The Cost Of War Is More Than Oil - What A Day

What A Day — “The Cost Of War Is More Than Oil”

Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Jane Coaston
Guests: Senator Mark Kelly, Matt Berg
Theme: Digging Into the Real Costs — Human, Economic, and Informational — of the Ongoing U.S. War With Iran, and the Political Spin Surrounding It

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the unfolding U.S.-Iran war, scrutinizing President Trump’s attempts to rebrand the conflict, the administration’s foggy information environment, and the tangible costs felt by regular Americans and those caught in the crossfire. Jane Coaston sits down with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly for a frank conversation about accountability, the shifting justifications for war, legislative responses to rising gas prices, and governmental dysfunction back home. Later, Jane and newsletter writer Matt Berg dissect Trump’s messaging, the economic fallout, and the surreal parade of characters managing America’s institutions in wartime.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Mission Accomplished Moment & War Rebranding

[00:57] Trump proclaims, “We’ve won,” branding the Iran conflict as “Operation Epic Fury” before contradicting himself: “We don’t want to leave early. We want to finish the job.”
- Jane observations: War not over; U.S. has poor information about objective, scope, and endgame.
- Casualty count: Over 1,000 Iranians dead, including a strike on an elementary school (Feb 28), for which preliminary U.S. military reports show the U.S. was at fault.
- Quote:
  
  “We are not getting any good information about this war from the Trump administration, from why we’re in this conflict in the first place to what our goals are to when this war will end. There’s a fog around everything.” — Jane Coaston [01:25]
- Pattern: Shifting blame, lack of transparency.

2. Senator Mark Kelly Interview: Seeking Accountability

The Search for Truth Amid Misinformation

[02:35] Jane asks Kelly about the Senate’s letter to the DoD: What do Democrats want to know about the elementary school strike?
- Kelly’s focus: Understanding how the strike happened: “We’ve got to be better than other countries, and that includes accepting responsibility when things go wrong.” [02:49]
- Criticism of Trump: Deflection, blaming Iran with implausible claims (“an Iranian Tomahawk missile”).
- Need for transparency and process reform to prevent recurrence.

The “Informational Soup” in the War

[04:05]
- Jane: Friend counted 17 different official explanations for the war’s purpose.
- Kelly: “My list is 13, and we’re, what, a little over a week into this?”
  - Justifications range from nuclear weapons, regime change, ballistic missiles, oil, Navy, to an “imminent threat.”
  - “The information environment is really complex, and our adversaries are using it against us... I try to go to trusted sources... not believe everything I read on social media.”

Holding the Pentagon Accountable for Civilian Casualties

[05:11]
- Jane asks about military findings (targeting error due to outdated data).
- Kelly: Scale and tempo of strikes are concerning; risk of shortcuts and more civilian casualties.
  - U.S. has a duty to be careful; unlike Russia or Iran, does not intentionally target civilians.
  - Quote:
    
    “But if we zoom out a little bit, why are we in this war with Iran in the first place?... President hasn’t given any kind of a very clear strategic goal and a plan and a timeline… when you don’t have those three things, it’s very easy to wind up in a conflict for months, if not years, and you’re, like, aimlessly stuck in it and you have rising casualties on both sides. To what end? What are the American people getting out of this? So far? From what I can tell, they're getting higher gasoline prices.” [06:25]

Addressing Economic Impacts: The Cost Beyond Oil

[07:49]
- Kelly proposes suspending the federal gas tax until October to help Americans with higher fuel prices.
  - “It’s 18.4 cents per gallon. It’s not a lot. Gasoline has gone up by more than that amount already. But when families are struggling, it’s one thing that we can do, right now, to try to give them some relief.” [07:57]
- Highlights deeper costs: U.S. service member casualties, orphaned children, disabled veterans.

Can You Set an “End Date” for War?

[09:12]
- Jane: “America could say that the war is over and Iran could say, absolutely not. Can you actually put an end date on war?”
- Kelly: “He [Trump] believes that when he decides it’s over, it’s over. But that doesn’t mean the Iranians stop striking targets... Usually these things end by some kind of negotiated settlement.” [09:39]
  - He stresses the risk if Iran races toward nuclear development under new hardline leadership:
    
    “That would be catastrophic if the Iranians were able to build a functioning weapon and we didn’t have to be here. And now we’re at war with Iran.” [10:29]

Domestic Dysfunction: DHS Shutdown & Reform

[10:51]
- Jane asks about concerns with Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) ongoing closure.
- Kelly: Focus on urgency of funding critical agencies (Coast Guard, FEMA), while calling for ICE reform:
  
  “Somebody needs to overhaul this agency from the top up or, you know, the bottom down. Doesn’t matter to me. But it needs a complete overhaul.” [11:11] “We can fund TSA, we can fund Coast Guard, we can fund FEMA.” [12:16]

3. Trump’s Economic Spin and the “Affordability Tour”

Rebranding War as “Excursion” & Downplaying Economic Pain

[15:50] Trump (at Reading, Ohio facility):

“So we had to take an excursion, but it’s doing well. The market’s holding up well... Prices are coming down very substantially. Oil will be coming down. That’s just a. That’s just a matter of war.”
Jane: Highlights the shift: “Apparently, it’s no longer a war, it’s an excursion. But if the economy isn’t looking great, well, that’s a matter of war. So economy good excursion, economy bad war.” [16:14]

Matt Berg Dissects the Real Economic Picture

[16:41]
- Trump faces bad economic news — 92,000 jobs lost in February, stagnant inflation, and expected price hikes due to the war.
  - “It also proves that Trump’s economy is not the greatest ever, even though he is always saying that.” [17:05]
  - Strategic and international oil reserves will be tapped; uncertainty about how this impacts oil prices.

Trump’s Grudges, Political Maneuvering, and DHS Personnel Carousel

Trump’s animosity toward Rep. Thomas Massie leads to bizarre political fights in Kentucky. Trump criticized for promoting loyalists in response to dissent within the GOP.

Kristi Noem’s “Golden Parachute” Gig

[19:04]
- Noem, after being fired as DHS Secretary, is appointed “Special Envoy for the Shield of Americas,” a job created by Trump with vague remit.
  - Matt: “This is, quote, a golden parachute job in that he ‘doubts she has any idea what she’s even doing.’ ”
- Jane (about Noem): “That’s like, okay, you’re gonna let your golden retriever sit on the porch and just see, you know, keep adversaries at bay, but not with Kristi Noem because she hates dogs.” [19:31]

Doge Bro DEI Deposition: Tech Meets Bureaucracy

[20:01]
- Deposition of Doge staffer Justin Fox for using ChatGPT to cut National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) grants. He can’t define DEI beyond “what was in the E.O.”
- Matt: “Spoken like a true MAGA pilled tech bro.” [21:15]
- Jane: “General rule, if you say the phrase the females, a meteor should just come from the sky.” [21:42]

Safety Concerns: Trump Officials Move to Military Bases

[22:13]
- Attorney General Pam Bondi, Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, and Kristi Noem have needed to relocate out of security concerns.
- Jane: “In my imagination, they all live in one neighborhood, and that’s the worst place in the entire world. Do not ride your bike through that neighborhood. Don’t do it.” [22:26]

Memorable Quotes

“The thing about us as the United States, I mean, we’ve got to be better than other countries, and that includes accepting responsibility when things go wrong.” — Senator Mark Kelly [02:49]
“We have a president focused on not the problems he said he was going to try to solve, which is high costs and also keeping us out of conflicts. Right now, we’re in one.” — Senator Mark Kelly [06:58]
“Usually these things end by some kind of negotiated settlement… my preference would have been to stay in this negotiation.” — Senator Mark Kelly [09:56]
“So economy good, excursion. Economy bad, war.” — Jane Coaston [16:14]
“That sounds like the opposite of Mr. Rogers neighborhood. Sounds like the last place I want to be.” — Matt Berg (on Trump officials living on a military base) [22:13]
(On Justin Fox’s DEI definition): “Spoken like a true MAGA-pilled tech bro.” – Matt Berg [21:15]

Important Segments by Timestamp

[00:57] Trump’s Mission Accomplished moment, war “won” messaging
[02:35] Sen. Mark Kelly on seeking answers about the Iran elementary school strike
[04:05] The fog of war: Even congressional committees lack consistent info
[05:39] Kelly on risks of high-op-tempo strikes, accidental civilian casualties
[07:49] The cost for families: casualties, disabilities, and Senator Kelly’s gas tax bill
[09:12] Can you “declare” a war over? War’s messy, unpredictable endings
[10:51] DHS shutdown: distinctions among agencies, push for ICE reform and funding for FEMA, Coast Guard
[15:50] Trump rebrands the conflict as an “excursion,” economic talking points
[16:41] Matt Berg on Trump’s economic spin, job losses, and inflation
[19:04] Kristi Noem’s new “special envoy” post, described as a “golden parachute”
[20:01] Doge staffer’s cringe deposition: Using ChatGPT to cut NEH grants, can’t define DEI
[22:13] Trump officials and personal security — living in “the last place I want to be.”

Summary & Tone

Jane Coaston brings a direct, irreverent tone that skewers political spin and the lack of transparency in U.S. war policy. The episode uses wit and pointed questions to highlight the disconnect between official messaging (“excursion,” “we’ve won”) and lived reality (escalating conflict, casualties, economic pain). Senator Mark Kelly provides a sober, critical voice on the necessity of government accountability and consistent strategy, while the dynamic with Matt Berg extends the show’s blend of sharp critique, deadpan humor, and exasperation with bureaucratic incompetence.

The key takeaway: The cost of war goes far beyond oil — it’s measured in lives, lost trust, battered institutions, and the daily confusion and hardship inflicted on those far from power.