Stig Broderson (12:14)

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Stig Broderson (15:48)

Alright, back to the show. So David, let me just try to play devil's advocate here just because I can't help myself. Some people, they hear about this 4% business binder stat and what they think is oh, we should index because it's so hard to find and hold on to those superstar stocks. And then the others who think, well if 4% creates all the return, we better go out there and find those 4% stocks. With that being said though, I'll be the first to say that 99% of people should index, and I'm not saying 99% of the people listening to the show. I do know that there is a certain selection bias to the people who follow our show and their interest in the stock market, but I would say that 99% of people want to compound their wealth and probably who doesn't want to spend the time on it and doesn't have the temperament to pick individual stocks. And, you know, I can just say it's been quite an eye opener for me at least, to look at some of the track records of the investors that we had on here on the past, on the show. And whenever Preston and I started back in the day, we felt everyone in the space were way smarter than us. And I think that was probably because it was true that they're way smarter than us, and perhaps they're still smarter than us today. But one of the things that we did, I know it took us way too long to get to that, was we started to look at people's track records, and we were like, hey, you say really smart things, and then you study Buffett and Munger, you're like, okay, it's one thing what people say, it's another thing what people do. And the best way, like, the strongest signal you can find would be an auditing track record where you benchmark towards a reputable benchmark such as the S&P 500. And it really goes to your point before, David, about how few investors who actually do that. And the point is not to name any names. If you follow someone and you really have a lot of faith in what they do, I think that's great. I would also encourage you to check out their track record. And if you can't find the track record, it might be because they're too embarrassed that they are beating all of us and they're the next Warren Buffett and they don't want to tell anyone. But also, it's the same people who are out there in the public space all the time telling you about investing. And so there is certainly a selection bias. And we're talking about some of them are, you know, some of them are billionaires, and they're just. They're great at storytelling, but perhaps less so at picking stocks also. And this was a shock to me. The name escapes me, but I read a book about this concept a long time ago, and it was about whenever you see a fund that's performed really, really well, then the author went back and he looked at how many funds that were started by the same person. And he was like, hey, just by pure math, some of those funds, if they're concentrate enough, are going to show really good returns. And then the trigger is that you just close down the funds that are not performing. And we see that quite often, to be frank. But you sort of have to know to think about it like that, where you're like, yeah, but again, if they set up 100 fund and there are only two remaining, there could also be that element. And so I'll be the first to say that indexing doesn't sound exciting, but that is what most people should do. And I don't want this to sound like I'm badmouthing asset managers who are not beating the index. You know, it is incredibly difficult to do. And I also think that if you do it for the right reasons, managing people's money is one of the most admirable jobs that you can have. But I would rather encourage you to take a step back and ask yourself why you manage money the way that you do. So, for example, if you invest with an asset manager and they tell you their job is to beat the market, well, great, and the best of luck. But then again, make sure that they actually do beat the market and it's not like some kind of random benchmark they chose, which I also see all the time that it's almost impossible not to beat that, or they continue to change the benchmark. The benchmark is going lower and lower. That's probably not what you want to see. But a reputable benchmark, let's say the S&P 500. And so that's one thing to look at. You probably also want to look at not just, you know, the past five years, you know, not just at a period of time where everything has gone up, but at, you know, at least a decade, preferably two, and make sure that you have some really painful bear markets in that track or two, and see how they reacted. And so I can't help to encourage you to study that. And of course, if the asset manager's then saying, no, they haven't been beating the market, but now, now they've figured out how to do it and they just need your money to do it. Make sure to be careful. And also, and I'm sorry, I kind of feel I become a bit nerdy here about this, and that's just because I attract so many different investors, probably to my own detriment. And I've seen so many benchmarks being used, probably also benchmark that are not reputable And I can see, like, I can see a point where you say, look, I'm a micro cap investor and I only invest in frontier markets.

David Fagan (20:59)

Yeah.

Stig Broderson (21:00)

Perhaps there is a good case why you won't be using the SB500. But I think at the same time you can also say people listening to the show, they have access to the biggest benchmarks typically, and they can invest in the ETFs, tracking those benchmarks relatively quickly. So I don't know, I just think that, you know, to your point, David, you can do yourself a service of you're comparing apples to apples. And I know you have a really good story to this year later about a woman who wants to retire. Just I read that. I was like, that is exactly why I keep on beating this thing here about the index and what are you really measuring? But anyways, I know we'll get to that later here in the episode. And again, some of you out there, you know, you might have been following your show for a long time and you try to lock in the stock market and you thoroughly enjoy it and you don't beat the market. Is there anything wrong with that? No, I think that's perfectly fine. I just think you should know why you're doing it and the upside and the downside of whatever kind of approach. And I think as long as you do that, you know, you can not beat the market as much as you want. But really, one of the things that I also want to talk about is that, you know, whenever you, for example, David, are talking about the stock market, I think whenever we hear the stock market, we think differently about it. I think some of the listeners are thinking, oof, that's a dangerous place to be. Let's hold cash. Cash is less risky. And I'd say that that's probably cash is the surest way to lose your money because of inflation. And I know I'm sort of like going in all kinds of direction here, but I'll be the first to say, like perhaps the CPI number, which is what, 2.7, whatever, that's probably not the real inflation. And you could just look at, you know, the, the groceries you're buying or what's happening to your college tuition, whatever, like, it's probably not 2.7%. And so really a big reason why you might want to invest in the stock market and why it's not risky is actually because the biggest risk is not to be able to retain your purchasing power. So the last thing I just wanted to say here before I throw it over to you David, is that perhaps the listeners want to know, if I invest index funds, I have around 15% at the time recording in passive indexes, and then closer to probably add another 7ish percent if you include my position in Berkshire, which is an individual stock. And I think a lot of people out there would say it's sort of like a superpower ETF pun taken. So that's sort of like where I am. I publish my own track record of my own portfolio and I'll be sure to link to that. So please take it for what it is. But I think if you are a yo yo like me who think they can beat the market, I think it's also perfectly fine. You see, you know, sort of like what kind of thought process, what kind of positions for you to be able to track that. So with that said, let me throw it back over to you, David.

David Fagan (23:54)

I think taking a step back and asking yourself why you invest is a great question. I mean, I had a wonderful lunch with one of our mastermind community members over the Christmas break. And one of the things we talked about was how our investment style really needs to match our temperament. And his point went a step further. Not just how we invest, but generally how we make decisions and how we operate in other areas of our life as well. And that leads me to thinking about indexing from the perspective of entrepreneurship as well. We talk about risk and returns often. And since I run a business where I'm trying to make a 20 to 25% rate of return, when I look at my overall strategy across all three silos of private and public equities and real estate, as much as I want to make the largest returns I can in public securities, I am playing a slightly different game. And I think it's wise to acknowledge the risk that I'm already taking in the other silos. When I put my public market investments and decisions in a broader context, I mean, entrepreneurship can be fragile. My business partner, James Allen and I, we often talk about the risk that could take our firm out of business. Yes, we want to generate high IRRs. And I mean, these are extreme scenarios, but we, you know, and that it could be highly unlikely. But the government of Canada could say there's zero tax for small businesses in, in Canada. That's not completely outlandish. And so there's risk in that. I mean, we have key person risk. We could have a cyber security attack. And just the plain randomness that of the things that can happen when you run your own business and you know what it's like when you build a business, Stig, you realize how fragile things can be and how many variables you don't control. And that's where indexing can fit in so well for entrepreneurs. I mean, it gives you a foundation that isn't as fragile. And what I mean by that is if you believe that the stock market will be a decent asset class for returns over the next 40 years, this strategy can work, right? I mean, invest systematically. Dollar cost, average buy the entire market. Don't use leverage. I mean, that's a, that should be a durable strategy. And you know, you want reliability. You want something that compounds quietly in the background while you're focusing on the business that demands your energy. I mean, for the vast majority of people who don't want to read 10ks and study public companies, I absolutely believe that indexing is the right approach for them. I mean, most entrepreneurs don't need an investment portfolio that adds more stress to their lives. I mean, I'm sure the business is already using up a lot of bandwidth their, their private business that are running. So, you know, you don't need another arena where you're constantly making decisions and second guessing yourself and possibly adding more emotional weight. I mean, you, you actually need the opposite. Something that reduces noise and frees up attention and something that's just going to build wealth without requiring as much mental energy. And you know, like for so many people, indexing can act like the shock absorber to part of their wealth creation plan. It just lets the business owner worry about their business and not their portfolio. And you know, on that same theme of, of entrepreneurs, for many, their businesses is all the concentration they really need in life. And their portfolio should give them breathing room. And if you're fortunate enough to generate even a 15 to 20% net return on your private business, your portfolio probably doesn't need to. That's the reality of it. I mean, as an entrepreneur, you don't have to feel the pressure to beat the market. You just need to understand that your portfolio has a different job to do to protect your wealth that you've created in entrepreneurship and compound it in another asset class. Does that make sense?

Stig Broderson (27:47)

Yeah, it, it makes a lot of sense, David. And you know, it reminds me, I was speaking with a business owner the other day and he actually told me that he was frustrated with index investing, even though he understood why you should do it. But he, he felt like he didn't get the reward that he got in his private business where if he worked harder he would make more money. And so he was Said like tongue in cheek, so take it for what it is. But he was like, if I could get 8% working really, really hard or 8% not working at all investing, I would probably just work really, really hard to get that 8%. And he said to me, he knew it didn't really make any sense, but he was just, he felt it was so counterintuitive just to buy and hold and really just set it and forget it. And, and I think, you know, from one business owner to another, we wired a certain way, like to do the hustle. And that's what you are, quote unquote, supposed to do sometimes to own detriment. I guess, you know, once you, once.

David Fagan (28:46)

You start viewing investing through downside risk, I mean, the next logical question is, okay, if I believe that indexing is going to work, how can I actually implement it? And I guess I want to talk to the listeners and for those that, that are learning a little bit from this episode about indexing, just how I do it, and if they, you know, can take some education from that. I mean, in terms of implementation, I follow Warren Buffett's recommendation to his estate. Almost exactly 90% of each of the portfolios that we have are in low cost index funds. And 10% is in fixed income. And that small 10% of fixed income allocation, it isn't for returns. It's actually to stabilize behavior during market cycles. You know, I rebalance once a year. And my rule for rebalancing couldn't be simpler. If fixed income falls to 5%, I trim equities. And if fixed income rises to 15%, I buy more. And this forces the behavior that every investor knows they should follow, but really struggles to execute. Sell high and buy low. And what I'm trying to do is remove the noise and keep myself disciplined around that. And maybe the last point that I want to make on, on why I index comes down to my own wiring. Stig. I mean, there's the emotional benefit that people rarely talk about. You know, I remember 2008 vividly. I was in my late 20s and I didn't have much invested in today's comparison as I did back then. But I can remember thinking that if things get any worse in the public market, society as a whole would be busted and we'd have to reinvent how we lived. I mean, people were talking about building bunkers and food security during that time. You want to talk about maximum fear and pessimism. I mean, it was a crazy nine month stretch. The, the heart of the nine month stretch between August 2008 and March 2009. You know, but through that period, the feeling that I had that I was losing with everyone else because I was indexing was oddly reassuring. I mean, I had a sense of alignment during that period. I mean, I rose with the market, I fell with the market, and again, being down with the market was oddly comforting. I, I, I know everyone is wired their own way and but for me, that it made a lot of sense. And you know, I often come back to Nassim Taleb's example of the dentist next door when it comes to indexing. Go to work, live below your means, structure your life in a way that you can save a hundred thousand dollars a year for 35 years, hopefully earn an 8 to 9% rate of return, and retire extremely wealthy. And you know, as some would say, stay gets just that simple and just that hard. So why do I index? It's funny, but to your point, indexing in some circles can just be looked down upon, and some would say that it just lacks brilliance. But can't simplicity also be the ultimate form of sophistication? I mean, we've heard that so many times. And you know, I'm rooted in indexing for this reason. There's a good chance that over the next four decades, I think that the consistency of holding index funds will be really good for our family.

Stig Broderson (32:13)

Yeah, I'll be the first to say that picking stocks is just such a competitive game, and it probably doesn't seem like it. You know, it's kind of like if you're watching sports, you know, you can sort of like look at the pits and you're like, oh, like that looks hard. I probably couldn't do that. Or perhaps you're sitting there in a couch drinking beer and like, of course I could do that. But you probably are thinking, yeah, that looks tough. Whenever it comes to stock investing, it looks relatively easy because you could be sitting on your phone in your couch, buying this stock or that stock. But as a business owner, you really know how brutal capitalism is. And perhaps you don't want to start competing in stock investing in a game with less time and fewer skills than your competitors. Very few people can do that. It's like bringing a knife to a gunfight. And strongly consider why you don't index. And if it's for the right reason. And of course, the right reasons are quite subjective too. I think personally, a small part of my portfolio, even if I couldn't beat the market, I think that would always be active. It's just because I Enjoy it so much. For me, it's like kind of a pure form of intellectual capitalism to sit there and pick stocks. And I can easily understand if that's not how most people want to spend their life. But really, if you agree with your point, David, about the primary goal of your portfolio is to protect your family's wealth rather than have fun, then indexing is probably for you. And indexing using a dollar cost averaging strategy is much more powerful than what it seems. It's like riding a tailwind, really. I mean, sometimes, yes, the wind is blowing stronger than other times, but it's always there. And you automatically recycle the worst companies out of the index. And then you include better companies in Inde, such as the S&P 500. And also because you compete so much against so many biases, whenever you pick individual stocks, you know, one of them is anchoring. That's. That's one of my favorites because I'm so susceptible to it myself. And it's so easy to think that the retail price of what you bought a stock at, call it a hundred bucks, that is some kind of cosmic average. And then you see the stock price slide, and you continue to average down because it looks cheaper and cheaper. But actually what happens is that you're probably doubling down on a falling knife. That's probably really what's happening. And so unless you're wired the right way for the actual strategy, individual stocks are probably not for you. And really to the point you had before there, David, think about if you do run your own business or you work in a corporation, think about how many things you cannot control. Of course, you can control even fewer things if you're a public investor. But even in your position, or in my position where you run your own company, you're supposed to be in control. I look at something like podcasting. You know, podcasting used to be listened to on itunes, and some of the younger listeners are sitting out there and like, what's itunes? Back in the day, you listen to podcasts, and it was. It was only audio. No one thought of video. And it was two dudes talking about a niche topic, fly fishing, whatever. And today it's. It's video. It's on YouTube. It's two celebrities shooting the breeze. Like everything is changing. And so we have no control over that. And again, you have even less as a public investor. But you get that control back from investing in, let's call it 500 stocks in the S&P 500 or Avanguard's VT. It's 10,000. Essentially, there's not a big difference between 500 and 10,000 companies. But it's a way of. As much as it feels like you don't have control, you actually take back some of the control through diversification. And I really like that. You talk there about the great financial crisis like it seems forever ago today. And I think many of the people perhaps listen to the show that don't remember how brutal it was. Some people might think of COVID but Covid was just. It was just so different in so many ways. But also, especially if you look in the financial markets that kind of like V shape and everything just popped up again, that was not at all what happened during the great financial crisis. It was very different and it felt very painful in a different way. And so you really have to figure out how you're wired. And for better, for worse. I always felt like a bit of an outsider, so I want to say that I probably never had a problem standing outside the crowd, sometimes to my own detriment. And that's probably also why value investing resonates so well with me. But more often than not, there's a reason why the crowd do certain things, and you probably want to follow the crowd. And getting market returns is kind of wonderful because you'll become wealthy if you're patient, you live within your means. And because humans are humans, for the vast majority of us, it's actually quite good for a stress level that we make money when other people make money and lose money whenever other people lose money. I know that's not supposed to be that way, and I know it sounds boring and it sounds like a bit of a defeatist approach, but we all humans. And so no, you won't be thought of as the next Warren Buffett if you index, but perhaps you can optimize for other things in your life that you are that's more suited for you in the first place. And I would probably make a somewhat bold statement that 99% of people should be happy with that lower stress level. And the mag returns that would follow.

David Fagan (37:53)

Yeah. And absolutely. You know, to a lot of the things that we've already talked about, I want to transition a little bit to overseeing your investment results. It's an angle that we have to pay attention to and oftentimes goes completely unnoticed. You talked about this earlier. It's the idea that you should be overseeing your results when you've outsourced the management of your investments. And to a lot of listeners, it's going to be hard to believe that Some people don't spend any time understanding how their investments have actually performed relative to their risk profile and the broader markets. I've spent decades as a chartered professional accountant accountant helping business owners build stronger financial futures. And it's something that I've seen over and over again when I talk to clients. Last year, Stig, you talked about your track record and how intentional you are about measuring it and you think about it often. But for some people, they're simply not interested in following the results. And it can be a fault. It can actually get to the fault stage. I mean, I don't recommend people check their investments all the time, but you should check them enough to know whether you're on track. I mean, it'd be similar to playing 18 holes of golf and never keeping score and having no idea whether you're improving or not. I mean, you know, when I ask people about their investment returns, this is a very quantitative questions. I usually hear one of three things. It often starts with, I'm not sure, but my advisor is a great friend. I trust my advisor or my advisor is a really nice person. And every time I hear that, I smile a little bit. Because trust is a wonderful thing, but it can be dangerous when it replaces oversight. I mean, your investment returns, they aren't just numbers, they're your livelihood. You know, being the overseer doesn't mean that you have to manage your own money. It just means that you have a job. You have to stay aware and ask the right questions and know your numbers just a little bit. You know, it would be like handing your kids over to someone and never checking on them and asking how they're doing. You know, it's just something that you probably shouldn't do. So let me share the story that I shared with you earlier of getting ready for this, about how this reality has shaped my life. I had one of my long time clients who started her career later in life. She was saving a hundred thousand dollars a year and she did this for 16 years. And she sat across from me one day in the boardroom and said, David, listen, I'm tired and I want to retire. And I realized something very painful in that moment. Her investments had averaged about a 5% compounded rate of return for those 16 years. And she didn't have enough to provide for her family with the lifestyle she wanted to in retirement. If she had earned just 8%, I could have told her in that meeting on that day, yes, I think you're ready to retire. Missing that 3% meant that she had to work another six to seven years, and she did everything right. Her shortfall wasn't necessarily her, her fault. I mean, in part, it was mine. I mean, early on, I didn't pay enough attention to her investment returns. And later in my career, I avoided the uncomfortable conversation with, with her broker. I mean, I was only 28 years old when I started working with her and. But I told myself, just stay in your lane. You're. You're her accountant. And, you know, maybe I should have been doing a more holistic job and acting as the overseer of her entire Life. Missing that 3% represented time, time she could have spent with her family, traveling, or more importantly, in that meeting at retiring after decades of a demanding career. And that was the real cost of not paying attention to those investment returns. So, you know, really, for, for the listeners of this call and, and for those that share this episode with people that are learning a little bit about investments as well, I'd encourage everyone to understand how their investment results are doing. And to do this, you just need to set clear goals. You have to know exactly why you're investing, whether it's for retirement or freedom or helping your kids or building a legacy. You've got to review your actual results every six months. And this is the important part. You've got to ask yourself, what is my return and how does it compare to the market, given my risk profile? You don't have to know all the technical details, just whether or not your portfolio is doing its job. You also, you've got to know the fees that you're paying. I mean, if you're paying over 2% in management fees, cutting that in half alone can save into hundreds of thousands of dollars over time. I will caveat with the. I mean, if you're paying 5 or 6% but are getting rates of returns that are doing well, because then that's wonderful. But you have to know the relations there. And when you talk to your advisor, you have to ask direct questions. You can't settle for vague answers like, you're doing fine. Like, you have to, you should ask like, how are my results compared to a balance index portfolio? How. How am I doing? I mean, this, this question shouldn't be confrontational. It's just now you doing your job. And finally, you just have to stay curious. You don't need to be an expert. You just have to stay engaged enough to notice whether your money is compounding the way it should. And like I like to tell people, when you hire an investment advisor, trust feels good, but the results are your livelihood.

Stig Broderson (43:36)

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Stig Broderson (47:16)

All right, back to the show. I love that point, David. Compounding is such a powerful force and it will test your patience in the beginning and then your astonishment later. And again. If you want to work to your point, if you want to work with an advisor, I think that's perfectly fine. But think about the value they provide and whether or not it's worth it. So what I would suggest is basically to do this, compare your returns with a globally diversified index. And we talked about Vanguard's VT before. So the expense ratio is 6 basis points. That's 0.06%. That's very cheap. I just want to say for the record, and now you own a small slice of 10,000 of the best companies in the world. And then compare those, call the six basis points to what you are paying your financial advisor. And keep in mind that you also, if you work with a financial advisor, you are, you are paying both expenses, you are paying the fees to the advisor and then you're also paying the ETF cost. And how does those returns stack up to whatever kind of benchmark you're looking at? And if you have a, an advisor that's a little too fancy with, you know, picking individual stocks, you know that that's one way to go. That could be a concern, especially if you're underperforming the market. And there's also a bit of a selection bias here. And I don't know if I forget to offend anyone here. I kind of feel I've been offending a lot of people. But also to some extent there is a selection bias, right? If this person you are sitting next to were the next Warren Buffett, why is that guy sitting in that chair speaking with you about xyz? So there's also selection bias there. So I think it's really up to you to figure out what is it that you're paying for. You know, definitely there could be something optimizing for taxes, There could be rebalancing. There could be a lot of good reasons why you want to work with an advisor. But if it's a question of you going to get some kind of generic portfolio allocation, like 60% stocks and 4% bonds or whatever it is, like, you can go to YouTube and watch a free video. And you probably have to go through some painful YouTube ads first if you don't have YouTube Premium. But that's the cost and then the time. Like, it's sort of like whenever you rephrase that and you're like, okay, I'm gonna spend an hour of my life and then I won't be paying 1% out of a million dollar portfolio. So, okay, that's $10,000 for an hour of your time trying to, you know, figure out a free YouTube video, how to do it yourself. Like, you could take your family on vacation for that $10,000 or donate it to charity. You know, there is no reason to donate it to the financial advisor without yacht foundation. Plenty of people have been contributing to that foundation. You don't have to do it. And really, it's a bit like going to fitness. Like, the more you move, the more you lose. And unfortunately, that's also typically how it is with many advisors and active money managers. So you move around a lot, just to bring the metaphor back home here. And then not losing weight, but probably losing some dollars along the way. And there's this. This is gonna sound so draconian, but there's this saying that if you want a good friend in politics, you should get a dog. And to David's point, before I'm sure your financial advisor is nice. That's very often what you hear is like, oh, but Brian is so nice. Our fame has been using Brian for decades. How can we. I get that it's emotional, it's very, very challenging, but you're dealing with your financial future and your family depends on you. And being a nice person and building generic portfolio should not be enough to earn your business. And the last point I just wanted to drive home here is that no one cares as much about your money as you do. And just always make sure to remember that.

David Fagan (51:11)

Yeah, there's a lot to unpack here in that one. But I think I'll start by saying, like, I don't think there's anything wrong with hiring a financial advisor. And in many cases, it could actually be the best move that you make. I mean, if you, it's like if you have a coach helping you on the behavioral side, making sure that you don't make major mistakes out of fear and emotion. And I feel like there's a lot of value in that. And Stig, sometimes it really does pay to outsource. I mean, you and I have talked about this before. You're more than capable of filing your own corporate taxes. I mean, you taught accounting at university, you wrote a book on Warren Buffett's accounting, and yet you still choose to hire someone to handle your corporate filings. That's a conscious decision around time, focus, and behavior. And, you know, we all have to make trade offs like that. And, and when someone just isn't wired to manage their own wealth but is fortunate enough to have it, hiring the right person can make a lot of sense. And you know, I guess just to transition a little bit here, Stig, because we're talking about the behavioral side, I do want to tie in some, some stuff that I've been talking about around expectations and leadership and knowing when to simplify things that are in your, in your life, and, and how leadership and the role of expectations can play in how people show up. And there are some parallels with investing in this. And as you know, Stig, I, I look at almost everything in my life through the same three lenses. Investing, business and life. And, and of course, life has a, as a big package there in terms of where that can take you. In a previous podcast, you and I talked about how being a better business person makes you a better investor, and a better investor makes you a better business person. Those worlds feed on each other. And, you know, recently I've been thinking a lot about leadership through that same lens and specifically how expectations can shape the people around us. I mean, in investing, we expect durable businesses and we expect certain returns, and we track our performance and, and then we reinsess. But do we apply that same clarity inside our organizations? You know, I'm finding that expectations can quiet, quietly elevate someone or limit them without even realizing it. You know, sometimes a challenge in leadership is that we hold on to old Judg far too long. We freeze people in time based on where they were instead of who they've now become. And I mean, we can certainly apply the same thought process to a specific investment that we might have that we still hold on today. But maybe for the wrong reasons. And early in my career, I certainly carried a childhood impression of someone well into my 20s that it took me far too long to update my Lens on. And even today I have to be mindful of catching myself forming impressions too soon and too early. You know, those old judgments, you know, they can turn into expectations before we even say a word. And I find that people can fall or rise to the expectations we hold of them. And the truth is that they can. People can often feel our expectations long before we even speak them out loud. You know, we talk about quality in our mastermind community and, and how there's a frequency to quality and, and I feel like there's a frequency to expectations that often go untalked about and unsaid. There's a famous study in in that was done in 1968 by psychologists Robert Rosenthal and Lauren Jacobson called Pygmalion in the Classroom. And these teachers were told that certain students, these students were chosen completely at random, had exceptional potential. Nothing about these students changed, only the teachers expectations of those students changed. Eight months later, those students posted significantly larger IQ gains. The teachers changed their belief and their tone with those kids and then their encouragement and that belief changed the student's performance. I mean, it is a unbelievably remarkable study just how changing expectations can change outcomes. I mean, only if investing were that easy, Stig. If we could just be so lucky to expect a 15% rate of return. And it just happened just like that. But, but there is, there is a parallel here in investing. Discipline can compound returns. And in leadership, I feel that the right expectations can compound behavior. And you know, for listeners who don't know who Helen Keller is, she's a wonderful example of how expectations can elevate someone. I mean, she went blind and deaf at 19 months old and lived in silence for years. Most people thought that she would never communicate. Then Ann Sullivan arrived and eventually became her lifelong friend. I mean, ann was around 20 years old when they met. I think Helen was maybe around 9 or 10. And Ann carried one unshakable expectation that Helen could learn. She treated Helen as capable of learning long before Helen believed it herself. And as their story unfolds, the moment that Ann spelled water in Helen's hand while running cold water over her other hand, everything changed. Helen made the connection that she felt. What she felt in one hand was water and spelt in the others. And her world opened up after that. I mean, her, her learning sped up and she went on to graduate from Ratcliffe College and publish books and lecture globally. I mean, it's quite a story for those who aren't familiar with her. And you know, Helen and Ann story was an amazing Success of expectations. And you know what they can do. Just know that expectations can go the other way as too. And I'll just share a short story here. You know, back when I was in school, I knew a couple of students that were getting ready for a Christmas concert that was coming up. And the two of the kids in this Christmas concert were really struggling with their tone. And the music teacher, who was completely impatient, move them to the back row. And over time, she expected less and less of them. And then obviously what's going to happen is those students started expecting less of themselves. I mean, it's, it's not a great story. I mean, this is just. And then the final blow was a week before the, the concert, she actually asked them to lip sync during it. I mean, one small sentence and it became a, a lifetime wound for these kids. And I am not making this story up. I mean, this is, this is awful. And that's the quiet destruction of negative expectations. And of course, the comment was just that much worse. But, you know, there's, you know, I, I said this before. There's a frequency to expectations that we have to respect and people can feel them even before we, we speak them. And I love this quote from John Wooden. He, John Wooden was the legendary UCLA coach who won all those national championships. And he said it beautifully. He said the best leaders are those who expect greatness from others and communicate that expectation with belief and not pressure. And you know, when someone believes in us, that belief transfers. I mean, it, it changes behavior and ambition. And those expectations fuel effort, effort drives, results, results reinforce belief, and it becomes a flywheel, just like compounding. I mean, compounding starts small, then accelerates. And if we can remove some of the noise and bias in investing and we put systems in place and let the investments do their job, that's the same idea behind the right expectations. And when we set the right expectations, we can uplift someone and give them direction and start to see them compound their behavior in a positive way. And expectation can be just a powerful compounding engine for leadership. And we can use them to elevate people or relegate, but the choice is ours. And Stig, I know you run a small business similar to the size of mine, and I'm wondering who in your world might rise if you simply expected more of them. And does the Rosenthal study resonate with you?

Stig Broderson (59:44)

It very much resonated with me. I had to say that I've forgotten everything about it until, well, I saw the outline. We'd sort of like been chatting back and forth and we talked about the study, and then something from my childhood sort of like popped up because I remember my mom telling me about it whenever I was a kid. So I haven't been thinking about it for the longest time. And some of you might be thinking, that's the weirdest thing for a mother to talk to a kid. I don't know if that's what you're thinking. My mom, she's retired now, but she used to work in early childhood education, so we probably spoke a bit more about children's psychology around the dinner table compared to the average family. So, anyways, no, it is a study I'm quite familiar with. And I can't help but say, tongue in cheek, that I'm a child of the 1980s. I was born in the 1980s. I was born just before kids were special. And I know I'm going to sound like a grumpy old man as I'm going to say this. You know, Socrates said like 400 years BC or so, there's like this. I'm going to butcher the quote, but it's something along the lines of, the children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authorities, they disrespect elders, and they love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants and not servants of the household. And so I know how ridiculous it's going to sound whenever I'm bashing the younger generation, because old people such as myself have been doing that for centuries. That said, I sometimes wonder about the new generation entering the workforce today who have been told they can do anything they want and who have parents who have removed every obstacle in your child's way. And, you know, we tried to fill a position at some point in time here in our company, and someone's father applied on behalf of his son, and needless to say, the son didn't get the job. But it's. I kind of feel like I'm a bit torn. Right. Because it's super empowering that kids are told, oh, you can do anything. But in reality, of course, kids are like the rest of us. They're humans and they have a lot of potential and they have a lot of limitations. And whenever they start, you know, after graduation or whatnot, they started to run the ladder. And I've noticed that a lot of people are completely unprepared for the fact that few, if any, are going to listen to them. They've taken this very nice education and they studied management, and they're like, I'm going to be the new CEO and then they get their own cubicle and no one cares and they're on their own. And they probably haven't developed the social skills to navigate a workplace with adults. I certainly hadn't after I started management. Now I came out of school. But anyways, striking the balance of setting the right expectations and then lift up young people is not easy. And again, most things are done with the best of intentions. I know you kindly asked into the team here and I'm shamelessly just going to use myself as an example here, but take it for what it is. David. But I remember I was probably 11 or 12, that's how I remember. But a family friend told me that it was expected that I would win at least one Nobel Prize. And perhaps it was just said as a joke, I don't know. Today I think that comment did more harm than good. And I don't know if anyone is familiar with Kel Greg's growth and fixed mindset, but I think probably because it spoke to my ego, I don't know. But I think that experience, perhaps a few others, kept me very much in a fixed mindset for the longest time. David, to your point, you know, whenever you are a business leader, you are a coach for everyone in your organization. Especially in a small organization like perhaps in large organizations with tens of thousands of employees, you're more indirectly involved in the development of the people. But the first thing you want to learn is how this specific employee is wired and what makes them tech. And there's this saying that to treat everyone equally, you have to treat them different. And I kind of think that's very true. Everyone wants to feel appreciated, but how they feel appreciated can vary. Some people like to be giving very few guidelines on a major project and then go out into the world and solve it and then hand it back to you. And then others like constant feedback and make sure they're on the right path. But then the first group might feel like they're micromanaged if you give a constant feedback, even if that's what you think that they want. So as a business leader, you are responsible for helping your team become the best version of yourself. And of course I've been on both sides of the table, both as an employer and as an employee. And I've heard as an employee, I've heard my colleagues complain about their bosses, about employees, million different things. But I've never heard an employee ever complain about their employer telling them too often how much they were appreciated. That's still left to be seen. And I've since taken that to heart and promised myself that if I ever had something nice to say to someone on the team, I will let them know. Because why, why wouldn't I? So this comes to mind because as I was, as I got this message from you the other day, David, I was reading a book about Michelangelo and it talked about how he was asked by the Pope about the famous David sculpture that you can see in Florence. And Michelangelo said that David was always there in the marble. He simply took away everything that was not David. And I want to make sure that our new host, or newish host, Daniel, he's already been with us for a year now. That was just the first thing I thought of. That dude has so much raw talent, it's unbelievable. And a part of my job is sort of metaphorically to see this big block of Marvel, but then find that future masterpiece that's there and help and guide him. And I don't necessarily know if I should do sort of like my analyst performance review here live on a podcast, but you know, it was just like one in real time example of, hey, I want to tell Daniel how much he was appreciated. So I did that the very next morning and I sent him a message about how awesome he was. And I hope he was happy about that message. And so I guess that's my way of saying that to the employers who are tuning in, like, please never hesitate to tell your team how much they are appreciated. Most bosses get their employees they deserve, and most employees get the bosses they deserve. And whenever you think about it like that, you might do a few things differently. But appreciation takes many shapes and forms and much has to do with what we are telling ourselves, because expectations are a complex thing. You know, most people have good intentions, but they can backfire, as we've seen so often. You can think of the parents who figuratively and metaphorically went hungry because they, they were wealthy and gave their kids everything they ever wanted because they did not want their kids to experience what they did. But really what they achieved was that they ruined their kids in the process. And so the way I approach people on, on my path is to access the current level and help guide them to the next level, whatever that next level is. And I typically would encourage also listeners here to extend trust and providing loved ones with those resources that they need and then together with them. For example, let's say that this is a team you're working with. We define goals, but then also make sure to get out of the way and then observe what happens whenever they do their Magic. And of course, the world isn't always that kind. You know, some ships will find a harbor and others won't, but your team will always grow in the process. And finally, I want to mention that you as a boss, might be the best person to see the potential in your team, but you might also be the worst because you might have these preconceived notions of what they can and can't do. Which goes back to your original point, David, about you have to update your lens all the time.

David Fagan (68:08)

Yeah, I mean, expectations, they can be complex. This is a wonderful conversation. And, you know, maybe sometimes they can have unintentional consequences. So, I mean, sometimes if we set the bar too high, people, and they. People don't rise to them, they. They might freeze. They might stop taking risks because they're afraid of letting you down. I mean, I. I think of this a lot as a parent, and there's such a fine line between setting expectations that can motivate your kids and pushing them so hard that they burn out or feel like they can never quite measure up. And, and you, you know, you'. Some personal stories on that. I mean, often in sports, the kids who last late into their teens and go beyond maybe high school and play at the next level at college and. And whatnot. Sometimes I've noticed that those are the kids that come from parents who didn't push their kids too hard. Yes, there's the Tiger woods and Serena Williams, parents of the world. But, you know, there. There's more that I've seen in my life where the kids who get to the next level, they're ones that didn't have too much expectations put onto them. I mean, it's complicated, and I think we'll just stop talking about parenting now. We can tackle that on another episode. But to your point about getting the boss and the employees you deserve, the older I get, the more I appreciate culture inside an organization. It's incredibly important and often underestimated. I mean, I wish there was a screen for public companies on culture like. Like, what is your culture like? And there was a box you can tick and get some information that way. I mean, maybe I'll just have to step up my scuttlebutt game, Stig. I don't know. But, you know, in terms of culture, to your point that you talked about, I mean, it's amazing how far simple things go, a thank you and recognizing someone for their efforts. I mean, those small signals can compound over time.

Stig Broderson (70:10)

I cannot think of a better way to end this episode, David, than with those words.

David Fagan (70:16)

This is lovely. Thank you so much. Just want to give a small shout out to some of the TIP community members that that we have and we're able to connect with and just thank Kyle and Clay for all their hard work in the community. It's lovely.

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