Has The West Forgotten About Ukraine?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: What A Day

Episode: Has The West Forgotten About Ukraine?

Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Lucien Kim, Senior Ukraine Analyst, International Crisis Group
Date: May 19, 2026

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Overview

This episode delves into the prolonged and evolving war in Ukraine, questioning whether Western nations—particularly the US under President Trump—are losing focus and resolve in supporting Ukraine as the conflict drags into its fifth year. Jane Coaston interviews Lucien Kim, who has just returned from Ukraine, to discuss the state of the war, the motivations of Ukraine and Russia, innovations on the ground, and the prospects for peace negotiations in a world distracted by other crises.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Current State in Ukraine

• Dual Realities in Kyiv
  • Lucien Kim describes Ukraine's capital as both vibrantly alive by day and living under constant threat of missile and drone attacks by night (02:39).
    • Memorable moment: Kim recounts sleepless nights due to air-raid alarms, underlining how ordinary life and warfare coexist uneasily.

2. The War’s Unexpected Longevity

• Outlasting Historical Precedents
  • The war has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s campaign against Nazi Germany (03:15).
  • Putin’s original plan was for a quick “special military operation” with an expected rapid victory—an enormous miscalculation:
    • “He thought he was just going to rol[l] Ukraine, decapitate the Zelensky government and install a puppet regime in no time…He had basically convinced himself after repeating it enough times that Ukrainians and Russians were one people in his, in his words.” — Lucien Kim (03:41)

3. Motivations and Misjudgments

• Putin’s Misreading
  • Putin relied on faulty intelligence and operated in an echo chamber, believing Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces.
• Strategic Importance of Ukraine
  • Ukraine’s value to Russia: Breadbasket, industrial powerhouse, and an essential part of the Russian sphere (05:20).
  • Kim: “We need to…re establish control [over Ukraine] before Ukraine…join[s] Europe or the Americans.” (05:20)

4. Shift in the Battlefield

• Ukrainian Resilience

  • Despite expectations, Ukraine has survived and innovated, notably developing its own indigenous drone industry to counter Russia (06:32).
    • “They have managed to survive. They consolidated as a nation... despite the fact that the Trump administration has more or less turned its back on Ukraine, they have started their own indigenous drone industry and have really innovated on, on an incredible scale.” — Lucien Kim (06:32)

• Recent Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Territory

  • Ukraine recently launched one of its largest drone strikes on the Moscow region.

5. Western Disengagement and US Politics

• Trump Administration Shift

  • Trump campaigned on ending Ukraine’s war “on day one,” but the conflict continues, and his administration is now heavily focused on the new war in Iran (00:59, 07:30).
  • Quote: “Ending wars is hard. And now he’s wrapped up in his own war in Iran.” — Jane Coaston (07:30)

• Ukraine’s Response to Lower US Support

  • Zelensky tries to tie Iran and Russia together publicly to get attention from the US, and courts new alliances and technology in the Middle East (07:51).
    • “What he was really trying to do was put Iran and Russia in the same bag…to illustrate it to Trump that these guys are actually in the same camp.” — Lucien Kim (07:51)

• Negotiation Prospects

  • Zelensky has invited Trump’s negotiators but expectations for real talks are low: “Nobody in Kyiv right now is expecting the negotiations to pick up anytime soon.” — Lucien Kim (09:37)

6. Peace Terms: A Chasm Between Russia and Ukraine

• What Russia Wants

  • It’s not just about territorial gain but Ukraine’s subordination to Russia for Putin’s historical legacy (09:55, 10:34).
    • “Putin is not going to rest until Ukraine is subordinated. I think everybody in Ukraine understands this…he wants to be remembered as the Russian leader who reconquered Ukraine and who did not lose Ukraine. So this is really an obsession…” — Lucien Kim (10:34)

• What Ukraine Wants

  • For Ukrainians, it’s a war of survival. While some dream of recapturing all 1991 borders, the current hope is at best a freezing of the front lines (10:34-11:52).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Misjudgment at the Start:

  • “He [Putin] was getting a lot of poor intelligence. He was being told by his intelligence services things that he wanted to hear.” — Lucien Kim (03:41)

• On Ukrainian Innovation:

  • “It’s actually close to miraculous what the Ukrainians have pulled off.” — Lucien Kim (06:32)

• On US Political Dynamics:

  • “Ending wars is hard. And now he’s wrapped up in his own war in Iran.” — Jane Coaston (07:30)

• On the Futility of Peace Talks Right Now:

  • “Nobody in Kyiv right now is expecting the negotiations to pick up anytime soon.” — Lucien Kim (09:37)

• On Putin’s Motives:

  • “Putin is at this stage in his career as Russia’s leader to understand that he’s thinking of his historical legacy and he wants to be remembered as the Russian leader who reconquered Ukraine and who did not lose Ukraine.” — Lucien Kim (10:34)

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Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment / Topic | |-----------|---------------------------------------------| | 00:59 | Trump’s priorities and the ongoing war | | 02:22 | Interview with Lucien Kim begins | | 02:39 | Kim’s on-the-ground experience in Ukraine | | 03:41 | Putin’s initial strategy and motivations | | 05:20 | Ukraine’s importance to Russia (history/strategy) | | 06:10 | Ukraine’s resilience and recent drone attacks| | 07:30 | US political disengagement and negotiations | | 09:55 | What Russia and Ukraine really want | | 11:52 | Interview concludes |

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Additional Segments (News Roundup)

• US/Iran War Update: Trump calls off a military strike on Iran, citing hopes for a diplomatic deal urged by Middle Eastern allies (15:30).
• Polymarket Betting Scandal: Data analytics firm Bubble Maps uncovers a pattern of anonymous users making millions betting on US military operations (16:01).
• Trump DOJ Announcements: New “anti-weaponization fund” to compensate Trump supporters allegedly targeted by previous administrations (16:56).
• US-Greenland Relations: Secret negotiations hint at increased US influence and military presence in Greenland (17:23).
• Trump’s Plummeting Poll Numbers: New all-time low job approval—only 37% approve of Trump’s presidency, driven by war and domestic controversies (17:23).

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Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering update on Ukraine’s struggle, revealing a country battered but innovating and persisting, even as Western attention drifts. The gulf between what Russia and Ukraine want from any peace suggests a stalemate, with neither side close to terms the other could accept. Lucien Kim’s firsthand reporting and insight make clear that, even as the world’s attention shifts, the war’s daily toll remains immense.

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Transcript

[Jane Coston]

Foreign It's Tuesday, May 19th. I'm Jane Coston and this is what a day. The show that totally agrees with Vice President J.D. vance. Here he is speaking in Kansas City on Monday.

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[Lucien Kim]

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[Jane Coston]

Mr. Vice President, On today's show, President Donald Trump's approval rating is down in the dumps. And we get new insight on anonymous betters profiting from war. But let's start with Russia's war on Ukraine. When he was on the campaign trail, Trump said he'd end the conflict on day one back in office, which didn't happen. But hope springs eternal for Trump, I guess. Remember back in March of this year after the start of Trump's war in Iran, when the president told reporters that Russia's war in Ukraine was, quote, very high on his priority list.

[Donald Trump]

I thought this was going to be much easier than it is. It's very, there's tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelensky. Tremendous hatred. I've seen a lot of hatred in my life, but I think this is about top scale. I believe it's going to happen.

[Jane Coston]

No such luck. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In a speech given that same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the, quote, special military operation was to rescue the people of Ukraine's Donb region who, quote, suffer from abuse and genocide from the Kyiv regime. Russian state media argued that the war would last just weeks, if not days. But four years later, Ukraine and Russia are still at War. Over 300,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, compared to roughly 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The number of civilian deaths is harder to track, but we do know that at least 15,000 Ukrainians have died. Russian state news says that more than 1,000 Russian civilians have been killed since the war began. This war has been brutal and deadly and it seems like it just keeps going. So how can both sides end this conflict? And what will the US do to help or hurt the peace process? To find out, I spoke to Lucien Kim. He's the senior Ukraine analyst for the International Crisis Group. When we spoke, he had recently returned from an 11 day trip to Ukraine. Lucian, welcome to what a day.

[Lucien Kim]

Great to be here, Jane.

[Jane Coston]

Russia's war against Ukraine started more than four years ago. And at this point, I feel like I've heard Trump say the war is almost over or that PCL imminent a bunch of times. But you just got back from a trip to Ukraine last week. What's it, like on the ground, you

[Lucien Kim]

know, it's, it's, it's kind of two different feelings. On one hand, it's a bustling big city with a lot of life going on. And the disconcerting thing is that at night there are often air raid alarms and Russian drones, often missiles strike Kyiv and other big cities. And that's what makes the whole thing so surreal. You think you're in an, in just a normal European city, yet you often have sleepless nights. And there was a, there was a devastating attack right after I left last week that killed 24 people in Kyiv.

[Jane Coston]

I want to back up for a second because I remember reading last week that Russia's war against Ukraine has lasted longer than the Soviet Union's war against Nazi Germany. And that was something I studied for a very long time. So it's just wild to me to think that this has lasted that long. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in February of 2022 as a special military operation, how did Putin think this would go?

[Lucien Kim]

Well, you know, you're using air quotes to say special military operation and many people think it's a euphemism. In fact, he thought it was a special military operation. He thought that he could get the job done, if not in a couple of days, then no more than a few weeks. He thought he was just going to rol Ukraine, decapitate the Zelenskyy government and install a puppet regime in no time. Why did he make this great miscalculation? Well, most of all, he was getting a lot of poor intelligence. He was being told by his intelligence services things that he wanted to hear. And he has, you know, he had been already in power for more than 20 years at that point and he had a very small circle of advisors and they were also, he was in an echo chamber. And things that were, he was hearing was that Zelensky, Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, was very unpopular, which was actually true at the time. And he figured that Russian soldiers would be received as, and welcomed as liberators. And as we know now, that was a grave miscalculation. He had basically convinced himself after repeating it enough times that Ukrainian, Ukrainians and Russians were one people in his, in his words.

[Jane Coston]

And what was his thinking after taking, basically taking over Ukraine? What was his plan after installing this puppet regime in Ukraine? Like, what next?

[Lucien Kim]

Well, Ukraine occupies a very special place in not only Vladimir Putin's mind, but in the mind of many Russians. So they, they believe that Ukraine is essential for some Russian led civilization that this is. It was. Ukraine played a key role in the Russian empire as a breadbasket, as an industrial powerhouse, and later in this, in the Soviet Union, when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, it was after Russia. It was really the most economically important part of the Soviet Union. So it was this idea that we need to, before Ukraine goes and runs off to join Europe or the Americans, we better stop this once and for all and re establish control.

[Jane Coston]

Well, fast forward four years from 2022, and last weekend, Ukraine pulled off its largest and most deadly attack in the Moscow region using drones. Ukraine is reportedly fending off Russia on the front lines, even winning back some of its territory, and at worst seems to have forced Russia into a stalema. What's changed?

[Lucien Kim]

It's really, you know, unbelievable because as I mentioned, it was supposed to be a special military operation over, you know, in a matter of weeks at the most. And if somebody had said back in 2022 that Ukraine would still be fighting back and that Russians would be feeling drone attacks on their own territory as far away as Moscow or St. Petersburg, nobody would have believed that. So it's actually close to miraculous what the Ukrainians have pulled off. They have managed to survive. They consolidated as a nation, and even though they never got enough Western assistance that they wanted, and despite the fact that the Trump administration has more or less turned its back on Ukraine, they have started their own indigenous drone industry and have really innovated on, on an incredible scale.

[Jane Coston]

Back in 2024, President Trump said he could end this war in 24 hours. It turns out ending wars is hard. And now he's wrapped up in his own war in Iran. Where do peace negotiations go from here? With the US Distracted by its own conflict and as you mentioned, not providing very much assistance to Ukraine at all in the first place, I think the

[Lucien Kim]

Ukrainians realize that they are now on the back burner as far as the Trump administration's attention, and they're trying to make the best of it. So interestingly enough, when the American attack began on Iran, one of the first world leaders to support it on social media was Volodymyr Zelensky. And what he was really trying to do was put Iran and Russia in the same bag, sort of to illustrate it to Trump that these guys are actually in the same camp. The reason for that, of course, is that Iran supplied Russia with its shahed drones early on in the invasion of Ukraine, and that played a critical role. So suddenly these drones were now attacking US Allies in the Gulf and Zelenskyy tried to use the war to gain attention to developments in, in Ukraine's drone industry. And he made a big tour through the, through the Middle east and signed drone agreements with some of the main players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and tried to make the best of it. Of course, you know, there's certain optimism right now in Kyiv, but it's, it's still, it's still a hard war. And, you know, if, if they can get it back on a negotiating track, that would be great. Zelensky has said that he would very much like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to come and visit him in Kiev. Those are, of course, the two Trump negotiators. But let's be realistic. Nobody in Kyiv right now is expecting the negotiations to pick up anytime soon.

[Jane Coston]

Yeah, it seems like what it would take to get Russia and Ukraine on the same page for a peace deal would be very different. What does each party want here? And is it something that they could come to some sort of meeting in the middle on?

[Lucien Kim]

That's a very good question. I mean, what does Russia want? And I think in order to make peace, find peace in Ukraine, it's very important to understand the motivations of the two sides. And for, for Russia, I think there's a misunderstanding. Sometimes there's a. There's this idea that, oh, well, if, if Russia just gets to keep what it. What it invade, they'll be happy with adding four or five new regions to the Russian Federation.

[Jane Coston]

Lucien, I can tell you, I have never thought that. I know that Putin has always admired Peter the Great. I know he does not want four to five new regions.

[Lucien Kim]

Exactly. This is a war of. To subordinate Ukraine. Right. Putin is not going to rest until Ukraine is subordinated. I think everybody in Ukraine understands this. Putin is at this stage in his career as Russia's leader to understand that he's thinking of his historical legacy and he wants to be remembered as the Russian leader who reconquered Ukraine and who did not lose Ukraine. So this is really an obsession for Vladimir Putin. As for the Ukrainians, this is a war of survival. It's as simple as that. Of course, at the beginning of the full scale invasion, the Ukrainians successfully defended the capital, Kyiv, and they actually had a very successful counteroffensive where they regained a lot of their own territory back. And that caused some optimism. And people said, you know, we want to have Ukraine in its original 1991 borders. That, of course, is. I think most people on the ground see that as aspirational. That is something that Ukrainians would like as as sort of for historical justice, but they understand that, you know, in the current circumstances that probably the best they can get is a freezing of the front lines.

[Jane Coston]

Lucien, thank you so much for joining me.

[Lucien Kim]

Thanks so much for having me, Jane.

[Jane Coston]

That was my conversation with Lucien Kim, Senior Ukraine Analyst for the International Crisis Group. This is a podcast that does not try to forecast how long wars are going to last, which is a weird thing to brag about. But hey, if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a 5 star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a Day is brought to you by Zebiotics Pre Alcohol let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is until I found Pre Alcohol Zebiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it when you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on working out without worry. From the crack of the bat at the stadium to the start of wedding season and the roar of the engines in Indy, the May is packed with back to back reasons to be out. Don't let a rough morning after keep you on the sidelines. Drink Pre Alcohol to stay ahead of it and make the most of every Saturday this month. Go to ZBiotics.com wad to learn more and get 15% off your first order. When you use wad at checkout, ZBiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com wad and use the code WAD at checkout for 15% off. What a day is brought to you By Common Power April 29, 2026 we saw the Voting Rights Act Gutted by SCOTUS and our country further unraveled an important thread in our democracy. The first step in regaining the freedoms we've lost is winning control in Congress, and the midterms are exactly how we do that. Common Power is the organizing force, training and deploying volunteers across over 20 battleground states and over 50 races to compete in the most important elections of our lifetime. Again, taking back Congress isn't just about going back to normal. It's about building a new America with leaders who have big ideas like the Voting Rights act when it first passed. This moment requires us to scale, and we need your support in deploying thousands of volunteers to win key races. For those who refuse to sit this moment out, donate [e-mail] crooked when you

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[Jane Coston]

Here's what else we're following today header

[Donald Trump]

lines, and there seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I'd be very happy.

[Jane Coston]

Trump said Monday he's holding off on a military strike in Iran that was planned for today. He told reporters during an event on health care that he was calling off the strike at the request of allies in the Middle east because they feel they are close to a deal with Iran.

[Lucien Kim]

This might be the most insane pattern we have found in Polymarket so far.

[Jane Coston]

Bubble Map CEO Nicholas Viman told 60 Minutes that the data analytics firm made an interesting discovery about several bettors on polymarket.

[Lucien Kim]

We spotted nine polymarket accounts all connected, who made collectively $2.4 million betting almost

[Jane Coston]

exclusively on US military operations, according to Bubble maps. The users placed bets on important dates pertaining to the Iran war. The the accounts won. 98% of 80 bets. The double kicker. The traders are anonymous. Trump's Department of Justice announced that it's creating a 1.776 get it? Billion dollar anti weaponization fund to help those who claim to have been unfairly targeted by previous administrations. Trump defended the DOJ slush fund during Monday's health care event. Why should taxpayers pay for the January?

[Donald Trump]

Well, it's been very well received. I have to tell you, I know very little about it. I wasn't involved in the whole creation of it and the negotiation. But this is reimbursing people that were horribly treated. Horribly treated. It's anti weaponization. They've been weaponized. They've been in some cases imprisoned wrongly. They paid legal fees that they didn't have. They've gone bankrupt. Their lives have been destroyed and they turn out to be right.

[Jane Coston]

Very well received. And yet he knows very little about it. Trump's team unveiled the fund after it moved to dismiss its $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS. Trump officials have been holding secret talks with Greenlandic leaders for months about the nation's future. According to the New York Times, local politicians are worried that Trump's team is trying to exert influence over Greenland. Proposals reportedly include allowing American troops to stay in Greenland indefinitely and granting the US Veto power over investment deals from Russia, China and others. Time for one of my favorite comfort Trump's plummeting polling. On Monday, Trump hit an approval rating of 37%, according to a New York Times Siena poll. That's the lowest approval rating from the poll for Trump in either of his terms in office. Why is Trump's polling so low? Let me count the ways. For one thing, the Times reported that just 30% of Americans think Trump's decision to go to war in Iran was a good idea. 31% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the war. It's no wonder then, that for the first time in his second term, Trump's average job approval in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator has fallen below 40%. And speaking of firsts, according to CNN, a majority of white voters without college degrees disapprove of Trump. Ah, the soothing sounds of failure. And that's the news. Before we go. Tickets for CrookedCon 2026 are on sale now. Come hang with us November 5 through 7 in Washington, D.C. for live shows, panels, meetups, and opportunities to learn whatever lessons we'll need post midterms. Cricut's Friends of the Pod subscribers get a subscriber only price, so if you want a subscription loaded with exclusives and a discounted cricutcon ticket, be sure to join Friends of the Pod. There will also be more Friends of the Pod perks at the all day Crooked Con. Get all the info you [e-mail] we can't wait to see you there. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, Leave a review Celebrate Elon Musk losing a lawsuit because of those pesky woke up deadlines and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, not just about how According to the New York Times, a jury ruled on Monday that Musk would lose his $150 billion lawsuit against OpenAI because he didn't file it within the timeline required by law. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Jane Costen and it's always so sad when a man who spends most of his time complaining about the casting decisions of movies he has to hasn't seen loses a lawsuit because he can't get his shit together. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Foer, Erica Morrison and Adrienne Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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