The College Dropoff

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "The College Dropoff"

Podcast: What A Day
Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: John Marcus (Senior Higher Education Editor, The Hechinger Report)
Date: July 1, 2026
Duration: ~21 minutes

Episode Overview

This episode explores the rapidly changing landscape of higher education in America. Host Jane Coaston is joined by John Marcus to discuss recent policy changes under the Trump administration regarding student loans, the broader challenges facing colleges and universities—including demographic shifts, rising costs, and closures—and what these trends mean for students and the American economy. The discussion is timely, insightful, and occasionally irreverent, capturing both the anxiety and the reality of the “college dropoff.”

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New Trump-Era Student Loan Policies

• Major Shift:
  • As of July 1, 2026, the Trump administration has rescinded the Biden-era “SAVE” plan for student loans. Approximately 7.5 million borrowers must now select new repayment options, which could be significantly more expensive for some.
  • "Beginning today, they are going to have to move to a different plan that could cost them a lot of money, depending on what plan they choose." — John Marcus [05:19]
• Why These Changes?
  • Legal challenges asserted that taxpayers were unfairly subsidizing those who couldn’t repay loans.
  • New plans are less generous—debt discharge now takes up to 30 years instead of 10 under SAVE.
  • Borrowers must act within 90 days or be auto-enrolled in a potentially more expensive default plan.
  • "Unless they pay very close attention, it could possibly cost them a great deal more." — John Marcus [05:40]
  • Resource Alert:
    • Marcus recommends using the Department of Education’s Loan Simulator at studentaid.gov to navigate options.

2. The Impact on College Attendance

• Will Fewer Students Go to College?
  • Widespread discussion of debt may deter potential students.
  • The normalization of student loan anxiety—frequent during the pandemic and Biden administration—has arguably made debt feel more omnipresent and intimidating.
  • “The more people are reminded of that, the more they question whether they also want to take on debt to go to college.” — John Marcus [09:16]

3. The Value (and Need) of a College Degree in 2026

• Contradictions & Realities:
  • There’s a cultural debate about whether college is “worth it,” with many prominent critics nonetheless sending their own children to college.
  • Not everyone needs to go, but “somebody” must, to meet societal needs.
  • "AI can't do all the jobs." — John Marcus [10:35]
  • Many sectors facing shortages—healthcare, semiconductors, and others—require degrees.
  • "We have far fewer 18 year olds coming up through the pipeline to take those jobs. Somebody needs to get degrees." — John Marcus [11:28]
  • Although not all degrees equally boost earnings, most majors and universities do increase earning potential.
  • Declining enrollment could hurt the knowledge-based U.S. economy, especially as global competitors ramp up higher-ed investment.

4. The “Demographic Cliff” and Financial Pressure on Colleges

• Fewer 18-Year-Olds:
  • The number of U.S. college-aged students peaked recently and is dropping—expected to decline 13% by 2042.
  • College enrollment is down by 2 million since 2011.
• Colleges at Risk:
  • Flagship public universities (e.g., Ohio State) are relatively stable.
  • Smaller, tuition-dependent, regionally-focused, religiously-affiliated, and single-gender colleges (especially in rural areas) are struggling most and seeing closures.
  • “More than half of the colleges that have closed have been religiously affiliated…there has been a big decline in the availability of higher ed in rural America.” — John Marcus [18:13]
  • The proportion of high-schoolers going straight to college dropped from 70% to 60% over 10 years.

5. Graduate & Professional School: New Loan Caps

• Tighter Borrowing Limits:
  • New law caps borrowing for graduate and professional degrees (medical, dental, etc.).
  • This could move institutions to lower tuitions—but may also force students out of those fields, deepening shortages of doctors, dentists, and veterinarians.
  • "In the short, short term, it will force people to find some other means of support or forego a career in one of those fields." — John Marcus [19:34]
• Extremely High Sticker Prices:
  • Some colleges now exceed $100,000/year in total costs.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Not everybody needs to go to college is the short answer to your question. But somebody needs to go to college. AI can't do all the jobs."
  — John Marcus [10:35]
• “It is really important that people pick [a repayment plan] by the deadline at the end of September, or else they’ll be put into another plan arbitrarily.”
  — John Marcus [07:33]
• “We have a knowledge-based economy. We have international global rivals who are increasing college going, while...in the United States [it] has been going down really quite dramatically.”
  — John Marcus [11:06]
• "The number of students in college is already down by almost 2 million since 2011. On top of that, the number of 18 year olds peaked last spring. So this fall will be the first year of a...demographic cliff."
  — John Marcus [16:15]
• “More than half of the colleges that have closed have been religiously affiliated. That particularly affects rural areas ...there has been a big decline in the availability of higher education in rural America.”
  — John Marcus [18:13]
• “You talked about costs. There are colleges that as of this year will cost in the six figures, $100,000 a year to get a degree. So those are scary issues..."
  — John Marcus [20:14]

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Timeline of Major Segments

• 00:00–01:05 — Humorous banter and national news update, including lighter moments on Trump's "new" Air Force One and Congress' inaction.
• 03:51 — Introduction of the higher education theme and John Marcus as guest.
• 05:19–08:35 — Overview of Trump admin's student loan policy changes and why they're happening.
• 08:40–11:50 — Discussion of college’s true value, social and economic need for degrees amid changing labor and demographic realities.
• 15:34–19:23 — The demographic cliff, financial instability of colleges, biggest winners and losers.
• 19:23–20:48 — New borrowing caps for grad/professional schools, long-term implications for economy and workforce.
• 20:51 — Episode wrap-up.

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode blends sharp analysis with wry humor, tackling the grim practicalities of rising costs, student debt, and institutional closures with candor. Marcus and Coaston stress that while not everyone “needs” college, the country’s workforce and economy depend on a steady supply of well-educated graduates—even as the path to get there grows riskier and more expensive.

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Actionable Advice

• If you’re affected by new student loan policy:
  • Act quickly to understand and select your best repayment plan by the September deadline (studentaid.gov).
• If you’re considering college:
  • Pay attention to both cost and earning potential of your chosen field; don’t let debt fear alone drive your decision.
• For policymakers and educators:
  • The coming demographic shifts and loan caps highlight the urgency of systemic reform in higher ed financing and access.

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(End of summary)

Transcript

[John Marcus]

Not everybody needs to go to college is the short answer to your question. But somebody needs to go to college. AI can't do all the jobs.

[Jane Coaston]

I'm Jane Coston, and this is what a Day. The show that believes in love, except when that love leads to influencers illegally climbing to the very top of the Empire State Building and proposing marriage. Here's Fox News. New York City specifically has an anti climbing ordinance. By the way, you can't climb a building over 50ft high. That is a misdemeanor punishable by up to one year in jail plus a fine. Disorderly con. Oh, for God's sake. Great. Well, they can consummate the marriage in jail. Look, my opposition is not about love. It's about heights. Namely, I don't like them. On today's show, we discuss how the Trump administration is making college more expensive with John Marcus, higher education editor for the Hechinger Report. Before we get into all that, here's what we're following today, Wednesday, July 1st.

[John Marcus]

So we're very proud of this. The country is very proud of it. And you can do two things.

[Jane Coaston]

You can low key it or you can show it.

[John Marcus]

And I think the country should be very proud of it.

[Jane Coaston]

Ah, yes. As an American getting ready to celebrate the 250th anniversary of our country, the thing I am most proud of, the retrofitted Boeing 747 worth $400 million gifted to President Donald Trump by Qatar. And Trump got to take his first ever trip on the new Air Force One. Today. He flew to North Dakota to see the Theodore Roosevelt Residential Library ahead of its opening on Saturday. Gone is the trademark light blue hull that helped Air Force One blend into the sky. The refurbished jet is painted to Trump's preferred color scheme of a navy belly and red and gold stripes. Like I said, I'm so proud. Trump has had a lot planned for America's 250th birthday. There's the Great American State Fair. That's empty. There's the gilding of everything within his line of sight. And now the Atlantic is reporting the White house is considering 250 pardons for 250 years. The idea had not been put in front of Trump as of Friday, and a White House official told the Atlantic it may never reach the president. But doesn't that sound exactly like something Trump would do? Say goodbye to the House of Representatives, which is headed home for a nearly two week recess after House Republican leaders got absolutely nothing done. Again, all of this stems from President Trump's obsession with The Save America act, which would radically change federal election law. Last week, Trump scuttled a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill, saying that he wouldn't sign it until he got the SAVE act on his desk. And his allies in the House were listening, making it impossible to get votes on anything else, including defense spending. Speaker Mike Johnson tried to get around this problem by attaching the SAVE act to a massive defense spending bill. But that led to that bill getting voted down by Democrats who don't want to pass a SAVE act and Republicans who do want to pass a SAVE act, but not like that. So now everyone's headed home for the holiday weekend and more furious. And having done nothing, once again, Mike Johnson has the worst job in America. It sure seems like we're in a progressive blue wave. Democratic socialist Mela Quiros beat representative Diana DeGette in a Colorado House primary on Tuesday. A stunning victory for the first time candidate against a nearly 30 year incumbent. And another win for progressive challengers across the country. At 29 years old, Kiros will also become the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress if she wins in November. To put a finer point on it, Quiros was born the same year DeGette was first elected to the House. And that's the news. Let's talk about college. It's summer break, but today is the start of big changes for colleges, universities and you if you have student loans because of last year's big Republican spending law debacle disaster adventure, also known as the one big beautiful law. There are new caps on student loans for graduate and professional programs as well as undergrad students. And if you were enrolled in a Biden era student loan plan known as saving on a valuable education or save, you need to look for other repayment options because the Trump administration is ending that program. That's the micro of the situation facing colleges and universities right now. The macro, the world of higher education is changing rapidly as many colleges and universities are raising their sticker price, others are closing their doors. So to learn more about what's shaping the biggest changes impacting higher education, I spoke to John Marcus. He's senior higher education reporter and editor for the Hechinger Report. John, welcome to Whataday.

[John Marcus]

Thank you for having me.

[Jane Coaston]

Now, somehow, and I say this, having gone to college like 15, 16 years ago, I'm thinking it was really expensive then. Going to college is now even more expensive and paying those costs is going to look different. I know I got an email from the Department of Education about my student loan rates. As of today, the Trump administration's new student loan policies are officially in effect. Can you quickly walk us through the biggest changes?

[John Marcus]

Yes, that's correct. So the biggest changes are for about the seven and a half million Americans who are under what's called the Save program that was instated during the Biden administration to help people who might otherwise not be able to afford to repay their college loans beginning today. Today, they are going to have to move to a different plan that could cost them a lot of money, depending on what plan they choose. So it's really important that people pay attention to this process. They have 90 days. They should hear also from the department beginning today. And they'll have a choice of a new plan that is likely to cost them a little bit more. But unless they pay very close attention, it could possibly cost them a great deal more. Why?

[Jane Coaston]

Like why one? Why was this change made and why will it cost them a lot more if they don't pay attention?

[John Marcus]

Why is a harder question. So let me start with the other question. The sort of portfolio of student loan programs that we have is there are a lot of different programs. They are kind of duplicative. There was some legal challenges to the Save plan for from state attorneys general because essentially it meant that taxpayers were filling the gap between what low income borrowers were able to repay and what the save plan sort of limited. You were limited to repaying only 5% of your income, so it was connected to your income. The new plans are also connected to your income, but they won't be quite that generous. And it also won't be possible for you to get your debt discharged as easily. Under the save plan, you could get your debt discharged potentially after 10 years. Now it will be 30 years. That's among the changes that people are going to face. But the most important thing is that they pay attention. There are early indications that loan servicers are having trouble keeping up with all the questions that they're getting, having trouble answering them accurately. There is a helpful sort of tool on the Department of education [e-mail] to it's a loan simulator to which you can type how much you owe and it will give you the options of various plans that you can pick. But it is really important that people pick them by the deadline at the end of September, or else they'll be put into another plan arbitrarily.

[Jane Coaston]

You said that why these changes were made is a harder question. Do you have an answer?

[John Marcus]

Yeah. Again, there were legal challenges to this proposal. There are people who argue that once people borrow as would be the case if you borrowed to buy a house or buy a car or on your credit card, you have to repay it. You've assumed this debt with the intention of repaying it. So allowing people to defer that debt to pay a lower amount per month toward that debt, ultimately the difference was being underwritten by taxpayers. And so there are some arguments that that wasn't fair to the people who didn't benefit from student loans by getting a degree or a credential.

[Jane Coaston]

Is there a concern that these student loan changes will mean that fewer students go to college?

[John Marcus]

Yeah, that's a really interesting question. It depends how what we see happening over the next few months in terms of people defaulting on their loans. The more I think that people hear about student loan debt that have not yet enrolled in college, the more reluctant that they might be. And what was interesting, if you remember back to the Biden administration and the pandemic period, we were discussing student loans almost every day with the well meaning intention of helping people pay them. But the ultimate effect of that was to remind people every day that there is almost $2 trillion worth of student loan debt outstanding in this country. And the more people are reminded of that, the more they question whether they also want to take on debt to go to college.

[Jane Coaston]

So, John, I think that this gets me to a bigger question about college right now and also a pet peeve of mine, which is that people tend to be kind of hypocritical when they talk about college in some ways. And I'll explain, we hear a lot from often people on the right, but also sometimes liberals as well, that you don't really need a college degree, that it's less important now that AI has changed the game. All of the people saying that went to college. I went to college, I loved going to college. I think it's great to go to college. I think that it is a great way to advance not just yourself by education, but also socially. But if you're a young person heading into the workforce for the first time right now, how important is it really to have a college degree? Not with the kind of like, oh, you won't be exposed to wokeness or something like that, but like, what does it mean to have a college degree right now?

[John Marcus]

To your point, many of the people who argue that you don't need to go to college also send their own kids to college. And we hear from many of them who are critical of colleges lately for their purported sort of political leanings, but they still send their kids to college. Not Everybody needs to go to college is the short answer to your question. But somebody needs to go to college. AI can't do all the jobs. And in fact, while you heard a lot of college graduates this spring booing speakers who said nice things about AI because those college graduates are facing a very difficult labor market, especially at the level they're entering at entry level jobs, there are huge shortages in many other fields that require university degrees, particularly healthcare, semiconductor production. Massive shortages. And the reason is simple math. It's that we have a huge cohort of baby boomers who are retiring. The last baby boomers will be filing for Social Security in 2032, and we have far fewer 18 year olds coming up through the pipeline to take those jobs. Somebody needs to get degrees. And there are two purposes for this. One is for their own sake. In most majors, from most institutions, you will make more money with a university degree than without one. How much more you'll make varies. It's not, as colleges would have you believe, a blanket reality that everybody makes more money who goes to college. But the other reason that we need people to go to college is for the sake of our economy. We have a knowledge based economy. We have an international global rivals who are increasing college going while college going in the United States, that is the proportion of high school graduates who go directly to college in the United States has been going down really quite dramatically because of the concern about costs. So somebody needs to go to college is the answer to your question.

[Jane Coaston]

We'll get back to my conversation with John Marcus in a moment for more on how college is changing in some big ways. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a day is brought to you by Deleteme. You need to protect yourself from stalkers, scammers and hackers. But you don't know how. Here's how. Go to www.joindeleteme.com wad and enter code wade. You'll get 20% off DeleteMe. DeleteMe removes your personal information that's being sold online. In the age of AI, we're all especially vulnerable to scammers. Using your personal data that's floating around on the Internet against you. Have you ever googled yourself and found your home address, phone number, or the name of a family member? It's unsettling, but the good news is Deleteme can help. That's why Delete Me was named the top pick for data removal services by Wirecutter. As someone with an active online presence, privacy is really important to me. Deleteme is the best way to protect my family and my online life. Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Deleteme now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to JoinDeleteMe.com wad and use promo code wad at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to www.joindeleteme.com wade and enter code wad at checkout. That's www.joindeleteme dot com wad code wad wadaday is brought to you by Zebiotics let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is, until I found Pre Alcohol Zebiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on working out without worry. July is packed with barbecues, fireworks, lake weekends and late nights with friends. Keep the good times rolling into the next day. Drink pre alcohol before you go out and wake up ready for whatever Sunday brings. Remember to head to zbiotics.com wad and use the code WAD at checkout for 15% off. All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon Refresher and the Mango Pineapple Refresher with Popping Boba to crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry Blast with berry flavors and cold foam. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six? All new drinks are here now at McDonald's.

[John Marcus]

Refreshers contain caffeine.

[Jane Coaston]

Let's get back to my conversation with John Marcus. You said something that was really interesting that I think is pretty key, which is that there are fewer 18 year olds who are coming up through the pipeline to go to college in the first place. And I think that that is something that if you're a college dean or university president, you are very nervous about, because despite the massive price tag, actually the massive price tag and the struggle might be tied to a lot of colleges are struggling financially right now. Is that because there just are fewer 18 year olds that we've kind of reached a peak of the number of 18 year olds who are going to go to College in say, 2008, 2009, and it's downhill from there?

[John Marcus]

Yes, the answer to that question is yes. The number of students in college is already down by almost 2 million since 2011. On top of that, the number of 18 year olds peaked last spring. So this fall will be the first year of a, let's call it a demographic cliff, a DEC. In the number of 18 year olds, the total decline will reach 13% fewer 18 year olds between now and 2042. That's a huge problem for colleges and you've begun to see them closing. It is on top of other problems that colleges are facing some political cuts in federal research funding. International enrollment is a big problem for colleges because they make a lot of money out of international students who aren't coming here anymore. And as I mentioned a moment ago, the proportion of high school students who are graduating from high school who are going directly to college has declined from about 70% at the peak to now closer to 60% in about 10 years. That is a big drop, all of those things. Yeah, they're keeping deans and presidents awake at night, assuming that they still have jobs.

[Jane Coaston]

So something else that's interesting is that this, the financial struggles seem to be a little bit uneven. So if you are a small college, you know, if you're Oberlin or Kenyon, which are both in Ohio, you might be struggling. But if you're Ohio State, it looks like you're more or less sitting pretty. So is it about the difference between big tier one research universities and small colleges like who is struggling more, who is likely to struggle more, and which universities are more likely to be in safer waters?

[John Marcus]

Flagship public universities are doing comparatively well, in part because they're a good deal. They're typically less expensive than a private, nonprofit, even more selective college or university. They receive state funding, although whether that will continue over the long term is a challenge that they're about to face. The colleges that are in the most trouble right now are small, meaning their enrollment is fairly limited, tuition dependent Meaning they don't have big endowments, regional, meaning they're not well known outside of their home state and they can't attract students from across the border. And also single gender, of which there are still a number of single gender institutions and religiously affiliated. More than half of the colleges that have closed have been religiously affiliated. That particularly affects rural areas where there are a number of small religiously affiliated tuition dependent colleges. There has been a big decline in the availability of higher education in rural America. There's sort of an imbalance in what's available to someone who lives in a city or suburb that and someone who lives in rural America. But those are the kinds of colleges that are at risk.

[Jane Coaston]

You mentioned this a little bit earlier, but the US economy is changing really quickly. If college enrollment doesn't go back up, what could that mean for the US in the next 10 to 20 to 30 years? As you mentioned, there are fewer 18 year olds. But we still have an economy that depends on people going to college.

[John Marcus]

We do. And the effect of this over time will be shortages in areas that do require university or college degrees and professional degrees. One of the other changes that takes effect today that we didn't discuss is there is now a cap on borrowing for graduate and professional school, such as medical or dental school. We have a growing shortage of physicians, dentists, veterinarians, the kind of people that need professional degrees. There is potentially a benefit to capping what students can borrow for graduate school and professional school, which is that it might force colleges to lower the tuition, which is very expensive at those schools. In the short, short term it will force people to find some other means of support or forego a career in one of those fields. You talked about costs. There are colleges that as of this year will cost in the six figures, $100,000 a year to get a degree. So those are scary issues and people who dismiss colleges as woke and elitist. I'm not going to wade into that debate, but we need somebody to go and we need somebody to come out of those colleges with the skills to fill jobs that are already. We already have shortages in so many of these areas and that's an issue I think we all need to be paying attention to over time.

[Jane Coaston]

Absolutely. John, thank you so much for joining me.

[John Marcus]

My pleasure. Thank you very much for having me.

[Jane Coaston]

That was my conversation with John Marcus, senior higher education reporter at the Heckinger Report. Before we go, American politics is serious. Okay. It's about a chronically algae filled, no longer reflecting pool. It's about celebrating the country's 250th birthday in the Octagon. Put simply, it's no laughing matter. Nevertheless, love it or Leave it drops every Wednesday and Friday. Each episode, Jon Lovett is joined on stage by guests to break down the biggest stories in American politics with jokes, analysis and catharsis. But mostly jokes. Upcoming guests include Margaret Cho, Representative Maxwell Frost and Brooklyn Nine Nine's Joe Litrulio. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, contemplate how much money the president of the United States took in from his crypto businesses last year, and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, and not just about how According to a federal filing released Tuesday, Trump took in nearly $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses, locking in profits while his investors were socked with losses. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Jane Coston and two quick things. First, on yesterday's episode, I mixed up Justice Samuel Alito with the late Justice Antonin Scalia when discussing dissents in the Birthright Citizenship case, which is very embarrassing given that Justice Scalia passed away in 2016. I regret the air. And second, we are out the rest of this week. Have a very happy and safe Fourth of July and remember, this is your country. Don't let Donald Trump's corruption cavalcade define it. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Foer, Erica Morrison and Adrienne Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.