Trump Still Has A Grip On Indiana

Summary

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Podcast Summary: What A Day – "Trump Still Has A Grip On Indiana"

Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Jon Favreau (Co-host, Pod Save America)
Date: May 8, 2026
Duration: ~22 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the latest developments in U.S. election politics, focusing on the intensifying influence of Donald Trump within the Republican Party, particularly in Indiana, and the broader implications of accelerated and partisan redistricting across key states. With the midterms approaching, host Jane Coaston brings in Jon Favreau to analyze how shifting district maps, ongoing court battles, and changing voter enthusiasm are reshaping the electoral landscape. The episode also features coverage of controversial SCOTUS decisions on voting rights, ongoing international tensions, and a sprinkle of lighter moments, including an unusual Trump-initiated poll about fighting an 8-year-old in the Oval Office.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Trump’s Enduring Influence Over Republican Politics in Indiana

• Primary Results Signal Trump’s Grip

  • Several Republican incumbents in Indiana lost their seats in the primaries after opposing Trump-backed redistricting attempts.
  • Favreau notes that Trump's approval is uniquely strong in Indiana compared to other states:

    "Donald Trump's approval rating in Indiana is above water, right? One of the few states where that's true."
    (Jon Favreau, 02:00)

• Low Turnout, High MAGA Energy

  • Jane observes that primaries naturally draw the most ardent supporters, amplifying Trump’s sway:

    "It feels like this is going to be, like, the most MAGA of the most MAGA voting anyway."
    (Jane Coaston, 02:22)

Redistricting Chaos Post-SCOTUS Decision

• Redrawing the Maps – Partisan and Racial Implications

  • States like Tennessee are fast-tracking new maps that often eliminate competitive or “blue” districts, a move made possible after the Supreme Court's decision weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
  • Jane underscores the thin difference between permissible partisan and impermissible racial gerrymandering:

    "Apparently you can do partisan redraws, but you can't do racial redraws. It just so happens that the partisan redraws are racial redraws."
    (Jane Coaston, 05:46)

• The “Race to the Bottom”

  • Favreau lays out a stark vision for the future:

    "By the time you get to 2028 or 2030... states where there is a Democratic majority in the state legislature, they are all blue... and red states... they are entirely red... That is a very polarized country... probably bad for democracy."
    (Jon Favreau, 04:37)

• Legal and Political Uncertainty

  • The implementation of new maps faces legal challenges, especially when deadlines for candidate filings are abruptly shifted.
  • Favreau provides a rundown of which states’ maps might actually go into effect: Tennessee’s most likely, Louisiana’s also probable, while South Carolina and Alabama are less certain.
    (Jon Favreau, 06:18–07:14)

Voter Turnout and Momentum Ahead of the Midterms

• Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections

  • Democratic turnout is outpacing that of Republicans, as seen especially in urban Indiana counties.

  • Favreau:

    "Democrats are much more enthusiastic. They are more likely to show up in these midterms, and Republicans are less likely to show up."
    (Jon Favreau, 08:04)

  • Special election results are better for Democrats than current polling suggests.

• Potential for Unusual Democratic Successes

  • Jane wonders if the environment is so energized that Democrats who “wouldn’t have gotten into office” a decade ago stand real chances now.
  • Favreau says while not quite a Tea Party-style wave, Dem fortunes could approach 2018 “blue wave” levels, especially in the House. Senate still harder; Dems need to win in deep red states like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas.

The End of Primaries, Beginning of General Election Calculus

• After primaries conclude, Republicans in competitive districts may attempt to distance themselves from Trump, shifting strategies for the general election.
• Favreau predicts:

  "You'll suddenly see some Republicans just finding some courage in those final months before the election and perhaps breaking with Trump."
  (Jon Favreau, 03:06)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Partisan Maps and Polarization:

  "...a race to the bottom... you don't have moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats as much, especially in the House... That's probably bad for democracy."
  (Jon Favreau, 04:37)

• On Supreme Court Decisions and Redistricting:

  "The Florida Supreme Court is very right wing and probably does not care what the Constitution actually says."
  (Jon Favreau, 07:14)

• On Democratic Optimism:

  "Democrats should feel pretty good... the special election results also are, are outpacing what the polling is showing."
  (Jon Favreau, 08:04)

• On the Unusual State of the Midterms:

  "Are we in kind of a, like, Tea Party-esque for Democrats environment... but people are mad enough, people are mad at mainstream Democrats enough, and people are mad at Republicans enough to get those people into office?"
  (Jane Coaston, 08:59)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Impact of Trump’s Endorsements in Indiana Primaries
  • [02:00] Trump’s unique popularity and primary outcomes
• Analysis of Low Turnout, High Trump Support in Primaries
  • [02:29]
• Effect of Redistricting on Electoral Landscape
  • [04:21–05:46]
• Legal Uncertainty and State-by-State Map Battles
  • [06:18–07:38]
• Democratic Turnout and Special Election Trends
  • [07:38–08:59]
• Forecast for Unusual Democratic Candidates
  • [08:59–11:06]

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Quick International & Fun News Roundup

• Iran War & Economic Sanctions

  • CIA analysis: Iran could withstand US Naval blockade for at least 3 months.
    [15:31]
  • Wall Street probe: $22.6B of suspicious oil trades before war news.
    [16:46]

• Russia’s Muted Victory Day Parade

  • For the first time since 2008, Moscow’s parade will lack military equipment—partly due to security fears over Ukrainian drone attacks.
    [17:46]

• Odd Moment: Trump Talks Fistfights with a Child

  • Trump asks an 8-year-old if he could “take him in a fight,” sparking a YouGov poll—majority of Americans think the average person could beat Trump, but most Republicans believe Trump would win.
    [18:34–18:59]

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Tone & Delivery

Jane Coaston brings clarity, wit, and a critical eye to the day’s biggest developments. The conversation with Jon Favreau blends substantive political insight with a dash of humor. Both speakers maintain a direct, conversational, and slightly irreverent tone, making the analysis both accessible and engaging to listeners.

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Conclusion

• Trump’s influence among Indiana Republicans remains strong, dictating primary outcomes and shaping the broader GOP strategy.
• Accelerated and partisan redistricting, now emboldened by Supreme Court decisions, threatens to further polarize Congress by creating "winner-take-all" states.
• Despite Republican efforts, Democrats are outperforming expectations in turnout and special elections, offering optimism ahead of the midterms but not guaranteeing victory—especially in the Senate.
• International headlines illustrate ongoing instability, and lighter segments keep the show’s trademark balance of substance and levity.

Quote of the episode:
"It's a race to the bottom... and that's probably bad for democracy."
(Jon Favreau, 04:37)

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For further insights and political updates, subscribe to What A Day and share with your friends.

Transcript

[Jane Coston]

It's Friday, May 8th. I'm Jane Coston, and this is what a day. The show wondering if the Atlantic's reporting about FBI Director Cash Patel's alleged drinking was so incorrect that the FBI director filed a lawsuit against the outlet. Then why is the FBI reportedly going after leakers and demanding Patel's security detail take polygraphs? So weird. On today's show, Russia preps for its annual Victory Day parade, and President Donald Trump tries to square up with a child in the Oval Office. Huge turn here. But let's start with the midterms and redistricting. Tennessee Republicans approved a new map on Thursday, splitting the majority black voting district that encompasses the city of Memphis and possibly eliminating the state's only blue congressional seat. They did so despite massive protests from Democrats and the people of Memphis, who gathered outside the state Capitol building in Nashville on Thursday. Hands on, Memphis. Hands on, Memphis. Hands on, Memphis. 1. Tennessee Republican State Representative Todd Warner was photographed using a Trump flag as a cape as he went to vote for the plan. In case you needed the subtext to be made, you know, text. Because this is all about giving Republicans and Donald Trump more power in Congress after last week's Supreme Court decision weakening section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. And speaking of Trump's power, the president got to flex his muscles this week in Indiana's Republican primary. Candidates with his support beat at least five Republican incumbents who had voted against his redistricting plans in the state. So what does all of this mean for the midterms? To find out, I talked to Jon Favreau. He's a co host of Pod Save America. Jon, welcome back to what a day.

[Jon Favreau]

Good to be here.

[Jane Coston]

On Tuesday, Indiana Republicans sided with Trump and voted out a handful of state senators who didn't support the president's redistricting push. Were you surprised at all?

[Jon Favreau]

No. I mean, Donald Trump's approval rating in Indiana is above water, right? One of the few states where that's true. Not as popular as he is in, like, Wyoming, but he's more popular than, like, Ohio. And some of these people, some of these candidates won with like 7,000 votes, right? 8,000 votes total.

[Jane Coston]

Because it's a primary. Like, it feels like this is going to be, like, the most MAGA of the most MAGA voting anyway.

[Jon Favreau]

It's not surprising that, like, a low turnout primary on the Republican side would feature a lot of Trump supporters, especially if he made it a big deal, which he did.

[Jane Coston]

What do you think that means for Republican candidates as we approach the elections? Because on the one hand, Trump's popularity with everybody besides Republicans is plummeting with independents, with even right leaning independent voters. On the other hand, Trump's popularity with Republicans is still comparatively strong. So what do you think that means where you have Republican candidates who want to get closer to Trump, but getting closer to Trump might make them more vulnerable?

[Jon Favreau]

Well, primary season is coming to an end. It has ended with in many states and then Republicans in all these seats that are competitive to the extent that they're wherever there are competitive seats or competitive states now, they don't have. The threat of a primary challenge is no more. The threat of losing to a Democrat is in front of them. And so I would imagine you'll suddenly see some Republicans just finding some courage in those final months before the election and perhaps breaking with Trump. But even, I mean, even in Indiana, where they had primaries on the Republican and Democratic side, and the Republican side was obviously a much bigger focus. Like, there was a bigger turnout at least in Marion county, where Indianapolis is like a higher turnout among Democrats versus the last midterm election than there was and the Republican turnout went down. So even in the state where we're talking about these candidates that Trump act won, you were still seeing Democratic turnout outpace Republican turnout in comparison with the last midterm.

[Jane Coston]

This election cycle has been particularly crazy because of Texas and California announcing plans to redistrict in the middle of the decade, which obviously typically does not happen. Thanks, Donald Trump. Now, all of these other states have followed suit, and it's basically the Wild west of redistricting. A word I cannot say.

[Jon Favreau]

It's a hard one. I just say redrawing the maps.

[Jane Coston]

Thank you. See, that's so much better. We're just going to redraw the maps. See, that's. Those are words I can say. What impact is all of this redrawing of the maps having on the integrity of our elections going into the midterms?

[Jon Favreau]

The integrity in the most technical legal sense is, is still there, but it's a race to the bottom because we have already seen a bunch of blue states redraw their maps in response to the red states redrawing their maps, which started because Donald Trump, like, demanded more seats in. And you know, it is not out of the question. But by the time you get to 2028 or 2030, you look at a map and states where there is a Democratic majority in the state legislature, they are all blue and don't have a single Republican member of Congress. And red states where there's a Republican majority in the Legislature, they are entirely red and don't have a single Democratic congressperson in Congress. And that is a very polarized country and even more polarized country than we are today. That also means that you don't have moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats as much, especially in the House, because you don't have like, a Republican sitting in a blue state like New York or a Democrat sitting in a red state like, you know, Tennessee. And that's probably bad for democracy.

[Jane Coston]

Speaking of Tennessee, Tennessee has already approved a new map that gets rid of the state's only blue seat. All of this as a result of last week's Supreme Court decision that more or less gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights act and cleared the way for states to redraw even more districts without considering minority voters. Because apparently you can do partisan redraws, but you can't do racial redraws. It just so happens that the partisan redraws are racial redraws.

[Jon Favreau]

Yeah.

[Jane Coston]

The midterms are not that far away. How likely is it that the new maps will go into effect by then?

[Jon Favreau]

Well, so in Tennessee, they had to pass the new maps, but they also had to pass a law changing the filing deadline for candidates to jump into the race because it had already passed in March.

[Jane Coston]

Right.

[Jon Favreau]

So they changed it to May 15th. So now there's like another week for suddenly candidates to jump into a race. The challenge they will face is there was a Supreme court decision in 22, in April of 22, saying that changing filing deadlines in April of, of 2022 was too close to the election then for that to work. And so obviously May is even closer to the election. So I do think there will be a legal challenge for this, but who knows? And then we'll get. I think South Carolina is trying to go, and I think Alabama's trying to go to redraw their maps. I think those are slightly less likely than Tennessee to work. And then I think Louisiana will redraw because the Supreme Court decision was about Louisiana. That will probably be the most likely to take effect. And then I bet DeSantis four seats that he gerrymandered with his new maps will probably go into effect because the Florida Supreme Court is very right wing and probably does not care what the Constitution actually says. And then we're all just going to be holding our breath to see what the Virginia State Supreme Court does, whether they uphold the results of the referendum in that state to redraw those maps so Democrats could pick up four seats

[Jane Coston]

in the middle of all of this. Democrats are Continuing to overperform in special elections across the country big time. Looking at what we've seen in these races so far, what should Democrats take from these wins as they head into the general election?

[Jon Favreau]

I think, you know, it should give Democrats optimism. It shouldn't make us too comfortable.

[Jane Coston]

When have Democrats ever been too comfortable?

[Jon Favreau]

Never or never. So that's a good, that's a good sign. Just, you know, some folks that hang out online might be, might be too optimistic. But no, I think it's. Look, you can compare to previous elections, previous midterms compared to the Republicans versus like, no matter what comparisons, what stats you use, Democrats are much more enthusiastic. They are more likely to show up in these midterms, and Republicans are less likely to show up in these midterms. And the special election results also are, are outpacing what the polling is showing. The generic ballot in the polling is closer than most of the special election results have been. So I think that's a very good sign. Obviously, the midterm electorate is probably slightly friendlier to Republicans than a special election electorate, but certainly not as friendly to Republicans as a presidential electorate is. And if it's not as friendly, plus we're already seeing results that outpace previous years and some of these specials and off years, then I think Democrats should feel pretty good.

[Jane Coston]

I think something I've been thinking about is, is the environment for these midterms friendly enough to get some Democrats who I think Republicans would typically think there's no way they'd win? You know, your grand platners, who they're already talking about like, oh, we're, we're so excited to go against him. Are we in kind of a, like, Tea Party esque for Democrats environment in which you could see Democrats who, if we would have tried this 10 years ago, they wouldn't have gotten into office. But people are mad enough, people are mad at mainstream Democrats enough, and people are mad at Republicans enough to get those people into office?

[Jon Favreau]

I think it really depends. I think what we're talking about here is does the environment end up being bluer than 2018? And I think right now, if you believe the polls, then it's like getting close to 2018, but not quite there yet. If you look at the special election results, the off year election results, that looks like a bluer environment than 2018. I think you're not gonna get quite Tea party in 2010, only because that was less about the environment and more about the maps being different that we just talked about. And so there was just a lot more Republicans sitting in districts that were unfavorable to them. We're talking about like, you know, Democrats, I think are odds on favorites. Take the House. But in the Senate, you're talking about if Democrats win, they have to win states where Trump won by 8, 9, 10 points. Double digits probably, and that's a taller order. But as we are seeing, not impossible. Like, I actually think Platner is not even the least likely by any means, just because of the partisan makeup of Maine. I think you're going to get down to Can Sherrod Brown pull it out in Ohio? Whether it's Josh Turek or Zach Walls in Iowa, do they pull it out? Does Mary Peltola pull it out in Alaska? Does James Tallarigo pull it out in Texas? Like those are the four states. I think that if we need two out of the four of those states, that means that those Democratic candidate will have won by probably outpaced Trump by like, you know, 10 points.

[Jane Coston]

John, as always, thank you so much for joining me.

[Jon Favreau]

Thanks for having me. Fun to nerd out every time.

[Jane Coston]

That was my conversation with Jon Favreau, co host of Pod Save America. Your vote counts here, so use it by commenting and leaving a review on our show on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Please make sure to subscribe, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads what a day is brought to you by Zebiotics Pre Alcohol let's face it, after a night with drinks, I don't bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is, until I found pre Alcohol. Zebiotic's Pre Alcohol Probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this by product down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Every time I have pre alcohol before drinks, I notice a difference the next day. Even after a night out, I can confidently plan on working out without worry. From the crack of the bat at the stadium to the start of wedding season and the roar of the engines in Indy, May is packed with back to back. Reasons to be out don't let a rough morning after keep you on the sidelines. Drink pre alcohol to stay ahead of it and make the most of every Saturday this month. Go to ZBiotics.com wad to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use wad at checkout. ZBiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com wad and use the code WAD at checkout for 15% off. Water Day is brought to you by Bilt. Whether you're renting or paying a mortgage, one of your biggest monthly expenses should be working harder for you. That's where BILT comes in. BILT is the membership for where you live that rewards you with points on every housing payment. BILT started out rewarding members on the rent. Now, as of 2026, BILT members can also earn points on mortgage payments wherever they live. Every housing payment earns you points you can use towards flights with top travel partners like United and Hyatt, Lyft rides, Amazon.com purchases and so much more. Personally, I'd redeem my points for a rent credit or towards the fitness classes I love, but here's what I think is the most underrated BILT members also get access to a neighborhood concierge. It can make restaurant reservations, book fitness classes and find new local spots, all while being rewarded at more than 45,000 merchant partners. It's like having a personal assistant baked into where you live. It's simple. Being a renter and now owning a home is better with Bilt. Join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com wad that's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T.com wade make sure to use our URL so they know we sent you.

[Jon Favreau]

Hey Crooked listeners, if you haven't become a friend of the POD yet, you are missing out on exclusive bonus content that drops every single week. If you do join, you're helping us, you know, grow Crooked Media, which is one of the few independent, proudly pro democracy media companies left in Trump's America. If you join, you also get Add free episodes of all your favorite pods. Add free episodes of POD Save America. Love it or leave it offline. Pod Save the World. You also get bonus content like our new extra episode of POD Save America called Pod Save America. Only Friends Dan Pfeiffer's Polar Coaster. You also get access to all of our excellent substack newsletters like Pod, Save America, Open Tabs and tons more great content. So stop what you're doing right now and go ahead and [e-mail] check it out.

[Jane Coston]

You know what they say.

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[Jane Coston]

Here's what else we're following today. Head of Lines we know it's hard to keep up with every update on the Iran war, from the ceasefire to rising gas prices. There's a lot going on. But two new reports came out this week, one from the Washington Post and one from ABC News with some interesting information. According to people that spoke with the Post, a confidential CIA analysis found that Iran can survive the US Naval blockade for at least three months before facing, quote, more severe economic hardship. Maybe Iran can survive another three months, but I'm not sure the American people are going to be into a four to five week war that lasts into August. And would it be a war without a little corruption? Here's Good Morning America describing an ABC News report.

[Vrbo Representative]

We have learned that the Justice Department is investigating a series of suspiciously timed trades just ahead of major announcements about the war by President Trump. Sources tell ABC News that the doj, along with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are probing at least four trades in the oil market, where traders made a total of more than $22.6 billion, betting that oil prices would drop right before they actually did.

[Jane Coston]

Wall street traders attempting to make money off the war. What are the chances? Saturday marks Russia's annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, a celebration honoring the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War, a victory that cost the USSR roughly 24 million lives. It's typically a massive display of military might and power, but this year things are going to look a little different. For one thing, the parade will not feature any military equipment for the first time since 2008. No tanks, no missiles. Airports in Moscow were shut down on Tuesday, and the government cut off mobile Internet access for many in the city. Why? Here's Sky News on Thursday.

[Chris Hayes]

There's been an increase in Ukrainian drone attacks across Russia recently lots of energy infrastructure has been hit and even a Moscow high rise was hit truck just a few miles from the Kremlin at the start of this week. And that's got the authorities here rattled. They are worried their big day could be disrupted.

[Jane Coston]

See Remember Russia's war in Ukraine? The war, pro Russia pundit said would last for just a few days. The conflict has not lasted for more than four years, longer than the Soviet Union's battle against Nazi Germany. And Ukraine's ability to produce and launch long range drones that can strike at the very heart of Russian territory has made everyone super anxious. So now Russia's big victory parade is going to be. Let's bake. Sad. Speaking of storied conflicts with lasting legacies, America is now debating a question we've all wondered. Could Donald Trump win a fist fight with a child? No, I am not kidding. It all started on Tuesday when Trump asked a child a very normal question in the Oval Office during an event celebrating the return of the presidential fitness test.

[Jon Favreau]

Are you a strong person?

[Jane Coston]

Yes, sir. Good. You think you can take me in a fight? That would be embarrassing. Wouldn't would be. So the Good people at YouGov decided to poll more than 2,000Americans and ask whether they thought an 8 year old boy an average American or they themselves could beat Donald Trump in a physical altercation. 66% of Americans said that an average American could beat Trump. Democrats were, as you guess, more likely to say that they could beat Trump. Republicans who were polled said that Trump would probably beat them. I need to be very clear about this. Donald Trump will turn 80 next month and appears to consume mostly fast food and Diet Coke. And a majority of Republicans polled by YouGov think he would best them in a physical altercation. Sometimes I really worry about people, and that's the news. Before we go. In the latest episode of Runaway Country, Alex Wagner and Strict Scrutiny's Kate Shaw discuss the outrageous indictment of James Comey and why it matters when the DOJ is weaponized against perceived political enemies. Tune in to Runaway country wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, celebrate, because Trump's sheriff's lost in court again. And tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, I'm not. Just about how the US Court of International Trade ruled on Thursday that the Trump administration cannot impose 10% global tariffs. Like me, Water Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Cricket Dot com. Subscribe I'm Jane Costen and somehow I don't think this is going to stop Trump from trying to impose global tariffs at all. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. Our show is produced by Caitlin Plummer, Emily Foer, Erica Morrison, and Adrienne Hill. Our team includes Haley Jones, Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Joseph Dutra, Johanna Case, and Desmond Taylor. Our music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Kantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

[Chris Hayes]

Artificial intelligence is moving very, very fast and it's raising new questions just about every day about what it is, what it isn't. When all is said and done, what is the end game? I'm Chris Hayes and as part of my podcast why Is this Happening? I'm speaking with leading experts each week to help ground that conversation.

[Jane Coston]

We're right now in a situation where it's very difficult to understand what is real and what's not real.

[Chris Hayes]

Why is this happening? The AI Endgame, a special miniseries from Ms. Now start listening today wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Jon Favreau]

Hey crooked listeners, if you haven't become a friend of the POD yet, you are missing out on exclusive bonus content that drops every single week. If you do join, you're helping us, you know, grow Crooked Media, which is one of the few independent, proudly pro democracy media companies left in Trump's America. If you join, you also get ad free episodes of all your favorite pods. Ad free episodes of Pod Save America. Love it or leave it offline. Pod Save the World. You also get bonus content like our new extra episode of Pod Save America called Pod Save America Only Friends, Dan Pfeiffer's Polar Coaster. You also get access to all of our excellent substack newsletters like Pod Save America, Open tabs and tons more great content. So stop what you're doing right now and go ahead and [e-mail] friends check it out.

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