Marco Rubio (2:44)

Yeah, I mean, I keep people, you know, fixating on that, here's the bottom line on it is we expect to see changes in Venezuela, changes of all kinds, long term, short term. We'd love to see all kinds of changes, but the most immediate changes are the ones that are in the national interest of the United States.

Jane Costen (2:59)

That's pretty clear. And while the Venezuelan opposition has backed Nobel Prize winner Maria Carina Machado as a potential presidential candidate, the Trump administration is supporting Venezuelan Vice President Dulcie Rodriguez, who is a big backer of Maduro, also the country's Minister of Petroleum, which I'm sure is just a coincidence. After all, Rubio explained on Sunday that sidestepping Machado is just about expediency. So to talk more about Venezuela, the prosecution of Maduro and what the hell is going to happen now, I spoke to Juan Sebastian Gonzalez. He's the former National Security Council Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere under the Biden administration. Juan, welcome back to Water Day.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (3:39)

Thanks for having me.

Jane Costen (3:40)

So, first things first. What do we know about the United States capture of Maduro and his wife early Saturday morning?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (3:47)

Yes. So everybody woke up to the sound or news of US Military attacks inside of Caracas, Venezuela. The US Says Venezuela under the de facto President Nicolas Maduro became a threat to the United States. You know, the trafficking of drugs, organized crime, corruption, and basically a strategic foothold for China, Russia, Iran. And overnight, US Special Forces carried out a surprise operation. They captured Nicolas Maduro and his his wife, Celia Flores. They flew him out. Maduro is now in in U.S. custody in the Southern District of New York and is expected to face charges tied to drug trafficking and to the trafficking of weapons. They describe him as an Arco terrorist that's involved in a conspiracy to move large amounts of cocaine.

Jane Costen (4:30)

Specifically with this military operation. I was reminded of the effort to capture Saddam Hussein or previous efforts where the military operation reportedly took months of planning to execute and was very like, thorough and well planned. But is there any clarity so far as to whether or not there's a plan for what happens now, now that Maduro is in US custody?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (4:50)

Not really. I will say I've been working in Venezuela for a very long time and I never thought that Special Forces would be able to get in there. They've been coup proofing that place for over 26 years. It's a high denial environment. It's an urban area. So amazing that Delta Force was able to do it. I think the closest historic analogy is Panama in 89 and 90. But Secretary Rubo gave an interview at Face the Nation where my takeaway was they basically either moved away or lied about their intent in Venezuela, which was initially like a democratic project. But right now the administration is treating it like a strategic and economic takeover problem. It's unclear what's going to happen next. They've allowed Delsey Rodriguez, who's the sitting vice president, to remain in power. So this is not regime change, it's autocrat change. Basically we're now dealing with Maduro light. And what Rubio basically said was, you know, they're going to continue to impose the oil embargo on Venezuela to try to pressure her to do what is right. And by that I think you look at the President's press conference and it's, they want the oil and the resources inside of the country, but this could go very much sideways. And there really isn't. They haven't articulated how the US Would do it, but they're definitely going to own it because the President has said the US Will run Venezuela for a period and push for a transition.

Jane Costen (6:06)

Yeah, I was really struck by how this operation seemed to be focused purely on Maduro. You mentioned Vice President Delcio Rodriguez, who, you know, Wall Street Journal said is just as much of a hardened socialist as Maduro was and is also a big supporter and backer of Maduro. Did that strike you that other government leaders weren't targeted, even those who are believed to have been part of whatever trafficking operations the government is accusing Maduro of organizing?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (6:33)

Yes and no. I was surprised because what the Venezuelan opposition had been calling for was a hundred day plan where 14 of the kind of highest level ranking members around Nicolas Maduro would be removed. That there would be like a security presence by international force to help kind of facilitate the entry of the duly elected leader, Edmundo Gonzalez, who won the election in July of 2024. A lot of the commentary around Venezuela was this question of how is the President going to de escalate from this. You have 10 to 13% of the entire US Navy off the shore of Venezuela. How are they actually going to basically declare victory? And this seems to be an effort by them to have their cake and eat it too, which is they got Maduro, they got their man, they can check the box, they aren't putting boots on the ground and now they got the oil. What is really I think concerning is it seems like they've thrown the Venezuelan opposition completely under the bus. And it's unclear to see how that will play out because they haven't articulated whether they're going to actually promote an electoral process or if they're Just going to try to deal with, as I mentioned, Maduro Light Delta. Rodriguez actually has a reputation. I've met her, had a couple interactions with her. She's probably the most effective, effective administrator and bureaucrat of the bunch. And there was a report, I believe, in the Wall Street Journal where it said that the administration was very surprised and impressed by how she was able to increase oil output despite their oil embargo. So they're keeping her in place to basically keep the lights on and keep the oil flowing.

Jane Costen (7:58)

Yeah. It's interesting because the government is saying this was a law enforcement action. It originally looked like regime change, and that's how it sounded for the last couple of months. And that's how I'm sure people within the Venezuelan opposition took it to be. But now it seems it's entirely about oil.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (8:14)

Oh, absolutely. It's absolutely about oil. And you've seen statements by Senator Mark Warner, Senator Randy Kim, Ruben Gallegos. They've called this out because I think the authority the administration has used is a law enforcement authority to just go in and get their guy, execute a warrant and get this guy out. But this was a military action where they should actually have gone to Congress for authorization. So it's a question about does the President of the United States actually have this authority? And he does not and should never have this authority.

Jane Costen (8:39)

Is there any precedent in the US for this kind of military action against a foreign government? I'm thinking of Manuel Noriega in Panama in 1989, who was never elected. He was a dictator. Is there any comparison there?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (8:52)

There is in the sense that, like, it was a law enforcement action to go after a drug trafficker. But, you know, we didn't just grab him, we stayed there. We also had a. We owned the canal at that point. It was under our control and we had a huge military presence with over 25,000 Marines in the country. It was a huge undertaking, and that's not what this was. I think what's interesting here is perhaps if you look at the Iraq analogy on this and you do some comparison, I think maybe there's a lesson that the administration has learned, which is that de baathification in Iraq was a huge mistake. So here I think what they're trying to do is keep the institution of government running and try to have their cake and eat it too, by not getting into the country, but by trying to kind of run it from outside by imposing the oil blockade and sanctions. I was joking that everybody in the United States is getting called back to the office. But we're teleworking the transition in Venezuela. I don't know how well that's going to actually fly.

Jane Costen (9:45)

Maduro and his wife are expected in court today in the Southern District of New York. What charges are they facing?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (9:51)

It's a narco terrorism drug case, so they're accused of the possession and trafficking of machine guns and the trafficking of drugs, which is kind of interesting if you compare it to a similar case, which is the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez. Similar charges also in this other district of New York.

Jane Costen (10:09)

If I recall, that former Honduran president was pardoned.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (10:13)

He was pardoned. So I think in this case, it's, you know, each drug trafficker really depends. It just seems like the selective application of law enforcement.

Jane Costen (10:21)

Now, I think it's really worth separating how America and Americans are handling this whole episode and how Venezuelans are, because I know I've spoken to some folks who are from Venezuela, and I'm wondering if you have, too, because a lot of people are celebrating. They are celebrating Maduro's exit, and they are very hopeful about the future. So I'm wondering, one, what have you been hearing, hearing from folks in Venezuela? And two, what do you make of their hopefulness, their excitement, and what the future could look like?

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (10:52)

I think, first of all, that the departure of Nicolas Maduro is a bipartisan issue. I think the debate here in the United States is about how to actually do that. So I think they were right to be hopeful on the day that Maduro was taken out. I think the rug got pulled out from under them after the Trump press conference where he basically, I think, threw Maria Corina Machado under the bus. You have some Venezuelans now that are, I think, shocked that the administration is doing this, even though I think Trump has been pretty clearly opening about oil inside of Venezuela and the payoff potentially for the United States. Then on the other side, you have what we call Magazolans. And those folks, I think, are continuing to delude themselves that this administration will eventually find a way to install Maria Corina Machado. You saw Diaz Balart give a press conference, Congressman Diaz Balart with Congressman Jimenez and Congresswoman Amaril Villa Salazar, where they were adamant that Maria Corina Machado would be installed. So it's been an interesting break between Rubio, who's fundamentally a South Florida politician, and some of his closest political allies. And to me, I think the conclusion from that is that I think Rubio is a true believer. I think Rubio does want to put Maria Corinne Machado in place I think Trump, on the other hand, this is my view, has basically constrained Rubio's ability to actually do this because he does not want to get stuck into this. And the outcome is going to be, if this succeeds and there's a chance that Rubio pulls us off, right, they have a transition, everything works, there's no violence. I think there's a very low chance of that. Trump gets the victory, he gets the win. If this goes horribly sideways, then Rubio goes under the bus. And so I think Trump is in a great position and Rubio, I think, has to be able to deliver what.

Jane Costen (12:29)

Happens next in Venezuela.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (12:31)

Yeah. So the first one, as I alluded to, I think is a managed transition. That's probably the best case scenario. The Venezuelan constitution requires that if the president has been removed, dies or is inability in the first half of his or her term, that they have to have an elections within 30 days. So US pressure could lead to elections or a real transition process that starts, power is shared or maybe handed off in a way that prevents kind of the revenge killings in the country from breaking apart. And Americans get fewer migrants at the border over time, less criminal flow, more stable energy markets. Scenario two, which seems like the one that we're in right now, is again, Delsey Rodriguez becomes the public leader and the security forces and criminal networks stay in place. Reforms are theater. And what Americans get out of that is continued crime and corruption spillover, continued migration pressure in a Venezuela that stays unstable but is managed. The last, and I think a very likely scenario, it's the worst one, is this power struggle turns violent, Armed groups expand. You have not just the military, but you have illegal armed groups all over that country and pseudo paramilitary groups. And the US ends up getting pulled deeper in their involvement because it owns this. They break it, you buy it. And so this, I think what Americans get here is a long and expensive foreign commitment, more regional instability and frankly like a bigger opening, strategic opening for China and others to play the we do business, the US does chaos card in the Americas.

Jane Costen (13:56)

Juan, thank you so much again for joining me.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (13:59)

Yeah, thanks for having me.

Jane Costen (14:00)

That was my conversation with Juan Sebastian Gonzalez, former National Security Council Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere under the Biden administration. We'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp 2026. Doesn't have to be the year you do more, what if it were the year you do less? Less worrying, less anxiety, letting go of perfectionism and fear. Therapy can help you figure out what's weighing you down, what's holding you back, and what you can leave behind in 2025. BetterHelp therapists work according to a strict code of conduct and are fully licensed in the US and BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences and their 12 years of experience and industry leading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations. BetterHelp makes it easy to get matched online with a qualified therapist. Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com wad that's betterhelph e l-p.com wad what a day is brought to you by Deleteme Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online. At a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable, it's easier than ever to find personal information about people online. Having your address, phone number and family members names hanging out on the Internet can have actual consequences in the real world and makes everyone vulnerable. With Deleteme, you can protect your privacy or the privacy of your business from doxxing attacks before sensitive information can be exploited. The New York Times Wirecutter has named Deleteme their top pick for data removal services. As someone with an active online presence, privacy is really important to me. I do everything online from banking to talking about politics, so it's essential I have online security on lock. DeleteMe can help take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Deleteme now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your delete me plan when you go to JoinDeleteMe.com wad and use promo code wad at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to JoinDeleteMe.com Wade and enter code WAAD at checkout. That's JoinDeleteMe.com waad code WAAD tonight's meal.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (16:32)

Tilapia Surprise with Boiled cabbage. Begin cooking steps 1 through 50 now.

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Jane Costen (17:03)

Here's what else we're following today. Head of lines.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (17:08)

Rubio, I just heard him in your interview, said they're doing what's good for the American people. If they want to do what's good for the American people, it should not be some escapade in Venezuela. It should be focusing on lowering the cost of living.

Jane Costen (17:22)

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made clear he's bringing the affordability message into the new year in an interview Sunday on ABC's this Week with George Stephanopoulos. Congressional reaction to the Trump administration's military action in Venezuela has basically split along party lines. Democrats acknowledged Maduro's presidency was illegitimate, but largely condemned the action as unauthorized and dangerous. They warned it lacked congressional approval, violated international law, and risked escalating US Military involvement abroad. Republicans largely rallied behind the operation, accepting Trump's argument that the strike was justified as part of executing a US Arrest warrant for Nicolas Maduro. Ohio Republican Representative Jim Jordan defended the Trump administration to Dana Bash on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (18:06)

I trust Secretary Rubio. I trust Secretary Hank. I trust President Trump and his making decisions that, again, are in the best interest of the American people. And frankly, I trust our military.

Jane Costen (18:15)

Stunning bravery later in Jordan's interview. To be fair, he was very skeptical about a president.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (18:22)

Contrast the president's actions, what took place two days ago, what took place with Midnight Hammer when he stopped Iran. Contrast that with the previous administration. Contrast that with Joe. Joe Biden led a Chinese spy balloon. All right, we were across.

Jane Costen (18:36)

Let's focus.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (18:37)

Let's focus on the President.

Jane Costen (18:39)

Trump, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Connecticut Democratic Representative Jim Himes, responded to Jordan's comments later in the show.

Jim Himes (18:47)

He's being asked to explain an imperial adventure.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (18:50)

Right?

Jim Himes (18:50)

I mean, you did a pretty good job. An imperial adventure from the guy who was going to be America first and not get into stupid wars. And his answer is, I trust the president. I trust the president. I trust the president. That is giving the game away because two thirds of my Republican colleagues in the Congress wake up every single morning and say, what can I do today to prove my loyalty to the president, United States. And Jim Jordan, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, seems to be unaware that our whole system, our whole system, Dana, is set up to provide checks and balances that the job of a member of Congress is to approach the president, regardless of that president's party, with skepticism.

Jane Costen (19:26)

That ship sailed a while ago. Representative Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is officially resigning from Congress today. We'll remember the far right lawmaker for promoting anti Semitic conspiracy theories about space lasers causing California wildfires, threatening violence against her Democratic colleagues, and spewing homophobic and transphobic hate. But in recent months, she has been one of the few congressional Republicans willing to criticize certain Trump administration policies. In a lengthy post on Twitter over the weekend, Greene pointed out the hypocrisy of political President Trump's decision to attack Venezuela and forcibly remove President Nicolas Maduro from office. Chief among her critiques is the fact that if this was all really about keeping fentanyl out of the US it doesn't make sense to go after Venezuela, which is not actually a major source of fentanyl. Greene also said in her statement that she believes the Trump administration's main motivation for capturing Maduro is to gain control over Venezuela's oral reserves in order to then, quote, ensure stability for the next obvious regime change war in Iran. For all of Greene's many, many, many faults, at least she's willing to point out that it's hard to put America first if you're also running Venezuela. On Sunday, freshly inaugurated New York City Mayor Zahra Bomdani told reporters that he spoke with President Trump to express his disapproval over the US Military's capture of Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is now being held in a federal jail in Brooklyn.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (20:55)

I called the president and spoke with him directly to register my opposition to this act and to make clear that it was an opposition based on being opposed to a pursuit of regime change, to the violation of federal international law, and a desire to see that be consistent each and every day.

Jane Costen (21:17)

Momdani also said that this attempted regime change will impact the, quote, tens of thousands of Venezuelans who call this city home and that his focus is on their safety. The new mayor has been busy reversing the work of his predecessor, Eric Adams. Momdani's first executive order revoked all executive orders signed by Adams After September 26, 2024, the day that the former mayor was indicted on federal criminal charges. Mamdani explained the order by saying, quote, that was a date that marked a moment when many New Yorkers decided that politics held nothing for them but more of the same and Turkish airline points. Don't forget those.

Juan Sebastian Gonzalez (21:57)

I thought the easiest one would be. One of the easier ones would be Russia, Ukraine. It's not, and they both have done some pretty bad things.

Jane Costen (22:08)

That was President Trump speaking to reporters on Saturday, admitting that this whole international diplomacy thing is kinda hard. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar a Lago late last month to discuss a 20 point peace plan proposed by Ukraine, which Zelenskyy later said the two sides are mostly in agreement on. This week, Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials are meeting in Paris with representatives from Europe and the US to discuss security guarantees from the peace plan. Those guarantees include include the deployment of European led troops to Ukraine, as well as the US Serving as a, quote, backstop in the event that Russia attacks Ukraine in the future. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last month that Russia would not accept a peace plan that allows for European troops in Ukraine ahead of this week's security talks. Zelenskyy also expressed some support for the Trump administration's capture of Nicolas Maduro, telling reporters on Saturday, if dictators can be dealt with in this way, then the United States of America knows what it should do next. Indeed. And that's the news. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe. Leave a Review Contemplate how Grok AI Twitter's Built In Chatbot spent its holiday break making non consensual sexual images of young women and children. And tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading and not just about how the chatbot was producing, quote, sexualized images of children in response to prompts from users, which is a violation both of federal law and just every form of human decency like me. What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe@crooked.com subscribe I'm Jane Kosten, and in case you're wondering, Elon Musk, who owns Twitter, responded to the mass posting of none consensual sexualized images by a chatbot on its own website by posting the Laugh Cry emoji. Water Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Foer and Chris Allport. Our producer is Kaitlyn Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg and Ethan Oberman. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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