Erica Chenoweth (2:42)

Thank you so much. Glad to be here.

Jane Coaston (2:44)

First off, I feel like our audience probably knows a lot about these protests and has already attended an earlier iteration. But can you tell us a little bit about the no Kings protests this weekend and who is actually going to the no Kings protests?

Erica Chenoweth (2:58)

Well, what I know about it is that it's being organized as kind of a second version of what was widely considered to be quite a successful protest mobilization on June 14th. And the idea is to reprise that and to draw potentially even a larger crowd. Who's going? I don't know. I suppose we'll be finding out. One thing that my team has just published today is a study suggesting that we're seeing a lot more protest happening in counties where Donald Trump won the election than we did during any really at any period, in a persistent way during his first term. And so I do think we're seeing people from unlikely corners of the country, what many people would consider to be kind of deeply red areas, showing up and participating in protests in ways that might be otherwise surprising to your listeners.

Jane Coaston (3:49)

Yeah. In response to the first iteration of these protests, there were a lot of complaints from the right that everyone who went was old and useless. Boomers, whatever. Now they seem to be arguing that the no Kings protests are only attended by antifa super soldiers and funded by, I don't know, the got. Actually, that's a great question. Who is funding these protests?

Erica Chenoweth (4:13)

I don't know the answer to that myself. I actually think most of the people who show up are certainly not paid protesters. I don't know any of those. One thing I'll say is what we can observe makes clear a few things about these protests. One is that they are overwhelmingly peaceful. So, you know, episodes of violence are things that we can observe. We can look for indicators at protest events, of injuries, of damage to property, of injuries to police. Those are things we can observe and that are widely reported when they happen and that we can keep track of. And what we found is that the current movement that's associated with no Kings has produced almost no significant injuries or property damage or anything like that throughout its entire duration this year. It's something like 99.7% of the events 50 feature no property damage, no injuries to protesters or police. Like these are overwhelmingly nonviolent and peaceful actions.

Jane Coaston (5:12)

I want to ask you a broader question because we've seen with how the administration is talking about the no Kings protest A lot of talk about how they need to figure out who's funding these protests full of antifa super soldiers or something like that. And there was a Wall Street Journal report earlier this week that Trump is trying to use the IRS to go after his political enemies. Can. Can you tell us a little bit about what they're actually trying to do here?

Erica Chenoweth (5:37)

Sure. I think there are two things that are going on that's quite familiar that we see around the world among people you might describe as aspiring authoritarians. One is to just systematically mischaracterize the political opposition as criminal. And that's just a way that they try to delegitimize their opposition using whatever kind of tools they have at their disposal, whether they're legal or rhetorical or otherwise. And I do worry very much about the chilling effects that this might have, and I worry very much about the actual effects it might have on people who are engaged in lawful, peaceful assembly that's protected under the First Amendment. It's like, number one, the First Amendment. That's the thing. So the government actually has the burden of protecting the right of people to do that, not trying to find ways to undermine it through legal or quasi legal means.

Jane Coaston (6:34)

I think that this whole moment seems a little reminiscent of the time after 9 11, which is such a baffling comparison to need to make. But the way that Trump talks about antifa and his political opposition reminds me of the war on terror, where you have a vague, decentralized ideology and you put all of the things that you're worried about on that ideology and call that terrorism. And basically it allows the administration to call anyone who disagrees with them a terrorist. What's the reality of how these crackdowns on political opposition are going to play out given the First Amendment, given that there is some legal backing to speak out against this particular government?

Erica Chenoweth (7:18)

Yeah, I mean, it remains to be seen how deep the overreach will be and also whether legal challenges and other ways of pushing are gonna uphold the First Amendment or whether we're in a situation where, say, the Supreme Court interprets the President's power in a way that's more aligned with the way Donald Trump would like them to. So there's a bit of uncertainty about this, but I think what we know now is the First Amendment is the First Amendment and long standing jurisprudence around it is that the government cannot punish or censor people for expressing ideas it disagrees with. That's the fundamental point. And so the important thing for folks to know is that that's where things Stand. And if we don't express our rights, they're not self enforcing. We have to use them in order to keep them in a way.

Jane Coaston (8:03)

You famously calculated that authoritarian governments around the world have been overpowered when 3.5% of a country's population is mobilized in resistance. How did you come to that figure? Like, what does resistance mean here? How does this particular number prove to be so effective?

Erica Chenoweth (8:20)

Yeah, so this comes from a study that I did with Maria Steffen between like 2008 and 2011. And what we did was we looked at all of the mass mobilizations that had happened around the world from 1900 to 2006 that sought to oust an incumbent national leader, usually a dictator, or to create an independent country through secession, self determination or ousting in sort of foreign military occupation or colonial power. So that was limited to those types of cases. And then what we did was we looked at whether the mobilizations were primarily people power mobilizations, where it was unarmed, ordinary people engaged in protest, strikes, demonstrations, et cetera, or whether it was armed insurgency and armed rebellion. And in our book, what we reported is that those that relied on people power at that time were more likely to have succeeded. And when we were sort of engaging with activists and others around those ideas, there was one activist who asked me if there was a critical threshold for popular participation that guaranteed the success of the people power movements. And I didn't know. So I opened the data set and I looked to see if there was one. And the answer was like, none of the movements had failed after they had mobilized 3.5% of the population. So that is the story about where the statistic came from. I would say the key thing to know about it is that it's a historical observation around a specific set of cases. There have been exceptions to it since those cases were published. And it's not a predictive or prescriptive number.

Jane Coaston (9:48)

Right.

Erica Chenoweth (9:48)

We don't know what happens when movements are actively trying to mobilize 3.5% of the population and aiming at that number as a target, without the other trappings of what makes movements succeed, like building a broad base of support, building a strategy that allows them to elicit defections within the opponent's pillars of support, whether they're building leadership, whether they are building a kind of staying power. And so that's just to say the way that it should be interpreted in a kind of prescriptive way should be with caution.

Jane Coaston (10:19)

Erika, this is super helpful. Thank you so much for your time.

Erica Chenoweth (10:23)

Thank you so much.

Jane Coaston (10:24)

That was my conversation with Erika Chenoweth, a political scientist who studies protest, social movements and democracy. We will link to their work in the show. Notes we'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review and Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads Whataday is brought to you by ag1agz is a nighttime drink designed to support restful restorative sleep with clinically studied key ingredients including adaptogens, herbs and minerals. AGZ is a melatonin free formula that supports the body's natural sleep cycle. AGZ supports three stages of wind down Adaptogens and aminos help you ease into sleep by helping your nervous system unwind and manage daily stress. Restful Sleep Restorative nutrients help optimize sleep quality Wake refreshed antioxidants including Saffron help you wake feeling refreshed, not groggy. AGZ isn't a melatonin based supplement. It's a combination of nutrients with benefits that compound over time, all to work in harmony with your natural sleep cycle without overriding it. It's not a band aid sleep solution like so many of the options out there. Rather than overriding your body's natural rhythms, AGZ helps your mind and your body ease into rest with a blend of clinically studied key calming herbs, magnesium and adaptogens. And while AG1 was meant to be enjoyed in cold water, you can enjoy AGZ either warm or cold and in milk or water. Feel free to experiment with what you like. And there are a bunch of tasty flavors like chocolate, chocolate, mint and mixed berry. I take AG1 every morning and AGZ is critical to my nighttime routine. If you're ready to turn down the stress and focus on the rest, head to drinkag1.com wad to get a free frother with your first purchase of AGZ. That's drinkag1.com wad to get started welcome.

Erica Chenoweth (12:25)

Back to Listen to youo Heart. I'm Jerry and I'm Jerry's Heart.

Jane Coaston (12:28)

Today's topic Repatha Evolocumab Heart. Why'd you pick this one? Well Jerry, for people who have had a heart attack like us, diet and exercise might not be enough to lower the risk of another one. Okay, to help know if we're at risk, we should be getting our LDL C, our bad cholesterol checked, and talking to our doctor. I'm listening. And if it's still too high, Repatha can be added to a statin to lower our LDL C and our heart attack risk. Hmm, guess it's time to ask about Repatha.

Erica Chenoweth (12:56)

Do not take Repatha if you are allergic to it. Serious allergic reactions can occur.

Jane Coaston (13:00)

Get medical help right away if you have trouble breathing or swallowing Swelling of the face, lips, tongue, throat or arms. Common side effects include runny nose, sore throat common cold symptoms flu or flu like symptoms Back pain, high blood sugar and redness Pain or bruising at the injection site.

Erica Chenoweth (13:17)

Listen to your heart. Ask your doctor about Repatha. Learn more@repatha.com or call 1-844-repatha Try angel.

Jane Coaston (13:31)

Stuff for your tushy. It's made by angels soft and strong. Budget friendly the choices Simple A role that feels like paradise and always at a heavenly prize. Angel soft angel soft Soft and strong.

Erica Chenoweth (13:49)

So simple.

Jane Coaston (13:51)

Pick up a pack today.

Erica Chenoweth (13:52)

Angel soft Soft and strong. Simple.

Jane Coaston (13:57)

Here's what else we're following today. Head of lines Mr. President, John Bolt.

Erica Chenoweth (14:04)

Was just indicted by a grand jury in Maryland.

Jane Coaston (14:06)

Do you have a reaction to that?

Erica Chenoweth (14:07)

I didn't know that.

Jane Coaston (14:08)

You told me for the first time.

Erica Chenoweth (14:09)

But I think he's, you know, bad person. I think he's a bad guy.

Jane Coaston (14:16)

Yeah, he's a bad guy.

Erica Chenoweth (14:17)

It's too bad. But the way it goes.

Jane Coaston (14:20)

That's the way it goes, right?

Erica Chenoweth (14:21)

That's the way it goes.

Jane Coaston (14:23)

The way it goes when Trump doesn't like you. John Bolton was Trump's national security adviser in his first term, and the federal indictment in Maryland Thursday involved mishandling classified information. Bolton had served Trump for more than a year before Trump gave him the boot in 2019 over disagreements on how to treat despotic regimes like North Korea and Iran. He then became an outspoken critic of Trump. Prosecutors allege Bolton stored top secret records at home. Were they in his gilded bathroom, too? And shared classified information in diary, like notes with relatives. The 18 count indictment also alleges that the personal email account Bolten used to share the information was hacked by an entity believed to be associated with Iran. Though the investigation into Bolton started before Trump's second term, the case will unfold against the backdrop of Trump weaponizing the Justice Department against his political enemies. So far, the running list includes New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI Director James Comey. In a statement Thursday, Bolton hit back, writing, quote, now I have become the latest target in weaponizing the Justice Department to charge those he deems to be his enemies with charges that were declined before or distort the facts this week, the US Senate failed for the 10th time to pass a funding bill to reopen the government. One of the core demands holding up a deal to reopen the government is extending Affordable Care act subsidies. Senate Majority Leader John Thune appeared on MSNBC and floated a compromise. Republicans would guarantee Democrats a standalone vote on the issue.

Erica Chenoweth (15:54)

I've told them, I said, and I've said we are willing to have the conversation. I've said if you need a vote, we can guarantee you get a vote by a date certain. At some point. Democrats have to take yes for an answer. But I agree totally. We are all about getting health insurance down, making it affordable to more people.

Jane Coaston (16:10)

A Republican guarantee, sure. Illinois Democratic Senator Dick Durbin said that while Thune's suggestion of a guaranteed vote on the subsidies was progress, he was clear that, quote, it's got to be more than a promise that we might get around to it later. When asked about the offer from Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was slightly less optimistic. Look, we're not negotiating in public, plain and simple. And Leader Thune has not come to me with any proposal at this point. The Senate is set to vote next week to pay some federal employees, including active duty members of the military. As the shutdown drags into its third week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Thursday that the admiral in charge of US Military forces in Latin America will step down at the end of this year. Admiral Alvin Holsey took the job late last year and the position usually lasts three years. The announcement did not provide a reason for Halsey's early exit, but an anonymous source told Reuters that Halsey and Hickseth had been butting heads over the last few days. Is it a coincidence that also in the last few days Trump confirmed that the CIA is carrying out covert operations inside Venezuela and that he declined to rule out conducting military strikes on Venezuelan soil? Must be. I'm sure it's also just a coincidence that over the past few weeks, alleged drug smuggling boats have been extrajudiciously bombed by the US Military without providing evidence to Congress that the boats have anything to do with drug cartels. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro addressed Trump's threats in a speech on Wednesday. No al cambio de regimem que no recuerda tanto. Iraq, Libya y parute. He says there, quote, no to regime change, which reminds us so much of the endless failed wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and so on. Maduro also cited U S backed coups in Argentina and Chile, after which right wing dictators killed or disappeared thousands of people so point to Maduro. On Thursday, White House press secretary Caroline Levitt was asked during a press gaggle whether Trump believes Maduro's days are numbered.

Erica Chenoweth (18:22)

I think President Trump believes that Nicolas Maduro is an illegitimate president leading an illegitimate regime that has been trafficking drugs to the United States of America for far too long and we're not going to tolerate it.

Jane Coaston (18:34)

Donald Trump the peace President Trump says he phoned Russian President Putin Thursday to kick up momentum for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. I mean peace in Ukraine. His Truth social post about all this said that the conversation was productive and that it could lead to a face to face meeting in Hungary. Things have been icy between Trump and Putin lately, especially after that summertime summit they held in Alaska turned out to be a low cal nothing burger. There were no peace deals and Russia kept unloading drones and missiles on Ukraine. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been getting more FaceTime with Trump. Zelensky dressed to impress Trump at the White House in August, and he's set to be there again today. The stakes are high. Trump threatened to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles that can strike deep into Russia. Ukraine's made a habit of destroying Russian oil and gas facilities, and the missiles could put more of them in reach. As for whether Trump can get Putin and Zelenskyy to talk face to face, press Secretary Caroline Levitt fielded that one to reporters.

Erica Chenoweth (19:33)

President Putin discussed meeting together in Budapest and President Trump will talk about that opportunity with President Zelensky when he's here at the White House.

Jane Coaston (19:42)

Trump says cooler heads might eventually prevail, though thanks to him, his Truth Social post boasts I actually believe that the success in the Middle east will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the war with Russia, Ukraine. And that's the news. One more thing. It's been a tough time in America lately for everyone who values values, you know, respect, dignity, not being a racist in a group chat. It can feel as if the worst people in the world just keep benefiting from being the worst. But not always. Sometimes the worst people fail miserably. Take Ryan Walters. Until very recently, he served as Oklahoma's state superintendent of public instruction, a position he seemed to view as a license to make Oklahoma schools as Trumpy as humanly possible. For example, In November of 2024, Walters announced that he was requiring all Oklahoma schools to show a video of himself praying for Trump. Here's a portion of that video.

Erica Chenoweth (20:58)

I will now say a prayer. And to be clear, students, you don't have to join.

Jane Coaston (21:03)

But if you so wish, I'm going to go ahead and pray.

Erica Chenoweth (21:07)

Dear God, thank you for all the blessings you've given our country. I pray for our leaders to make the right decisions. I pray in particular for President Donald.

Jane Coaston (21:17)

Trump and his team as they continue.

Erica Chenoweth (21:20)

To bring about change to the country.

Jane Coaston (21:23)

That's after he decided that all schools in Oklahoma should teach the bible in grades five through 12. Getting copies of a certain Bible for every school would cost $3 million, which is odd because you can find the Bible for free online like easily. And earlier this year, Walters decided that any teachers coming to Oklahoma from, quote, progressive states would need to pass a test to ensure they weren't too woke. Now, here's where I usually have to tell you that Walters had tons of support from his fellow Republicans for his fight against socialism or something. But he didn't. Because during his time in office, lots of Republicans and in Oklahoma seemed to think Walters was too focused on culture war bullshit and not focused nearly enough on his actual job. See, besides the nonsense I just listed, things just kept happening to Ryan Walters. Like the time somehow images of nude women were playing on a TV in his office during a meeting. Or the many times he made the state pay for his out of state trips to, for example, go see a, quote, anti abortion horror film or meet with the creator of Libs of TikTok. The total for those trips for himself and his staff? $30,000. So when Walters unexpectedly resigned to lead a conservative group aimed at, quote, destroying teachers unions, even his fellow Republicans seem thrilled to see him gone. Oklahoma's attorney general said Walters was, quote, an embarrassment to our state. One of the first acts of Walters replacement, Lindell Fields, he canceled that whole Bible curriculum thing Thursday, saying he has, quote, no plans to distribute Bibles or a biblical character education curriculum in classrooms. Instead, he wants to do something wild and crazy. Focus on Oklahoma's schools before we go Every day on the news, we see the headlines, we hear from the nation's most powerful leaders and watch pundits analyze it all in studios far removed from the everyday people caught in the crosshairs. Not anymore. Alex Wagner wants to step away from the traditional media bubble and towards the folks most affected by her unprecedented times. In her new show, Runaway country with Alex Wagner, she'll bring you stories from the front lines and the voices of those too often left out of the conversation. Make sure to tune into the premiere of Runaway country with Alex Wagner on October 23rd. New episodes drop every Thursday. Make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and watch on YouTube. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, contemplate the horrible news that the wine industry is in trouble, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, I'm not just about how, yes, we told you yesterday that alcohol is linked to dementia, but also the wine industry is facing challenges from climate change and consumer disposition satisfaction. Like me, Water Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe@qriket.com subscribe I'm Jane Coasten and look, if the wine industry needs me to step up, I will meet the challenge. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Foer and Chris Allport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Ali, Gina Pollack and Caitlin Plummer. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our theme music is Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America. East. Come to DSW for the shoes.

Erica Chenoweth (25:31)

Stay for the fun.

Jane Coaston (25:32)

Because let's be honest, if shoe shopping isn't fun, are you even doing it right? So go ahead, try something new. Try something different, good different. Try something that feels like you.

Erica Chenoweth (25:45)

You know, the real you.

Jane Coaston (25:46)

And then definitely brag about it later. Because at dsw, you've got unlimited freedom to play. Buy the shoes that get you at prices that get your budget at DSW stores or@dsw.com Let us surprise you. This Supreme Court term kicks off with no shortage of chaos on the docket. In October alone, the justices will weigh whether cops can break into your home without a warrant, whether bans on conversion therapy for LGBTQ kids count as censorship, and whether states can gerrymander or must gerrymander majority black districts. It's a term packed with questions that cut to the heart of free speech, voting rights and the power of the police. And on strict scrutiny. We're here to cut through the noise with a carefully honed balance of legal expertise and plenty of smack talk. New episodes drop every Monday. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.