The Challenge To Ending The Iran War

Summary

What A Day – "The Challenge To Ending The Iran War"

Release Date: May 28, 2026
Host: Jane Coston
Featured Guest: Nihal Toosi, Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent and Columnist, Politico

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Jane Coston explores the complex and ongoing Iran war, focusing on why it shows no sign of ending and how Israel’s actions, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, remain central to the region’s instability. Jane invites Nihal Toosi, a senior foreign affairs correspondent at Politico, to break down recent developments, the prospects for peace, and the interplay between Trump’s political objectives, Iran negotiations, and Israel’s strategy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Elusive End to Trump’s Iran War

[00:00–02:23]

• Jane opens with a tongue-in-cheek nod to political controversies before shifting to the main topic: despite Donald Trump’s assurances, U.S. military involvement in Iran is nowhere near wrapping up.
• Trump’s statements about international control over the Strait of Hormuz are highlighted as mostly performative and unrealistic.

Quote:

“I couldn't possibly see why anyone is worried Iran wants control of the strait of Hormuz… It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it, but nobody's going to control it.”
— Cabinet meeting summary, as recounted by Jane and Nihal [01:04–01:41]

2. Israel’s True Aims in Iran

[02:24–03:20]

• Jane asks Nihal why Israel, particularly Netanyahu, seems less involved in the peace solution.
• Nihal’s take: Israel ultimately seeks regime change in Iran, a goal well beyond the current negotiation scope and not a likely outcome in this conflict.

Quote:

“Ideally, I think this Israeli government, and many Israelis, want regime change in Iran. That remains the long-term goal... it’s a system. It’s deeply entrenched. It’s designed to rebuild itself. Probably some people around Trump knew this from the beginning, but Trump himself has come to realize that you can’t simply dislodge this regime.” — Nihal Toosi [02:42–03:20]

3. The Abraham Accords and the Spoiler Problem

[04:08–06:26]

• Trump is leveraging negotiations to push for more states to join the Abraham Accords—normalization pacts between Israel and Arab (and other) nations.
• Jane and Nihal discuss the disconnect between Trump’s “poison pill” demand for new signatories (even countries like Turkey and Iran) and the regional reality.
• Arab diplomats often see Trump’s talk as political theater aimed at appeasing GOP critics rather than real diplomatic requirements.

Quotes:

“Trump says a lot of stuff, and he tends to forget about them... [This tactic] appeases his GOP base. So some Arab diplomats say, ‘Look, this is not actually going to happen. But he just kind of needs to say this to calm down some of the GOP base.’” — Nihal Toosi [05:29–06:26]

4. Escalation in Lebanon and Implications for Peace

[06:26–07:59]

• Despite an announced “ceasefire,” Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, undermining any meaningful sense of peace or de-escalation.
• The continued fighting is complicating U.S.-Iran negotiations and risks derailing any broader regional resolution.

Quote:

“Look, I don’t even know what the word ceasefire means anymore. There are words that are so increasingly meaningless in the national security space these days—like, what is a war? What is a conflict? What is a deal? Right?... The ceasefire is falling apart.” — Nihal Toosi [06:52–07:38]

5. Regional Reactions to Israel’s Aggressive Posture

[08:06–09:38]

• Many Arab governments are alarmed by Israel’s shift to the far-right and aggressive expansion, particularly after the Gaza war.
• The region remains deeply distrustful of both Iran and Israel, but recent Israeli actions (Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank settler violence) have alienated even historic U.S. partners.

Quote:

“Many Arab governments might have actually signed the Abraham Accords had it not been for what happened in the Gaza war. And how Israel has acted in Gaza that has killed so many Palestinians.” — Nihal Toosi [08:06–09:10]

6. Netanyahu’s Political Calculus and the Future of Regional Peace

[09:38–11:57]

• Netanyahu’s grip on power is strengthened by his alignment with right-wing elements, despite (or because of) internal and external criticism.
• Even with an election looming, Jane and Nihal see no quick pathway to peace as long as Netanyahu remains—and even after, given shifts in Israeli public opinion toward security hardline.
• Netanyahu’s personal motives—including legal troubles—drive his reluctance to disengage.

Quote:

“One thing I’ve learned is never, ever bet against the guy… He’s very much incentivized to stay in power. And this is a guy who really just can’t let go… Even if Netanyahu were not in power, Israelis in general, after October 7, 2023, are much more hardcore and right-wing and security minded... So it’s not just necessarily about him, but in so many ways it is about him.” — Nihal Toosi [10:24–11:57]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Regime change is hard, especially when a regime is not just built around one single guy.” — Nihal Toosi [03:20]
• “I don’t even know what the word ceasefire means anymore.” — Nihal Toosi [06:52]
• “Never, ever bet against [Netanyahu].” — Nihal Toosi [10:24]

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Key Segment Timestamps

• Intro and overview: [00:00–01:04]
• Iran, Strait of Hormuz, initial negotiation lines: [01:04–02:23]
• Israel's motives in Iran conflict: [02:23–03:20]
• Tension between regime change and negotiation realism: [03:20–04:08]
• Abraham Accords as negotiating wedge: [04:08–06:26]
• Israel's Lebanon escalation and ceasefire unraveling: [06:26–07:59]
• Regional outlook on Israel: [07:59–09:38]
• Netanyahu’s power, Israel’s politics, regional peace prospects: [09:38–11:57]

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Additional News Briefs (Non-Iran War)

(Begins [16:19])

• Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton defeats Senator Cornyn in Texas GOP primary.
• House Democrats move to block Trump’s “Triumphal Arch.”
• U.S. handling of Ebola crisis and new policy for green card applicants.
• Free speech settlement at Ball State University.

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Conclusion

Summary:
This episode provides a nuanced, candid look at the diplomatic and political dynamics keeping the Iran war alive. The discussion centers on the limits of U.S. and Israeli influence, the stubbornness of entrenched regimes, the political theater of the Abraham Accords, and Netanyahu’s self-serving but region-shaping politics. Nihal Toosi’s analysis illuminates why many regional actors see little hope for peace—at least while current Israeli and American leaderships stay their course.

Tone:
Straight-shooting, analytical, and occasionally darkly humorous, both Jane and Nihal emphasize complexity and avoid easy answers or partisan outrage.

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For listeners:
Even without having heard the episode, you'll understand the central players (Trump, Iran’s regime, Netanyahu), the main negotiation sticking points, and why Middle East peace looks as distant as ever.

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Recommended Listening:
For in-depth context, revisit earlier episodes on the Iran war’s outbreak or Jane’s past interviews with Middle East analysts. For further reading, see Nihal Toosi’s reporting for Politico.

Transcript

[Jane Coston]

Foreign It's Thursday, May 28th. I'm Jane Coston, and this is what a day. The show shouting out 35 former federal judges who have sued the Trump administration over President Donald Trump's $1.776 billion mega slush fund. That brings my count of lawsuits over the slush fund to 4, which, interestingly, is the number of brain cells one would need to have to believe that the slush fund is a good idea. On today's show, Trump's endorsement streak continues. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton dominated Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday's Senate Republican primary runoff. And a Ball State University employee gets paid after she was fired for criticizing Charlie Kirk. Turns out free speech does go both ways. But let's start with the war in Iran and Israel's role in any potential peace deal. Because despite whatever Trump has said over the last few days, his war in Iran does not look like it's ending soon. Granted, while we're getting pearls of wisdom from Trump like this, at Wednesday's Cabinet meeting, I couldn't possibly see why anyone

[Nihal Toosi]

is worried Iran wants control of the strait or Hormuz. Would you accept a short term deal that allows Iran and Oman to control the strait, and would they have to open it immediately, or would you be open to that happening over a period of time?

[Unknown Guest or Commentator]

No, the strait is going to be open to everybody. It's.

[Nihal Toosi]

And who would control it?

[Unknown Guest or Commentator]

International waters? Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it, we'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters. And Oman will behave just like everybody else who will have to blow him up. They understand that. They'll be fine.

[Jane Coston]

What? But here's the thing. A major factor in what happens with Trump's war in Iran isn't Trump. It's Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite a ceasefire, Israel has continued to bomb targets in southern Lebanon, part of the country's war against Hezbollah, an Iranian backed proxy militia that controls a swath of Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israel told residents of southern Lebanon to leave their homes as the Israeli military moves into new areas of the country again during a ceasefire. So what do Israel's goals mean for Trump's war in Iran and the future of the Middle East? To find out, I spoke to Nihal Toosi. She's a senior foreign affairs correspondent and columnist at Politico. Nihal, welcome back to Water Day.

[Nihal Toosi]

Hey, it's great to be here.

[Jane Coston]

The US And Iran have been working on some kind of deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. But there have been various reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who also helped to start this war back in February, has not really been involved. What does Israel want out of the Iran war?

[Nihal Toosi]

Ideally, I think this Israeli government and many Israelis want regime change in Iran. That remains the long term goal, and it's one that does not seem like it's going to happen this time around. And it's really important to understand that that's really the ultimate desire is changing that regime completely.

[Jane Coston]

But it doesn't seem like that's a priority for Trump or in these negotiations. Like, I feel like we stopped hearing about regime change back at the beginning of March. Now we're just getting at Strait of Hormuz, open nuclear material dealt with. What does that mean for Israel?

[Nihal Toosi]

I think Trump would have loved to have seen the regime fall. He would have loved to have had that be part of his legacy. But guess what? It turns out regime change is hard, especially when a regime is not just built around one single guy. The thing about the Iranian regime is that it's a system. It's deeply entrenched. It's designed to rebuild itself. Probably some people around Trump knew this from the beginning, but Trump himself has come to realize that you can't simply dislodge this regime. And so when you have a situation, when this conflict is causing so much global economic pain, so much political pain for him, he's now thinking, well, how can I put a stop to this without causing too much more damage?

[Jane Coston]

But at the same time, he's added a new condition for a peace deal that more countries in the Middle east join the Abraham Accords, which were brokered by Jared Kushner during Trump's first term. First, can you remind us, like, what are the Abraham Accords?

[Nihal Toosi]

The Abraham Accords are a set of deals that normalize relations between Israel and other countries, assign onto them, several of them having been Arab countries. These are diplomatic relations. They would formally recognize Israel as a country and set up embassies, that sort of thing. They established economic ties, cultural ties. And so you've had several countries already joined the uae, Bahrain, they've been part of this in the past. And Trump and the Biden administration, they have tried to expand these accords over the years to bring on more people, gain Israel more friends. And now Trump brought this up at a time when the odds are very, very Low. That many countries want to join this particular deal.

[Jane Coston]

Yeah, I was, I was wondering, like, is this even feasible? I know you wrote about this, but he wants Pakistan and Turkey to join, and he even talked about Iran joining, which was very confusing. This seems to me be kind of a poison pill. Like, if you add this in, you have something that's going to push people away from the bargaining table who might have been more interested in.

[Nihal Toosi]

You know, some people do see it as a poison pill, and they think it could collapse all of the Iran talks. But a number of smart Arab diplomats and others that I've spoken to say, look, Trump says a lot of stuff, and he tends to forget about them. And one of the things that they saw him doing with this request is appeasing his GOP base. Right. So you had people like Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin and others who are, like, very hawkish on Iran being very unhappy with the contours of the Iran deal that was emerging, and they were taking it out on Trump. And so when Trump put this out there saying, hey, as part of the deal, we can have everybody sign the Abraham Accords, suddenly these guys thought, well, actually, maybe it'll work. They kind of softened their criticism of Trump. So some Arab diplomats say, look, this is not actually going to happen. But he just kind of needs to say this to calm down some of the GOP base.

[Jane Coston]

At the same time that Trump and Iran are engaged in peace talks, Israel is dialing up its attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon, even though they're supposedly in the midst of a ceasefire. How is the rest of the region responding to Israel's increasingly aggressive actions in the Middle east as it occupies land, obviously in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria? I mean, I think it goes to your point about, like, Israel's not making signing onto the Abraham Accords look more appealing with its actions.

[Nihal Toosi]

Look, there are a lot of benefits, you could argue, to signing the Abraham Accords, I mean, in terms of investment, things like that. But, yeah, the Lebanon fighting continues, its escalating. Look, I don't even know what the word ceasefire means anymore. There are words that are so increasingly meaningless in the national security space these days, like, what is a war? What is a conflict? What is a deal? Right. So, yeah, there's supposed to be a ceasefire, but the Israelis say that Hezbollah is attacking them and that they're. They're striking back and they have to wipe out this group that is Iranian backed. And so, absolutely, the ceasefire is falling apart. And what's important is that the. The reports that emerged about the deal with Iran was that there might have to be an end to the fighting in Lebanon too. Right. And the Israelis are like, wait, wait, wait, we, we, we're not necessarily going to sign up to that. So the fact that they're escalating the fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon could undermine the ability to strike a deal between the US and Iran.

[Jane Coston]

How do other countries in the Middle east view Israel right now, especially as this war continues?

[Nihal Toosi]

So many of the countries in the region are really increasingly worried about Israel's actions and Israel's role. Especially this particular Israeli government, which is very wing, has some very far right figures, and has been very, very aggressive. Let's not forget that the Gaza war remains an open wound for many people. And many Arab governments in particular are just deeply alarmed. These are, some of these governments might have actually signed the Abraham Accords had it not been for what happened in the Gaza war. And how Israel, you know, has, has the actions that it has taken in Gaza that have killed so many Palestinians. That's just part of it, though. Israel has also been acting very aggressively in Syria, as we described, acting very aggressively in Lebanon, taking a lot of territory there. And it's also effectively de facto annexing parts of the west bank increasingly through settlers who are increasingly violent toward the Palestinians who are there. So although many countries in the region are extremely unhappy with Iran, do not like the Iranian regime, were originally kind of hoping the regime would fall. They also are looking at Israel and they're thinking, what is this government up to? Is it trying to be like the regional hegemon and how are we going to deal with them if and when we can control the Iranian threat?

[Jane Coston]

Yeah. It strikes me that Benjamin Netanyahu is up for reelection this year and he has a government which, as you've mentioned, is increasingly right wing with the ways in which the settler violence is kind of encouraged. You saw the National Security Minister, Ben gvir, be banned from France because of his actions with regard to members of a protest flotilla. You've seen how the right wing government which keeps Netanyahu in power seems to be pushing away the rest of the Middle East. But Netanyahu gets to stay in power, so that works for him. Is peace in the Middle east possible as long as Netanyahu is in power? I know, I know.

[Nihal Toosi]

You know, Netanyahu has been, he's like the longest serving Israeli prime minister. Not contiguous, but I mean, definitely very long serving. One thing I've learned is never, ever bet against the guy. After October 7th, I thought politically he was done for a lot of People thought that, nope, he is not going to give up. He's also facing trial on corruption charges. So he's very much incentivized to stay in power. And this is a guy who really just can't let go. I mean, he's just not able to ride off into the sunset. There are people who say he is the worst leader in Israeli history and others who say he's, he's the best because he's protected Israel, because he saw the threat from Iran coming. You know, is the region going to be better off because he stays in power or not? Oh, I mean, it's very hard to know. Look, I think it's important to remember that even if Netanyahu were not in power, Israelis in general after October 7, 2023 are much more hardcore and right wing and security minded. They are much less willing to tolerate the threats on their borders or in the region. Many of them are very, very much supportive of going after Iran. So whoever takes power after Netanyahu is not going to be like a 180. And so it's not just necessarily about him, but in so many ways it is about him.

[Jane Coston]

Nihal, thank you so much for joining me.

[Nihal Toosi]

It's been great. Thank you.

[Jane Coston]

That was my conversation with Nihal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent and columnist at Politico. We'll link to her work in the show. Notes. More news about terrible people doing terrible things is coming. Sorry. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a day is brought to you by Zebiotics Pre Alcohol. Let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is until I found Pre Alcohol Zebiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough days. After drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on running without worry. From the crack of the bat at the stadium to the start of wedding season and the roar of the engines in Indy, May is packed with back to back reasons to be out. Don't let a rough morning after keep you on the sidelines. Drink pre alcohol to stay ahead of it and make the most of every Saturday this month. Go to zbiotics.com wad to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use code WAD at checkout. Zebiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com wad and use the code WAUD at checkout for 15% off. This podcast is brought to you by WISE, the app for international people using money around the globe when it comes to sending money abroad, many providers claim to offer free fees and competitive rates. But don't be fooled. This can be code for inflated exchange rates. With the WISE account, you can send, spend and receive money in over 40 currencies without ever having to worry about hidden fees sending pounds across the pond. Most transfers arrive in 20 seconds or less. Spending reals in Rio. The Wise Travel Card gives you the mid market rate on every purchase. No costly markups on your bill getting paid in dollars for your side gig. Avoid hidden fees and get the real exchange rate every time with 24. 7 access to live support, your international transactions with WISE are quick, transparent and safe. Plus wise runs over 7 million daily checks to catch and prevent fraud. 15 million people already trust WISE to manage their money internationally. Be Smart, Get Wise My husband and I have used WISE when we've traveled all over the country and it's been a total game changer. Download the Wyze app today or visit wise.com Terms and Conditions apply.

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[Nihal Toosi]

Head of Lines

[Unknown Guest or Commentator]

I Don't care about the Midterms look what happened last night. That was the prelude to the midterms.

[Jane Coston]

About that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton dominated Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday's Texas U.S. senate runoff. This was the latest contest where Trump sought to oust an incumbent he saw as insufficiently loyal. The grudge holding president endorsed Paxton last week, calling him a quote, true MAGA warrior. And let's not forget that Paxton is corrupt as hell. However, this could create an easier path to victory for the Democratic candidate, Texas State Representative James Tallarico.

[Unknown Guest or Commentator]

I love construction. It's very exciting.

[Jane Coston]

House Democrats are introducing a bill to block construction of Trump's proposed Triumphal arch near the Lincoln Memorial. The bill comes after a federal commission approved the design for the project, which Trump wants to serve as an entrance to the nation's capital. The 250 foot arch is one of several projects the Republican president is pursuing alongside a White House ballroom to leave his imprint on Washington. In a related note, gas prices are above $4.

[Nihal Toosi]

We cannot and will not allow any

[Jane Coston]

cases of Ebola to enter the United States. That was Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday reassuring the public about the ongoing Ebola crisis. Trump's administration is planning to send Americans who are exposed to Ebola while abroad to a new facility in Kenya instead of flying them to the United States, an official said Wednesday. The quarantine and treatment center is being set up by multiple departments and will be designed for Ebola patients who need to get out of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and receive care quickly. The official said the plan would help patients avoid an hours long medical evacuation to the U.S. it was unclear where in Kenya the new facility will be built or whether the Kenyan government has signed off on the plan, which seems like an important factor. A former Ball State University employee who was fired from her job will receive $225,000 to settle her lawsuit against the school. The woman was terminated for a Facebook post criticizing conservative activist Charlie Kirk after his assassination. She's the fourth person who has received a six figure payout after being punished for making comments following Kirk's death. An attorney for the woman said in a statement, quote, the First Amendment does not allow government institutions to retaliate in those circumstances, and this settlement reflects that because life just isn't tough enough for people attempting to live in the United States. U.S. citizenship and Immigration Services, or USCIS, announced last week that green card applicants will have to return to their home country to apply rather than doing so from the US that's a massive shift for the more than 6, 600,000 people already in the US who apply for a green card each year, including spouses of American citizens and holders of US Work visas. In response to questions from the Associated Press, the Department of Homeland Security said Wednesday the shift wouldn't prevent anyone who legitimately and properly qualifies from obtaining a green card, although it will result in some people having to apply overseas with the State Department. Sure, just trust the Department of Homeland Security on this. And that's the news. Before we go. Mark your calendars on June 8th. What a day. Episodes will be hitting YouTube and your podcast feeds just in time for the golden hour. As you know, the news never stops and in a couple of weeks we will get it to you even faster. The latest updates, freshest analysis and headlines as they happen. Just in time for your evening commute, decompression walk or your new designated what a Day Listening time. If you aren't already, subscribe to what a Day on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and follow rookedmedia on social so you never miss an episode. Same show New release time. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, relish the list of performers playing for Trump's Great American State Fair on the National Mall this June and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just about how audiences will thrill to performances by Martina McBride, Milli Vanilli, Flo Rida and Bret Michaels. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe@current crooked.com subscribe I'm Jane Coston and Milli Vanilli. Really? We're doing Milli Vanilli in 2026. What a day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Kaitlyn Plummer, Emily Foer, Erica Morrison and Adrienne Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Kanter. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Race Writers Guild of America east.

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