Californians Vote With New Map

Summary

Podcast Summary: What A Day – "Californians Vote With New Map"
Date: June 2, 2026
Host: Erin Ryan (in for Jane Coaston)
Guest: Marisa Lagos, Political Correspondent at KQED and Co-Host of Political Breakdown

---

Overview

This episode dives deeply into California’s unusual and highly competitive 2026 primary elections, focusing on a crowded gubernatorial race, dramatic shifts due to redistricting, issues around candidate social media strategies, and the headline-making LA mayoral contest. Guest Marisa Lagos offers expert analysis, historical perspective, and colorful commentary on the candidates, campaign tactics, and what to watch as votes are counted.

---

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why This Is a Weird Year in California Politics

[01:20-03:00]

• Marisa Lagos says this election is among the “weirdest” she has seen, recalling the 2003 Gray Davis recall as a parallel.
• The ballot features around 60 candidates—including one who changed his name to Barack Obama.
• More notable for high-profile figures not running (Kamala Harris, Rob Bonta, Alex Padilla) than those who are.
• Front-runners have dramatically changed; e.g., Javier Becerra surged from 5% to mid-20s in the polls.
• “Predictions are useless. It’s been a weird one and I think it’s going to continue to be weird.” – Marisa Lagos [02:45]

2. Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Mechanics & Main Candidates

[03:00-05:51]

• California’s “jungle primary” advances the top two vote-getters, regardless of party—raises risk of intra-party races.
• Early worries that two Republicans might advance are now considered remote.
• Top Candidates:
  • Javier Becerra (D): Establishment pick, former HHS Secretary, has labor/business support.
  • Tom Steyer (D): Billionaire progressive insurgent; self-funded with over $213M.
    • “Ironic to be a billionaire and a progressive insurgent, but I think that’s really where he’s at.” – Marisa Lagos [04:09]
  • Steve Hilton (R): Former Fox News personality and UK political aide, has Trump’s endorsement. More traditional Republican platform (low taxes, anti-regulation) but benefits from MAGA connections.
  • The race could see any combination of these three in the runoff.
• Memorable quote: "Like any, any combination of those three could end up in a runoff, I think at this point." – Marisa Lagos [02:58]

3. Role of Social Media and Influencers

[05:51-07:33]

• Tom Steyer’s massive spending extends to hiring online influencers.
• Marisa highlights uncertainty about the real impact of such spending:
  • “It’s one arrow in a very large quiver that Steyer built with those millions of dollars.” [06:57]
  • A recent UC Berkeley poll shows voters under 30 get much of their election info from social media, suggesting potential impact.
  • Accusations fly—Steyer claims Becerra has bot support; Becerra’s team claims grassroots excitement.
  • The LA mayor's race, in contrast, is far wilder on social media, with AI-generated content rampant.

4. The Wild LA Mayor’s Race

[07:33-09:38]

• LA’s size (10 million in county) means its mayoral race has outsize state/national significance.
• Front-runners:
  • Karen Bass (D, incumbent): Weakened by 2025 LA fires.
  • Nithya Raman (Progressive): Late entry, former council ally turned challenger.
  • Spencer Pratt (Republican): Reality TV star best known for The Hills, lost his home in the Palisades fire, now running an anti-incumbency campaign with considerable out-of-state support and a Trump nod.
• “Kind of the last person you would have expected to run for mayor.” – Marisa Lagos on Pratt [08:34]
• Skepticism persists that a Republican can win, even in a nonpartisan race, given LA’s strongly Democratic electorate.

5. Congressional Races & Redistricting

[09:38-11:49]

• California’s early adoption of new maps has shifted the field: Five previously competitive seats now lean blue.
• Creates party-on-party contests:
  • Orange County: GOP Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert drawn together—nasty, Trump-credibility focused race.
    • Notable attack: Young Kim wouldn’t let her daughters date Donald Trump—used to question her “Trumpiness”.
  • Central Valley: Two strong Democrats—Randy Villegas (progressive, Bernie Sanders’ backing) vs. Yasmeet Baines (moderate)—vying to oust incumbent Republican David Valadao, who has repeatedly survived despite demographics.
    • “I like to call it Lucy and the football.” – Marisa Lagos [11:44]

6. When to Expect Results

[11:49-12:56]

• California counts late-arriving mail ballots, so final tallies for tight races (Governor, LA Mayor, certain House seats) may take days or weeks.
• Early returns are likely to skew Republican, as Democrats have held ballots longer.
• “I would say get your popcorn. It could be a few days and a bit of a long haul here.” – Marisa Lagos [12:51]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:34] “It's so weird. Oh, my gosh…we have like 60 folks on the ballot, one of whom changed his name to be Barack Obama.” – Marisa Lagos
• [02:45] “Predictions are useless. It's been a weird one and I think it's going to continue to be weird.”
• [04:09] “Ironic to be a billionaire and a progressive insurgent, but I think that's really where he's at.” – on Tom Steyer
• [06:57] “It’s one arrow in a very large quiver that Steyer built with those millions of dollars.”
• [08:34] “Kind of the last person you would have expected to run for mayor.” – On Spencer Pratt
• [11:44] “I like to call it Lucy and the football.” – On Democrats failing to flip CA-21
• [12:51] “I would say get your popcorn. It could be a few days and a bit of a long haul here.”

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:02] Introduction and framing the scope of California’s election
• [01:18] Marisa Lagos joins and sets the historical context for this year’s “weird” cycle
• [03:00] Jungle primary explained and the governor’s race top three detailed
• [05:51] Social media’s growing influence and Steyer’s strategy
• [07:33] LA Mayor’s race analysis and candidate backgrounds
• [09:38] Congressional races and effects of new district maps
• [11:49] Expectation-setting for election night results

---

Closing Thoughts

This episode offers a fast-paced, insightful guide to California’s pivotal primary, deftly blending policy analysis, campaign drama, and insider color commentary. Whether you’re a politics watcher or just want to know why “Barack Obama” is on a state ballot, Erin Ryan and Marisa Lagos deliver authoritative coverage with wit and candor. With so many variables still at play, listeners are left with the message to stay tuned—this primary is far from predictable.

Transcript

[A]

It's Tuesday, June 2nd. I'm Erin Ryan in for Jane Coston. And this is what a day. The show that when it must be the bearer of bad news, coats it with some peanut butter and cheese. So the news goes down easier. On today's show, a federal judge shreds President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's ban on trans troops. Happy pride, boys. We've also got another setback in the Trump administration's so far feudal attempts to wrap up the war they started with Iran. We've almost got a peace treaty. Is to the Trump administration what full self driving is just around the corner is to Elon Musk. But before we get to all that, California politics are often treated as an afterthought to the rest of the national media. While California is often seen as a Democratic paradise with a deep bench, this year, a combination of dangerously wacky candidates and own goal scandals have propelled the Golden State to national front pages. Today's primary will winnow down crowded fields across several important races. So we talked to journalist Marisa Lagos. She's a political correspondent at KQED and co hosts its podcast Political Breakdown. And she can help answer the question, what the hell is going on with the California governor's race right now? Marisa, welcome to what a day.

[B]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

All right, let's just get right into it. I've seen a lot of commentary that this has been a weird election year in California. As a seasoned veteran of covering California politics from your perspective, is it that weird?

[B]

It's so weird. Oh, my gosh. I mean, I think my first season covering California politics was the recall of Gray Davis and the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger. And this feels like on par with that, down to the fact that we have like 60 folks on the ballot, one of whom who changed his name to be Barack Obama.

[A]

Right. Like Barack Obama's on the ballot in California.

[B]

Obama's on the ballot in California. I checked though he did change it back in 2013. So if this was the purpose, it was a long game. No, but back to your question. It just is. It is a unsettled year. It's been more sort of marked by who didn't run than who did. There was Kamala Harris passing on this, Rob Bonta, the Attorney General, U.S. senator Alex Padilla. Then we had Eric Swalwell, the representative, sort of gaining momentum. He flames out with these sexual misconduct allegations. It's. And then one of the front runners, Javier Becerra, is now, you know, polling in the mid-20s he was at 5% back in April, so predictions are useless. It's been a weird one and I think it's going to continue to be weird. Honestly, I don't know that we'll have an answer this week. And I think that it could be any sort of combination of the top three folks. Becerra, Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton. Like any, any combination of those three could end up in a runoff, I think at this point.

[A]

Well, let's talk a little bit about how we choose who gets to be in the runoff. In California, they use something called the jungle primary, which basically means the top two candidates end up on the November ballot regardless of their party. And there has been some buzz in recent months that two Republicans could take those spots in the governor's race due to how crowded the Democratic field was. That doesn't seem like a possibility now going into the primary today. Who are the front runners for the governor's race? You mentioned them a little bit, but go a little bit more into them, who they are and who is attracted to voting for them.

[B]

Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think, yes, to dispense with that, it is almost an impossibility at this point that we could have two Republicans. We have seen Javier Becerra. You know, he served as Health and Human Services Secretary under Joe Biden. He's a former state attorney General here in California. He also represented Los Angeles in Congress. He's sort of like the establishment Democratic candidate. You know, after Swalwell's flameout and after all the uncertainty, Democrats really seem to sort sort of coalesce, or at least some of them around him, including a lot of the more sort of like institutional organizations, some labor groups, some business groups. I think he is seen as a sort of safe bet, the insurgent here is Tom Steyer. Ironic to be a billionaire and a progressive insurgent, but I think that's really where he's at. Guy has spent over $213 million of his own money on this race. You may remember him from great hits like running unsuccessfully in 2020 for president. He also helped bankroll a lot of more progressive ballot measures here in recent decades. So he's sort of running as an anti oligarch billionaire. It's strange and I think it's given him a lot of things to answer for. There's a lot of progressives that are kind of skeptical of him. But when you sort of look at Becerra through what, you know, tough stire's, people are painting him as the corporate Democrat. It gives the Sort of left wing of the party. A little bit of pause here. And we've seen Steyer be able to capitalize on that. And then you have Steve Hilton, former Fox News personality, businessman, former prime minister, aide in the UK he's British, which every time he comes on TV, my 10 year old is like, why is a British guy running? But he, you know, he did get the endorsement of President Trump. That's really helped him sort of consolidate GOP support. He's not the Trumpiest guy. He's actually more intellectual and sort of traditional Republican, I would say, low taxes, you know, anti regulation, promising to shrink government. But he has benefited from Trump's endorsement and a lot of connections kind of in Magaland. And so he has really emerged as the alternative to a Democrat in this race. Hmm.

[A]

Okay. Well, another notable thing about this year is how candidates are using social media. Democratic candidate and billionaire Tom Steyer has spent a lot of money on influencers to promote himself. From where you're standing, is all this money being funneled to influencers making a difference in his campaign?

[B]

You know, I think we're gonna have to see. I mean, certainly the money he's spent have helped him grow his share, you know, if polls are to believe from, you know, single digits up into the 20s. But a lot of the fights we're seeing, I mean, we're also seeing accusation on Steyer's side that Becerra's got a bunch of bots on social media who helped him kind of like garner this, you know, excitement after the Swalwell dropout. I don't think voters care. I mean, what do voters care about? Like, they want to know who these people are. I think that there's a lot of skepticism around sort of online influencers to begin with. I will note UC Berkeley just put out a poll that was really interesting and showed, not surprisingly, but a lot of people under the age of 30 are getting a lot of their information on this selection from places like social media. So could it make a difference? Absolutely. I think it's one arrow in a very large quiver that Steyer built with those millions of dollars. And it does seem like there was some sort of grassroots excitement around Becerra. But I think, you know, look forward six months, there will be postmortems for both of these campaigns. And I think it'll be interesting to see if those are kind of the things that move the needle or not. But not quite as much craziness on social media, I'll say. As we've seen, the LA Mayor's race where AI seems to be a feature, not a bug of that election.

[A]

Yeah, let's talk about, let's talk about the LA Mayor's race. I know you know LA Mayor, it's a city, but there are 10 million people in LA county. That would make it bigger than 40 states I believe. So we always have at least a few colorful characters on the LA local ballot, but they're usually not at the top of the pack. And if they're running for mayor, they're usually like driving around in a convertible with a sign, you know what I mean? They're, they're fun, they're local color, but this year is a little bit different. Can you walk us through who is at the top of the pack for LA Mayor?

[B]

Yeah, I mean if polls are to believed again, we have a sort of three way tie. Also in that race. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, a longtime LA politician, served in both the state legislature and in Congress, really came out of the horrific 2025 LA fires very weakened and I think that's why we both. Nithya Raman, a former kind of ally of hers on the city Council, a progressive politician, announced this spring that she was gonna jump in with a last minute bid for this office. And then the dark horse here, Spencer Pratt, you might remember him from the hills, since we're around the same age, you know, he's a reality TV star, has made his money outside of TV selling crystals and things like that. Like kind of the last person you would have expected to run for mayor, he lost his house in the Palisades fire and has essentially built a campaign around that and really just like on an anti incumbency platform. And we've seen a lot of support coming from outside la, from outside California. For Pratt, President Trump weighed in saying he likes the guy. I'm sort of waiting to see how much like this shakeout, like how much of this is an online campaign, is it translating into real support? And then of course, if he can make it through Tuesday's primary, like could he actually mount a challenge in a city where Republicans are just so outnumbered by Democrats? It's a very difficult thing for somebody, even in a nonpartisan race to win, just given the demographics.

[A]

Okay, turning to Congress, California was the first blue state to respond to the President's mid decade redistricting push. How have California's new maps changed the playing field for candidates in the midterms for Congress?

[B]

Yeah, I mean broadly there was about five seats that they shored up and I think we're expecting Most of those to turn blue. I think what's most interesting is you're seeing that this has created some like party on party races in some of these areas. I'm thinking about an Orange county where two sitting members of Congress who are Republicans were drawn into the same district. Young Kim and Ken Calvert. That race has gotten nasty. There are ads about Calvert being in a car with a prostitute 20 years ago. Something about Young Kim saying she wouldn't let her daughters date Donald Trump. I mean, just really, really.

[A]

Wait, as a bad thing, are they like she wouldn't even let her daughters date Donald Trump? Like that?

[B]

Exactly. It's like you're not Trumpy enough. And it was funny because I think the appearance that came from was her saying, I love his policies, but I wouldn't let you know. So yeah, that one has devolved into like, who's the Trumpiest Trumpy of all. And then there's also a Central Valley race where you have the sitting Republican. David Valadao has just been such a thorn in Democrats side. They've only beat him once in the past couple decades in 2018. He just keeps winning even though there's more Democrats than Republicans. And in that race it's fascinating because you have Randy Villegas, a progressive former school board trustee and teacher who is running with like the support of Bernie Sanders organization, really carving out that left progressive lane. And then Yasmeet Baines, assembly member in the state assembly who's running more as a moderate. And again, just like this Dem on Dem race has gotten really vicious. They both really want to make it to this runoff. And I think it's an open question which one will be stronger in a district like that, which is like 70% Latino, very low income, and again has just eluded Democrats over and over and over again. I like to call it Lucy in the football.

[A]

All right, so you know, California's last day to vote is today. And given the rundown of how California tabulates its votes, how soon would it be reasonable to expect results? Can we just tune out on election night or are there things that we'll know right away?

[B]

Well, I'll be doing some podcast and live radio, so please tune in. But I will say it is unlikely we'll know everything on election night. I think the governor's race, very likely that vote count could, you know, drag on for days, maybe even weeks. I hate to say that, but it's possible. I think one note on that is like you could expect really strong Republican returns at the beginning because Democrats have been holding onto their ballots this cycle in California. So you kind of might see an over performance of Republicans at the beginning. So keep that in mind. But yeah, I think the governor's race, the mayor's race, some of these more closely contested congressional races, it could be at least several days, if not longer. Sometimes we say that and then everything just gets counted quickly so you never know. But I would say get your popcorn. It could be, could be a few days and a bit of a long haul here.

[A]

Three days worth of popcorn. Marisa, thank you so much for joining me and see you on the other side.

[B]

Thank you so much for having me.

[A]

That was my conversation with Marisa Lagos, co host of the KQED show and podcast Political Breakdown. We'll never spend a million dollars on crystals like LA mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt. And if you like that, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads what a Day is Brought to you by Zebiotics I have to tell you about this game changing product I use before a night out with drinks. It's called Pre Alcohol Zebiotics. Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's predict first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre Alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make Pre Alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. I recently went to a wedding and Zbiotics made its debut before I attended any wedding festivities. Every time I have Pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on going to a wedding brunch, for example, and not feeling and looking miserable. Look, I won't lie, I was a bit on the fence about Pre Alcohol initially. But then, while hanging out with every person I've known who's gotten married in the last several years, I gave it a shot. And believe me, it's the real deal. So I first gave Pre Alcohol a try at a Crooked media holiday party a few years ago. I drank it before my first drink and you wouldn't believe how on top of my game I felt the very next morning. Go to zbiotics.com wad to learn more and get 15% off your first order. When you use WAD at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with 100%. Zebiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember, head to zebiotics.com wad and use code WAD at checkout for 15% off. What a day is Brought to you by Nutrafol. You know that feeling when your ponytail starts feeling a little fuller? Or when you're heading out the door and realize you didn't even do that last mirror check to make sure everything's sitting right? Those small moments can start to add up and before you know it, you're just feeling like yourself again. Nutrafol supports hair health from within, helping you grow stronger, visibly thicker hair. So those that feeling when moments happen more and more often, Good hair days do more than we give them credit for. When your hair feels healthy, you show up differently. You're more confident, more relaxed. You're not constantly checking mirrors or adjusting your hair. Your hair becomes one less thing competing for your attention throughout the day. Neutrful supports hair health from within, working overtime to deliver results you can see and feel so your hair becomes something you enjoy, not something you stress about. Neutral is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand and it's the number one hair growth supplement brand personally used by dermatologists. Nutrafol's hair growth supplements are peer reviewed, NSF certified for sport and clinically tested. Let your hair be one less thing to worry about. See visibly thicker, stronger, faster growing hair in three to six months with Nutrafol For a limited time, Nutrafol is offering our listeners $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping when you visit nutrafool.com and enjoy. Promo code day10 that's nutrafool.com spelled n u t r-a f o l.com Promo code day10 here's what else we're following today.

[B]

Header lines

[C]

I said, do you think the negotiations are over now or is this a bluff by the Iranians? The President said, I don't care if they're over. Honestly, I really don't care. I couldn't care less if they're over, they're over. If they're not. You know, I think they took too much time, frankly. I think they started to get a little boring.

[A]

Fantastic news courtesy of cnbc, who asked President Trump Monday about Iran's decision to suspend negotiations with the US Over Trump's ongoing war there. Trump also posted on Truth Social Monday that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to dial fighting after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Per Axios. The conversation went so well that President Trump said both what the fuck are you doing? And you're fucking crazy. Paging Dr. Orna Netanyahu confirmed the conversation, but said the Israeli military will continue to, quote, operate as planned in southern Lebanon, but Iran wants any peace deal to include Lebanon, so that's going to be a problem. The Trump administration said Monday it would temporarily pause its $1.776 billion fund meant to compensate allies complying with a court order. The slush fund drew backlash from Republicans, who raised concerns about a lack of oversight and the potential for payouts to participants in the January 6 insurrection. The Justice Department said in a statement that it, quote, disagrees strongly with that decision, but it would abide by it. The president says he plans to follow the law and this is news A federal appeals court ruled that a Pentagon policy banning transgender troops from military service is illegal. The Monday decision is another legal setback for President Trump's sweeping agenda. The majority opinion by a three judge panel from the U.S. court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit held that the Trump administration's policy was designed to exclude people from the military based on their gender identity. However, the ban remains in effect. The U.S. supreme Court allowed the Pentagon to start enforcing it last year as litigation continues to play out. It's primary day in more states than California, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota all head to the polls today. Here are some of the things that we'll be watching closely. In New Jersey, one district could play a major role in who controls the House of Representatives. In Iowa, the governor and Senate seats are up for grabs. Look for both races to have major ripple effects across congressional contests as well. And in Montana, open seats create high stakes for both the Senate and the House. World cup fans in a growing number of US Cities won't have an issue finding a drink to go with their late night match. State leaders across the US Are extending bar and restaurant hours during the world's most watched sporting events. They want to help businesses and improve fan experiences, particularly for those who may have been priced out of tickets, which is all of us. Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode island and Washington have all approved various measures to extend hours for alcohol sales during the tournament. Similar proposals are being considered in New York and Massachusetts. More options than ever for European tourists who thought they could easily walk from New Jersey to Manhattan. And that's the Newt. Before we go, Angelenos, come catch a live taping of Love it or Leave It. They've moved into a new space at Interwoven Studios and have an exciting lineup of upcoming guests, including the stand up Todd Glass, SNL alum Jay Farrow, Never have I Evers, Porna Jagannathan and more. Plus, don't miss a special Pride episode later in June. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Be a Scott Pelley and not a Nick Bilton and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just about longtime 60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley yelling at the show's new EP, Nick Bilton, during a work meeting. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Erin Ryan and enjoy the bagels.

[D]

What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Foer, Erica Morrison and Adrienne Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Kantor. We'd help today from the Associated Press Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.