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Wealth Formula by Buck Joffrey
Hosted by Buck Joffrey · EN
Financial Education and Entrepreneurship for Professionals
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549: You’re Successful… Until You’re Not — with Rod Khleif
Mar 1000:37:50Tap to summarizeI recently had a long conversation with a very successful professional. He’s 58 years old. Highly educated. Respected in his field. Financially sophisticated — in fact, his job depends on understanding money. If you looked at his résumé, you would assume he was completely set for life. He wasn’t. A couple of bad investments. Some concentration risk. A few decisions that looked reasonable at the time. And suddenly he’s essentially back at ground zero — trying to start a new business at 58. This story is far more common than people realize. The Dangerous Assumption is that many successful professionals assume they’ll be fine. Doctors. Lawyers. Executives. Entrepreneurs. They make high incomes. They understand finance. They know about markets and interest rates and diversification. They focus on their career. They focus on income. They even focus on investing. What they don’t focus on is their own financial future with the same intensity they focus on their profession. There’s a difference. Being financially literate is not the same thing as being financially intentional. Especially when you assume you always have more time. The Good News at 58 is that he still has time. A lot of time. For entrepreneurs especially, it doesn’t take 25 years to rebuild. It can take five. There’s a quote often attributed to Bill Gates: “Most people overestimate what they can accomplish in one year and underestimate what they can accomplish in five.” That quote is brutally accurate. In one year, starting a business feels overwhelming. Progress feels slow. Revenue is inconsistent. Doubt creeps in. But five years? Five years of focused effort, smart strategy, capital discipline, and experience compounded? That can change your entire financial trajectory. I’ve Seen This Movie Before. I have a very good friend who was worth over $40 million in his early 30s during the real estate boom. Then 2008 happened. The real estate debacle didn’t just dent him — it wiped him out. For years, he struggled. Pride gone. Lifestyle reset. Just trying to survive. Most people would have mentally retired at that point. They would have blamed the market, blamed the system, blamed bad luck. But about six or seven years ago, he found his rhythm again. New strategy. New focus. New discipline. Today, he’s worth over $60 million. I get that’s not normal. But it proves something important. It Doesn’t Take a Lifetime. The examples I just gave are extreme. Most people don’t lose $40 million. Most people aren’t rebuilding at 58. But the principle is universal: It doesn’t take a lifetime to secure your future. It takes a focused season. A defined period where you are intensely clear about your objective. A stretch where: • You work harder than you’re comfortable with • You manage risk better than you used to • You stop assuming income equals security • You align your decisions with a specific financial target for the future There’s another quote I love: “The harder you work, the luckier you get.” Luck isn’t random. It compounds around preparation, visibility, and persistence. When you are laser-focused on a financial goal, you start seeing opportunities others miss. You make better introductions. You ask sharper questions. You move faster when something makes sense. And over time, it looks like “luck.” The story of the 58-year-old professional isn’t a warning about markets. It’s a warning about complacency. Success in your profession does not automatically translate into security in your future. Income is not wealth. Financial literacy is not financial strategy. And intelligence does not eliminate risk. But here’s the good news. If you’re in your 40s or 50s and feel behind — you’re not done. If you made a bad investment — you’re not finished. If you took a hit — that’s not your final chapter. You may just be at the beginning of your five-year season. The key is focus. Direct yourself to a destination you can visualize. That’s the only way you will get there. Because in the end, securing your future rarely requires a lifetime of perfection. It requires a concentrated period of intensity. And the sooner you decide to enter that season — the sooner your next five years will start compounding in your favor. There is no one who knows this reality more than this week’s guest on Wealth Formula, Rod Khleif . Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qogQNGbK9wk Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/549-youre-successful-until-youre-not-with-rod-khleif/id718416620?i=1000753860685 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7mTzyRJxjnkeiVFGCXfOni Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with Dwell Formula Podcast. Coming to you from Montecito, California, I wanna remind you that there is a website associated with this podcast called wealthformula.com. That’s where you go if you wanna. Become, uh, more, uh, involved with this community, including our accredited investor club, AKA investor club, uh, very easy to join. It’s free. All you do is you get onboarded and you see lots of, uh, potential deal flow that you wouldn’t otherwise see again, that is wealthformula.com. Simply click on investor club and get onboarded. Now, as for today’s show, I had a, uh, a long conversation with a very successful professional, recently 58, highly educated, respected, financially sophisticated, in fact, in the money business. Uh, and if you look at his resume, you would assume he was completely set for life, but he wasn’t. A couple of bad investments, some concentration risk. A few decisions that looked reasonable at the time, and suddenly he’s back pretty much to ground zero trying to figure out what to do, and he’s thinking about starting a new business or maybe buying a business. Well, that got me thinking because the reality is this story is far more common than people realize, and I actually hear it fair amount. Right? Many successful professionals assume they’re gonna be fine. Doctors, lawyers, executives, entrepreneurs, making high incomes. Maybe they understand finance, they know about markets, interest rates and diversification in theory. But here’s the trap. You focus on your career. You focus on income. What they don’t focus on is their own financial future with the same intensity. They focus on the profession, and that’s. The difference, right? The issue is that being financially literate is not the same thing as being financially intentional. Now, I actually hate that word because it’s a very, uh, uh, neo agey word intentional. But in this case, I will use it because that it’s very, it’s very appropriate. But here’s the good news, even at 58, right, you still have time. You have a lot of time for, especially for entrepreneurs, it doesn’t take 25 years to rebuild. It can take five. And there’s this quote, um, it’s often attributed to Bill Gates, who, who’s been in the news lately for a lot of other stuff, but this is a good quote. He says, most people overestimate what they can accomplish in one year and underestimate what they can accomplish in five. And that quote is so true. I will, it’s incredibly powerful and it’s very, very useful to think about and. Put in the back of your mind because in a year, like you’re saying, you’re starting a business, it’s gonna feel overwhelming. You may lose money, you know, slow progress, revenue, inconsistent five years, you know, with focused effort and you know, good strategy and discipline. The financial trajectory of your life could completely change over that five years. In fact, I will say that with my first business that I ever started, that is absolutely what happened. I was just pretty much outta residency, didn’t have any money, and within five years I was rocking and rolling. You know, it was a, it was, you know, it wasn’t worth, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars. But I, I, I was, I was doing way better. If y...
Transcribe →AI Is About to Trigger an Energy Crisis Most People Don’t See Coming
Mar 300:30:11Tap to summarizeThere is one truth that has followed every major technological revolution in human history. Energy demand always rises to meet technological capability. When we industrialized, coal consumption exploded. When we built the modern transportation system, oil demand reshaped global geopolitics. When we entered the digital age, electricity quietly became the backbone of the global economy. And now we are entering the AI era. What most people don’t appreciate is that AI is not just a software revolution. It is an electricity revolution. Training a single advanced AI model can consume as much electricity as tens of thousands of homes use in an entire year. And once trained, these models continue to run inside data centers filled with specialized hardware operating 24 hours a day. A single large AI data center can require over 1 gigawatt of power. To put that into perspective, that’s enough electricity to power roughly 700,000 homes. One building consuming the equivalent of a major city. Now consider that companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are planning dozens of these facilities. Suddenly, you begin to see the scale of what’s happening. Even individual AI queries consume more power than traditional computing tasks meaningfully. One estimate suggests an AI query can use roughly 10 times the electricity of a traditional search query. That difference seems trivial until you multiply it by billions of interactions per day. This is why, for the first time in decades, electricity demand in the United States is accelerating again. For nearly 20 years, electricity demand was relatively flat. Efficiency gains offset economic growth. But AI, electrification of transportation, and domestic manufacturing are reversing that trend. And here’s where the story becomes even more interesting. China understands this. China is building power infrastructure at a pace that is difficult to comprehend. They are adding entire national-scale power capacity every few years. In 2023 alone, China added more new coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined. At the same time, they are installing solar and wind at record rates, becoming the global leader in renewable deployment. They are not choosing one energy source. They are choosing all of them. Because they understand that energy availability determines technological leadership. Meanwhile, in the United States, building new power plants and transmission infrastructure can take a decade or more due to regulatory hurdles, permitting delays, and political resistance. This creates a very real risk. The country that can generate the most reliable, scalable energy will have a structural advantage in AI, manufacturing, and economic growth. Energy is becoming the limiting factor. And whenever something becomes a bottleneck, investment opportunities emerge. We are entering a period where trillions of dollars will be spent on power generation, grid modernization, nuclear energy, solar, battery storage, geothermal, and technologies that most people have never even heard of. Some of the biggest fortunes of the next decade will likely be tied directly or indirectly to solving this energy constraint. In today’s episode, we explore alternative energy sources, the challenges we face, and the technologies that may power the future. Because understanding energy is no longer optional if you want to understand where the world is going. And as investors, those who see these shifts early have the opportunity to position themselves ahead of the crowd. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D0Lpmq0SAvo Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/548-ai-is-about-to-trigger-an-energy-crisis-most/id718416620?i=1000752299883 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5l4674hFIJPWkz0spMq4YL Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffery, the Wealth Formula podcast. And today, before we begin, I wanna remind you as always, there is a website associated with this podcast, wealthformula.com. That’s where you want to go. If you have, uh, an interest in uh, ing more in the community in particular, there is a, a credit investor club. AKA investor club, which you need to sign up for. Uh, go to wealthformula.com and see some private deal flow at, uh, no cost to you, uh, that, uh, you might have an interest in. Uh, let’s talk about today’s show. It’s a little bit about, uh, something. You know, that is, uh, on I think, a, a major issue, uh, going into the next decade. Um, you know, there’s one truth that’s followed. Every major technological revolution in human history. Energy demand is always rise, uh, to meet technological capability. You know, when we industrialize, uh, coal consumption exploded, obviously when we built modern transportation system oil. Demand, uh, reshaped global geopolitics. And when he entered the digital age, electricity became the backbone of the global economy, and now we’re entering the era of artificial intelligence. Now, what most people don’t appreciate is that AI is not just a software revolution, it’s an electricity revolution. Uh, training a single advanced AI model can consume as much electricity as literally tens of thousands of homes in an entire year. And once trained, these models continue to run inside data centers filled with specialized hardware operating 24 hours a day. A single large AI data center can require what’s called a entire one gigawatt of power. Now, what’s a gigawatt? Well, to put this all into perspective, that’s enough electricity to power. Roughly 700,000 homes, one building consuming the equivalent of a major city. Now, consider that companies like Microsoft, Google Meta, Amazon, they’re applying to build dozens of these facilities, and suddenly you begin to see the scale of what’s happening. Uh, even individual AI queries when you do them, they consume a lot more power than traditional computing tasks. Um, there’s an estimate that suggests that an AI query. Can use roughly 10 times the electricity of a traditional, uh, search query. The difference seems trivial until you multiply that by like billions of these interactions per day. And that is why for the first time in decades, electricity demand in the United States is accelerating again and doing so quickly. Now you might ask, well, you know, what’s been happening for the last 20 years? Well, electricity demand was actually relatively. Flat. And a lot of that is because of efficiency gains, offsetting economic growth, but ai, electrification of transportation, domestic manufacturing, they’re all gonna reverse that trend. And, and here’s where the story becomes even more interesting, because we know that China already understands this. China’s building power infrastructure at a pace that’s difficult to really even comprehend. They’re adding entire national skill, power, capacity every few years. In 2023 alone, China added more new coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined. And at the same time, they’re installing solar, wind, all these things at record rates becoming really the global leader in re renewable deployment. So you don’t think of China is that way, but they are. They’re not choosing one energy source. They’re choosing all of them. And because they understand that energy availability will determine technological leadership. Meanwhile, in the US things are kind of slower. Building a, a new power plant and transmissions infrastructure can take a decade or more. We got lots of regulatory hurdles and permitting delays in political resistance that the Chinese don’t have, and that creates a lot of risk. The country that can generate the most reliable, scalable energy, we’ll have a structural advantage in AI manufacturing and economic growth. And that is a big, big deal because energy at the end of the day is becoming. The limiting factor for growth, and whenever something becomes a bottleneck, you also get investment opportunities that emerge. So we’re entering a period where trillions of dollars will be spent on power generation, grid modernization, nuclear energy, solar battery, geothermal, you name it. And a lot of those things you’ve never heard of. Some of the biggest fortunes of the next decades will be tied directly or indirectly to solving these ener...
Transcribe →545: Should You Invest in Hotels?
Feb 1100:35:19Tap to summarizeFor most of my career, I’ve been focused on two things: Operating businesses and Multifamily real estate. The strategy has been pretty simple. Take money generated from higher-risk, active businesses… and move it into more stable, long-term assets like apartment buildings. That shift—from risk to stability—is how I’ve tried to build durability over time. Now, to be fair, the sharp rise in interest rates a few years ago put a dent in that model. But zooming out, it’s still worked well for me overall. So I’m sticking with it. That said, there are other ways to think about real estate. In some cases, the real opportunity is when you combine real estate with an operating business. We’ve done that before in the Wealth Formula Investor Club with self-storage, and the results were excellent. Storage is operationally simple, relatively boring—and that’s exactly why it works. But there’s another category that sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. Hotels. They’re sexier.They’re more volatile.And yes—they’re riskier. But the upside can be dramatically higher. One of my closest friends here in Montecito has quietly built a fortune doing boutique hotels over the past few years. He started with a no-frills hotel in Texas serving the oil drilling industry. Over time, he combined his operational experience with his talent as a designer—and eventually created some of the highest-rated boutique hotels in the world. He’s absolutely crushing it. Of course, most of us aren’t world-class designers or architects. I’m certainly not. Still, his success made me curious. Hotels have been on my radar for a while now—not because I understand the business, but because I don’t. When I asked him how he learned the hotel industry, his answer was honest: “I figured it out on the fly—starting with my first acquisition and a great broker.” That’s usually how real learning happens. So this week on the Wealth Formula Podcast, I brought on an expert in hospitality investing to educate both of us. We cover the basics: How hotel investing actually worksWhere the real risks are (and where they aren’t)How returns differ from multifamilyAnd what someone should understand before ever touching their first hotel deal If you’ve ever thought about buying or investing in hotels—but didn’t know where to start—welcome to the club. You don’t have to jump in tomorrow. But you do have to start somewhere. This episode is a good starting point. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/545-should-you-invest-in-hotels/id718416620?i=1000748759003 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Lx5Rp4x704lWRazWLqDOK Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GMFf6-g8w_0 Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, if you’ve not done so and you are an accredited investor, go to wealthformula.com, sign up for our investor club. Uh, the opportunity there is really to see private deal flow that you wouldn’t otherwise see because it can’t be advertised. And, uh, only available to those people who are deemed accredited. And then what does accredited mean as a reminder? Well, if you’re married, you make $300,000 per year combined for at least two years with a reasonable expectation, continue to do so, or you have a net worth of a million dollars outside of your personal residence. Or if you’re single like me, $200,000 per year or a million dollars net worth. Anyway, that’s probably, uh, most of you. So all you gotta do is go to wealth formula.com, sign up for investor club because hey, who doesn’t wanna be part of a club? And, uh, by the way, it’s a great price. It’s free. So join it. Just get onboarded and all you gotta do is just wait for deal flow. What a deal. Now let’s talk about different kinds of things to invest in. For most of my career, I, I have really focused on two things I’ve focused on. Either operating businesses, uh, in my case, those operating businesses largely have been medical and multifamily real estate. Uh, the strategy itself, theoretically the way I think about it, take money from sort of these active businesses, a higher risk, move them into more stable long-term assets like apartment buildings. Okay? The idea is that’s how you build some durability over time. Now, to be fair, okay, to be fair. Sharp rise in interest rates a few years ago. Put a little bit of a dent in that model. But here’s the thing is that you can’t throw out the, uh, baby with the bath water. ’cause when I zoom out, still worked well for me overall. So I’m sticking with it and, uh, that’s my story. I’m sticking with it. That said, there are always other ways to think about real estate, right? Real estate is not just multifamily. Um, in some cases, the real opportunity is when you combine real estate and operating businesses. So. We’ve actually done that before in our wealth formula investor club. Um, and we’ve done that through self-storage, for example, and the results were really good. Storage is operationally, generally pretty simple. Probably not that simple, but you know, but more so than other things, relatively boring. Boring is good, and that’s exactly why it works. There’s another category that sits at the opposite end of the spectrum of boring, and it’s sexier and it’s more volatile and it’s riskier. And uh, that is the area of hotels, right, like leisure, that kind of thing. But the upside in those things can be dramatically higher. You know, one of my closest friends here. Montecito, I talk about him all the time. He’s a, he is a little bit of an inspiration to me, although I wouldn’t tell that to in space. He’s built a fortune doing boutique hotels over the past few years and the way he started, you know, and I think it was only about a decade ago because he bought like this no frills hotel in Texas that was serving the oil industry. There was a bunch of guys, you know, drilling needed a place to say, and you know, he had this and he actually. I don’t know that I would recommend this, but he, he told me he bought it sight unseen just based on the numbers. Ah, man, I gotta tell you, I don’t think I’m that lucky. If I bought something sight unseen, it would not work great for me, but it did work great for him. But over time, what he did is he, he combined his operational experience with his talent as he’s like a designer, like designs, homes, an architect, uh, of sorts, although more than that. Um, and he, he used to build houses for like famous people in Hollywood. Anyway, he took that skill and so he combined it with hotels and he created some of the highest rated boutique hotels in the world. And he’s absolutely crushing it. Just crushing it. Of course, the reality is that most of us aren’t world-class designers or architects. I’m certainly not. I’m not artistic at all. Still, um, you know, the fact that he’s had so much success in this space and that he loves hotels. What got me curious? So, hotels have been on my radar for a while, not because I understand the business, but actually because I don’t. And when I asked him how he learned, uh, about the hotel industry, he just said, you know, I figured out on the fly and, uh, you know, started with my first acquisition, had a great broker who taught me everything I, you know, needed to know at the beginning and. That’s a great story. I mean, and ideally that’s how things happen. As you can tell, this guy is, uh, seems to just hit on everything. So good for him. So this week on Wealth Formula Podcast, I wanted to get a little bit of a hotel investing 1 0 1. So I brought on an expert in hospitality investing that could educate both you and me. So we’re gonna cover some of the basics, how hotel actually works, you know, what are the risks returns. Like, what should people do if they even consider, you know, buying their first hotel or investing in one? So if you’ve ever thought about investing, uh, in hotels, or maybe that’s the first time you’re hearing about it and you’re curious, uh, welcome to the club and uh, we will have a great interview for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Ev...
Transcribe →544: Why the Sahm Rule Matters — and Why the Big Picture Matters More
Feb 300:49:51Tap to summarizeThis week’s episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she’s often misunderstood in the headlines. First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English. The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II. That’s why it gets cited so much. And to be clear — it’s cited a lot. The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That’s not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have. But here’s the part that often gets lost. The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.” In other words, it’s a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic. What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we’re seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren’t firing people — they’re just not expanding. That distinction matters. And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general. When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough, future leadership will. History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. That doesn’t mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent. And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. That’s why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy. This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I’ve been talking about for a long time:The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made this mistake myself. If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you’ll get a lot out of this episode. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Well Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, uh, listen, we’re back in, uh, back in the saddle in here in, uh, 2026. I know it’s takes some time to get used to it, but we’re, gosh, we’re at the end of the month actually by the time this plays. I think we’re in February. It’s time again to start thinking about investing. And so if you are interested in potentially using this year, which I believe and which many believe to potentially be the last year, uh, big discounts, uh, in real estate and, uh, various other types of offerings. Make sure. To sign up for the Accredit Investor group, our investor club, as we call it wealthformula.com. You do need to be an accredit investor and then you get onboarded. An accredit investor is just defined by who you are. If you make over $300,000 per year filing jointly, or 200 by yourself, every reasonable expectation to do so in the future. Or you have a net worth of a million dollars outta your personal, outside of your personal residence, you’re an accredit investor. Congratulations. Join the club wealthformula.com. Interesting podcast. Today we have, uh, Claudia Sahm She’s a Big Deal, Claudia Sahm. You may recognize that last name som, for this som rule. And what is a som rule in plain English. You actually have heard of the som rule multiple times from other economists who’ve been on the show. The som rule looks at unemployment. And asks a very simple question. Now, has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? So specifically, if the three month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more above its lowest level, over the past year, this som rule is triggered. Now, historically, that has happened early in every US recession since the World War ii. That’s why it gets cited so much. It gets cited a lot. By the way, the sum rule is tracked by the Fed treasury economists, wall Street Banks, macro funds, economic research shops globally, and when it triggers, it shows up everywhere, and that’s not by accident. Uh, Claudia has built one of the cleanest early warning indicators we have, but here’s the part that often gets lost. The som rule is not a market timing tool, and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia, uh, emphasized that repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal, a way to say, Hey, if unemployment’s rising this fast, wait, waiting too long to respond makes things worse. In other words, it’s call to action for policy makers, not a command for investors to panic per se. So what makes this cycle unusual and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful? Well, it’s what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. Um, what we’re seeing instead is very weak. Hiring companies aren’t firing people, they’re just not expanding, and that distinction matters. This is where the big picture comes in, not just for understanding the economy. For investing in general and when you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that need interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. I’ve mentioned this before and it includes the reality that have to fed, fed, uh, if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough. I am likely the case that future leadership appointed by. Donald Trump himself, uh, will, so history tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need, even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments. And even if it takes a shift towards a more dovish federal reserve. Uh, that doesn’t mean, uh, reckless money printing tomorrow, but it does mean that structurally. High interest rates are unlikely to be permanent. Okay? And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. Okay? That’s really, really important, and that’s why I continue to focus on things like real estate, right? Real estate is currently. Not for long, in my opinion, but deeply discounted things like multifamily real estate, um, that were repriced brutally during the rate shot, uh, but are still at the center of a growing and, and rent dependent economy. And again, uh, this conversation with Claudia reinforced something that I’ve been talking about a long time, which is the biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made that mistake myself. I am not immune. I have made lots of mistakes, and that’s one of them. So this is a great conversation. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it, especially if you want a thoughtful, nons sensational data-driven discussion. Where we are actually at in this cycle and what these indicators really mean. I think you’ll get a lot of this episode and we will have this conversation for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps. Paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthfo...
Transcribe →543: Avoiding Misinformation in the Era of Fake News
Jan 2700:39:56Tap to summarizeOne of the biggest risks people face when trying to understand the economy, investing, or personal finance isn’t a lack of information. It’s the illusion of being informed—while quietly limiting the sources that shape your thinking. We live in a world where information is everywhere. Podcasts, X threads, YouTube clips, newsletters, reels. But abundance doesn’t equal diversity. In fact, the algorithms behind social media are designed to do the opposite: they show you more of what you already agree with. Over time, your worldview narrows—not because you chose it to, but because it was curated for you. I noticed this years ago when I started listening to alternative asset podcasts.  At first, it felt refreshing—new ideas, new language, new opportunities outside the mainstream. But after a while, something became obvious. Many of these shows were operating inside an echo chamber. Different hosts. Same conclusions. Same narratives. Same villains. Same heroes. It was as if they were all listening to one another and simply regurgitating the same ideas, reinforcing them in a closed loop until they felt like truth. And to be fair—knowing many of these hosts personally—that’s often the business model. Audience reinforcement is rewarded. Dissent is not.  Ever since then, I’ve made a conscious effort to study people I don’t naturally agree with. Not because I want to adopt their views—but because I want to stress-test my own. This matters more now than ever because social media accelerates groupthink at scale. When an idea gains traction online, disagreement quickly becomes social friction. It’s easier to conform, retweet, and nod along than to pause and ask, “What if this is wrong?” I once had a conversation with Robert Kiyosaki where he told me he actually gets worried when everyone in the room agrees about the economy. When viewpoints converge too neatly, it’s usually a sign that critical thinking has been replaced by consensus comfort—and that’s exactly where blindsides are born. If your goal is to get closer to the truth, you must seek out opinions that challenge your own. That includes people you disagree with—especially people you disagree with. Truth doesn’t emerge from unanimity. It emerges from tension. And that applies to me as well. Daon’t let me—or anyone else—be your sole source of information. No matter how much you trust someone, outsourcing your thinking is always a risk. I can tell you from personal experience that in economics and personal finance, narrow perspectives lead to surprises you only recognize in hindsight. Those are the moments people regret most—not because they lacked intelligence, but because they lacked perspective. Financial education is critical. But a real curriculum doesn’t just confirm what you already believe. It exposes you to competing frameworks, conflicting data, and uncomfortable questions—and forces you to think for yourself. That’s how you build conviction that actually holds up when the world changes. This week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast examines this groupthink problem on a broader scale throughout society with an author who wrote a bestseller on our inherent appetite for misinformation.  It’s a fascinating conversation that will surely get you thinking about the way you view the world. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. You can imagine people who are conflict avoidant, probably not so likely to post online, as opposed to people who are conflict approaching who love a fight, right? If that’s, if those are the folks who are more likely to post, that’s gonna shape our information space in really, really important ways. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast. Coming to you from Montecito, California today. Uh, wanna remind you before we begin, there is a website associated with this podcast called wealthformula.com. That’s where you go if you wanna get more involved with, uh, the show, with the community, uh, specifically, um, if you are interested. There is a sign up there for something called investor club, which if you aren’t a credit investor, you sign up basically, uh, you, uh, get onboarded and then you can see potential deal flow that’s not available to the public. And, uh, lots of things going on in there. Real estate, we’ve had stuff in the aircraft spaced, um, interesting stuff. You should check it out for sure. If you are, uh, enter credit investor. And again, that is wealthformula.com. Just click on investor Club. Now today, let’s talk a little bit of, you know, just let’s talk a little bit about one of the biggest risks that people face when trying to understand the economy of investing personal finance. It’s not lack of information, right? These days, there’s an enormous amount of information. It’s just the illusion of being informed while quietly limiting the sources that shape your thinking in the first place. So we live in this world. I live in this world too, where information is everywhere. You got podcasts, you got X, you got YouTube newsletters, reels, random emails. Abundance of information doesn’t really equal diversity. In fact, the algorithms behind social media are designed to do the opposite. They just show you more of what you already agree with, and that is a little bit of a problem because over time your worldview really starts to narrow. And not because you chose to narrow it necessarily, but because it was curated for you. You know, I noticed this myself, uh, several years ago when I started listening to podcasts like my own. Even before I started my podcast. And what happens is that you get, initially you get kind of interested ’cause the stuff resonates with you. You get some ideas, you get new language, new opportunities outside the mainstream. But after a while you start to realize, or I start to realize that, you know, these shows were sort of operating inside of an echo chamber. They’re saying the same thing, different house, same conclusions, same narratives, villain. Same heroes, you know, it was as, again, it was as if they were all listening to one another and, and simply regurgitating the same ideas and reinforcing them, uh, in a, in a closed loop. Um, and when you do that, it starts to feel like truth. And to be fair, knowing many of these hosts personally, that is kind of the business model. You know, audience reinforcement is rewarded, descent is not so ever since then. You know, I’ve actually made a conscious effort to study people. I don’t, uh, naturally agree with. I actually don’t listen to any other personal finance podcasts, uh, that are sort of in this alternative space because I already know kind of what our narratives are. I wanna know what others think. I wanna, uh, I, it’s not necessarily that I’m looking to adopt their views, but because I wanna kind of, you know, challenge my own and this matters more now than ever. Again, because of social media. How that accelerates group think at scale. You know, when an idea gains traction online, um, you know, disagreement quickly becomes social friction. Now I think the thing to do is, you know, always be questioning yourself and asking the question really, what if I’m wrong? What if this narrative is wrong? And it reminds me actually once, uh, you know, I’ve had a chance to spend a little time with Robert Kiyosaki. Period, uh, different, different times, and I still. Kind of consider him a mentor. And I remember being at a table with him, a bunch of people talking about, you know, where the, where the economy was, what’s going on. And he looked at me and he says, this is what gets me nervous. I said, what, what gets you nervous? And he says, everyone here, everyone here, even people who normally disagree with one another, are agreeing with each other. Uh, the point is that when some of these, you know, viewpoints converge too neatly. Uh, it’s usually a sign, uh, that, you know, that critical thinking has kind of been replaced, and that’s exactly where you start to get blindside and where, you know, there’s a danger there that there’s something that no one’s, no one else has really even mentioning anymore. So if your goal is to get closer to the truth, you actually have to seek out opinions that challenge your own, and that includes. People you disagree with, especially people you disagree with. Because you know, truth doesn’t really emerge from unanimous thought. It emerges from sort of that tension and challenging, and that applies to me as well. You know, if I’m the only personal finance podcast you listen to, you probably shouldn’t be because I have, you know, made my own conclusions based on what I’m thinking and what I’m listening to. I try to get people. Um, you know, from different spaces talking about stuff, but the reality is that, you know, everyone’s biased. I’m biased too. So, um, you know, I can tell you from personal experience, uh, that in economics and in personal finance, the problem is that when you have these narrow perspectives, um, they often lead to. To prizes. Uh, you can’t, you know, they only recognize in hindsight, and those, uh, those are the moments that most people, I think, regret more than anything. Not because they lacked intelligence necessarily, but they lacked perspective, right? Listen, financial education is critical and we, we know that that’s the point of doing the show...
Transcribe →542: Why Investors CANNOT Ignore AI and Blockchain
Jan 2000:54:28Tap to summarizeThe Wealth Formula Podcast is one of the longest-running personal finance podcasts still standing. For more than a decade, I’ve shown up every single week to talk about investing, markets, and the forces shaping the economy. What’s interesting is how much my own thinking has evolved over that time. Early on, I was more rigid. I was—and still am—a real estate guy. But back then, I didn’t give much thought to ideas outside that lane. I was dogmatic, and I didn’t always challenge my own beliefs. Time has a way of doing that for you. I’ve now lived through multiple market cycles. I’ve watched the stock market melt up to valuations that felt absurd—and then keep going. I’ve seen gold go from flat for a decade to parabolic over a year. I’ve seen interest rates sit near zero for a decade and then snap higher at the fastest pace in modern history. And I’ve learned, sometimes the hard way, that diversification is about survival and that every asset class has its day. One lesson I learned that I am thinking a lot about these days is: ignore major technological shifts at your own peril. Back in 2014, I first started hearing people talk seriously about Bitcoin. At the time, I dismissed it. I listened to the critics, was convinced it was a scam, and didn’t take the time to truly understand it.  That was a mistake—not because everyone should have bought Bitcoin, but because I ignored a structural change happening right in front of me. Bitcoin went from a cypherpunk expression of freedom to the largest ETF owned by BlackRock. Today, the dominant story is artificial intelligence. And whether you love stocks, hate stocks, prefer real estate, or focus exclusively on cash flow, you cannot afford to ignore AI.  This isn’t a fad. It’s a general-purpose technology—on the scale of electricity, the internet, or the industrial revolution itself. That doesn’t mean it’s easy to invest in. It’s hard to look at headline names trading at massive valuations and feel good about buying them today.  But investing in AI isn’t about chasing a single company. It’s about understanding second- and third-order effects: energy demand, data centers, productivity gains, labor displacement, capital flows, and how blockchain and decentralized systems intersect with all of it. What experience has taught me is this: you don’t need to be first to invest—but you do need to be early in understanding. If you wait until something feels obvious, most of the opportunity is already gone. This week’s episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is focused squarely on AI and blockchain—what’s real, what’s noise, and where the long-term implications may lie. Listen to this episode. You’ll come away smarter. And years from now, you may look back and realize this was one of those moments where paying attention really mattered. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast. Coming to you from Montecito, California. Today we wanna start with a reminder. We are in a new year and we are already doing deals, uh, through the Wealth Formula Accredit Investor Club. You can go and sign up for that for free. Uh, wealth formula.com just hit investor club and you just get on there and, and you’ll get onboarded. And from there, all you gotta do is wait for deal flow and webinars coming to your inbox. And, um, you know, if nothing else, you learn something. So go check it out. Uh, go to. Wealth formula.com and sign up for Investor Club now onto today’s show. Uh, the, it is interesting. I don’t know if you are aware it’s a listener, but we are, wealth Formula is, uh, probably I would say one of the, certainly in the one of the top longest running personal finance podcasts still. Standing. Uh, I’ve been around, well, I think the first episode was on like 2014, so it was a long time, but in earnest, you know, at least for over a decade. And, you know, during that time, I’ve shown up every week, every single week. Don’t Ms. Weeks, but none, none. Isn’t that incredible? I’ve shown up, uh, talked about investing and talked about very way markets are working, forces, shaping the economy, all that kind of stuff. But you know, as you can imagine, as a. As a younger individual versus, um, my crusty self. Now, you know, a lot of my own thinking has evolved over that time, you know, back then. And I, you know, I think this appealed to some people, but, um, you know, I was really dogmatic. I’m a real estate guy, right? And I still am a real estate guy, but back then I wouldn’t give anything else the time of day to even think about, you know, and, and, uh, I, I, you know. I was dogmatic and didn’t always challenge my own belief systems. Um, I’m different now, right? I’ve softened And time is a way of, of changing all of that dogmatic stuff for you. You know, I’ve lived through multiple market cycles. I’ve watched, well, I’ve watched the stock market, which I, which I always maligned, you know, melt up to valuations. Uh, that felt absurd. And then keep going higher. I’ve seen gold, which was kind of ridiculous for the longest time. I watched it for like a decade, just pretty much flat, and then it goes parabolic. Over the last year, I’ve seen interest rates sit near zero for a decade and then snap higher. Uh, not even as time, just launch higher at the fastest space in modern history. And I’ve learned sometimes I guess, the hard way that diversification is about survival and that every class, every asset class has its day. Just like every dog has its day. And um, you know, one other lesson that I learned that I’m thinking a lot about these days is ignore major technological shifts at your own peril. So what am I talking about? Well. It’s kind of a, it is a technological shift, whether you think it about not, but Bitcoin. Okay. Back in 2014, I first started hearing people talk seriously about Bitcoin, and at that time I dismissed it. I was, uh, I was listening to critics beater Schiff that constantly called it a scam, said it was going to zero and so on. I didn’t, I didn’t take the time to truly understand it, to try to understand it the way I understand it now, that makes me a believer in Bitcoin. That, of course was a big mistake, not because, you know, everyone should have bought Bitcoin and, uh, back then, well, they, you know, would’ve been nice if they did, but because fundamentally I ignored something that was a structural change happening right in front of me. And since then, Bitcoin went from a cipher punk expression of freedom to the large CTF owned by BlackRock today. The dominant story is actually artificial intelligence. Now, whether you love stocks, hate stocks, prefer real estate focused exclusively on cab, whatever, you cannot afford to ignore ai. It’s not a fad. It’s a general purpose technology and a technology shift, and the scale of electricity. The internet bigger than the internet, bigger than the industrial revolution. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s easy to invest in. I mean, I’m gonna go invest in AI and make a bunch of money because I mean, what does that even mean? It’s hard to look at headline names, trading at massive valuations like Nvidia and all that right now, and saying, oh, I’m gonna go buy that. Who knows? That’s gonna work out. When I talk about investing in AI isn’t really just investing in stocks or any individual company or data centers or whatever. It’s about understanding. The second and third order effects, energy demand. You know, as I mentioned, data centers, productivity gains, labor displacement, capital flows, and how blockchain and decentralized systems intersect with all of that. It is very, very complicated. Um, but it’s really important to start to try to understand, you know, an experience that stop me is this. You don’t need to be the first to invest, but you do need to be early in understanding. If you wait until something feels obvious, usually the opportunity’s gone by then. And you know, the thing about AI is even if you think it’s obvious now. The reality is that most people haven’t really caught on. Maybe they played with chat GPT, but I don’t think they’re understanding what this whole, you know, this thing is gonna do to our world. Um, anyway, so that is what this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast, uh, is about. It’s about AI and also, um, a little bit about, you know, bitcoin and blockchain and that kind of thing. Um, we’re gonna talk about what’s noise, uh, you know, where the long, what the long-term, uh, implications are all of this stuff. This is a show that, uh, I really enjoy doing really, really good stuff. Um, so make sure you listen in. We’ll have that interview for you right after these messages. Wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest. On that money, even though you’...
Transcribe →541: Failure, Success, and the Current Economy with Russell Gray
Jan 1300:45:19Tap to summarizeWe all love winners. We love hearing about the big wins and the perfect track records. It feels good. It feels safe. It instills us with a sense of trust. But I’ve been in business long enough to know that virtually all individuals who are long-term winners have had profound moments of failure from which they learned invaluable lessons. Those are the people I really want to hear from. They have the kind of knowledge we all need as we navigate through life. It’s called wisdom. Surgeons have a saying: “If you’ve never had a complication, you haven’t done enough surgery.” In my surgeon days, I had a handful of complications. Let me tell you—they are no fun. You stay up at night replaying things in your mind, trying to figure out how you could have done things differently—how you could have had a better outcome. Even when unavoidable, those complications teach you something you’ll never get from textbooks. It’s been no different for me when it comes to business and investing. But I take comfort in knowing that even the greatest investors of all time had their moments of failure and rose from the ashes stronger and wiser. Warren Buffett. Ray Dalio. Every big winner has a story of failure. And while it may be cliché to say that we learn best from mistakes, I truly believe it. The good news is that those mistakes don’t have to be our own. Learning from other people’s mistakes can be just as effective. This week’s episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is with Russell Gray—a guy many of you already know from his podcasting and radio career. Russ lived through 2008 up close. He took a beating, and he talks openly about what went wrong. But that period also changed the way he sees the world—in a good way. It changed how he thinks about risk, leverage, and what actually matters when things stop going up. That mindset is a big reason he’s been successful since then. It’s a conversation worth your time. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. If you let the debt run, at some point you fall into a debt trap where the interest on the outstanding debt consumes all of the available discretionary income, and then you’re borrowing just to service the debt. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you there’s website associated with this. Podcast called wealthformula.com. It’s where you will go if you would like to, uh, become more, uh, ingrained with the community, including getting on some of our lists such as the Accredit Investor Club. Of course, it is a new year and there are new deal flows coming through. Lots of opportunities that you won’t see anywhere else if you are a, an accredit investor, which means you. Make at least $200,000 per year for the last couple years with a reasonable expectation of doing so in the future. That’s 300,000 if you’re filing jointly or you have a million dollars of net worth outside of your personal residence. If you, uh, meet those criteria, you are an accredited investor. Congratulations. You don’t have to apply for anything, whatever, but you do need to go to wealthformula.com. Sign up for the Accredited Investor Club, get onboarded. And all you do at that point is look at deal flow, and if nothing else, you’ll learn something. So check it out. And who doesn’t want to be part of a club? Now let’s talk, uh, a little bit about today’s show. You know, um, we all love winners, right? We love hearing about big wins, the perfect track record. It feels good. It feels safe, gives us a sense of trust. But the thing is, I’ve been in business long enough to know that virtually all individuals who are, what you would call long-term winners, have had profound moments of failure from which they learned, um, invaluable lessons. So those are the people that I really like to hear from. You know, they have the kind of knowledge we all need that as we navigate through all of life, and it’s called wisdom. Um, surgeons, as you know, I’m an ex surgeon. Have a saying, if you’ve never had a complication, you haven’t done enough surgery. Uh, in my surgery days, I certainly, you know, had a handful of complications just like anyone else who did a lot of surgery. And, and lemme tell you, there, there are no fun, right? So you stay up at night replying things in your mind, trying to figure out how you could have done things differently, how you could have had a better outcome. And sometimes you realize that those mistakes were unavoidable, but. You still learn something from them. And in these cases, you always learn something that you’re not gonna get from the textbooks, just from reading something. And you know what, it’s been no different for me when it comes to business and, and investing, but I, I take comfort in the fact, uh, that even the greatest investors of all time had their moments of failure and arose from the ashes stronger and wiser. All you have to do is look up stories of Warren Buffet and Ray Dalio. And Ray Dalio basically lost everything at one point, uh, because he, you know, he had a macro prediction that went completely south. But listen, uh, the, the point I’m trying to make here is that every big winner, every big winner I know of as a story of failure. And while it may be cliche to say, you know what we learned best from our mistakes, I, I truly believe that. But the good news is that those mistakes don’t have to be our own, right? So you can learn from other people’s mistakes as well, and that can be just as effective. Uh, so this week’s episode of Well, formula Podcast is featuring a guy that you may know. His name is Russell Gray. Russ, uh, has been around a long time, uh, in the podcasting world. And radio. You know, he talks a lot. He’s talked many times to me at least about living through 2008. And you know what that was like, the beating he took and, you know, what went wrong? Uh, you know, it’s, it’s something that he talks about because, you know, he’s a successful guy and that period in time changed. You know, the way he sees the world, the way in which he behaves in that world. How he thinks about things like risk and leverage and you know, what actually matters when things stop going up. Uh, it’s a mindset thing and it’s important. Um, and we also obviously talk about other things as well, such as, uh, Russ’s current take on the economy. Uh, so anyway, it’s a, a good conversation and it’s one that you’re gonna wanna listen to, and we’ll have that for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbo charge your investments. Visit www.wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to Show Everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Russell Gray. He’s a second generation financial strategist and, uh, you may know him from being a, the former co-host of the Real Estate Guy Radio Show, which is one of the longest running, uh, uh, radio shows of its time, uh, in the United States. He’s, he’s a founder of. Raising Capitalist project, which is an initiative focused on helping aspiring investors and entrepreneurs how to better understand how wealth is actually created and how uh, economic systems really work. Uh, he’s best known for his emphasis on real assets, cash flow, economic cycles, and preserving wealth and what he views as an increasingly fragile financial system. Welcome, Ross. How are you? Good buck, happy to be here. And, uh, proud of your success on your show. I remember way back at the beginning you were like, Hey, I wanna start a podcast. Yeah. Yep. You’ve done a great job. Yeah, it was an idea. I was like, here’s the idea. Start a podcast, build a community, all that kind of stuff. But it’s interesting. Uh, well, and let’s talk about what’s going on now. You’ve spent decades teaching people about, you know, real assets and cash flow. But lately your writings feel more focused on systems and and macro forces. So what’s changed? Has something finally become too big to ignore? Well, I think there’s two things you know personally, uh, most people who have heard of me or followed me know that 2008 wasn’t kind to me. I was in the mortgage business. I was very leveraged into real estate all over the place. Had my businesses for cash flow, had the real estate for equity growth. Believed that real estate was hyper resilient and gonna be the beneficiary of inflati...
Transcribe →540: Outlook and Predictions for 2026
Jan 700:43:25Tap to summarizeFirst off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week’s episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don’t seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what’s actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn’t meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It’s simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you’re deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you’ve felt like the economy and the markets aren’t really speaking the same language right now, I think you’ll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, e...
Transcribe →539: Best of 2025 Holiday Special
Dec 2900:27:47Tap to summarizeIt’s been another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics. As we look ahead to 2026… well, who really knows what’s coming? I’ll be sharing my own take—and making a few predictions—in an upcoming episode. What’s hard to ignore is just how unusual this moment in history is. We’re coming off COVID. We went through a rapid rise in interest rates, and now a pullback. Tariffs are back in the conversation. There are a lot of moving parts, and as usual, the consensus hasn’t exactly nailed it. Almost every expert was convinced tariffs would push inflation higher. I expected at least a temporary bump—some transient inflation while markets adjusted. Then the CPI report came out at 2.7%. That’s a lot closer to the Fed’s 2% target, and nearly half a percentage point lower than expectations. Clearly, something else is going on. At the same time, GDP came in at around 4.3% growth. That’s real strength. Inflation is coming down, growth is strong, and while the labor market is still a little murky, there’s no question there’s underlying momentum in the system. Investors haven’t quite felt it yet. It’s been a sticky environment. But my sense is that we’re getting closer to a shift—more liquidity, more money in the system, and markets that may start moving meaningfully again. Of course, we’ll see how it all plays out. For this episode, my producer Phil pulled together some of the highlights from the show in 2025—a look back at the conversations and ideas that stood out in a year when the data kept surprising just about everyone. I hope you enjoy it. And again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with D Wealth Formula Podcast, coming to you from Montecito, California and, uh, want to wish you, first of all, a happy holidays. Merry Christmas, happy new Year, all that. And, uh, yeah, it’s been, uh, it’s been another, uh, another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics is what, what we talk about on the show. And as we look forward to 2026, gosh, who knows what’s gonna happen, right? Uh, well I’ll give you my take in, uh, show coming up where I’m gonna make some predictions. However, you know, it’s just, it, it, it’s just such an unusual time in, in history. Um, as we kind of look at. Coming off of COVID and having those high interest rates and then coming, uh, coming down and then having Trump elected and now the tariffs and well, gosh, who knows? Right? I mean, just for example, you know, almost every expert was pretty much guaranteeing that inflation would go up because of the tariffs. I mean, even if it was transient, which frankly I thought it was gonna be transient, meaning that there was gonna be a bump in inflation. For a period of time until there was a readjustment after tariffs. Well, TPI comes up most recent CPI is actually 2.7. You know, that’s much closer to the fed target of 2%. And, um, 2.7 was, you know, I think, uh, almost a half, half percentage point less than the expected, uh, CPI, uh, report. So that, that’s obviously something else is going on there. And then. GDP numbers came out and we had a four handle. It was like 4.3, I believe, GDP. So we’ve got incredible growth. We’ve got decreasing inflation. The labor market is still, I know, a little unclear, but it seems like there’s a lot of strength in this market. Of course, it’s really sticky investors. We haven’t quite felt that strength yet, but I do think you need to start anticipating. That markets are gonna come back pretty heavy, uh, with increased liquidity, uh, and a lot of money in the system. But we shall see, uh, this show. What we’re gonna do here is, uh, my, uh, producer Phil put this together, but it’s basically some of the highlights of, uh, the show in, in 2025. So hopefully you enjoy it. Uh, and again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, new Year. And we’ll be back right after these messages. Wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbocharge your investments. Visit wealth formula banking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. How do you approach the process of identifying stocks that are maybe best suited for consis consistent cash flow? Or do you just pick the stocks that you like and, and create the cash flow? Or are, you know, fundamental metrics that maybe you prioritize? Yeah, the, the, the first thing to determine. I think real estate investors understand this is if I were to invest in real estate, I’m gonna determine whether I’m gonna be a flipper, or I’m gonna try and buy low forced depreciation, sell high. Or if I’m gonna be a cashflow investor where I might invest in syndication, or I am, I’m gonna have tenants in property management. And the same is true with stocks. Most people start off by thinking about price rather than cash flow. They think about buy low, sell high, like a house slipper, and that’s, that’s less tenable in stocks because in real estate, if I buy low and sell high, I can do things to force appreciation. I can renovate, I can get new management, I can put in new appliances. I, there’s things I can do to force appreciation. But once a person buys a stock, there’s absolutely nothing you can do to make the stock price go up. But if you take a a, if you think of it like a real estate investor. You think about it like owning a business where the priority, as you mentioned these metrics, the priority is, Hey, what kind of cashflow will this produce be in terms of dividends and in my case, option premiums. And so some of the key metrics is, you know, if I, I’m basically buying a financial statement, same as real estate. You know, I, I, I, it is just a little different numbers in real estate. I wanna know what the net operating income is. In stocks, I might wanna know what the EBITDA is ’cause they’re essentially looking at the same types of things in real estate. I wanna know what the cap rate is in stocks. I wanna know what the PE ratio is, which is just the same number inverted. They just put the price on the top instead of the bottom. To me, I don’t see a difference between real estate and stocks, uh, in that they’re both a business or they charge someone for a good or a service. And there’s either cashflow there at the end of it or not. If people take a cash flow approach, they can begin to build on their passive income. And that contributes to that blueprint we mentioned earlier to get ’em outta the route race. So if you take a Warren Buffet approach, the most important number in that business is operational cash flow or earnings. Meaning does what they do, their operation. You know, you walk in there, a nice operation you got going here, you know, trucks are moving and you know, products are being built and shipped and, and nice operation. If they’re earning money, that means that’s the life flood of the business. That means it’s got a good moat. That means it’s pretty protected and that allows them to do two things for me. Number one is a dividend, which is exactly the same thing as a distribution in real estate. Uh, there is no difference, uh, in a syndication. I have a whole bunch of investors I’ve joined with where you have a share of this project and when the earnings come out, they distribute the, the distributions among the share shareholders. Same is true with stocks. They take the earnings, uh, we call it a payout ratio, and they take a, a, a significant amount of that money and they pay it in a dividend, same as a distribution. But what I do that’s a little bit unique buck is, uh, is I also have the options market on my side. Where I can use options to control risk, uh, to get guarantees where I can buy and sell, but even more importantly, I can offer, uh, and get paid for making promises to people. This is very much a Warren Buffet deal where it, it brings a significant increase to my monthly cash flow beyond the dividend, up to three, two and three times. Uh, the amount of money, two to 300% more cash flow. By being involved in the options market and that’s, that’s a nice secret sauce. The yield max Tesla option income, ETF, which is TSLY. And basically what it does is. Is it just does a series of longs and shorts and, and then generates what looks like to be kind of a, a ridiculous amount of, uh, dividend, uh, per, per month. So what are we missing here? What, what’s, well, you’re, you’re basically hiring those guys to mow your grass....
Transcribe →538: Is Gold Still a Buy?
Dec 2300:40:47Tap to summarizeFor years, gold was the asset nobody wanted to talk about. It sat there quietly while stocks and real estate continued to rip. Gold was for pessimists. For doomsayers and perma-bears.And then suddenly… gold didn’t just wake up. It launched. As of mid-December 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,300–$4,400 an ounce, depending on the market, marking a gain of roughly 60% over the past year and pushing decisively into record territory. The obvious question is: why now? The short answer is that gold isn’t reacting to one thing. It’s responding to a stacking of pressures that have been quietly building for years and are now impossible to ignore.Start with central banks. For the better part of the last decade, central banks were net sellers or indifferent holders of gold. That changed dramatically after 2022. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have been buying gold at more than double the pace of the pre-COVID years, and 2025 continues that trend, with hundreds of tonnes added to reserves year-to-date. These aren’t hedge funds chasing momentum. These are monetary authorities making deliberate, strategic decisions about what they trust to hold value. Why would central banks suddenly want more gold? Because geopolitics has re-entered the chat. We now live in a world where reserves can be frozen, payment systems can be weaponized, and “risk-free” assets depend heavily on political alignment. The World Bank has been explicit that rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty are key drivers of gold’s surge this year. When trust in the global order erodes, gold benefits. At the same time, the U.S. dollar devaluation thesis is no longer fringe thinking. It is reality.Gold is priced in dollars, and when real yields fall and the dollar weakens, gold historically performs well. That dynamic is playing out again. Reuters has repeatedly pointed to a softer dollar and declining Treasury yields as near-term tailwinds for gold’s rally . Bank of America’s research echoes this relationship, emphasizing gold’s inverse correlation to the dollar and the growing desire among nations to diversify away from dollar-centric reserves . In other words, gold isn’t just going up because people are scared. It’s going up because confidence in fiat discipline is eroding, slowly but persistently. So…Is gold still a buy or did we miss it? The truth is, both answers can be correct. Yes, gold is expensive relative to where it was a year ago. You don’t go up 60% without pulling future returns forward. But what makes this cycle different is that many of the buyers driving demand are price-insensitive. Central banks don’t care if gold is up 20% or down 10% in a quarter. They care about long-term reserve integrity. That’s why major institutions aren’t dismissing the move as a blow-off. Goldman Sachs has cited sustained central-bank demand and the potential for further ETF inflows as supportive of higher prices. J.P. Morgan continues to frame gold as a beneficiary of geopolitical instability and monetary uncertainty, and Bank of America is projecting prices as high as $5,000 an ounce into 2026. Of course, nothing goes up in a straight line. A shift toward tighter monetary policy or a sudden easing of global tensions could cool enthusiasm. Understand though, that gold’s breakout isn’t just about gold. There is a larger message that should be taken away from all of this. Hard money has come back into favor. Gold is the original hard asset. It’s scarce, politically neutral, and has thousands of years of monetary credibility. But it’s also heavy, difficult to move, and awkward in a digital world. Bitcoin exists on the same philosophical axis. Both gold and Bitcoin are reactions to the same problem: expanding debt, monetary dilution, and declining confidence in centralized control. Gold is the conservative expression of that view. Bitcoin is the aggressive one. Today, Bitcoin trades around $86,000, still volatile, still controversial, still misunderstood. But if gold’s surge is signaling a regime shift toward hard assets, then Bitcoin may simply be earlier in that adoption curve. In other words, gold may be leading the parade. And if history is any guide, when institutions start moving into the oldest form of sound money, they eventually begin exploring the newest. That’s the signal worth paying attention to. So this week, I interview Dana Samuelson, an old friend of the show and an expert in everything gold and hard money. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Gold isn’t reacting to one thing, it’s actually responding to a stacking, uh, pressures, uh, that have been quietly building for years and, and really right now are impossible to ignore. Welcome, everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast coming to you. From Montecito, California and today. Uh, before we begin, just a quick reminder. Uh, there is a, uh, website associated with this podcast called wealth formula.com. And, uh, that’s where you go to get deeply more deeply integrated into this community, including our accredited investor club, AKA investor club for you to join. And, uh, once you get onboarded, all you do is you, you have an opportunity to see private deal flow, uh, that, uh, is not available to the general public. If you are an accredited investor, meaning that you have, uh, make $200,000 per year or $300,000 per year, uh, for the last two years with the reasonable expectation of continuing to do so, or you have a million dollars outside of your personal residence, a net worth, then you are an accredited investor and. All you need to do is sign up and join the club. Just go to wealth formula.com and sign up and get onboarded. Now, let’s talk a little bit about something that has been extraordinary this year. It’s gold. You know, for years, gold was the asset that nobody wanted to talk about. I mean, it sat there quietly. Well, stocks and real estate continue to rip. Um. Gold really is really, you know, was for the pessimists. For the doomsayers and the perma bears. I mean, I, I gotta tell you, I kind of am was one of those people, right? And then suddenly gold didn’t just wake up. It, it totally launched, exploded in his mid-December 2025. Spot Gold is trading around, I know, 4300, 4400 an ounce, depending on the market, gaining roughly 60% over the past year. Pushing decisively into record territory. Now the obvious question is why now? Well, the short answer is that gold isn’t reacting to one thing. It’s actually responding to a stacking, uh, pressures, uh, that have been quietly building for years and, and really right now are impossible to ignore. And this is an interesting shift because. The thing is that in the old days, and I’m even talking about 15, 20 years ago, uh, you would look at gold as something that didn’t really go up when the stock market was doing well, right? It was kind of a reaction. It was a fear-based thing. It still is sort of a fear-based thing, but now it’s not just fear of, you know, whether the stock market’s gonna crash. It’s fear of geopolitical concerns. That’s where the central banks come in, right? So for the better part of the last decade, central banks were net sellers. Or really indifferent of holders of, of gold, and that changed dramatically after 2022. So according to World Gold Council, central banks have been buying gold at more than double the pace of the pre COVID years. And 2025 continued that trend with hundreds of tons, uh, added to reserves year to date Now. These are central banks. They’re not hedge funds chasing momentum, right? They’re monetary authorities and they’re making deliberate strategic decisions about what they trust to hold value. And why would central banks suddenly want more gold? Well, because again, geopolitics has reentered that chat. We live in a world now where reserves can be frozen, right? Payment systems can be weaponized. Risk-free assets depend heavily on political alignment. Now of course, I’m talking about the United States when I’m mentioning all those things, right? Uh, how we can kind of just freeze assets of Russia and that kind of thing. I’m not, uh, pro-Russia, I’m just pointing out the fact that. Countries don’t like it when you freeze their assets. Right? The World Bank, uh, has been explicit that rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty are the key drivers of gold surges this year. And when trust in the global Ory roads, of course that is now when gold benefits and at the same time, the US dollar devaluation thesis is no longer just kind of fringe thinking. It’s reality. No one, no one even bothers to pretend that that’s not happening. So gold is, uh, of course, priced in dollars and when real yields fall, uh, and the dollar weakens gold historically performs well so that that dynamic is playing out again as well. In fact, Reuters has repeatedly pointed to a softer dollar and declining treasury yields as near term tailwinds for Gold’s Rally Bank of America. Uh, their research shows, uh, this relationship emphasizing gold’s inverse correlation to the dollar and the growing desire among nations to diversify away from the dollar centric reserves. In other words, gold isn’t just going up because people are scared. It’s going up because confidence in the fiat discipline is eroding altogether slowly. Persistently. So the question is, is go...
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