The War With Iran Has No Exit Plan

Summary

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Podcast Summary: What A Day

Episode: "The War With Iran Has No Exit Plan"

Date: March 10, 2026
Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Robyn Wright, Contributing Writer & Columnist, The New Yorker

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Overview

This episode centers on the rapidly escalating war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Host Jane Coaston explores shifting narratives and mixed messages from the Trump administration regarding the war’s objectives, progress, and possible end. Expert guest Robyn Wright joins in to unpack the power dynamics at play, discuss Iran’s response to regime change, assess risks of continued conflict, and highlight the disturbing absence of a clear exit strategy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Mixed Messaging from President Trump

[00:04–02:19]

• Contradictory Statements: President Trump has issued several conflicting comments within a single day about the war’s status, telling news outlets the war is "very complete," while later telling GOP lawmakers, “we go forward more determined than ever.” Finally, he assured reporters that “the war will be over very soon.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “On Monday alone, Trump said that the war is over, that the war is not over, and that the war which is not over will be over very soon.” — Jane Coaston [01:38]
  • "It's Schrodinger's war and we're the cat in the box." — Jane Coaston [02:08]

2. Iran’s New Supreme Leader

[03:06–04:35]

• Succession: Mujtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (killed in US/Israeli airstrikes on Feb 28), succeeds his father.
• Message: Robyn Wright notes this is "sticking it to the Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu," as the clerical council cements a dynastic rule, possibly extending hard-line governance for decades.
• Potential for Moderation: Mujtaba, with a public profile even more shadowy than his father's, is "highly unlikely" to alter Iran's militant trajectory.
• Notable Quote:
  • “The idea that he would dramatically shift from his father's very militant and rigid commitment to the principles of the 1979 revolution is highly unlikely." — Robyn Wright [04:23]

3. Impact of the War on Iran’s Military & Oil Infrastructure

[04:35–05:52]

• Major Damage: Joint US/Israeli operations ("Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion") have struck Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and vital oil facilities.
• Regional Risk: Despite heavy bombardment, Iran maintains capacity for asymmetric and covert attacks, threatening US and allied interests globally.
• Notable Quote:
  • "Iran has covert operations that could continue after a war… The Iranians could continue to target American interests, not just in the Gulf, but across the Middle East and even beyond.” — Robyn Wright [05:35]

4. Sustainability of US/Israeli Military Campaign

[06:36–07:37]

• Munitions Shortage: The US may not be equipped for a prolonged campaign, given existing military commitments in Ukraine and support to Gulf allies.
• Administration Denials: Officially, the White House claims stockpiles are sufficient, but Wright urges skepticism.
• Notable Quote:
  • “You just hope that somebody over at the Pentagon has calculated what the United States might need.” — Robyn Wright [07:15]

5. US and Israeli Leadership Dynamics

[07:37–09:53]

• Conflicting Goals: While Netanyahu is credited with drawing Trump into war (a long-held Israeli objective), US control over arms supply maintains American leverage.
• No Exit Plan: Both leaders seem locked in a loop, with no clear definition or strategy for ending hostilities.
• Notable Quote:
  • "The idea that you can topple a regime that's been in power for almost a half century… it's going to be very tough to just by killing one Supreme Leader and a lot of military leaders to say, well, we've done it. It's over. And that's what I worry about a lot.” — Robyn Wright [09:32]

6. Oil Leverage and Global Economic Fallout

[09:53–11:12]

• Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s control means it can choke off a fifth of global oil supplies, driving up prices and impeding Western economic stability.
• Costly Security: US efforts to safeguard shipping channels would escalate the already massive financial burden of the war.
• Notable Quote:
  • “All Iran would have to do, as it did in the 1980s, is plant a few mines in the Gulf, and then it becomes kind of a military operation for the United States.” — Robyn Wright [10:50]

7. Possible Endgame: Will the Regime Crack?

[11:12–12:07]

• Watching for Defections: The key signal of a tipping point would be military defections, which historically signaled regime collapse in 1979. Yet recent evidence suggests the military remains loyal, harshly quelling civilian protests.
• Notable Quote:
  • “At some point, does the cost benefit of continuing to fight become too high? And I don’t think we’ve gotten there yet.” — Robyn Wright [11:59]

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News Headlines Roundup

Save America Act

[16:12–17:19]

• Trump lobbies House Republicans for legislation restricting voter registration (requiring birth certificates or passports) and curbing mail-in voting and trans rights.
• Notable Quote:
  • "It'll guarantee the midterms. If you don't get it, big trouble, my opinion." — Guest [17:03]

US Bombing of Iranian School

[17:19–18:17]

• Multiple outlets confirm a US Tomahawk missile strike killed over 170, mostly children, at Ha’ri Girls School.
• Evasion: Pentagon refuses to deny responsibility directly.
  • "I would say that it’s being investigated, which is the only answer I'm prepared to give." — Pete Hegseth [18:12]

Tech & Antitrust

[18:17–19:39]

• Anthropic sues Trump admin over AI supply chain blacklist; Pentagon seeks more control over AI providers.
• DOJ settles with Live Nation/Ticketmaster, which avoids a corporate breakup despite monopoly concerns.

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Memorable Quotes

• “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all.” — President Trump [02:19]
• “I think he's going to follow his father's path on every issue.” — Robyn Wright [04:20]
• “It's Schrodinger's war and we're the cat in the box.” — Jane Coaston [02:08]
• "Nobody has figured out an exit strategy.” — Robyn Wright [09:26]
• “We’re already spending $900 million a day on this war, and this would add billions to the price tag. And for how long?” — Robyn Wright [10:16]

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Closing

Robyn Wright concludes no one has a clear endgame in sight, warning that Iran’s military loyalty and oil leverage present barriers the US and Israel are not prepared to overcome easily. The episode encapsulates the high cost, confusion, and the global risk of a conflict with no visible exit ramp.

For further listening:
Robyn Wright, The New Yorker
Jane Coaston, What A Day
New episodes every weekday at 5 a.m. EST.

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Transcript

[Robyn Wright]

Foreign

[Jane Coastin]

It's Tuesday, March 10th. I'm Gene Coastin, and this is what a day. The show wondering why President Donald Trump is reportedly giving people shoes. Yes, shoes. According to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, Trump is obsessed with a particular brand of dress shoes, and he is now just giving them to members of his staff, agency leaders, lawmakers, basically any man in his orbit. This is after allegedly guessing their shoe size in front of them. And everyone is too afraid of Trump not to wear them. Donald Trump or some ancient European king. Who can tell? On today's show, President Trump continues promoting the questionably named Save America act, which almost certainly would do the opposite. And the Department of Justice makes a deal literally no one asked for with Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster. Bad news. Your Beyonce tickets will not be getting cheaper anytime soon. But let's start with the war in the Middle East. It's been a little over a week since the United States and Israel started bombing Iran. And we've heard more than a dozen explanations from the Trump administration about why exactly this war began. But if that wasn't confusing enough, now we're starting to hear new, wildly conflicting messaging from President Trump about the end of the war. On Monday morning, Trump told CBS News that the war is, quote, very complete. Pretty much. But later, during a meeting with GOP lawmakers at their annual retreat, Trump made clear that the war was not, in fact, complete, saying, quote, we go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long running danger once and for all. Then even later in the day, he told reporters that the war will be over, quote, very soon. So on Monday alone, Trump said that the war is over, that the war is not over, and that the war which is not over will be over very soon. A reporter asked for clarification.

[Robyn Wright]

Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it and how long should Americans be prepared for?

[Guest Commentator]

Well, I think you could say it

[Jane Coastin]

both it's Schrodinger's war and we're the cat in the box. But don't worry, because whatever the US Is doing in Iran, it's all going great. Here's Trump at that GOP retreat on Monday.

[Guest Commentator]

You know, Iran was supposed to be this big, powerful country. We rapped the hell out of them. And, you know, I don't know when they cry uncle, but they should have cried it two days ago, Right?

[Jane Coastin]

But as we've mentioned on the show, Iran has a new supreme leader Mujtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes on February 28th. This is not what the US or Israel wants. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is reportedly on board with assassinating the new supreme Leader if he doesn't give in to US Demands. So where does the war go from here? To find out, I spoke with Robin Wright, a contributing writer and columnist for the New Yorker who covers U.S. foreign policy in Iran and the Middle East. Robyn, welcome to Water Day.

[Robyn Wright]

Thanks so much. I'm really thrilled to be doing this.

[Jane Coastin]

Mujtibahabini, the son of Iran's late supreme leader, has been selected to replace his father. What message do you think that sends to the US And Israel that the clerical council chose him?

[Robyn Wright]

Well, it's clearly kind of sticking it to the Trump administration as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is, in effect, creating a new dynasty, and most of us is only 56 years old. He could be around if he survives for a long time. And he will have ultimate veto power over political, political, economic and military policy, potentially for decades to come.

[Jane Coastin]

As you just mentioned, he's got ultimate power in Iran right now. Is there any chance that he might create a more politically moderate Iran, or is that just not. That's just not in the cards.

[Robyn Wright]

Well, one of the most interesting things about most about Khamenei is that he has been rarely photographed, really not spoken in public. He teaches classes at the home seminary. But. But he's been his father's closest advisor. And the idea that he would dramatically shift from his father's very militant and rigid commitment to the principles of the 1979 revolution is highly unlikely. I think he's going to follow his father's path on every issue.

[Jane Coastin]

How much damage have the US And Israel inflicted on Iran's military capabilities?

[Robyn Wright]

I think enormous damage has been done by the Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Operation Roaring lion by the Israelis on Iran's particularly its ballistic missiles and most recently its oil facilities, as we've seen, which caused the rise of the barrel of oil to over $100. Iran has built up a huge arsenal of ballistic missiles, which after its controversial nuclear program, was its most important asset. And the US Goal is to eliminate the missiles, but most particularly the launchers, because you can't fire missiles without launchers. So that's where during the first week we saw so much focus you mentioned,

[Jane Coastin]

that we're focused on their ballistic missile launchers. I know that they had a underground facility for their munitions stockpile. But clearly they are still posing a massive risk to countries in the region. You know, we've seen Dubai get hit by example. So what risk do they pose to the region? And what risk do they pose more broadly?

[Robyn Wright]

So Iran has always been a risk since the 1979 revolution. I mean, I lived in Beirut for many years, and I remember the bombings that went off at two US Embassies, and of course, the Marine compound of peacekeepers, which was the largest non nuclear bomb on earth since World War II. And so Iran has covert operations that could continue after a war. So even after the US Decides, as Trump is trying to indicate now, that the war is complete or nearly complete, the Iranians could continue to target American interests, not just in the Gulf, but across the Middle east and even beyond.

[Jane Coastin]

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the US May not have a deep enough munitions stockpile for a prolonged war. And as we were just talking about, Trump basically wants this to be kind of wrapped up fairly soon when it comes to weaponry. How sustainable is this military campaign?

[Robyn Wright]

Well, that's, I think, a great question. And the administration keeps saying, oh, yes, we have enough, not to worry. But remember, we're also supposed to be providing or selling to NATO the munitions needed for Ukraine to fight the war against Russia. And so I think there are big questions. Plus, we're providing the interceptors for our Gulf allies to prevent Iranian missiles and drones from attacking them. So you just hope that somebody over at the Pentagon has calculated what the United States might need. And, of course, this war can be fought in ways that are asymmetric, that aren't necessarily big bombs against each other.

[Jane Coastin]

I think my next question is one that I'm sure you've been thinking a lot about. And basically everyone watching this has been wondering. On Sunday, President Trump said that deciding when and how to end the war will be a, quote, mutual decision with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The. But their goals do not seem entirely aligned to me at all. And we've seen that with the bombing of Iranian oil facilities, which reportedly Trump and the Trump administration have not been happy about. That's coming from Israel. Who would you say has more power in this relationship with regard to this war, Trump or Netanyahu?

[Robyn Wright]

Well, in different ways, each of them. Netanyahu really drew Trump into this war. This is something he's acknowledged that he had dreamt about for 40 years. He has wanted to eliminate the Islamic Republic. He's wanted to make sure that Israel has the kind of relationship with Iran that it had before the revolution when they were very close allies in many ways against the Arab countries in between them. Now, Trump has the advantage because he's the bigger power. And, of course, the US Provides all Israel's weaponry. But I think you're right that Trump could declare an end of the war or that it's mostly complete, and then Netanyahu will find some way to say, well, look, there's some action that Israel will want to go back in in a big way to say, look, the war isn't over. So I think the problem is, and you know this, that there's no end game anywhere. Nobody has figured out an exit strategy. What do we want to see at the end of. And the idea that you can topple a regime that's been in power for almost a half century, that has the largest military in the Middle east, more than 1 million, if you include reservists and vast oil resources, that it's going to be very tough to just by killing one supreme leader and a lot of military leaders to say, well, we've done it. It's over. And that's what I worry about a lot.

[Jane Coastin]

You wrote that Iran still has leverage, in part because of its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes through. On Monday, G7 officials held an emergency meeting to discuss the war's impact on oil prices. Is there anything else that G7 countries can do that would diminish Iran's upper hand when it comes to oil?

[Robyn Wright]

Well, the problem is the Strait of Hormuz, at its narrowest point, is only 21 miles wide. And Iran, because of the geography, has always had the ultimate say on who is allowed in and out of the Strait. And so at the moment, the Trump administration has talked about providing escorts for some of the tankers coming out of the Gulf. But that would be incredibly costly. I mean, we're already spending $900 million a day on this war, and this would add billions to the price tag. And for how long? All Iran would have to do, as it did in the 1980s, is plant A few mines in the Gulf, and then it becomes kind of a military operation for the United States. So the options are limited in the moment to ensure that all ships crossing the Strait can get through.

[Jane Coastin]

What will you be watching for next with this war?

[Robyn Wright]

I guess the most important thing is to see whether anyone in the Iranian military begins to defect. It was in 1979 the last straw for the monarchy when the Iranian military, the Shah's army, many of them anyway, decided that they didn't want to fight shooting at Iranian citizens. Now we've seen, unfortunately, in December and January, during these inspiring protests by hundreds of thousands across the country, that the Iranian military was indeed willing to shoot its own citizens. And I suspect they will do it again. The question becomes, at some point, does the cost benefit of continuing to fight become too high? And I don't think we've gotten there yet.

[Jane Coastin]

Robyn, thank you so much for taking the time to join me.

[Robyn Wright]

I'm so delighted to talk with you.

[Jane Coastin]

That was my conversation with Robyn Wright, contributing writer and columnist for the New Yorker. More news is on the way, but first, thank you for sticking with me and my squeaky voice yesterday. As you can tell, we're on the mend, but I really appreciated all of your support and RFK junior Comparison jokes. And if you'd like to go one step further and support the show, I'd be even more grateful. Please make sure to subscribe, leave a 5 star review on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More news after some ads. This episode of what a Day is brought to you by Wildgrain. Wildgrain is the first baked from frozen subscription box for sourdough breads, artisanal pastries and fresh pastas. Unlike many store bought options, Wild Grain uses simple ingredients you can pronounce and a slow fermentation process that can be easier on your belly and richer in nutrients and antioxidants. Plus, all items conveniently bake in 25 minutes or less with no thawing required. Wildgrain's boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their variety box, they have a gluten free box, vegan box and a new protein box. I love chocolate chip cookies. Seriously. Just ask anyone who knows me and Wildgreen's Giant Chocolate Chunk cookies are the very best. Seriously, imagine having fresh bakery quality bread, pastries and pasta at home without any trips to the store. And don't just take my word for it. They have over 40,000 five star reviews and have been voted the best food subscription box by USA TODAY for three years in a row. For a limited time, Wild Grain is offering our listeners $30 off your first box plus free Croissants for Life when you go to wildgrain.comwade to start your subscription today. That's $30 off your first box and free Croissants for Life when YOU visit wildgrain.com wad or you can use promo code WAD at checkout WADADAY is brought to you by Bilt. I don't like paying rent. Actually, nobody likes paying rent, but BILT makes it feel a little better. BILT is the loyalty program for renters that rewards you monthly with points and exclusive benefits in your neighborhood. Let me explain. With bilt, every rent payment earns you points that can be used towards flights, hotels, Lyft rides, Amazon.com purchases, and so much more. And here's something I'm really excited about. Now BILT members can earn points on mortgage payments for the first time. That means you can get rewarded wherever you live and unlock exclusive benefits from more than 45,000 restaurants, fitness studios, pharmacies, and other neighborhood partners. Personally, I'd redeem my points for my student loan balances or a down payment on a home. It's simple. Paying rent is better with bilt. And now owning a home can be better with bilt, too. Earn rewards and get something back wherever you live. Join the loyalty program for renters at joinbilt.com wad that's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com wad make sure to use our URL so they know we sent you.

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[Jane Coastin]

Here's what else we're following today. Header lines

[Guest Commentator]

the Save act it was all right. Nobody knew what the hell it was, including me. I kept saying, what's this Save America Act? Don't ever say Save act again. It's a loser. The Save Act. Nobody has any idea what was. What are we trying to Save. It's the Save America Act.

[Jane Coastin]

President Trump spoke to House Republicans at his Florida golf resort on Monday about a slew of things, including the SAVE Act. I mean, the Save America act, whatever the name, it would restrict voting by requiring birth certificates or passports during voter registration. The House passed it already, but luckily it has less traction in the Senate. Trump said he wants the House to add provisions that would curb mail in voting and restrict transgender rights. He said getting the act passed is a matter of, quote, national survival.

[Guest Commentator]

I'm making my biggest plea tonight. It'll make you, and I'm not doing it for this reason at all. It'll guarantee the midterms. It'll guarantee the midterms. If you don't get it, big trouble. My opinion.

[Jane Coastin]

But that isn't why he's saying this. No, no, of course not. In a true social post Sunday, Trump said he would not sign any other bill until the Save America act is passed. Evidence is mounting that the US military was responsible for a strike the Ha' Ri Girls School in southern Iran, killing over 170 people, including many children. The New York Times, NBC News, and other outlets have reviewed footage of the bombing and confirmed that a Tomahawk missile was used in the attack. Among the countries involved in the war, only the US has access to that missile. President Trump had been saying Iran was responsible, and Secretary of War little boy Pete Hegseth has said little about it, even when he was given several opportunities by CBS journalist Major Garrett on 60 Minute Sunday.

[Guest Commentator]

If you could tell the American public it definitively was not us, you would tell us, wouldn't you? I would. I would say that it's being investigated, which is the only answer I'm prepared to give.

[Jane Coastin]

Sounds like it's being investigated, and I'd guess it will be for the next, oh, two years or so. A group of Democratic senators released a statement over the weekend calling for the bombing to be, quote, fully and impartially reviewed, which I think means someone other than Pete Hegseth should oversee the investigation. The artificial intelligence company Anthropic sued the Trump administration Monday for labeling it a security related supply chain risk. The company says the government's designation last week is part of a, quote, unlawful campaign of retaliation. The feud started a few months ago when the Department of Defense insisted it should be able to use Anthropic's AI tech for all lawful purposes. But Anthropic wanted to put limitations on uses like mass surveillance of Americans or weapons that would fire without human input. I wonder why, when Anthropic wouldn't agree to its terms. The Pentagon labeled it a supply chain risk, a designation that could stop it from being used by military contractors and not just the government itself. Anthropic CEO Dario Amadeh talked to CBS about the fallout in February.

[Guest Commentator]

When we're designated a supply chain risk, they say like, you know, you have to be off all of our systems. And I've talked to people on the ground, uniformed military officers who say this is essential. Not having this will set us back six months, 12 months, maybe longer.

[Jane Coastin]

Of course, the Pentagon has recently made deals with Both Xai and OpenAI, the companies behind Grok and ChatGPT, to provide their technology for classified systems. It's starting to feel a bit like Real Housewives, but for nerds and potentially deadly. And a loss for people who have paid way too much in concert tickets over the last few years. Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster, reached a settlement with the Department of Justice on Monday. The deal abruptly ends a trial that could have changed the concert business forever. Back in 2024, the DOJ and 40 states sued Live Nation, which controls about 90% of the ticketing market at the time. They accused the company of operating an illegal monopoly and wanted Live Nation to divest Ticketmaster. But now, just a week into the trial, the DOJ announced that Live Nation wouldn't have to be broken up after all. Instead, the company will pay a fine and change some ticketing practices. It's almost like someone different is running things. However, a bipartisan group of states that were part of the lawsuit has refused to sign on to the settlement agreement and said they will continue to pursue Live Nation in court. Hey, side note, guess who is on Live Nation's board? Current Kennedy Center President and former Acting Director of National Intelligence Rick Grinnell. Weird. And that's the. Before we go, we're less than nine months away from the midterms and we have a lot of work that you can do right now. November will decide control of Congress and if Trump maintains his Republican trifecta. And our friends at Votes of America are here to help. They'll give you tips on how and when and where to donate to make sure your money goes the furthest and how to confidently talk to the people in your life about midterms and key issues and opportunities to take action with your community. Go to votesaveamerica.com and sign up to be a part of the work this year. Then send the sign up link to five friends paid for by VoteSave America. Learn more at votesaveamerica.com this ad has not been authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a review.

[Robyn Wright]

Subscribe.

[Jane Coastin]

Don't get in between Massachusetts Democratic Governor Maura Healey and her Duncan and tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just about how what a Day. Newsletter writer Matt berg spoke to Governor Healy about Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Going after Duncan. And she said, my message to him

[Robyn Wright]

is like, before you go picking on our Duncan, why don't you focus on the measles outbreak? You know, why don't you focus on, by the way, the measles outbreak, something that you have called created RFK by taking away vaccines and creating all this skepticism about vaccines.

[Jane Coastin]

Like me. What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail] subscribe I'm Jane Costen and she's not wrong. Except about Dunkin'. That's not coffee, that's a milkshake. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Foer. Our producer is Kaitlyn Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Ali, and Ethan Oberman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Cantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America. E.

[Craig Melvin]

I'm Craig Melvin. Cheers.

[Robyn Wright]

Cheers. Cheers.

[Craig Melvin]

I've always been a glass half full kind of guy, and now I'm talking to some people who look at the world that way, too. Some really fascinating folks who share their defense, defining moments, their triumphs, their challenges. Their stories are funny and quite candid. So I hope you'll join me each week. And who knows, you might just come away with your own Glass Half Full.

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