Podcast Summary: What A Day

Episode: "If Not A Recession, Why Does It Feel Like One?"

Host: Todd Zwillick (in for Jane Coaston)
Guest: Stacy Vanek Smith (Bloomberg Businessweek & Everybody’s Business)
Date: November 7, 2025

Overview:

This episode explores the disconnect between positive economic indicators and the widespread feeling among Americans that they’re stuck in a recession. Host Todd Zwillick and guest Stacy Vanek Smith break down why, despite strong jobs numbers and stock markets, so many people are struggling with affordability and uncertainty. They examine the “K-shaped” recovery, the impact of AI, wage stagnation, political messaging, and the complex, emotional "vibes" fueling public sentiment about the economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Political (and Personal) Fixation on Affordability

• Both parties are now talking non-stop about affordability: from the cost of groceries and healthcare, to Thanksgiving turkeys.
• President Trump is especially vocal about lower prices, though Zwillick points out that some of his claims are misleading.
  • Quote:

    "Only problem with these incredible Thanksgiving savings is, you guessed it, they're false."
    — Todd Zwillick (01:53)

• Trump claims a Thanksgiving meal this year will cost 25% less than the previous year's under Biden, referencing Walmart data—but the reality (per Purdue University) is that prices, especially for turkey, are up significantly.

2. The “K-Shaped” Economy: Multiple Realities

• Vanek Smith explains the current economic divergence:

  • Some Americans (investors, tech workers) are thriving as AI and the markets soar.

  • Many others are struggling with rising costs, job precarity, and stagnant wages.

  • Quote:

    “We are not living in one economy right now. I think there are several economies kind of going parallel. And depending on who you are … your experience is just vastly different.”
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (04:29)

• The top 10% of Americans now drive half of all national spending.

• Lower-income workers saw gains during the pandemic, but wage growth has stagnated and inflation has overtaken any progress.

  • Quote:

    "That has completely reversed course now. Those workers tend to be a little more vulnerable … their wages are not keeping up with inflation."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (06:17)

3. AI: Driver and Disruptor

• AI fuels market optimism and upper-tier wealth, but also puts jobs at risk—especially for those in the “lower arm” of the K.

• Uncertainty looms over which jobs will be automated and whether the AI bubble will burst.

  • Quote:

    "We don't really know what AI is going to do. … And if [the market] corrects itself, that could be a really, really dark stretch."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (07:44)

4. The Politics of Economic “Vibes”

• Both parties have experienced a disconnect between positive data and Americans’ lived experiences.

  • Under Biden, officials touted job growth; under Trump, he claims victory on affordability.

• The reality: price increases outpace wage growth, making people feel left behind.

  • Example: Even a 10% wage raise can’t offset tripled egg prices.

  • Quote:

    "Eggs are tripling in price and that's the cheapest form of protein ... a 10% raise isn't going to make up for the amount that we're seeing prices rise across the board."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (09:56)

• Affordability is "the only language Democrats know how to speak," but its electoral power may be overstated.

  • Quote:

    "I think the Democrats need to be a little careful not to spike the football too much because prices are going to do what prices are going to do."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (11:26)

• Economic grievances serve as shorthand for a broader set of vibes—anxieties, insecurities, and fears about the country's direction.

  • Quote:

    "There is something that's not entirely tangible about why our feelings shift. It's like just a vibe. The country's going in a certain direction and it doesn't feel good."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (12:35)

5. What Comes Next?

• The Federal Reserve is prioritizing jobs over fighting inflation, but layoffs are mounting ("almost a million layoffs" recently, per Smith).

• Cutting interest rates may worsen inflation and affordability.

• Price controls or rent freezes sound appealing but have historically failed.

  • Quote:

    "Some of the forces in our economy are pushing prices up and are going to continue to do that."
    — Stacy Vanek Smith (14:14)

Memorable Quotes

• Todd Zwillick:

  "Caring about affordability hits harder when you care about it. From a $300 million gold-plated ballroom." (00:03)

• Donald Trump (quoted by Zwillick):

  "Our Thanksgiving this year coming up will cost 25% less than sleepy Joe Biden's." (01:30)

• Stacy Vanek Smith:

  "We're not living in one economy right now." (04:29) "10% of the population in the country is now fueling half of all the spending." (05:51) "Eggs have gotten more expensive. But I think sometimes these are ... symbolic of other things we're feeling." (11:59) "These are important love languages. Right. We all care about acts of service, eggs, and healthcare." (12:19)

• Todd Zwillick:

  "Politics, like love, is way deeper than the one thing you want to talk about." (12:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–03:25 — Political obsession with prices and affordability: Trump claims, turkey inflation myth-busting.
• 03:54–07:05 — Stacy Vanek Smith explains why it feels like a recession and the “K-shaped” recovery.
• 07:05–08:39 — The AI boom and its uncertain impact on the economy.
• 08:39–12:30 — Political messaging: Data vs. lived experience, and the symbolic weight of affordability.
• 12:35–14:14 — “Vibe session,” public sentiment, and the limits of price controls.
• 14:24–14:54 — Closing: Looking ahead in the economy.

Additional Headlines Segment (17:00–18:32)

• FAA flight cancellations amid a government shutdown, pressure on air traffic controllers.
• Federal judge orders full SNAP (food stamp) benefits for November, opposing Trump's administration withholding attempts.

Notable Moments

• Todd’s irreverent takes (“caring about affordability ... from a $300 million gold-plated ballroom”), a running theme of skeptical humor.
• Stacy’s breakdown of the “K-shaped” recovery gives listeners a visual metaphor for today’s highly unequal economy.
• Direct calling out of politicians: both Trump and Biden face criticism for touting “good numbers” disconnected from people’s realities.
• The idea of “affordability” as a political “love language”—eggs, health care, and rent as political markers.
• The recognition that “it’s just a vibe”—economic anxiety isn’t entirely rational, nor directly tied to any single stat.

Conclusion

This episode gives a nuanced look at why so many Americans feel they’re in a recession—even as headlines and politicians claim otherwise. The conversation cuts through partisan spin and mathematical abstraction, focusing on real people’s experiences and the deep, murky “vibe” influencing how we perceive the economy.
If you want clarity on why affordability remains sensitive and why so many don’t believe the good economic news, this episode is essential listening.