What A Day: “Don't Bank On Trump's Tax Cuts”

Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Vanessa Williamson (Brookings Institution)
Date: February 19, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of What A Day critically examines President Donald Trump’s claims about big tax refunds during the 2025-2026 tax season, analyzing how recent IRS upheaval, political strategies, and policy shifts influence everyday taxpayers. Host Jane Coaston and guest Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, explore the real impact of Trump's tax cuts, the fallout from IRS understaffing, and the problematic sharing of taxpayer data with ICE. The episode also touches on current news, including economic debates over tariffs and increased federal immigration enforcement at Arizona polling places.

Main Discussion: The State of the IRS and Trump's Tax Refund Promises

Trump’s Big Tax Refund Strategy

• The Trump administration is touting 2026 as potentially the largest tax refund season ever, promising “a nice dividend” to Americans (01:16).
• However, these refunds, according to reporting, will primarily benefit middle and upper-middle income households.
• Jane Coaston: “There are more than a few problems with this ‘give everyone money to make them vote for us’ plan.” (01:35)

IRS Upheaval: Staffing Crisis and Its Impact

• Vanessa Williamson: “We lost a quarter of IRS workforce and more than three quarters of senior leadership. And that's not political positions. That's people who are career civil servants who've been there for decades...” (03:04)
• Due to these losses, there are not enough trained people to answer taxpayers’ questions, leading to long delays and less effective service.
• Vanessa Williamson: “For some really important positions, they've only hired about 2% of the staff that they need.” (03:33)
• Coaston likens this to “the delays we saw at Social Security last summer.” (04:15)
• Fewer personnel also means reduced capacity to spot tax fraud or identity theft.

The Tax Gap: Unintended Consequences

• Understaffing hampers enforcement, likely increasing the tax gap—the difference between what taxpayers owe and what is collected.
• Vanessa Williamson: “It’s very, very likely to grow because... enforcement’s going to be in decline.” (04:52)
• This gap—estimated at $700 billion—mostly results from wealthy individuals underreporting income.

IRS Service Disruptions & Loss of Public Trust

• IRS had begun rolling out Direct File (free, public tax prep) and “pre-pop” services (having the IRS pre-fill your data), but those initiatives have been halted.
• Williamson: “That’s one of the many things that was shut down this year. So, yeah, the frustrations will continue, I’m afraid.” (06:08)
• The IRS’s recent agreement to share taxpayer data with ICE is a “massive betrayal of trust,” impacting immigrants and undermining longstanding assurances of privacy.
• Data-sharing was “illegal” according to many civil servants, who either opposed or resigned over it.
  Williamson: “We betrayed that trust this year...An extraordinary loss.” (07:03)
• The breach affected at least 47,000 but possibly thousands more taxpayers after an error.

Are Refunds Really Bigger? Political Rhetoric vs. Reality

Mechanisms Behind the Tax Refunds

• Williamson: “When you have a larger refund, it means that the IRS was withholding more than they should have been...A lot of it this year is because they didn’t update things, because the bill came through late... So maybe your refund will be larger.” (08:19)
• But, she warns, “don’t expect too much...the benefits look sparkly and shiny. They're probably a little smaller than you expect.” (09:23)
• Overhyping refunds also aids tax scammers preying on hopeful recipients.

Have Other Presidents Used Refunds as Political Tools?

• Both George Bush and Barack Obama attempted similar strategies, but most Americans “forget really fast.”
• Williamson: “People didn’t remember it. After a year, nine out of 10 people had forgotten it happened.” (10:05)
• The general public rarely connects their tax refund or liability with policy changes.

Who Actually Benefits?

• Primarily the wealthy.
• Williamson: “This was the most regressive tax policy ever in the history of our income tax...The bulk of this money went to the people at the very, very top.” (10:54)

Practical Advice for Taxpayers

• Vanessa Williamson’s tips:
  • Do your taxes early—reduces chances for scammers to file on your behalf.
  • Early filing leads to faster refunds and less competition for IRS attention.
  • Be wary of tax preparers promising unusually large refunds.
  • Pay attention to the tax code; these “boring and arcane” decisions have real impacts on inequality and the economy. (11:31–12:22)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Jane Coaston (00:14): “The show that learned President Donald Trump was hosting a Black History Month event on Wednesday and thought, I wonder how stupid it will be.”
• Williamson (03:04): “We lost a quarter of IRS workforce and more than three quarters of senior leadership...an enormous amount of experience.”
• Williamson (07:03): “We betrayed that trust this year. The amount of damage we've done to public perceptions of the security of their tax data this year is an extraordinary loss.”
• Williamson (09:23): “Be very, very careful about picking a tax preparer who says they’re going to get you some huge refund this year because I think it’s been oversold.”
• Williamson (10:54): “This was the most regressive tax policy ever in the history of our income tax...the bulk of this money went to the people at the very, very top.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:30 – Trump’s tax refund promises and administration logic
• 03:04 – Vanessa Williamson on IRS staffing collapse
• 04:52 – The growing tax gap and declining IRS enforcement
• 06:08 – Direct File, “pre pop,” and IRS data-sharing with ICE
• 08:19 – Why refunds might be bigger (or not) this year
• 10:05 – Do Americans notice or remember tax refund changes?
• 10:54 – The real (wealthy) beneficiaries of Trump’s tax cuts
• 11:31 – Practical tax advice for listeners

Additional News Briefs

• Tariffs Hitting Consumers:
  Federal Reserve paper reveals 90% of tariff costs fell on US consumers/businesses, contradicting Trump’s narrative. (16:15–17:25)
• Meta in Court:
  Mark Zuckerberg testifies in a trial over alleged deliberate addictiveness of Instagram.
• ICE at Arizona Polls:
  Arizona Senate considers federal immigration presence at polling places, stoking voter suppression concerns.

Episode Tone

The tone is sharply critical, witty, and direct—freely calling out hypocrisy (“I wonder how stupid it will be”), lacing analysis with skeptical humor, and emphasizing the real-world human impacts of bureaucratic and political decisions. The conversation never shies away from calling policies out as “regressive” or “oversold,” staying engaged and empathetic to the challenges faced by everyday taxpayers.