Jane Coston (3:37)

Yeah, let's talk about Prime Minister Modi for a minute because I think that that seems to me to be the thing that's changed a lot here, which is his BJP party has moved the country in a very right wing, populist, Hindu nationalist direction. To what extent is the BJP pushing India towards war?

Joshua Keating (3:58)

You know, I think Modi has portrayed himself as a very tough on terrorist leader, a very national security hawk, you could say. And he's sort of wedded that too. As you said, this Hindu nationalist ideology. And that's just sort of a recipe for tension with neighboring Pakistan. The position of the Indian government, the allegation they have, is that these groups that carry out attacks in India are not just tolerated by the Pakistani government, but actually supported by them. And so that means, you know, from their perspective, when one of these attacks happens, it's not just this group that's responsible, it's the Pakistani state itself.

Jane Coston (4:38)

Let's talk about Pakistan. Its de facto leader is the chief of the military, General Asim Munir, though he's much more behind the scenes than Modi. You mentioned how the Indian government perceives that the terrorist attack in Kashmir was the fault in some part of the Pakistani state. First, how has General Munir been shaping Pakistan's response to this conflict? And second, is there any truth to that?

Joshua Keating (5:00)

Well, you know, in some ways, Munir is kind of a mirror image of Modi. He's, you know, the most overtly openly religious military chief Pakistan has had. So, so you really kind of have Hindu nationalism on one side and Muslim nationalism on the other side, which sort of contributes to this really sort of bitter sectarian dynamic that we're facing here. The Pakistani government denies having any links to these groups that have carried out the attacks. You know, in terms of the specific incident, India hasn't actually presented publicly any evidence of the Pakistani state's involvement in this attack. There is a fairly well established pattern going back years of the Pakistani government, and particularly Pakistan's powerful intelligence services at least turning a blind eye to militant groups that operate on its territory. So, you know, it's difficult to establish culpability in any one case. But, you know, this would not be totally out of character that there would at least be some knowledge of what was going on and of this group.

Jane Coston (6:07)

Now, the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement over the weekend, but there's been fighting going on since then. So what needs to happen to make sure a ceasefire can actually take place?

Joshua Keating (6:18)

It does seem likely that this ceasefire will hold. There have been violations, but it's important to remember that sort of small scale exchanges of fire across the border actually aren't that unusual. But in terms of sort of the large scale fighting, the artillery, the drones, the missile strikes, I would expect that to die down. I mean, both sides have kind of established the point they were trying to make for India. They can say there was a strong military response to this attack. On the Pakistan side, they can say that in the process they inflicted some damage on the Indian military. They say they downed five Indian fighter jets. The Indian side denies that. Seems like they at least downed one or two. But both sides has something they can call a victory here, which suggests to me that there's some incentive for them to de escalate at this point.

Jane Coston (7:16)

You're based in the US So you're not on the ground in the region. But based on my own little bit of Googling, it seems like both countries respective governments are pushing this conflict in the media in their own specific direction. So what do we know about how India and Pakistan are portraying this conflict in the media and how it's shaping sentiment on the ground?

Joshua Keating (7:35)

Well, I mean, this is a perfect encapsulation of 21st century warfare, which means we're seeing a lot of drones and a lot of social media, and those are both very important. On the social media side, you know, there's a ton of misinformation, a ton of propaganda. You know, the nationalist fervor on both sides is really high, and that's sort of necessitated the strong military response that we saw. But in a weird way, it sort of made that easier for them to de escalate as well, because, you know, both sides are kind of living in their own social media reality. That also means it's sort of easier for Each government to claim victory, they can just sort of deny the casualty reports coming from the other government and say, you know, we've inflicted, you know, this huge amount of damage on our enemy, and so this is a victory and we can stop fighting now. And in a weird way, it's sort of both drove these two countries into this war, but also made it easier for them to get out of it.

Jane Coston (8:37)

What role is the US Playing in all of this? Because when the conflict first broke out last month, the Trump administration kind of dismissed it as not a problem for the U.S. vice President J.D. vance literally said the conflict was, quote, none of our business. But then a few days later, he was also the one who called Prime Minister Modi to encourage ceasefire talks, according to reporting from cnn. Now, like the Indian government and the Trump administration, this has been an ongoing relationship for going on now for two terms. But what is the Trump administration actually doing here?

Joshua Keating (9:07)

Yeah, I mean, traditionally, the US has played in several of the previous incidents that I mentioned. The 1999 Cargill War, these 2016, 2019 crises. It's often been US mediation that sort of led both sides to de. Escalate. So that's sort of a traditional role for the U.S. to play. You know, one thing that's changed, I think, you know, the. The Indian government under Modi has gotten much, much closer to the US that's happened a lot under Trump, happened a fair bit under Biden as well. And what's motivating that is not so much the Pakistan issue, but their sort of mutual distrust of China. And meanwhile, the Pakistani US Relationship has always been extremely complicated, extremely fraught. But particularly since the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan is just less of a priority for the US Now. And meanwhile, Pakistan has also been getting closer with China. And a lot of the weapons and fighter jets they were using in this conflict were purchased from China. So that's, you know, there's sort of an interesting superpower conflict dynamic happening in this sort of smaller conflict as well.

Jane Coston (10:22)

Yeah, I think it really goes to how President Trump campaigned on a platform of isolationism and moving away from the idea of the US as kind of a world police. But it seems like the world keeps getting complicated. And given what we just saw with the terrorist attacks in Kashmir and the conflict that's followed. And is any. Is that kind of isolationism at all possible? I feel like this is a good example of how isolationism, It's a great idea for some people, but then. Then the world happens.

Joshua Keating (10:49)

Yeah, I mean, it's, you know, it's A weird thing to say but in some ways like India and Pakistan have some practice at this, at this point. Like they, they sort of know how to fight these small scale wars without it escalating into a full scale war, which in this case could mean a nuclear war. These countries have over 300 nuclear warheads between them. So you know, it's one thing to say this isn't our responsibility, we don't have a dog in this fight as, as J.D. vance did. But you know, if you're getting intelligence about this thing is escalating out of control, you know, that's something the US by necessity has to get involved with and, and to their credit did in this instance. They do seem to have played some role. It was interesting to note the Pakistani statement about the ceasefire mentioned and credited the US role. The Indian side did not. And it seems as if the Indians may not have wanted it to appear as if they were being restrained by the US side, as if they were being sort of pulled back by pressure.

Jane Coston (11:54)

By the U.S. josh, this has been so helpful. Thank you so much for joining us.

Joshua Keating (11:59)

Thank you. Anytime.

Jane Coston (12:00)

That was my conversation with Joshua Keating, senior correspondent for Vox covering national security and foreign policy. We'll link to his work in our show notes. We'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. Whataday is brought to you by Deleteme. Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online. At a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable, it is easier than ever to find personal information about people online. Seriously, just Google yourself. Having your address, phone number and family members names hanging out on the Internet can have actual consequences in the real world and makes everyone vulnerable. With Deleteme you can protect your privacy or the privacy of your business from doxxing attacks before sensitive information can be exploited. As someone with an active online presence, privacy is really important to me. I want to know what information is out there and what information I can keep off there. Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Deleteme now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to JoinDeleteMe.com wad and use promo code WAD at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to JoinDeleteMe.com wad and enter code wad at checkout. That's JoinDeleteMe.com wad code wad what if.

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Jane Coston (15:08)

Here's what else we're following today.

Joshua Keating (15:10)

Head of Lines.

Jane Coston (15:14)

We do want trade. We want more balanced trade, and I think that both sides are committed to achieving that. Feel the excitement. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant announced that the US And China have agreed to temporarily slash their tariffs on each other for 90 days. The US will lower its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30%, down from 145, and China will lower its tariffs on US goods to 10%, down from 125. This comes after a weekend of trade negotiations between US and Chinese officials in Switzerland. Besant detailed the agreement Monday at a press conference in Geneva with his textbook flair. The consensus from both delegations this weekend is neither side wants a decoupling and what had occurred with these very high tariffs, as Ambassador Greer said, was the equivalent of an embargo. And neither side wants that. The very high tariffs Donald Trump put in place, neither side wanted those, huh? The reduced tariffs will take effect Wednesday, but Much to the dismay of frequent online shoppers like me, Monday's agreement does not reinstate the de minimis exemption for e commerce packages from China. That's provision that allows small, low value goods into the US without tariffs. Online foreign retailers like Shein and Temu relied on that loophole to sell goods to Americans for cheap, but Trump ended it for Chinese goods earlier this year. A White House official told Axios Monday that small packages from China will still be subject to a 120% tariff. Starting today, the United States will no longer subsidize the health care of foreign countries. President Trump signed an executive order Monday aimed at reducing the cost of prescription drugs for Americans. Sort of. I think most of us here in the US can agree we pay a lot more than we probably should for prescription drugs. But this order is little more than a pretty please to drug makers, asking them to voluntarily lower their prices in the next 30 days. Good luck with that, Mr. President. And I genuinely mean that if drug companies don't lower their prices. The order directs administration officials to create a new rule to tie drug prices in the US to lower prices other countries pay, kind of like price matching, but that falls way short of actually instituting that policy, as Trump said he would do in a truth social post this weekend. The president warned of other consequences if drug makers don't comply with the order during a speech at the White House Monday. If necessary, we'll investigate the drug companies and we'll in particular investigate the countries that are doing this and we will add it onto the price that we charge them for doing business in America. In other words, we'll add it on to tariffs if they don't do what is right. When is this man going to learn that tariffs aren't the solution to everything he doesn't like? It's also very unclear if the administration has the legal authority to enforce the order. Plus, Trump tried and failed to institute a similar policy to lower some drug prices during his first term. The courts blocked it. In statements Monday, lobbying groups that represent drug makers largely dismissed the White House order as bad for patients. Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley has a lot to say about the ongoing talks over Trump's Big beautiful spending bill, specifically proposed cuts to Medicaid. Hawley wrote an op ed titled Don't Cut Medicaid that appeared in the New York Times on Monday. He wrote a wing of his party, quote, wants Republicans to build our big beautiful bill around slashing health insurance for the working poor. But that argument is both morally wrong and politically suicidal. This is a real worst guy, you know, has a great point moment for me. Medicaid is a health insurance program run by the federal government and states that covers more than 70 million Americans, mainly poor people. Hawley's criticism comes after House Republicans released a plan late Sunday. The House Energy and Commerce Committee has been tasked with removing $880 billion in funding from programs it overse. The lion's share of that reduction was taken from health care programs, an estimated $715 billion. But why? For tax breaks, of course. An analysis from the Congressional Budget Office says it estimates the legislation would reduce the number of people with health insurance by at least 8.6 million in 2034. Hawley echoed this issue. He says about a fifth of the people in his state benefit from Medicaid and another insurance program for lower income children. And if Congress implements the cuts, Missourians will lose their health care and hospitals will close. And of course, cuts to Medicaid would impact the entire American health care system. Still, Republicans are working to pass their spending bill for President Trump's sweeping agenda by Memorial Day. But Trump has promised not to make cuts to Medicaid. The panel is set to discuss the proposal today. Idan Alexander, an Israeli American who was held hostage by Hamas, was reunited with his family on Monday. Head to our YouTube channel to see Alexander and his family happily reunited. Hamas abducted Alexander on October 7th and released him after more than 19 months in captivity. The Israel Defense Forces said it was a result of successful negotiations between the US And Hamas. Alexander is the last known living American hostage that was held in Gaza. In a statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Alexander's return home. He says there this was achieved thanks to our military pressure and the diplomatic pressure applied by President Trump. This is a winning combination. The release of Alexander, a dual Israeli American national who was serving in the Israeli army, came just before President Trump's trip to the Middle East. Hamas said in a statement Monday night it's ready to re up negotiations to reach a ceasefire. Some people have criticized the Israeli government for its handling of negotiations and expressed concern for the other hostages. They suggested Alexander was released because the US Advocated state specifically for its own citizens. Israel says Hamas still has more than 50 hostages. About half are believed to be living. And that's the news. One more thing. Let's talk about words. Specifically one obscenity. Sometimes when we're talking about obscenity, we're talking about swearing. Other times we're talking about art, film, music, or you guessed it, pornography. Yes, I'm discussing pornography on the podcast again. Famously, what counts as obscene is really hard to determine. Like, really hard. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said in a 1964 case aiming to determine whether or not a French film was obscene, that with obscenity, I know it when I see it. But Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee says he knows what obscenity is, and he thinks you should just let him determine what's obscene and what's not. Last Thursday, Lee and Illinois Republican Representative Mary Lee unveiled the Interstate Obscenity Definition act because, as he said in the statement, quote, obscenity isn't protected by the First Amendment. But hazy and unenforceable legal definitions have allowed extreme pornography to saturate American society and reach countless children. In general, I find that a what about the Children? Act of Congress rarely ends well for children or adults. Currently, we use something called the Miller test to determine whether or not a piece of content is obscene, stemming from the 1973 Supreme Court case Miller v. California. Per the Miller test, obscene content needs to appeal to prurient interests, as in the content is for horny purposes. Obscene content also needs to depict or describe sexual acts in a patently offensive way. And the content needs to lack serious literary, artistic, political, or scientific value. How do courts determine what content has or doesn't have serious literary, artistic, or political value? The law asks whether or not the average person using, quote, average community standards would find the content to be obscene or not. The Supreme Court argued that what people in Las Vegas think is fine and cool might not fly with people in, say, Biloxi, Mississippi. But Senator Mike Lee thinks he knows better than the Supreme Court, or you, for that matter. In his proposed legislation, the community standard test is gone. And obscenity doesn't need to appeal to prurian interests to be obscene anymore. Instead, the new law would argue that anything that depicts, describes, or represents actual or simulated sexual acts with the objective intent to arouse, titillate or gratify the sexual desires of a person is obscene and thus can be targeted by law enforcement. As Senator Lee has made clear, the aim of the bill is to destroy the online pornography industry. And maybe you think that's a good idea, but I don't. Not because online pornography is always awesome, it isn't. But because this legislation is, to put it bluntly, broad as hell. For one thing, what is an objective intent to arouse? Did Game of Thrones nude brothel scenes have an objective intent to arouse? I don't know. Maybe. Should the makers and producers and actors of Game of Thrones go to prison for selling and distributing the show, no matter how bad the series finale was. No. And let's be real here. As Ricky Joy Levy, president and CEO of the Woodhull Freedom foundation, which focuses on sexual rights and freedoms, told Reason magazine, this legislation would most likely be used to go after people who make content about LGBTQ people. Because if we've learned anything from the recent fights over movies and library books, there are many people who think an LGBTQ person doing anything ever counts as obscene. So no, I do not think that a Republican Congress led by a Utah Republican should get to determine what obscenity is. And personally, I can think of a few obscenities I'd use for someone who does before we go After Trump won in 2016, it was clear waiting around wasn't an option. That's why Crooked Media was started, and why Amanda Lippman co founded Run for Something, an organization that helps young candidates run for local office and actually win. And in her new book, when we're in the Next Generation's Guide to Leadership, which is out now, Amanda shares what it looks like when a new generation steps into power, not just in politics, but in business, activism and everyday life. The book is a manual for leadership on your own terms. No fluff, no gatekeeping, no losing yourself in the process. Just real tools, honest lessons, and the kind of clarity today's future leaders actually need. Get your copy of When we're in charge@crooked.com booksnow or wherever you get your books. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, read more books, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, and not just about how seriously Americans broadly say they want to read more books, but just 51% of Americans have read a book in the last month. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe@crooked.com subscribe I'm Jane Coston and read a book. It won't yell at you in a tab on your laptop you can't find and it might make you mad, but in a longer form, easier to digest kind of way. Water Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Raven Yamamoto and Emily Foer. Our producer is Michelle Aloy. We had production help today from Johanna Case, Joseph Dutra, Greg Walters, and Julia Claire. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our executive producer is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

C (28:02)

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