm praise for the value of vetted communities and collaborative learning.

Final Thoughts

This episode is especially valuable for long-term investors seeking to:

• Listen in on the real-time evolution of experienced investors’ frameworks,
• Understand the nuances behind adding or dropping positions,
• Explore how operational leverage and AI dynamics shape modern portfolios,
• Learn practical mental models that reach beyond the numbers.

Stig’s honesty about wins and losses, combined with deep discussion of big ideas and the recognition of the power of communities, makes this a must-listen (or read) for anyone serious about investing in public markets in 2025 and beyond.