Can Talarico Turn Texas Blue?

Summary

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What A Day | "Can Talarico Turn Texas Blue?"

Date: March 5, 2026
Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Daniella Diaz, political reporter

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Episode Overview

This episode takes a deep dive into the explosive 2026 Texas primary races, focusing on the unexpected upset by James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary and speculating on whether a Democrat could finally turn Texas blue in November. Jane Coaston and political reporter Daniella Diaz dissect the results and implications of both parties’ primaries, consider the impact of Trump's interference and Texas’ redistricting, and assess what the races suggest for the makeup of the next Congress.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. James Talarico’s Big Win: An Upset in the Texas Senate Democratic Primary

• Background on Talarico: Relatively unknown outside his small Austin-area House district prior to this campaign, Talarico gained statewide recognition for participating in the 2021 Democratic walkout to block redistricting.
• Unexpected Victory: Despite Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett’s strong early lead and national profile, Talarico surged late and won.
  • “In many ways, it’s still an upset because when this all began, we didn’t know who he was. Now everyone knows who he is across the country, not even just in Texas.” - Daniella Diaz [04:55]
• Reasons for Talarico’s Success:
  • Ground-game-focused campaign, traveling statewide to meet voters.
  • Effectively leveraged his faith and background as a former seminarian, which resonated with Texas’ religious voters.
  • He is perceived as more capable of wooing moderates and independents than Crockett.
    • “One of the biggest things that I heard from voters... they did not think that Jasmine Crockett would do a good job in a general election… they believe that James Talarico would do a better job of cultivating moderate voters, independent voters...” - Daniella Diaz [05:18]

2. Republican Primary: Cornyn vs. Paxton and the Shadow of Trump

• A Contentious Republican Field: The race between longtime Senator John Cornyn and embattled Attorney General Ken Paxton was costly and chaotic, ending without a clear winner—heading to a runoff.
  • “Despite years of controversies... it looked like Paxton was going to win the primary outright, but the race was so close he’ll be in a May runoff with Cornyn instead.” - Jane Coaston [02:20]
• The Trump Factor:
  • Trump had withheld endorsement, viewing Cornyn as potentially weak (“He doesn’t like endorsing losers…” [06:32]).
  • As Cornyn performed better than expected, Trump indicated he may now support him, hoping to avoid a draining runoff.
  • However, it’s unclear if Paxton would step aside even if Trump intervenes.
    • “That’s the multimillion dollar question, right?... Ken Paxton doesn’t always do what the party establishment wants.” - Daniella Diaz [07:43]

3. Redistricting Fallout & Republican Anxiety

• Trump’s Push for New Maps: Last year’s redistricting, spurred by Trump’s concerns, played into primary outcomes—e.g., Dan Crenshaw losing his seat after district changes and facing a hard-right challenger.
  • “[Redistricting] did play a role... but some races are really about the candidates themselves.” - Daniella Diaz [09:56]
• Republican Strategists’ Concerns:
  • Anxiety about fielding a damaged candidate like Paxton in the general.
  • Slim GOP majority in the House; prospects could turn on just a few seats.

4. The Potential for Texas to Flip

• Could Texas Go Blue?
  • Both parties have their own optimistic spins, touting “red to blue” or “redder” programs.
  • Given current maps, only a “handful” of seats are realistically in play; supermajorities are off the table.
  • “The ability to have a super majority doesn’t exist anymore, Jane. … if Democrats win in November they will flip a handful of seats and they’re always seats I least expect.” - Daniella Diaz [12:36]

5. National Implications: The House Majority Hangs by a Thread

• House Speaker Mike Johnson currently holds only a one-seat GOP majority.
• “If he loses one Republican with full attendance, that bill could go down. That’s how slim his majority is.” - Daniella Diaz [12:27]
• Either party gaining or losing just a few seats could change control, highlighting the wider importance of every Texas outcome.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Talarico’s Acceptance:
  “Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope, and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
  — James Talarico [01:58]

• On Crockett’s Loss:
  “She had gone viral, a coup times for fighting Republican candidates... she entered this race with a huge lead, and then we saw James Talarico climb slowly behind her and then beat her.”
  — Daniella Diaz [03:44]

• On Republican Fears:
  “They saw what voters across the state saw... [Talarico] would probably be a very formidable candidate in a general election, especially considering Ken Paxton was pulling ahead…”
  — Daniella Diaz [06:22]

• About Supermajorities:
  “The ability to have a super majority doesn’t exist anymore, Jane.”
  — Daniella Diaz [12:29]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:41 — Setting the scene: why Texas matters this cycle
• 01:58 – 05:49 — Talarico’s surprising victory; Crockett’s strengths and why she lost
• 05:49 – 09:11 — Republican primary chaos: Cornyn vs. Paxton, Trump’s impact, costs, and risks
• 09:11 – 11:05 — Redistricting’s influence and notable primary fallout (Crenshaw, Gonzalez)
• 11:12 – 12:45 — How many Texas seats could flip? The razor-thin House margin
• 12:45 — Wrap-up and analysis of general election prospects

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Takeaways

• James Talarico’s primary victory establishes him as a formidable Democratic Senate contender in Texas, largely due to effective grassroots organizing and broader appeal than his opponent.
• The Texas GOP faces infighting and high-stakes risks, especially if Paxton continues to fight for the nomination despite vulnerabilities.
• Redistricting, national messaging, and Trump’s involvement are dramatically shaping both parties’ prospects.
• With the slimmest possible House majority, every single Texas race is in play and pivotal for control of Congress.

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If you missed this episode, you now have a guide to why James Talarico suddenly matters, what to watch for as Texas’ Senate and House races develop, and how the underlying political dynamics could remap national power in November.

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Transcript

[Jane Coaston]

Foreign. March 5th I'm Jane Coston and this is what a day. The show saying that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has just two options when answering California Democratic Representative Sidney Kamlogger dove during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Tuesday, either yes or no. So, Secretary Noem, at any time during your tenure as director of Department of Homeland Security, have you had sexual relations with Corey Lewandowski? Mr. Chairman, I am shocked that we're

[Daniella Diaz]

going down and peddling tabloid garbage in this committee today.

[Jane Coaston]

That is not a yes, nor is it a no. It would also be nice if she responded to the congresswoman directly instead of requesting the regional manager. On today's show, the Senate decides it's fine with the Trump administration's grab bag of explanations for its war with Iran, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Wages a fight against Dunkin Donuts and Massachusetts is wicked furious. But let's start with the 2026 midterms. Yes, technically there are months to go until November 3rd, but in many ways we are already deep in the fight for control of Congress. Three states held primaries on North Carolina, Arkansas and Texas, and all three saw massive turnout for good reason. These races are opportunities to shift the balance of power in Congress, where House Speaker Mike Johnson's GOP enjoys just a one seat majority. Yes, one seat. But probably the biggest spotlight was on Texas, where we saw both big spending and big turnout as voters cast ballots for candidates running for multiple House seats and one spot in the U.S. senate. Like Texas State Representative James Talarico, he spoke to supporters on Tuesday night before officially declaring victory.

[James Talarico]

Tonight, the people of our state gave

[Jane Coaston]

this country a little bit of hope,

[James Talarico]

and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.

[Jane Coaston]

Talarico won the chance to battle for a Senate seat, beating Texas Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in a primary that cost nearly $30 million. But that dollar amount pales in comparison to the $88 million spent on the Raccoon slap fight. That was the Republican Senate primary between Texas Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt. Despite years of controversies, including affairs and a near impeachment in the Republican controlled Texas state House for allegedly misusing the powers of his office. It looked like Paxton was going to win the primary outright, but the race was so close he'll be in a May runoff with Cornyn instead. So to find out what's next for candidates in the state, I spoke to Daniella Diaz. She's a reporter covering politics in Congress for notice. Daniella, welcome back to what A day.

[Daniella Diaz]

Thanks for having me, Jane. So great to be back.

[Jane Coaston]

Let's start with the candidates. Jasmine Crockett. She lost the primary to James Talarico, a Texas state representative who, before this campaign, I think people may not have heard of, until he went on Joe Rogan, which I think drew some attention to him and his campaign. Was this an upset, in your view? And how big of an upset was it if it was one?

[Daniella Diaz]

Jane? My colleagues and I were talking last night as we were watching the returns, and when we realized it was probably gonna be James Tallarico, we had a conversation where we said, is this an upset? I mean, it did seem like in the past couple weeks, he really surged, but I think it is an upset, Jane, because it's only been in the past couple of weeks, right? I mean, he's been running this campaign for a few months. Jasmine Crockett entered in December with massive name ID recognition amongst voters across the state, but also across the country. People know who she is. She had gone viral, a coup times for fighting Republican candidates, for standing up to Trump. She committed to continue doing that should she win the Texas Senate race. So we saw her really enter this race with a huge lead, and then we saw James Tall Rico climb slowly behind her and then beat her. It's interesting because he is someone that kind of came out of nowhere. If he's a state representative who has represented only 50,000 people. The district's really small. It's in the Austin area. He helped prevent a quorum call when Trump advised Texas Republicans to redistrict Texas. And he led Democrats in the state ledge out of the Capitol and maintain a lack of quorum so that they couldn't have the redistricting happening that made him a household name in Texas. So we saw his popularity grow, and he ran a really good campaign. I reported with my colleague Alex Rorty, multiple times the operation that he was leading. I mean, he had an on the ground effort, was traveling across the state to meet voters where they were. He's a Christian man. He talks about being in the seminary and his. His religion and how the role it plays. I mean, that really speaks to voters in Texas, a state that is still, you know, very religious. And I think that's how he was able to win over voters. But in many ways, it's still an upset because when this all began, we didn't know who he was. Now everyone knows who he is across the country, not even just in Texas. And you know what, Jane? One of the biggest things that I heard from Voters on the campaign trail in Tex is they did not think that Jesmyn Cockett would do a good job in a general election against whoever ends up winning, whether it be Cornyn or Paxton. And they believe that James Talarico would do a better job of cultivating moderate voters, independent voters that could flip from Republican to Democrat, since that's kind of been his strength as he's been running this race. Considering Jasmine Crockett has said that she's not interested in speaking to Republicans and trying to convert them to join her in Texas.

[Jane Coaston]

Now, of course, the Republican primary candidate has not been decided yet because it was too close and requires a runoff. Longtime Senator John Cornyn came out barely ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but didn't secure the nomination. And the anxiety from Texas Republicans probably is higher than I've seen it in a really long time. Do Tuesday's results tell us anything new about how Texas Republicans are feeling and where are they going from here?

[Daniella Diaz]

The strategists that I spoke to, Jane, were very concerned about a potential matchup with James Talarico. They saw what voters across the state saw and what brought them to the polls is that he would probably be a very formidable candidate in a general election, especially considering Ken Paxton was pulling ahead of John Cornyn. And it was likely that maybe John Cornyn wouldn't even win his own primary as the incumbent Republican in the state. What's interesting is the Donald Trump factor in all of this. He did not endorse the incumbent John Cornyn. He doesn't like endorsing losers, which is what I was told by Republican strategists and people close to the president leading up to this. Now, he actually just posted on Truth Social that he does plan to endorse. And whoever he plans to endorse, he's hoping that the other person drops out of the race and doesn't lead to a runoff. So that's a lot of pressure to put on whoever he doesn't endorse. However, reporting out there suggests that it's going to be John Cornyn that he supports. That is really interesting considering that for a long time the reason he didn't endorse is clearly because and people close to him believe he didn't think John Cornyn could win. And it's clear that after seeing that John Cornyn actually did significantly better than most people suggested, than polls suggested, that potentially could have lead to President Donald Trump supporting him.

[Jane Coaston]

Here's my question. Let's say Trump endorses Cornyn. Will Paxton actually listen to Trump and drop out? Or will he claim like Trump doesn't understand I'm so maga, I have to keep going. Does he just ignore Trump?

[Daniella Diaz]

That's the multimillion dollar question, right? Because something we haven't mentioned is how expensive this primary has been on both sides. Look, the nrc, the campaign arm for Senate Republicans, has spent millions of dollars trying to help in this race. They're trying to help John Cornyn as the incumbent. They think he would fare best in a general election. A John Cornyn, Republican nominee in Texas will do much better in a general election than Ken Paxton just because of his legal issues. You know, he was acquitted for during his impeachment trial, but that still lingers. His wife has been very honest about their divorce and his cheating allegations. None of those things will sit well with independent voters who haven't decided which side to vote on. Stratists believe that that's why Trump is probably going to weigh in now because he sees the writing on the wall. And a Ken Paxton nominee is not going to fare well potentially against James Talarico, Democratic nominee. And what we're seeing is if Ken Paxton doesn't drop out, this will become one of the most expensive Republican primary runoffs in Texas. It's already one of the most expensive primary races, even before the runoff was announced on Tuesday. So whether or not Ken Paxton decides to drop out remains to be seen. Although he does listen to the president, he does respect the president. He was one of the most fervent supporters of the president for many years. So maybe he will listen. It really is up to him.

[Jane Coaston]

Yeah, I mean, I remember that they have a long term relationship. But zooming out a bit. President Trump had pushed Texas to redraw its legislative maps last year because he worried Democrats might pick up congressional seats. And the maps were updated in time for these primaries. Did any of these races or even turnout say much about how this redistricting affected the races? Or I think at a larger way say much about how Texans are feeling about the Trump administration right now?

[Daniella Diaz]

I think there's been a couple of isolated incidences when it comes to primaries. For example, Dan Crenshaw losing his primary was affected by the redistricting, but also he had a very prominent primary opponent, Steve Toth, who was endorsed by Ted Cruz and some other conservatives.

[Jane Coaston]

Yeah, tpusa also, like, that was a weird one.

[Daniella Diaz]

Yeah, yeah, that played a major role. I think that was a scenario that we saw specifically in that primary. We're watching also what's going on with Tony Gonzalez he has a very, I don't know how else to put it but ugly story surrounding his campaign and now he's going to go into runoff with a very, very conservative primary opponent, Brandon Herrera. And the issue with Tony Gonzalez of course being that his aide self emulated and he had an affair with her. These two primaries are specific I think to the candidates and the races they ran and the stories around them and sort of the relationships they have on Capitol Hill. I talked to the chair of the NRCC House Republicans campaign arm Richard Hudson about a few hours ago and I asked him are you worried that by what happened in Texas with these two primary campaigns that you could lose the majority in November? And he said you're ignoring the other races where our picks won their primaries. So they are optimistic going forward. But I think those two primaries, the ones we just mentioned, are still going to be a headache.

[Jane Coaston]

Yeah. Keeping all of this in mind, how many Texas seats could actually go blue in the general election?

[Daniella Diaz]

Well, that's a good question because if you talk to Democrats they'll tell you more than a dozen.

[Jane Coaston]

Right.

[Daniella Diaz]

If you talk to Republicans they'll say we'll flip more Republican. It really depends and I think it's interesting both nrcc, the D trip, they are consistently putting out like their programs red to blue like the candidates that we think could flip districts. I mean the reality is the ability to have a super majority doesn't exist anymore, Jane. I mean there's not going to be super majorities in the House anymore just based on how so many districts are drawn across the country. What we're likely going to see is maybe if Democrats win in November they will flip a handful of seats and they're always seats I least expect. And if Republicans keep their majority and right now they have the slimmest majority they've ever had. I think that Speaker Mike Johnson has a one vote margin trying to, you know, hold his conference together and pass bills. Basically if he loses one Republican with full attendance, that bill could go down. That's how slim his majority is. They're hoping to get just a few more seats so that maybe they could have some people peel off for several bills so that they could still pass legislation. I mean it's crazy how tight things are. And there is a scenario where Democrats aren't able to flip the House at all and it stays Republican majority, which is what we saw two years ago when lots of folks predicted that Democrats could take the House. So I'm not in the prediction market but it's likely going to be a handful of seats that are at play.

[Jane Coaston]

Daniella, as always, thank you so much for joining me.

[Daniella Diaz]

Thank you.

[Jane Coaston]

That was my conversation with Daniella Diaz, a reporter covering politics in Congress. For notice. As always, we have more news on the way, but before we get there, we'd be honored if you cast your vote for us by subscribing to the show, leaving a five star review on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, watching us on YouTube, and sharing our work with your friends. More to come after some ads. Why Today is brought to you by Bilt. I don't like paying rent, and I bet you don't either, but BILT makes it feel a little bit better. BILT is the loyalty program for renters that rewards you monthly with points and exclusive benefits in your neighborhood. Let me explain. With bilt, every rent payment earns you points that can be used towards flights, hotels, Lyft rides, Amazon.com purchases and so much more. And here's something I'm really excited about. Now BILT members can earn points on mortgage payments for the first time. That means you can get rewarded wherever you live and unlock exclusive benefits from more than 45,000 restaurants, fitness studios, pharmacies and other neighborhood partners. Personally, I'd redeem my points for fitness classes, Amazon Deliveries, even a down payment on a home. It's simple. Paying rent is better with bilt. And now owning a home can be better with BILT too. Earn rewards and get something back wherever you live. Join the loyalty program for renters at joinbilt.com wad that's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com wad make sure to use our URL so they know we sent you what a day is. Brought to you by Factor Factor is a great way to make healthy eating genuinely easy. What goes inside Quality functional ingredients including lean proteins, colorful veggies, whole food ingredients and healthy fats. No refined sugar, no artificial sweeteners, no refined seed oils, and they're meals that fit your goals and schedule. Healthier eating, calorie management, more protein, and there's so much variety. A hundred rotating weekly meals to keep things fresh and delicious throughout winter. Options include High Protein Calorie, smart Mediterranean diet, GLP1 support, and ready to eat salads. Plus the new MusclePro collection supports strength and recovery. Perfect if you're getting back into a workout routine. And factor couldn't be simpler. Always fresh, never frozen. Ready in about two minutes. No prep, no stress. You can actually stick to your goals. I love to cook, but I think Factor is the next best thing. Head to FactorMeals.com wad50off and use code WAD50OFF to get 50% off and free breakfast for a year. Offer only valid for new Factor customers with code and qualifying auto renewing subscription purchase. Make healthier eating easy with Factor.

[James Talarico]

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[Jane Coaston]

else we're following today. Head of Lines

[Congressional Member]

we can't afford to hide under a desk and let any president, Democrat or Republican, send our best and brightest, our own kids, into war to risk their lives. Unless we have debated it, we have determined it's in the national interest, we have voted and thereby put our signature and our thumbprint on the notion that it's worth sending our best and brightest to risk their lives.

[Jane Coaston]

Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine made a case Wednesday to stop President Trump from using the US Military to fight Iran without congressional authorization, but the Senate ultimately voted down his war powers resolution. The vote was mostly along party lines, although Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman continued his quest to disappoint everyone who voted for him by siding with the gop. The House debated a war powers resolution of its own on Wednesday and is expected to vote on it today. A federal Trade court judge ruled that the Trump administration needs to issue massive refunds on tariffs. It's been nearly two weeks since the Supreme Court declared most of Trump's beloved tariffs unconstitutional, but on Wednesday, a lawyer for the Justice Department said that the administration still hasn't figured out a process for issuing refunds. The administration will need to update the judge on the refund process during a hearing on Friday, the federal government has collected over $130 billion from the tariffs. That is a lot of gift cards to send out. Now you might be thinking, shouldn't all the consumers out there get a refund, since we were typically the ones left paying higher prices thanks to the Trump administration's pointless trade policy, while the companies that paid to import their products are the only ones who will be getting reimbursed. Thanks a lot, Trump.

[Congressional Member]

The question is now on motion number two from Representative Mace. This deals with Attorney General Bondi.

[Jane Coaston]

The House Oversight Committee voted to subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi over her department's handling of files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mr. Chairman, on this vote, the ayes

[Daniella Diaz]

are 24, the nays are 19.

[Congressional Member]

The ayes have it and the motion is agreed to.

[Jane Coaston]

The bipartisan vote reflects frustration with the Department of Justice's review and release of the documents. Critics have accused the Trump administration of fumbling the rollout and withholding too much. And the Epstein binders photo op set up by Bondi with right wing influencers last year probably didn't help. After the vote Wednesday, South Carolina Republican Representative Nancy Mace tweeted that Bondi will now testify about missing evidence, including, quote, the videos, the audio, the documents the DOJ is hiding. In another post, Mace, who proposed the subpoena, added, quote, the American people want answers on the Epstein files and so do we. Finally, something we can both agree on.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]

And we're gonna ask Dunkin Donuts and Starbucks show us the safety data that show that it's okay for a teenage girl drinking iced coffee with 115 grams of sugar in it. I don't think they're gonna be able to do it.

[Jane Coaston]

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Took time away from working out with Kid Rock to anger caffeine addicts, something he really, really, really doesn't want to do. He spoke last week at the Eat Real Food rally in Austin, Texas. And while I'm sure some Starbucks fans are offended by his remarks, the state of Massachusetts is taking his shot at Dunkin very personally. On Wednesday, Massachusetts Democratic Governor Maura Healey hit back by tweeting an image of a Dunkin cup above text that reads, quote, come and take it. According to the Boston Globe, while Kennedy was railing against Dunkin and Starbucks, his audience was being served cheeseburgers and fries from the maha friendly fast food chain Steak n Shake. Double standards aside, Kennedy can try to regulate Duncan, but not without a fight from the army of madholes who will mobilize to protect their sacred brew. And that's the news. Before we go, catch Hysteria's Aaron Ryan on Runaway country today. In this episode, they get into the rise of Tradwives. Talk to a former one about what it was like to leave, including going to a bar with friends for the first time. And dig into how the Heritage foundation is working to resubjugate women from pushing marriage boot camps run by the Department of Health and Human Services to reshaping federal policy around gender. Listen to A runaway country on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. And make sure to subscribe so you never miss a beat. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a review. Thanks Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch for reminding us of this week that the founding Fathers were drunk as revolutionary skunks. Then tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not

[Historical Narrator]

just about John Adams took a tankard of hard cider with his breakfast every day. James Madison reportedly drank a pint of whiskey every day. Thomas Jefferson said he wasn't much of a user of alcohol. He only had three or four glasses of wine a night.

[Jane Coaston]

Like me. What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Jane Coston and look, I know this was in the context of a Supreme Court case about whether or not marijuana users can own guns, but as a big fan of Ken Burns prohibition documentary, it really is something. Just how much every American drank before 1920. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Foer. Our producer is Caitlin Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We have production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Ali and Ethan Oberman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

[Native Deodorant Advertiser]

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[Jane Coaston]

Yeah.

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[Daniella Diaz]

Wow, this smells heavenly clean.

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[Daniella Diaz]

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