Stocks with Josh: Highest Conviction Play FAILED? [Review]

Summary

Wealth and Health Podcast

Episode: Stocks with Josh: Highest Conviction Play FAILED? [Review]

Host: David Jaffee
Date: December 30, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, David Jaffee reviews and critiques a recent stock picks video by "Stocks with Josh," focusing on the accuracy and outcomes of Josh’s highest conviction picks for October 2025. The discussion blends financial analysis with humor and skepticism, highlighting the performance of several stock picks and calling into question the credibility of trading advice based on technical analysis and discord group promotions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context and Skepticism About Discord Promotions

• The episode begins with a satirical critique of Josh’s frequent discord promotions, suggesting that Josh emphasizes only the winning trades and glosses over the losers (01:20–01:34).
• Skeptical co-commentators use exaggerated accents and humor to expose the selective success narratives in trading communities.

“I'm going to probably end up skipping through a lot of this because Josh likes to pump his discord and tell people that he's printing money in there.” – Skeptical Commentator (01:28)

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2. Review of Josh’s October Stock Picks

A. Serve (SRV)

• Josh recommends SRV, notes positive momentum, and advises raising stops for risk management (03:00–03:45).
• David points out the real outcome: by late December, SRV dropped from ~$15 to $11, a near 30% loss (04:03).

“As of December 23rd, serve is trading at around $11... you would be down slightly less than 30%.” – Editing David (04:03)

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B. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)

• Josh supports BMY as a beaten-down healthcare play (04:20).
• Skeptical Commentator notes it's a lower-risk pick, but not personally compelling (04:31).

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C. Google and Alibaba

• Josh touts these as strong options in September (04:39).
• The episode acknowledges Google as a solid pick, with less discussion on Alibaba (04:46).

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D. PayPal (PYPL) – Highest Conviction Play

• Touted as Josh’s top pick for October due to technical basing and anticipated explosive move (10:01–10:23).
• The reality: PayPal slips from ~$72 at recommendation to under $60 by December, a loss of ~$12 or ~16% (11:05).

“PayPal is actually trading below $60. So Josh recommended it around 72 and currently it's trading around $59.” – Editing David (05:07)

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E. Ethereum (ETH)

• Josh claims ETH is positioned well after breaking resistance (05:28–05:55).
• The price peaks at ~$4,500, but declines to ~$3,000 by December, a 33% fall (06:55).

“Had you listened to Josh, you would have lost about 33%.” – Editing David (06:55)

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F. Meta (META)

• Josh points to META as a solid buy after a mild cooldown (07:12–07:53).
• Actual performance: Drops from over $700 to as low as $580, a temporary loss of ~$120 at the low (07:33).

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G. Lyft (LYFT)

• Supported as a long-term breakout candidate (07:53); however, performance is down during the review period (08:11).

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H. Amazon (AMZN)

• Josh highlights a “breakout” expected above $224; price briefly touches $227.50 before retreating to $213, a ~5% loss from the breakout entry (09:04).

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3. The Critics’ Core Complaint: Selective Disclosure & Value of Technical Analysis

• The commentators repeatedly note that Josh’s discord and promotional tactics focus on wins, omitting or downplaying sizeable losses.
• Specific viewer comment is read out, imploring Josh to admit failed picks as readily as he celebrates winners (12:18–12:22).

“I have never seen any research studies that indicate that technical analysis has any value in predicting future price movements of stocks.” – Skeptical Commentator (12:22)

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4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• The running satirical refrain: “Join my discord, we printing money.” (Throughout)
• Multiple reference points where Editing David breaks the fourth wall with updated, real-time price checks for each stock pick.
• On Ethereum: “If you had done the exact opposite of what Josh recommended, then you would have made money.” – Discord Promoter / Master Chartist (06:12)
• On selective success: “You always bring up the stocks that go the right way... You never admit failed buys.” – Viewer Comment read by Skeptical Commentator (12:22)

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Important Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:28 | Satirical jabs at discord group promotions | | 03:00–03:45| Serve (SRV) recommendation and chart breakdown | | 04:03 | Serve outcome: Down nearly 30% as of December | | 04:20 | Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) review | | 05:07 | PayPal performance update – result: down $13 per share | | 05:28, 06:55| Ethereum assessment, peak, and significant ~33% fall | | 07:12–07:53| Meta analysis and linkage to real losses | | 08:11 | Lyft cited as 'long-term breakout' – outcome: losing pick | | 09:04–09:58| Amazon 'breakout' call, immediate reversal of gains | | 10:01–10:23| PayPal as 'highest conviction'; critique of actual result | | 12:22 | Read-out of audience criticism on selective disclosure |

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Tone and Style

The episode blends factual price-tracking and blunt financial analysis with humor, sarcasm, and a skeptical attitude toward technical analysis and paid trading groups. The commentators openly call out what they view as misleading promotional language, using accents, exaggeration, and meme-like phrasing while staying focused on the hard numbers.

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Conclusion

David Jaffee and his co-commentators deliver a pointed, entertaining audit of Josh’s October stock picks, emphasizing the disconnect between discord marketing and actual market outcomes. The review urges listeners to demand transparency from trading influencers, be wary of technical analysis promises, and verify results independently.

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Notable Quote:
“You always bring up the stocks that go the right way... You never admit failed buys. I like your chart analysis, but appreciate if you can admit failed buys as you celebrate successful trades too.” – Viewer Comment (12:22)

Transcript

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[David Jaffe]

My name is David Jaffe. Welcome to the wealth and Health Podcast where you'll learn valuable skills and positive habits that will improve your life. This podcast originally aired as a video on my YouTube channel at YouTube.com beststopstrategy. The wealth and Health Podcast is brought to you by BestStockStrategy.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

All right, the top stock picks to buy in October plus the October Watch List Analysis Stocks with Josh. This was posted on October 6th. Currently at this moment it is October

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

20th, but let's see what Josh has to say.

[Stocks with Josh]

All right, we've got some stocks to cover.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Is this on 2x speed? My bad.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

I'm going to probably end up skipping

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

through a lot of this because Josh likes to pump his discord and tell people that he's printing money in there.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Even though I just did a video on him when he recommended bull at $14.65 and currently is trading at around $11, which means that they lost about 25% on their investment. But my gut feeling is that in this video, even though I haven't seen it before, he's probably going to indicate that his members are printing in their discord too. Let's see what he says.

[Stocks with Josh]

Already an absolute fire. October. We started the month off with some uncertainty. The market hesitated for a moment and then we got the government shut down and the market said let's just buy this thing up and push it higher and making a lot of all time highs. Now I'm trying to identify still my best pick for the month of October for going into the tail end of

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

but you know, what about bull? We going to forget about that. We not going to mention that at all.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Wink wink.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

We going to talk about our winners.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

We going to forget about our losers. Okay? But let's just continue onwards.

[Stocks with Josh]

September we ran Tesla up very strong 40. But then I said let's take profit on it.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

I called the top yo, I'm telling

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

you, in my Discord, all you got to do is pay me money and you can see that we call them tops.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Okay? Now obviously I'm just joking. I'm exaggerating. I'm using fake accents. So I don't really know if he's going to say this, but let's see what he says.

[Stocks with Josh]

I'm still trying to identify that perfect pick for the month of October. And I'm going to share with you a bunch of stocks that I like and then I'm going to give you the one that I have today officially settled upon. So let's take a quick peek at the surf stock and let's have a little bit of a celebratory moment.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Yeah, because you see Josh, I probably ended up recommending it in my Discord when it was trading down here or maybe, maybe when it was down there. And now it's going to go over here and we going to print money. We printing, we printing.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Let's actually see what Serve is trading at. So Serve is currently trading at 1433. In this video it's trading close to $15.

[Stocks with Josh]

Said on Friday's video time to raise the stop up to 1190. It's do or die. This thing needs to stay above the nine ema, which is your yellow moving average line there on the bottom of this channel.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

All you gotta do is read the charts and join my discord and then I could predict future price movements.

[Editing David]

Future editing. David here. And as of December 23rd, serve is trading at around $11. And had you purchased it when Josh recommended it, you would be down slightly less than 30%.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Let's see what his other recommendations are.

[Stocks with Josh]

BMY stock, Bristol Myers Squib. I still like this as a beat down health care that seems to be turning the corner and will begin to move with some of the other bmy.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

It's definitely not the worst stock, has been beaten down a lot. I think it's relatively low risk. It's definitely not a stock that I would invest in, but I think it's okay.

[Stocks with Josh]

Health care movers like Google was my best stock to invest in alongside BABA for the month of September.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Yep. So Google's a great play, good job.

[Stocks with Josh]

And what I do see though in the stock is that they've been performing very well and they've been underrated. They've become an undergoing on Wall Street. And I think that they're basing from a chart perspective. PayPal was about seven sleep on PayPal editing David here.

[Editing David]

And as of December 22nd, PayPal is actually trading below $60. So Josh recommended it around 72 and currently it's trading around $59. I believe that Josh made PayPal his highest conviction play in October yet. It's down around $13 from where he recommended it.

[Stocks with Josh]

And then a crypto has made the list and that's Ethereum. We go into the Ethereum chart, it had a three top resistance line that

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

eventually that, yeah, let's just throw some words out there that it came off

[Stocks with Josh]

of and fell into despair and eventually we broke out, pushed above it. We've come back and back, tested it and bounced. So Ethereum looks extremely well positioned for the month of October.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

I think so about 4,500. Let's see what it's trading at right now.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Oh, bummer, bummer, bummer.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

It's down $500. Ironically when Josh made that video trading about 4500, that was actually the top for all of October.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

So Josh called the top even though he said that it was going to go higher. If you had done the exact opposite of what Josh recommended, then you would have made money. But if you had listened to Josh then you would have lost money.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Oh, bummer. He was trading at about 4,500. Now it's currently trading at about 4,000.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

That is a loss of around 11%. And all you gotta do is join my discord to get some of these amazing picks.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

Let's see what his other recommendations are

[Stocks with Josh]

back and test its recent high. That's my prediction for Ethereum. So Ethereum looks extremely well positioned for for the month of October and I think it can go back and test its recent high.

[Editing David]

Editing David here. And as of December 22, Ethereum is trading slightly below 3,000. So Josh recommended it at 4,500 and currently it's trading for around 3,000. That's a drop of around 33%.

[Stocks with Josh]

That's my prediction for Ethereum. And then Meta. Now Meta, you got to watch it very carefully when you look at that chart. Fact is, there's nothing wrong with it. It's been an extremely strong mover and it simply had a mild cooldown or cool off and stock is going to go up.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

So Meta, meta, Meta, let's see what it was trading at on October 6th.

[Editing David]

On October 6th, Meta was trading over 700 and then it actually fell below 600 and traded for a low of about $580. So if you had listened to stocks with Josh and purchased it at around the 700 level at 1 time, you would have been down around $120.

[Stocks with Josh]

And past its recent all time high. And you're going to be kicking yourself for ignoring it. On the pullback. Then we've got Lyft. Lyft has been struggling to carve out their niche in the space, but they're still a significant player and I think that the stock is getting ready to go on a long term breakout move. I like Lyft for the month of

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

October, so that's actually down as well.

[Stocks with Josh]

And then Amazon, now Amazon and Apple really lagged, so we can make up a little bit of ground and Amazon could be a huge robbery.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

But all you got to do is pay me money to join my discord.

[Stocks with Josh]

More on Amazon leaps. Let's go check that out. You can see that it's steadily climbing. It's actually above 220. And I mentioned before, 222 to 224 is the breakout zone, which we could easily hit tomorrow. And you can see that there's nothing but thin air between 222 and 232. This is where the next level of resistance would occur. Here at 232, it's still under the shadow of a recent bearish candle, but I'm confident in it. I like it. I just am going to wait until I get that confirmation of the price above 224 to signal that it's a green light for me, that I'm going to go in a little heavier. So. So out of those.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Okay, for Amazon, let's look at the chart. Because he posted that video on October 6th. So he waited and used his chart for confirmation of the bullish bias that Amazon would explode higher than 2:24, just like he said in the video. So let's assume that he purchased at 2:24 and it actually hit a high of around 2:27 and a half. And then. Oh no. Josh, what happened to your charts? What happened to your charts, Josh? Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God. Now, it's currently trading at 213. That means that if you bought in the best case scenario at 224, just like you said in that video, then you are down $11 divided by 224. You are down around 4.9%. Josh, what about them charts though, boy? What about in?

[Stocks with Josh]

Okay, which one do I like the most for a position right now? Well, it's going to be PayPal and I'm going to shoot you straight. Why do I like it? Because this one has spent the longest amount of time basing. It's building a series of higher lows and it looks positioned to have the most explosive move between now and the middle of 2026.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

So again, when he recorded this video, it was $71 and 50 cents.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Let's say you got it around $71.29. And currently at this moment, it's 67 41. That is a loss of around $3.90. So let's do 390 divided by 7129. And for your highest conviction play, as of October 20th, you are only down around 5.0.47%. In my highest conviction play. Because yo y's gotta pay me money because I am the master chartist.

[Editing David]

And as of December 23, 2025, PayPal is trading at slightly below $60 a share. That means that had you listened to Josh, you would be down approximately $11.50 for purchasing his highest conviction play.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Yo y' all gotta pay me money because I am the master chartist. And you want amazing picks like this like Ethereum and Amazon and PayPal. Well, in just a few weeks, you're gonna be down by about 4 to 10%. But join my discord because we printing money in there yoke, homie. Come on, we printing.

[Stocks with Josh]

We printing 200 or 300% now. Hard to find a big tech. Let's see what else versus the confidence they have in PayPal.

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

All right, it seems like that's it. Obviously I made a lot of jokes in this video with the accent, the exaggeration, the hyperbolic use of language and things of that nature. The current prices that I showed are real. And it seems to me like a lot of his plays are losers. Ethereum is also down around 11%. PayPal is also down around 5%. I mean, come on.

[Discord Promoter / Master Chartist]

Once again, I have never seen any

[Skeptical Commentator / Critic]

research studies that indicate that technical analysis has any value in predicting future price movements of stocks. Maybe you disagree with me. Let me know your thoughts. There have also been a lot of people complaining that he ignores the losers and only harps on the winners. Let me show you some of that as well. Someone wrote what happened in Poet need to bring up the stocks that have gone the wrong way, as you always bring up the stocks that go the right way. Then you mentioned TTD when it was 50. It got hit so hard and you never spoke about it again. Enphase was a huge failure too. You never admit failed buys. I like your chart analysis, but appreciate if you can admit failed buys as you celebrate successful trades too. If you have any questions, leave a comment below.

[Editing David]

And if you liked this video, then click on the video that's popping up on your screen right now because I believe that you're going to like it even more.

[David Jaffe]

Visit beststockstrategy.com and submit your email address to receive valuable free training. Please give this podcast a positive reading and review. If you have any questions, visit beststock strategy.com and send me a message.

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