What A Day – “Dems Win Big: A Midterm Preview?” (November 5, 2025)

Host: Jane Coaston (A)
Guest: Jon Favreau, Pod Save America co-host (C)

Overview

This episode covers a sweeping night of Democratic victories in key 2025 elections nationwide. Jane Coaston guides listeners through the significance of these wins as signals for the upcoming midterm elections, focusing on major flips and upsets in New York (the mayoral race), Virginia (the governor’s race), New Jersey, Georgia, and California. She’s joined by Jon Favreau for in-depth analysis on what these results mean for the Democratic Party's messaging, especially around affordability, and how the GOP’s culture wars and ties to Trump may be faltering.

Major Themes and Takeaways

• Democrats Post Big Wins: From New York City’s mayoralty to Virginia’s governorship, Democrats gained ground, often with historic candidates.
• Affordability and Economic Issues Dominate: The need for solutions to rising costs—especially energy—united winning Democratic candidates across ideological lines.
• Redistricting and Down-Ballot Races Matter: Victories that affect legislative control and policy direction (e.g., Prop 50 in California, Georgia’s PSC) were highlighted as consequential for the coming years.
• GOP Culture War Strategy Stalls: Multiple guests note that Republican attacks on trans rights and “wokeism” were largely ineffective compared to voters’ economic anxieties.
• Trump’s Shadow Looms and Hurts GOP: The close alignment with Trump, or even tepid efforts to distance from him, did not help Republicans; Trump’s inability to deliver on economic promises rebounded on them.

Key Segments

New York City: Mayoral Shift (00:02–04:00)

• Zoram Mamdani elected as the first Muslim and person of South Asian descent, and the youngest mayor of New York in a century.
• Cuomo’s fall: Andrew Cuomo’s independent comeback bid failed spectacularly, despite high-profile endorsements and divisive tactics.
• Mamdani’s coalition: High turnout among young people, immigrants, and South Asian voters seeking an affordable, inclusive city.
• Memorable Quote:

  "Let tonight be the final time I utter his name as we turn the page on a politics that abandons the many and answers only to the few." – Zoram Mamdani (01:09)

• Memorable Quote:

  "So hear me, President Trump, when I say this: to get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us." – Zoram Mamdani, victory speech (03:20)

Virginia: Democrats Sweep (04:00–11:50)

• Abigail Spanberger wins governor’s seat, becoming Virginia’s first female governor, and leading a decisive Democratic wave.
• GOP’s missteps: Focus on trans issues and culture wars failed, especially amid a federal shutdown and economic concerns.
• Key Analysis:

  "Democrats should not cave on the shutdown. From the turnout and the margins, people are pretty pissed and they're definitely blaming Donald Trump and Republicans for it." – Jon Favreau (11:08)

• Spanberger’s improvement on past Dem performance, flipping key counties.
• Quote on GOP strategy:

  "[Sears] put millions of dollars into attack ads against Spanberger for supporting trans rights... Turns out, that was not top of mind for most people." – Jane Coaston (11:20)

New Jersey: Sherrill Holds the Line (04:00, 15:23–18:34)

• Mikey Sherrill, moderate Democrat and former Navy officer, wins governorship, holding off Trump-backed Jack Cittarelli.
• Despite worries of Republican inroads since Trump’s improved showing in 2024, Democrats over-performed polling.
• Big lesson:
  Democrats held the governorship despite “three-peat” historical headwinds, due to Trump’s unpopularity in the state.
• Quote:

  "You will never see that from Republicans right now. Like, every Republican either is terrified of Trump or wants to, like, hug him and pat his head." – Jane Coaston (17:47)

Georgia and California: Statewide Shifts (21:12–22:19)

• Georgia: Dems flip two seats on the Public Service Commission, breaking a 20-year losing streak, fueled by outrage over rising power bills.
• California: Prop 50 passes, empowering Democrats to redraw legislative maps—a direct move to counter GOP gerrymandering.
• Quote:

  "Georgia races were probably, like, electorally maybe the most impressive wins of the night... statewide races, they knocked off two Republican commissioners and by like double digits." – Jon Favreau (21:44)

Analysis: Nationwide Implications

What Do These Results Mean for 2026?

• Affordability is the Core Message: Winning Dems, from socialist Mamdani to moderates Spanberger and Sherrill, made economic security central to their campaigns.
  • Quote:

    "Is it just—it’s affordability, stupid? Like, is that the message that Democrats should be running under?" – Jane Coaston (19:39)

  • Answer:

    "Yes. Yes, it is... At the core here, again, Donald Trump won in 2024 because people were pissed that Joe Biden did not manage the economy well... [but] Trump came into office... [and] made it worse." – Jon Favreau (19:40–20:49)

• Effective Campaigning: Mamdani’s relational, in-person strategy, crossing communities and listening to Trump voters, is praised.
  • Quote:

    "He went to these neighborhoods... he talks to all these Trump voters... He didn't scold them. He didn't yell at them. He just wanted to have these conversations." – Jon Favreau (08:42)

• Republican Struggles: Attempts to replicate national culture war grievances fell flat with voters prioritizing basic living costs and economic recovery.
• Turnout Signals: Exceptionally high engagement in off-year races (e.g., NYC’s highest since 1969) bodes well for energetic midterm participation.
• Democratic Future: Results in Georgia, Pennsylvania, California, and other battlegrounds indicate Dems have momentum and viable paths—even in traditional GOP strongholds.

Notable Quotes by Segment

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |---|---|---| | 01:09 | Zoram Mamdani | "Let tonight be the final time I utter [Cuomo's] name as we turn the page on a politics that abandons the many and answers only to the few." | | 03:20 | Zoram Mamdani | "So hear me, President Trump, when I say this, to get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us." | | 07:44 | Jon Favreau | "He, especially of all the candidates, really honed in on that message [affordability] and hammered it pretty hard." | | 08:42 | Jon Favreau | "[Mamdani] went to these neighborhoods... he talks to all these Trump voters... He didn't scold them. He didn't yell at them. He just wanted to have these conversations." | | 11:08 | Jon Favreau | "Democrats should not cave on the shutdown... turnout and margins show people are pretty pissed and definitely blaming Donald Trump and Republicans." | | 17:47 | Jane Coaston | "You will never see that from Republicans right now. Like, every Republican either is terrified of Trump or wants to, like, hug him and pat his head." | | 19:40 | Jane Coaston | "Is it just—it's affordability, stupid?... Is that the message that Democrats should be running under?" | | 20:49 | Jon Favreau | "Trump came into office and... made it worse... what are you doing, man?" | | 21:44 | Jon Favreau | "Those Georgia races were probably, like, electorally maybe the most impressive wins of the night..." |

Bellwethers and Looking Ahead (22:19–23:37)

• High Democratic turnout bodes well for 2026.
• Down-ballot races in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania hint at further flipping opportunities and energized bases.
• Challenge remains: Dems, to take back the Senate, must keep up turnout and win in challenging states, but tonight’s results provide a “little closer” push in that direction.

Memorable and Characteristic Moments

• Jane’s recurring wit: e.g., “I'm sure beautiful Destin, Florida will welcome [the billionaires] with open arms.” (03:33)
• Favreau on the Trump era: “He didn’t deliver on [affordability/economic] promises... The whole thing he got elected for from people who aren’t part of his base, he didn’t deliver on.” (12:36–12:42)
• The banter over campaign styles—"not creepy AI videos posted on the Internet... or with just outright Islamophobia." (09:20)

Useful Timestamps

• 00:02–04:00 New York City, Zoram Mamdani’s win and speech
• 04:00–06:13 Other Democratic victories overview (NJ, Virginia, GA, CA)
• 06:13–09:30 Interview: Jon Favreau on Mamdani’s campaign lessons
• 09:30–12:42 Virginia’s race and Democratic lessons from Spanberger’s win
• 15:23–18:34 New Jersey breakdown and discussion of GOP/Trump effect
• 19:39–20:49 Central importance of affordability/economics
• 21:12–22:19 Georgia Public Service Commission, California Prop 50
• 22:19–23:37 Bellwether reflections, 2026 midterm implications

Final Thoughts

This episode captures a historic night for Democrats, with the emerging consensus that affordability and economic relief are uniting voters across blue, purple, and red states. The Party's effectiveness at combining moderate and progressive appeals—and the GOP’s overreliance on divisive national culture wars—shaped electoral outcomes. The show’s tone remains sharp, witty, and deeply informed, making this recap a valuable primer on where 2026 may be heading.