Podcast Summary: "Trump's Trolling Weakens Polling"
What A Day (Crooked Media) • Host: Jane Coston • Guest: Dan Pfeiffer
Air date: August 26, 2025
Main Theme/Purpose
This episode dives into the troubled landscape of American political polling under President Donald Trump’s second administration. Host Jane Coston breaks down how Trump's polarizing approach, especially on economic and immigration issues, is reflected in current polling data and dissects the broader significance (and limitations) of polls in politics. Jane is joined by Crooked Media’s polling expert Dan Pfeiffer, who brings sharp insights into what polling does and doesn’t tell us, how Democrats misinterpret the data, and why political language wars may be a distraction from the real work.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump’s Unpopularity and Tough Poll Numbers
[00:23 – 02:23]
- Trump holds an abysmally low approval rating (~37% per Gallup)—comparable only to his own numbers at the same stage in his first term.
- He’s losing ground with Gen Z, Latino voters, and even groups that backed him in November 2024.
- Democrats, too, are broadly unpopular, with 63% of voters holding a negative view of the party (Wall Street Journal).
Jane quips: “Congrats on everyone hating you twice.” [00:27]
2. Polling as Political Compass & its Limits
[02:23 – 05:40]
- Trump’s approval is stagnant: 42-43% approval, low 50s disapproval.
- Inflation is Trump’s biggest political weakness; tariffs have made consumer costs worse, despite his campaign promises.
"It's truly an insane move to run on a promise to lower costs and then make the centerpiece of your economic plan something that raises costs and makes inflation worse." – Dan Pfeiffer [03:15]
- Public awareness of “tariffs” tops word clouds about Trump.
- Trump’s “strongest” issue is crime, but it’s inconsistently polled. On immigration, his popularity depends on the frame: “border security” scores positive, “immigration” negative, “deportations” even more so.
3. Are Polls Useful for Governing?
[04:07 – 05:56]
- Polls are snapshots—not blueprints for governance or prediction.
- Public opinion on issues like immigration is “thermostatic”—people’s views can quickly reverse depending on events and policy framing.
- Notably, spikes in Trump’s negative ratings on immigration track with highly publicized raids and deportations.
“When people pay more attention to what Trump’s actually doing, his numbers go down.” – Dan Pfeiffer [05:28]
4. The Accuracy and Manipulation of Polls under Trump
[05:56 – 08:24]
- Early Trump election polling (2016, 2020) suffered from underrepresenting less-engaged voters—who skew Trumpian.
- By 2024, pollsters compensated with “statistical tricks” (weighting for 2020 Trump voters), improving accuracy but raising doubts about applicability for non-Trump GOP candidates.
“It really is a statistical trick... You’re not getting enough Trump actual voters... you’re just statistically weighting to account for the fact that you’re not.” – Dan Pfeiffer [07:17]
5. Democrat Pitfalls: Misreading the Polls
[08:24 – 09:20]
- Democrats too often use polls to “meet voters where they are” rather than making their case and moving opinion.
“We too often use the polls as a way to tell us what to say... instead, we should use a map to figure out where we need to go.” – Dan Pfeiffer [09:05]
6. The "Magic Words" Fallacy in Messaging
[09:23 – 12:50]
- Jane and Dan discuss the recurring belief that Democrats just need “better words”—often after losses, the party obsesses over terminology rather than fix campaign structure or policy.
- The right’s media apparatus amplifies any “extreme” progressive language, regardless of whether prominent Democrats use it.
“We're just getting massively outworked in the messaging space. Mainstream Democrats are not using these words. They just aren't.” – Dan Pfeiffer [11:15]
- Focusing on language is an “easy fix” that distracts from the “hard work” of overhauling structures, communication, and connecting with voters.
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
- Jane Coston [00:23]: “Congrats on everyone hating you twice.”
- Dan Pfeiffer [03:15]: “It’s truly an insane move to run on a promise to lower costs and then make the centerpiece of your economic plan something that raises costs and makes inflation worse, which is what he’s done with these tariffs.”
- Jane Coston [04:07]: “Voters who are nice, normal people… change their minds all the time, very quickly.”
- Dan Pfeiffer [07:17]: “It really is a statistical trick... You’re not getting enough Trump actual voters... you’re just statistically weighting to account for the fact that you’re not.”
- Dan Pfeiffer [09:05]: “We too often use the polls as a way to tell us what to say... instead, we should use a map to figure out where we need to go.”
- Jane Coston [11:03]: “Fox News will be like, ‘They said intersectionality! Why doesn’t Elizabeth Warren have to answer for that?’”
- Dan Pfeiffer [11:15]: “We're just getting massively outworked in the messaging space.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:23 – Setting the context: Trump & Democrats unpopular in polls
- 02:23 – Trump’s current polling numbers, weaknesses, and issue breakdowns
- 04:07 – Jane’s question: Are polls still useful? Limitations of polling
- 05:56 – The “silent Trump voter” myth & statistical adjustments in polling
- 08:24 – Should Democrats be poll-dependent?
- 09:23 – Polls, language, and the “magic words” fallacy
- 12:53 – Jane thanks Dan Pfeiffer (end of main interview)
Brief Rundown of Other Major Stories (Post-interview)
(For completeness, major news coverage, not in-depth analysis)
- [15:27] South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s friendly White House visit; Trump brags about his relationship with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
- [17:31] Kilmar Abrego Garcia, wrongly deported, addresses supporters; remains in legal limbo after rejecting a DOJ plea deal.
- [18:45] Trump responds to Israeli airstrike on Gaza’s Nasser hospital; global condemnation over civilian and journalist deaths.
- [19:43] Trump signs executive order pushing for prosecution of flag desecrators, despite Supreme Court protections.
- [20:19] Trump’s rationale: flag burning incites riots; executive order tasks AG Pam Bondi to find prosecutable offenses.
Final Thoughts & Takeaways
- Polls remain a critical but imperfect tool—reflecting voter mood but not always predicting or instructing political action.
- Democrats risk over-indexing on polling data and surface language, missing the harder work of driving narrative and structural change.
- The right’s ability to caricature Democrats via media outpaces Democratic efforts at counter-messaging.
- Even as political parties wrestle with strategy, high-profile events—on tariffs, immigration, foreign policy—continue to shape voter perception, proving that actions and media narrative can quickly shift the political mood, regardless of the “snapshot” a poll offers.
This summary captures the opening interview and substantive news segments, omitting ads and non-content sections as instructed.