What A Day — "Is This Mamdani's Moment"

Date: October 29, 2025
Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Alex Wagner (host of Crooked Media’s "Runaway Country")

Overview

This episode focuses on the political moment surrounding Zoran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist frontrunner in New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, and the broader implications for Democrats nationwide. Host Jane Coaston and guest Alex Wagner discuss early voting turnout, demographic shifts, high-profile endorsements, the specter of Trump, and whether Mamdani’s campaign strategy offers lessons for the national party.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: NYC’s Mayoral Race

• [00:02] Jane Coaston opens with a witty Halloween analogy, then pivots to discuss the stakes of NYC's mayoral election.
  • Mamdani faces Andrew Cuomo (Independent) and Curtis Sliwa (Republican).
  • Early voting indicates record turnout, with older voters showing up in significant numbers—a trend that may favor Cuomo.

2. Early Voting and Demographics

• [02:26] Early voting trends show the majority of voters are over 55.
  • Alex Wagner: “There is a lot of interest in this mayor's race... Cuomo does better with boomers. So if you're the Cuomo campaign, you're delighted to see a stronger turnout from the 55 plus crew.” ([03:05])
  • Both note, however, that early voting numbers are notoriously misleading.

3. Primary vs General Turnout

• [04:03] Jane: Younger voters played a significant role in the primary, but may not turn out as strongly in the general.
  • Alex: “Older voters... they like voting early. This is what older voters do... I'm not sure how much to read into what the ultimate makeup of the electorate will be on Election Day.” ([04:38])
  • Emphasizes unpredictability, especially with high engagement and a newly energized base.

4. The "Trump Factor"

• [05:19] The influence of national politics and Trump’s shadow loom large.
  • Alex: “…the Trump of it all... is definitely shaping some minds about both for and against Mamdani and for and against Cuomo.” ([05:19])

5. Endorsements — Boon or Liability?

• [06:02] Discussion of establishment endorsements for Mamdani:
  • Jane: Hakeem Jeffries and Governor Kathy Hochul have endorsed. Who benefits?
  • Alex: “It wasn't Kathy Hochul... she mispronounced his name multiple times... I think Hochul needs Mamdani more.” ([06:25])
  • Hochul faces legitimate skepticism from Mamdani supporters, and the endorsements seem more about optics for the endorsers.

6. The "Quiet Cuomo" Voter

• [07:25] Jane asks about a possible silent bloc supporting Cuomo.
  • Alex: “There is a cut of New Yorker who's like, I just don't know about this guy [Mamdani]... the concern that he has become such a ripe target for Trump that it's going to redound to New York City's detriment...” ([08:24])
  • Fear that Mamdani’s win may provoke retaliation from Trump, making NYC collateral damage.

7. Local vs National Lessons

• [09:13] Jane explores whether Mamdani’s success holds lessons for Democrats elsewhere.
  • Polls suggest Mamdani’s appeal is highly local.
  • Alex: “What the Democratic Party needs is big ideas. They need conviction... it's not a time for shrinking violets... I actually don't... think it's a time to be trying to map Zoran Mamdani onto, like, Nebraska.” ([10:01])
  • Mamdani’s messaging and conviction, not his specific policy set, are what Democrats elsewhere could emulate.

8. Building a New Political Archetype

• [10:52] Alex: “This is generational talent. And Democrats would be foolish to try and diminish that talent in the name of trying to find some national media that's going to appeal to everybody... the nuts and bolts of how he's built something different are something I think Democrats can learn from.” ([10:52])

9. Predictions (Or the Refusal Thereof)

• [11:37] Both hosts express reluctance to make predictions: “Anything could happen.”
  • Captures the overall tone of cautious curiosity rather than certainty.

Notable Quotes & Key Moments

• On Older Voters:
  • Alex Wagner: “Cuomo does better with boomers. So if you're the Cuomo campaign, you're delighted to see a stronger Turnout from the 55 plus crew.” ([03:05])
• On Endorsements:
  • Alex Wagner: “It wasn't Kathy Hochul. If you saw the reception she got this week where she mispronounced his name multiple times… I think Hochul needs Mamdani more.” ([06:25])
• On Trump’s Impact:
  • Alex Wagner: “…Trump is going to make New York City lives collateral damage in his war against Mamdani.” ([08:24])
• On Takeaways for Democrats:
  • Alex Wagner: “Democrats would be foolish to try and diminish that talent [Mamdani] in the name of trying to find some national media that's going to appeal to everybody.” ([10:52])
• On Making Predictions:
  • Jane Coaston: “This is why you're one of my favorite people, because you say things like, ‘I'm loathe to predict.’ And I love that, because we don't know. Nobody knows." ([06:02])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:02 – Introduction & Halloween cold open
• 01:39 – Framing the NYC mayoral election
• 02:17–04:03 – Alex Wagner joins; older voters and early turnout
• 04:03–05:18 – Voter turnout breakdown (primary vs general)
• 05:19–06:02 – The Trump effect and election unpredictability
• 06:02–07:25 – The meaning and value of high-profile endorsements
• 07:25–09:13 – The "quiet Cuomo voter" and New York’s unique political climate
• 09:13–11:37 – Can Mamdani’s playbook translate nationally?
• 11:37–11:54 – Closing thoughts and acknowledgements

Tone and Style

• Conversational and thoughtful, with a blend of humor, skepticism, and insider political analysis.
• Alex Wagner’s responses are nuanced, with repeated “caveats” and caution against overgeneralizing or projecting results.

Summary Takeaways

• Massive, diverse turnout is making the NYC mayoral race highly competitive and unpredictable.
• Demographic patterns (strong older voter turnout, uncertain youth engagement) may shift outcome expectations.
• Endorsements may boost politicians more than the candidate, especially if the base is wary of establishment figures.
• National Democrats shouldn’t attempt to carbon-copy Mamdani to other regions but should learn from his strategic authenticity and boldness.
• The Trump factor is omnipresent, raising concerns about backlash should Mamdani win.
• Both Coaston and Wagner urge caution about prognosticating, underlining the volatility of the current political era.

For Further Listening

• Alex Wagner’s podcast, "Runaway Country", for more in-depth takes on political trends and campaign tactics.
• Stay tuned to "What A Day" for more election analyses as the results roll in.