Shutdown Showdown, Part [We've Lost Count]

Summary

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Podcast Summary: What A Day – “Shutdown Showdown, Part [We’ve Lost Count]”

Host: Jane Coaston (Crooked Media)
Guest: Daniella Diaz (Congressional Reporter, Notice)
Date: September 15, 2025
Duration: ~20 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the looming threat of another U.S. federal government shutdown, exploring why this round of negotiations feels markedly different for both parties involved. Host Jane Coaston discusses the complex dynamics at play, the shifting priorities of Democrats and Republicans, and the broader political and real-world implications. The episode also touches on breaking news related to the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk and President Trump’s latest announcement on deploying the National Guard to Memphis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Looming Government Shutdown

• Timeline:
  • Federal funding expires September 30, 2025; a shutdown would begin October 1 if no deal is struck.
• Background:
  • The previous shutdown standoff occurred just months prior, with a temporary deal struck by bipartisan Senate support.
• Current Context:
  • Both parties are more entrenched: Democrats are leveraging their negotiating power to demand an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits, while many Republicans resist substantive compromise.

“If Republicans want to keep the government open, their tiny majority in both chambers of Congress ensures that they’ll need Democrats to sign onto a deal. But Democrats aren’t so inclined to avoid a shutdown this time.”
— Jane Coaston (00:50)

Affordable Care Act Tax Credits

• Without extension, 25 million Americans could see premiums rise 75% (per KFF estimates).

2. Inside the Negotiations: Perspectives from Capitol Hill

Guest: Daniella Diaz, Congressional Reporter

• State of Play:
  • Some Republicans favor a stopgap (“clean” Continuing Resolution), but Democrats insist on concessions, mainly ACA subsidies.
  • Divergence within GOP ranks as “Freedom Caucus” members push for flat spending or cuts, while others advocate for standard appropriations.

“Most [Republicans] want actual appropriations bills… But the really conservative ‘Freedom Caucus’ guys… are going to say, ‘what’s the point of raising funding levels to any department? We want to cut spending.’”
— Daniella Diaz (03:54)

• Democratic Unity/Pressure:
  • Memories of March, when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer facilitated a Republican-favored deal, have heightened party resolve.
  • House Democrats are determined not to “fold again.”

“It seems like Democrats are willing to put up more of a fight this time around.”
— Daniella Diaz (02:33)

3. White House’s “Anomalies List” & the Issue of Kicking the Can

• The Biden administration proposes a longer-term CR through Jan 31, 2026—farther than typical—prompting skepticism about perpetual delay tactics.

“If you know Congress the way I do, Jane, that’s a lot of what they do around here—kick the can down the road.”
— Daniella Diaz (08:04)

• Appropriations Chair View: Some Republicans prefer a shorter-term CR, hoping to add pressure and force substantive negotiations before year-end.

4. Democratic Infighting & The Schumer Dilemma

• Internal Tensions:
  • Progressive voices, including Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy, openly suggest letting a shutdown happen to extract real policy wins.
  • Schumer faces calls from his own party to take a harder line after being “burned” by the last bipartisan deal.

“‘[Schumer] helped Republicans pass a CR with nothing in exchange for it… He feels that pressure this time around. Progressive Democrats have called for him to step aside as leader because of that decision in March.’”
— Daniella Diaz (09:26)

• House Democrats: United behind Hakeem Jeffries, demanding a stronger stance in negotiations.

5. Shutdown Impacts

• What Actually Happens?
  • Federal departments scale back operations; many workers—military included—miss paychecks.
  • Delays in services such as IRS support and student loan processing.

“A lot of departments stop functioning the way you’re used to… You might need to call someone about your student loans and someone’s not going to be on the other line to pick up that call.”
— Daniella Diaz (11:32)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:50 | Jane Coaston | “…Democrats aren’t so inclined to avoid a shutdown this time.” | | 03:54 | Daniella Diaz | “Most [Republicans] want actual appropriations bills…” | | 08:04 | Daniella Diaz | “If you know Congress the way I do, Jane, that’s a lot of what they do around here—kick the can down the road.” | | 09:26 | Daniella Diaz | “Schumer… helped Republicans pass a CR… He feels that pressure this time around.” | | 11:32 | Daniella Diaz | “A lot of departments stop functioning the way you’re used to…” |

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Breaking News Roundup (Headlines)

1. Charlie Kirk Assassination Update (13:06–16:58)

• Utah’s Governor Cox revealed more about the suspect (leftist ideology, evidence provided by roommate/partner).
• National right-wing backlash and online harassment: activists threaten repercussions for anyone seen as celebrating Kirk’s death.
• Charlie Kirk’s organization sees surge in online followers.
• Polarization and online outrage lamented by several right-leaning voices and the governor.

2. Trump and the National Guard in Memphis (18:06–18:45)

• President Trump plans a National Guard deployment to Memphis, drawing predictable partisan responses.
• Mayor Paul Young responds negatively to Trump’s assertion that locals are “happy” about this.

3. Immigration & Deportation Legal Battle (18:45–19:37)

• Judge Tanya Chutkan challenges Trump administration over alleged circumvention of deportation restrictions.

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction & Context (00:02–00:50)
• Shutdown Situation Recap (00:50–02:40)
• Daniella Diaz Interview (Shutdown Negotiations) (02:40–12:20)
• Shutdown Impacts on the Public (11:17–12:15)
• Charlie Kirk Assassination Segment (13:06–16:58)
• Trump’s National Guard/Memphis Announcement (18:06–18:45)
• Legal Battle over Deportations (18:45–19:37)

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Tone & Style Highlights

The conversation combines serious, hard-hitting political analysis with moments of dry humor and relatable analogies (like Jane Coaston's comparison of Congress's procrastination to her college habits). Both Coaston and Diaz provide clear, jargon-free explanations alongside candid observations about Congressional behavior, party dynamics, and the shutdown's real-world impacts.

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Summary Takeaway

In this episode, Jane Coaston and guest Daniella Diaz break down a familiar but newly-tense government shutdown scenario, highlighting both the inter- and intra-party rifts driving brinkmanship, and the pressure both parties—especially Democrats—now face to secure real policy wins. The analysis is grounded in real Capitol Hill sourcing and candid about Congressional tactics, while also connecting the negotiations to their tangible impact on Americans.

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For further reference:

• Read Daniella Diaz’s full reporting at Notice (link in show notes)
• Subscribe to “What A Day” for more concise, substantive daily coverage

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Transcript

[A]

It's Monday, September 15th. I'm Jane Coston and this is what a day. The show saluting Pudge the Cat, the unofficial mascot of Bowling Green's college football team. The three year old Persian shorthair hangs out in the locker room and even visits the sideline on occasion, according to Bowling Green player George Carlson, Pudge's owner. Pudge is pretty into the whole thing since it usually comes with lots of pets. On today's show, new details emerge about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. And President Donald Trump sets his sights on Memphis, saying it's the National Guard's next stop. But let's start with the potential for a government shutdown. Yes, again, federal government funding will run out on September 30th. And without legislation to keep the lights on, the government will shut down on October 1st. Now you might be thinking, didn't we do this like a few months ago? And yeah, we did. Back in March, the Senate approved a short term spending bill with the help of 10 Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. And if Republicans want to keep the government open, their tiny majority in both chambers of Congress ensures that they'll need Democrats to sign onto a deal. But Democrats aren't so inclined to avoid a shutdown this time. And if they're going to agree to a short term spending bill, they want something in return, namely the extension of Affordable Care act tax credits, which are due to expire at the end of this year. Without an extension, the nonpartisan research group KFF estimates that the cost of premiums for folks enrolled in an ACA healthcare plan, an estimated 25 million people, could rise 75%. Republicans, on the other hand, don't seem inclined to reach across the aisle, even if it means the government goes dark, particularly since Senate Minority Leader Schumer balked on a shutdown last time. Here's Alabama Republican Senator Katie Britt on FOX News Sunday.

[B]

Unfortunately, what we've seen from Senator Schumer.

[A]

Is that he is incapable of putting.

[B]

What is best for America first. He literally has been no show Schumer. As we worked through different things last.

[A]

Week, he was holed up in his.

[B]

Office because he is afraid of his.

[A]

Own shadow and afraid of who might.

[B]

Actually challenge him coming forward.

[A]

Sounds like someone doesn't take Chuck Schumer very seriously. So to talk more about the potential for a shutdown and why this time might be different for Democrats, I spoke to Daniela Diaz. She's a congressional reporter for Notice, a nonprofit D.C. journalism organization. Daniella, welcome to Whataday. Thanks for having me so you report that lawmakers are working on a plan that would keep the government funded past the September deadline. What's the plan and where does it actually stand?

[B]

Jane, if you talk to Republicans, they're saying that they want to try to have some sort of stopgap measure which would essentially fund the government at its current levels and at least through November. But if you talk to Democrats, they're saying there's just no way that they're going to get behind what we call a clean cr, clean continuing resolution at its current levels, unless they can negotiate with Republicans over extending those Affordable Care act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. If you remember, Jane, earlier this year, we saw some Senate Democrats vote with Republicans to pass a continuing resolution that would lead us to where we are right now. So it's unclear whether they will, quote, unquote, as some House Democrats say, fold again to fund the government at its current levels. It seems like Democrats are willing to put up more of a fight this time around.

[A]

It seems to me that to your point about what Republicans want and what Democrats want being so different like that, that obviously puts the chances of an agreement pretty low. But what's going on among Republicans right now, because are we seeing the same sorts of differences between kind of the Freedom Caucus side and the non Freedom Caucus side that we saw a couple of months ago?

[B]

If you talk to the majority of Republicans, which I do every day here on Capitol Hill, most of them want actual appropriations bills. So actual bills that set the funding levels of what?

[A]

Not just having stopgap measures for the.

[B]

Rest of our lives, not just having stopgap measures at the same levels that have been happening for the last couple of months. They actually want to see an appropriations process, which is essentially what Congress is supposed to do, is set the government funding levels each year. But if you talk to those really conservative members, the Freedom Caucus guys, the guys that really love President Donald Trump and are very maga, they're going to say, what's the point of raising funding levels to any department? We should just keep the government funded at its current levels, maybe try to help the Department of Defense and raise that funding. But other than that, why do we need to raise spending? We want to cut spending. So even within the Republican Party, Jane, those discussions are happening, too, but it's not new. This happens every time that there's government funding talks on Capitol Hill. It's like Groundhog Day every couple of months when these conversations begin and end. Once they've passed a package.

[A]

I mean, I think that that's the weirdest thing about this is that we did this like a couple of months ago. We were both here like I was alive. I remember all of this. But it does feel different right now to me. Does it feel different to you? Does the vibe feel different? And if so, why?

[B]

I think there are a lot of factors for why it's different right now than it is in March. First of all, Elon Musk is not playing a role in all of this because he's not part of Doge, a Department of Government Efficiency. And he was the one, you know, really in Donald Trump's ear saying we need to cut spending in all the departments, keep the appropriations bills low. This time around, people, it seems like Republicans and Republican leadership do want to set top line funding numbers and work with Democrats on that because they can't do it alone. I think that's something the average American who's just tuning in to government spending every couple of months when it's in the headlines may not understand is that Republicans, even though they control the House and the Senate and the White House, they can't pass bills, even a C.R. a stopgap measure, without Democratic help. So even if they want to say they want to do all of these things, they kind of have to work with Democrats, and Democrats seem like they're willing to fight.

[A]

Now, the White House reportedly sent along the president's anomalies list. Can you tell me what that is and how that might impact negotiations?

[B]

Right. I got a copy of those anomalies they sent them yesterday. It basically addresses all of the things that the White House wants included if they're able to pass something to continue funding the government past September 30th. And now hidden in that anomalies list was a suggestion that the Republicans try to pass a continuing resolution through January 2026 or January 30, 31st of next year. We had known that the White House's position was a longer cr, but they put it in writing in an anomalies list that they sent to the Republican leaders that included a bunch of other provisions from different departments of things that they wanted. So whether or not Republicans move forward and do their own plan or listen to the White House, which is typically what Republicans on Capitol Hill do, if the White House tells them to do something, they do it remains to be seen. So far, I talked to top appropriations leaders, including Tom Cole, who's the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, who said, look, we're flexible. We'll see what time the stopgap measure Happens, they say they would prefer something that goes through Thanksgiving or the holidays, the Christmas holidays, December holidays, because Adams, more pressure. And then they can scramble and try to pass the rest of the appropriations bills before the end of the year so that they at least get something done sooner. So we'll see if they actually are able to achieve that. Because a lot can change between now and September 30th.

[A]

Yeah. Is it common to try and get a CR that would go until next, like, January 31st, 2026? That seems to be kicking the can way down the road.

[B]

I mean, if you know Congress the way I do, Jane, that's a lot of what they do around here is kick the can down the road.

[A]

I feel like they've been kicking the can for, like, eight years.

[B]

Oh, my goodness. I've lost track of how many government funding fights I've covered in the, you know, on and off. Eight years I've covered Congress. It's pretty standard to hear them talk about just figuring out a temporary solution to buy more time. It's interesting to me because they knew this deadline was coming up. This is always the question that we ask lawmakers on both sides. You knew that September 30th was coming up. Why is it now a scramble when you saw this deadline coming? But again, as I said earlier, Congress doesn't tend to do much until they're faced with a major deadline. And that's really when you see them move quickly.

[A]

Look, that was me in college. I get it. I totally understand.

[B]

We all procrastinate.

[A]

As you mentioned, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is calling for both parties to come to the table to work out a bipartisan funding deal. But a lot of Democrats, like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy seem to be saying, you know what? Fuck it, let's do a shutdown. Do you care to read some tea leaves here as to how this might play out over the next three weeks? As you keep saying, like, no one really knows what will happen until we get to basically, like, the end of September. But what. What are you seeing and what are you thinking right now?

[B]

I will say, Jane, this is also similar to a question you asked earlier. It feels very different this time around than March, because. Let's flashback for a second. Do you remember what happened in March when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sided with Republicans with a handful of Democrats that were able to get that CR across the finish line? And then that next week, he couldn't even do a press tour for his book because he was getting so much hate Everybody was Democrats because he helped Republicans pass a CR with nothing in exchange for it, quote, unquote, what his own party said about him. He feels that pressure this time around. And of course, it doesn't help that progressive Democrats have called for him to step aside as leader because of that decision in March, that a lot of House Democrats were doing that in town halls when that happened in March, too. So I don't think Schumer, if I could read his mind, he has not told me this directly, but based on what my knowledge in sourcing, is eager for that kind of drama again. And he listens to voters. And there's a lot of voters, Democratic voters, that say it's time for Democrats to fight for us and put something on the table with Republicans about what needs to be happen in exchange for whatever Republicans are going to do to fund the government. So it does feel different in that sense. And to be clear, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is already saying publicly, you know, Democrats on the House side are aligned with, we are going to stick together in this. We have a lot of things that we're asking Republicans for, including extending ACA subsidies, which they find to be a priority and in addressing before the end of the year. So that's why there's a lot more pressure on Schumer to do something about this, because he kind of has more weight and power in these negotiations with Republicans on this.

[A]

Now, I used to live in D.C. i remember having a couple of government shutdowns because all of my friends who worked for the federal government suddenly were at the bar. But can you remind us what actually happens if the government shuts down?

[B]

Yeah, a lot of departments stop functioning the way you're used to. You know, you might need to call someone about your student loans and someone's not going to be on the other line to pick up that call. You might need you might have an issue with your taxes and need to address, you know, the irs. There might not be someone on that other line. But another thing to note is there will be people working in these departments who are not going to get paid. And I'm not sure how many people want people in the military serving without a paycheck coming to them, because that's what's going to happen. I mean, it's going to have a massive effect on the economy across the country if people are not getting their paychecks for their government jobs, which, by the way, are not just in D.C. but in every state.

[A]

Daniella Diaz, thank you so much for joining me.

[B]

Thank you for having me.

[A]

That was my conversation with Daniella Diaz, a Congressional reporter. For notice. We'll link to her work in our show Notes. We'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some Ads why today is brought to you by Nutrafol. You've probably seen a million ads for hair growth products and thought, sure, like that actually works. But Nutrafol isn't like the rest of them. Nutrafol is physician formulated, clinically tested and dermatologists recommended. Nutrafol is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand trusted by over 1.5 million people. You can feel great about what you're putting into your body since Nutrafol hair growth supplements are backed with peer reviewed studies and NSF Content Certified, the gold standard in third party certification for supplements. See Thicker, stronger, faster growing hair with less shedding in just three to six months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, Nutrafol is offering our listeners $10 off your first month subscription and free shipping. When you go to nutrafol.com and enter the Promo Code Day, Find out why Nutrafol is the best selling hair growth supplement [e-mail] spelled n u t r a f o l.com, promo code day. That's nutrafool.com, promo code day. Olivia loves a challenge. It's why she lifts heavy weights and likes complicated recipes. But for booking her trip to Paris, Olivia chose the easy way. With Expedia, she bundled her flight with a hotel to save more. Of course, she still climbed all 674 steps to the top of the ice. You were made to take the easy route. We were made to easily package your trip. Expedia Made to Travel Flight Inclusive packages are atoll protected. Jed's the mother of two teens. Her online shopping cart is always full of amps and auxiliary cables, so you might think she's funding her kid's garage band. But what you don't know is she's actually the one shredding on stage. With TransUnion's 360 degree view of consumer identity, you can get a clear picture of your marketing audience and reach people like Jen with messages that are more headbanger, less homebody. See how TransUnion is bringing clarity to marketing chaos through deeper insights, smarter reach and Precise [e-mail] clarity here's what else we're following today. Head of lines There was kind of that deep, dark Internet, the Reddit culture and these other dark places of the Internet where this person was going deep. That's Utah's Republican Governor Spencer Cox on NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, giving new details about the suspect in the shooting death of Charlie Kirk. A 22 year old Utah man was taken into custody on Thursday. As of Sunday night, the suspect hasn't been cooperating with authorities and investigators haven't established an official motive. But Governor Cox says the suspect held leftist ideology and that friends and family have provided information. Cox says one source has been the suspect's roommate, who was also his romantic partner. Authorities have indicated the partner has provided private messages that incriminate the suspect. Investigators are also looking into a note left behind by the alleged shooter. In the New York Times reports the suspect even joked in a group chat that his doppelganger was the killer. Formal charges are expected Tuesday. In that same interview with Meet the Press on Sunday, Governor Cox made his umpteenth attempt to get people to curb political polarization. The most powerful companies in the history.

[B]

Of the world have figured out how.

[A]

To hack our brains. Get us addicted to outrage, which is the same type of dopamine, the same chemical that you get from taking fentanyl. Get us addicted to outrage and get.

[B]

Us to hate each other.

[A]

I'm seeing it in real time since the tragic death of Charlie Kirk. He has his work cut out for him. President Trump said that Kirk's backers should respond without violence. But he also blamed people on the left for the killing, saying they're, quote, vicious and they're horrible. And Trump's senior adviser Stephen Miller echoed this sentiment on Fox News on Friday. There is a domestic terrorism movement in this country. When you see these organized, doxing campaigns.

[B]

Where the left calls people enemies of the republic, calls them fascists, says they're Nazis, says they're evil, says they have to be removed, and then prints their addresses. What do you think they're trying to do? They are trying to inspire someone to murder them.

[A]

Maga's troll in chief, Laura Loomer agreed. On Twitter, she wrote that folks on the right should fear assassination attempts against them. She went on to say that she'd ruin the career of anyone who reveled in Kirk's death. Apparently there's now a website to help her with that. It aims to ID and shame anyone who celebrated Kirk's murder or even people referencing Kirk's actual statements. The Internet is terrible right now. So of course, some people have actually already lost their jobs, and some people listed on the site are reporting death threats against them. There are signs that Charlie Kirk's own social media empire will return to the fray. Widow Erica Kirk spoke on her late husband's YouTube channel Friday. The cries of this widow will echo around the world like a battle cry to everyone listening tonight, across America. The movement my husband built will not die. It won't. I refuse to let that happen. It will not die. Social media accounts run by Charlie Kirk and his organization, Turning Point usa, have attracted millions of new followers since his death. We're going to Memphis. Memphis is, that's the next city deeply troubled.

[B]

And the mayor is happy.

[A]

He's a Democrat mayor. The mayor is happy.

[B]

And the governor.

[A]

Tennessee. The governor is happy. President Trump announced Friday that he set his sights on Memphis, Tennessee for a National Guard deployment. Memphis is the third city thus far and his crime crackdown spectacular after Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. trump also floated that the deployment could include the military if necessary. Tennessee Republicans, including Senator Marsha Blackburn and Governor Bill Lee, predictably applauded the news. But as for the president's claim that Memphis's Democratic mayor is happy about it, Mayor Paul Young told CNN Saturday, well.

[B]

I'm certainly not happy about the National Guard.

[A]

Trump initially had his sights on Chicago, but after unified opposition from state and local Democrats, he backed down in the latest deportation news because, yes, deportations are still happening, A federal judge said over the weekend. It appeared the Trump administration was flouting U.S. court orders that prohibited five African immigrants from being deported to their home countries. How? By sending them to Ghana, only to have Ghana, not the US Send the deportees to countries where they could face torture or even death. According to an ACLU lawyer, one of the plaintiffs has already been sent from Ghana to his native Gambia, even though a US Court found he could not be sent there. Sound familiar? U.S. district Judge Tanya Chutkan ordered the government during an emergency hearing Saturday to detail its plans for the immigrants in Ghana. She said, quote, I have not been shy about saying that. I think this is a very suspicious scheme. Agreed. A Department of justice lawyer told Chukan in court that Ghana promised it wouldn't deport those immigrants and that Chutkan had no power to control how another country treats deportees. Anyway, again, sound familiar? What an empathetic administration. And that's the news. Before we go, great news. What a Day has new merch. A new what a Day T shirt and bottle opener just dropped. Wearing a soft T shirt and cracking open a cold drink are two of the things that make even the roughest days better, and we are all about that at wad. The designs are really colorful and fun and I know the WAD squad is going to love them. Grab them [e-mail] store. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a Review Wish Qing Bao the giant panda a happy 4th birthday and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, I'm not just about Ching Bao, who lives at the National Zoo in D.C. and had a fruitcicle cake to celebrate with hundreds of panda fans like me. What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Jane Coston and after 30 minutes of eating fruit and opening presents, including a new ball, Qing Bao climbed into a tree and took a nap. A model for all of us. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Foer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We have production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Megan Larson, Gina Pollack and Jonah Eatman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our senior Vice president of news and Politics is Adrienne Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

[B]

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[A]

From the Cascades to PDX to your kitchen, we recycle like we live here. That's why governments, brands and recycling companies are all joining together to bring change to make recycling better. As in trusting that your recyclables end up in the right places to be made into new things and having brands help fund the cost of recycling. You can find the Latest updates at recycleon.org Oregon From Mount Hood to the bin under your desk, together we can do this.