We Study Billionaires — TIP781: My Portfolio & Current Market Conditions
Hosts: Stig Brodersen & Clay Finck
Aired: January 4, 2026
Episode Overview
In this candid and wide-ranging annual episode, hosts Stig Brodersen and Clay Finck reflect on Clay’s personal investment portfolio, discuss how his philosophy has evolved, and extract key lessons from the strategies of billionaire investors. They cover specific holdings, the impact of dominant narratives such as AI and market cycles, and how value investing shapes broader perspectives on money, happiness, and relationships. The conversation is rich with investment wisdom, practical frameworks, and personal reflections on building a life with a “margin of safety.”
Major Discussion Themes
- Portfolio Evolution & New Additions
- Market Concentration and Deployment Strategy
- Valuation, Narratives & Intrinsic Value
- International Investing: Poland and Japan
- Portfolio Sizing, Cash Management, and Position Building
- Technology, Disruption, and Narrative Cycles
- Growth vs. Shareholder Yield and Investment Style
- Optimizing for Happiness and Life Choices
- Relationships & Community in Value Investing
- Culture, Integrity, and the Power of Compounding Goodwill
1. Portfolio Evolution & New Additions
Clay’s 2025 Portfolio Changes
- Broadened focus beyond non-US companies to include dominant US franchises.
- New adds in 2025: Meta, Interactive Brokers, Booking Holdings
“This year I added shares of Meta, Interactive Brokers, and Booking Holdings to my portfolio… I’ve really gained more of an appreciation for just how dominant many US franchises are. Part of this is speaking to several of the guests that I do here on the show.”
— Clay Finck (02:04)
Meta (Facebook)
- Admired Meta’s resilience and innovation under Mark Zuckerberg.
- Bought after a steep drop from $750 to below $600 on CapEx concerns, viewing this as an overreaction to their long-term AI investments.
“Regardless of what people think of Zuckerberg… he’s just shown a remarkable ability to navigate different market environments and capitalize on the opportunities… I want to own a business that I feel is confident will have much higher earnings per share five plus years into the future.”
— Clay Finck (04:14)
Interactive Brokers
- Impressed by founder Thomas Peterffy’s rags-to-riches story and long-term vision.
- Attracted by IBKR’s organic account growth, minimal marketing spend, global reach, and superior execution compared to commodity-like peers.
“What really struck me in studying this business was the founder Thomas Petterfi’s story. He’s your pretty typical outsider CEO who thinks very long term… and not appeal to Wall Street’s interests. And that’s allowed him to build just a very differentiated business.”
— Clay Finck (06:56)
- Both Meta and IBKR are companies Clay personally uses—emphasizing his “invest where you are a happy customer” philosophy.
2. Market Concentration and Deployment Strategy
S&P 500 Market Dynamics
- Market performance in 2023–2025 has been exceptionally strong, reminiscent of late 1990s tech bubble.
- Top 10 companies make up 40% of the S&P 500’s value.
“It’s increasingly making the index more of a bet on the Mag 7 continuing to work… I would say it’s a much healthier market to have more broader participation in the growth of the economy.”
— Clay Finck (12:32)
- Clay is not an index investor, preferring to own specific high-quality companies.
On Investing Outside the U.S.
- Holds stocks in Poland and Japan due to attractive valuations and diversification benefits.
“Of the dozen or so stocks I hold, I own two stocks in Poland, for example, one in Japan… When you look at some of these countries internationally… the broader populations tend to be less interested in the stock market, and I think that’s one reason why the valuations are more attractive.”
— Clay Finck (14:41)
3. Valuation, Narratives & Intrinsic Value
Narratives vs. Intrinsic Value
- Markets frequently overreact to headlines and short-term narratives, causing stock prices to diverge from intrinsic value.
“The intrinsic value of a great business, it’ll tend to rise gradually over time, assuming the fundamentals continue to improve, and the stock price can oscillate both above and below.”
— Clay Finck (19:37)
Case Studies:
- Alphabet: Prone to wild price swings based on fear of “ChatGPT taking search to zero” or being “the best AI play.”
- Constellation Software & Topicus: “Unstoppable compounding machine to AI loser” in months due to sentiment, not fundamentals.
Ben Graham Approach:
- Look for “unpopular large caps” temporarily undervalued due to negative narratives.
“Ben Graham referred to this approach as investing in unpopular large caps… Graham stated in The Intelligent Investor… it suggests an investment approach that should prove both conservative and promising.”
— Clay Finck (23:16)
4. International Investing: Poland & Japan
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Poland (e.g. Dinopolska):
- Undervalued, owner-operator led businesses.
- Little market hype, persistent organic growth.
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Japan:
- Deep value—many stocks trade below net cash.
- Cautious about currency risk and governance, but sees margin of safety and learning potential.
“Japan, I think, is by far the cheapest when I look at a lot of the stocks I own… But you’re also opening yourself up to currency risk.”
— Clay Finck (16:24)
5. Portfolio Sizing, Cash Management & Position Building
Sizing:
- Full position ≈ 10%; built up gradually.
- Willing to trim positions that reach fair value to fund new opportunity—reluctant to sell quality holdings.
“Portfolio management is probably one of the more difficult parts to me... To make your winners count, you need to bet big for them to actually make a difference. But if you bet big and you’re wrong, you don’t want to have it to potentially destroy you.”
— Clay Finck (30:25)
Cash Management:
- Rarely holds large cash positions; prefers to stay mostly invested.
6. Technology, Disruption & Narrative Cycles
- Discussed the market’s tendency to overreact to near-term technology trends (e.g. AI, autonomous vehicles).
- Short-term market euphoria often overestimates tech’s impact, while long-term impact is often underestimated.
“People tend to overestimate the impact of technologies in the short run, but underestimate them in the long run… Amazon was going to disrupt Barnes and Noble overnight, which of course wasn't true.”
— Stig Brodersen (32:55)
Advice:
- Stick to durable business models.
- Be ready to update thesis if disruption proves real.
7. Growth vs. Shareholder Yield — Investment Philosophy
- Prefers higher fundamental growth over higher dividend/buyback yield.
“I would certainly choose the 12% growth company over the company with lower growth and a higher shareholder yield. And I think probably the main reason for that is simply just due to my age and my investment runway.”
— Clay Finck (39:45)
- Core: Hold great businesses for compounding; minimize taxable events and benefit from long-term asymmetry (like Buffett, Francois Rochon).
8. Optimizing for Happiness and Life Choices
- The pursuit of investing is as much about joy, learning, and autonomy as pure financial gain.
“I love reading 10Ks and 10Qs in my life… I would feel like my life would be missing an important ingredient of happiness if it didn’t pick individual stocks.”
— Stig Brodersen (43:18)
- As Clay matures, his focus shifts from maximizing portfolio growth to building an antifragile, “margin of safety” life—balancing preservation, growth, and happiness.
“Without really thinking about it that way, I’ve sort of thought about managing my portfolio to optimize for happiness… I’m just much more interested… in capital preservation, building a portfolio that will still deliver good returns, but also be more antifragile.”
— Clay Finck (45:31)
- Influenced by Buffett’s concept of living by an “inner scorecard,” not external expectations.
9. Relationships & Community in Value Investing
- Relationships in the value investing community provide inspiration, accountability, learning, and friendship.
- Importance of reciprocity and compounding goodwill—giving, sharing, and helping others leads to value in return.
“What has amazed me most is just how generous and collaborative the community can be. People are genuinely willing to share their insights, their time and their mistakes.”
— Clay Finck (65:01)
- TIP’s Mastermind community fosters deep connections, learning, and practical support.
10. Culture, Integrity, and the Power of Compounding Goodwill
- Stig shares about TIP’s unique culture: prioritizing trust, integrity, and long-term relationships over corporate formality.
“If you pay the right people well, you can really focus on growing the pie and then divide it so everybody wins…”
— Stig Brodersen (72:43)
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Both hosts advocate for orienting your career and business around purpose, community, and tap-dancing to work, rather than maximizing short-term profits.
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The value of doing business with friends (once you have the experience to select well) and creating environments where compounding trust and goodwill enable everyone to win.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On Meta's AI Focus:
“AI is all the rage today. And Meta actually created their AI research arm back in 2013… Meta has been already doing this for more than a decade… I really see this as them doubling down on what’s already working.”
— Clay Finck (05:15) -
On Opportunity Cost:
“I always been like that’s just been too expensive. And then like, you know, like the stock price just exploded. And I’m still like, I can see that it’s following the fundamentals. Yeah, it just still seems a little too expensive. And it’s so ironic, you know, because I like you, I read all these books… and then I don’t do it at all myself.”
— Stig Brodersen (09:54) -
On Investing for Happiness:
“So money of course plays a role in happiness. But I think the big point that I picked up from Morgan [Housel] was that most people overestimate the importance of money when it relates to happiness.”
— Clay Finck (58:10) -
On Living by an Inner Scorecard:
“Living by an inner scorecard just really empowered me to look internally and recognize what I really wanted out of life.”
— Clay Finck (67:18) -
On Compounding Relationships:
“There’s just this powerful effect of being a giver instead of being a taker. And the paradox is that you end up receiving much more in life by giving than by taking.”
— Clay Finck (77:20)
Key Timestamps
- New portfolio positions, rationale — 02:00-09:50
- US vs. International stocks, valuations — 12:00-18:50
- Valuation vs. narrative, intrinsic value — 19:30-26:00
- Portfolio sizing, cash management — 30:20-32:55
- Disruption, technology, narrative cycles — 32:55-38:30
- Growth vs. shareholder yield — 39:45-43:15
- Investing for happiness, inner scorecard — 43:18-51:10
- Relationships, compounding goodwill — 65:00-77:20
Final Thoughts
Clay and Stig’s annual conversation is more than a portfolio review—it’s a masterclass in long-term thinking, humility, and personal growth. The hosts weave together the technical (“how I analyze a company”) with the existential (“what makes for a rich and happy life?”), demonstrating how value investing frameworks extend far beyond the stock market to careers, communities, and building a life of integrity.