What Does Trump Need Most From China?

Summary

What a Day: “What Does Trump Need Most From China?”
Date: May 13, 2026
Host: Jane Coaston
Guest: Philem Kine, DC-based China correspondent at Politico

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on President Donald Trump’s high-stakes trip to China, his first in nearly a decade, as he seeks to manage escalating challenges at home and abroad. Host Jane Coaston and guest Philem Kine break down the shifting U.S.-China power dynamics, Trump's urgent agenda in Beijing, and what both sides hope—and realistically expect—to get from this “incredibly shrinking summit.” Along the way, they probe the tangible consequences of the Iran war, sustained inflation, and crumbling American global leverage.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

How U.S.-China Relations Have Changed Since Trump’s First Term

• Peak Hostility to Pragmatic Engagement:
  In Trump’s first term, U.S. policy toward China was openly hawkish, culminating in aggressive trade wars and public antagonism. Now, mutual animosity has cooled out of necessity, giving way to reluctant attempts at stability.
• The Summit’s Diminishing Ambitions:
  Once billed as a showdown over huge issues, the summit now revolves around more modest, transactional goals: securing help on Iran, tackling fentanyl, and boosting U.S. exports to improve Trump’s domestic standing.

“I call this summit...the incredible shrinking summit because it’s not about big things...It’s now just about, ‘Hey, I need you to help me with Iran...can you do something about the fentanyl flows...I need you to buy a bunch of my stuff because things aren’t looking so great back home.’”
— Philem Kine, [02:10]

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Power Dynamics: Who Holds the Cards?

• China’s Ascendancy:
  China now commands the world’s largest navy, an expanding military-industrial base, and increasingly seeks to position itself as the rational, multilateral alternative to America’s unpredictable posturing.
• America’s Waning Influence:
  Recent U.S. foreign adventures have isolated allies and emboldened China to forge new, lucrative partnerships, especially with countries and regions disaffected by U.S. policies.

“China is an economic juggernaut...It is the world’s second largest economy, and to a large extent, it’s outpacing the US in...key indicators—not least its ability to broker relations with parts of the world increasingly disenchanted with the United States.”
— Philem Kine, [03:40]

• What Each Side Wants:
  Both parties seek a low bar for “success”: short-term stability, avoidance of new restrictions or tariffs, and breathing space to manage their own domestic vulnerabilities. For Trump, it’s about the midterms; for Xi Jinping, about unemployment and internal legitimacy.

“They just want to be able to take their respective tensions, put them on the back burner...It’s a low bar, but basically the status quo right now works for both of them with a few sweeteners in terms of trade and maybe diplomatic incentives.”
— Philem Kine, [05:25]

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The Iran War and Global Economics

• Iran as Flashpoint:
  Trump seeks China’s leverage over Iran to help stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, which has crippled global energy flows, jacked up gas prices, and harmed Trump domestically. China, however, is comfortably weathering the crisis thanks to strategic petroleum reserves and investments in renewables.

“Beijing has leverage...the big question is will they apply it...Beijing is actually pretty happy to just let Trump and the US stew...because they’re pretty well situated...”
— Philem Kine, [07:00]

• Shifted Leverage & Implications:
  America is now the party seeking favors, a profound shift with broad implications for future diplomacy. China’s confidence and willingness to endure short-term pain have fundamentally altered the dynamic.

“We’re really in an inflection point...the US is really coming to terms with the fact that this is a China that’s not just rising, this is a China that has risen...a China that really believes the US has peaked.”
— Philem Kine, [08:23]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Economically powerful, militarily powerful, talks the talk about being in favor of multilateral, peaceful win-wins—and it’s juxtaposed itself against the United States, which is basically the opposite of everything I just said.”
  — Philem Kine, [04:28]
• “Cap in hand, asking for help from Beijing...the Iran war and the fallout, specifically the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, has really become a running sore on the face of the Trump administration.”
  — Philem Kine, [06:59]
• “A country that showed that it’s willing to go toe-to-toe in a bitter and disruptive trade war...willing to accept...domestic fallout...Something that an authoritarian one-party state can do that a democratic state like the United States can’t.”
  — Philem Kine, [08:52]

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Segment Timestamps

00:00 – 03:16
Opening, context for Trump’s trip, and initial comparison to 2017 visit.

03:16 – 06:44
China’s growing leverage, summit goals, and the status quo advantage for both sides.

06:44 – 08:15
The impact of the Iran war on summit dynamics and the roles each nation plays.

08:15 – 09:32
Reflection on the new U.S.-China relationship and future implications.

12:51 – 19:10
Headlines and news: U.S. domestic politics, economic inflation, cabinet resignations, and cultural commentary.

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Tone & Style

Jane Coaston maintains her signature combination of sharp wit and incisive analysis, while Philem Kine delivers crisp, unvarnished insight on the realpolitik shaping the U.S.-China relationship. The episode skips grandstanding and focuses on the actual constraints and options for global leaders.

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Summary for New Listeners

In just 20 minutes, this episode delivers a grounded, accessible roadmap to understanding why Trump’s China trip is less about big showdowns and more about scrambling for stability—highlighting the deeper shift in world order as China steps confidently onto the world stage and the U.S. finds itself in unfamiliar, vulnerable territory. Whether you’re interested in geopolitics, economic realities, or just why Rush Hour 4 is suddenly a front-page issue, Coaston and Kine offer essential context for today’s headlines.

Transcript

[Jane Costen]

foreign

[Philem Kine]

it's wednesday may thirteenth i'm jane costen and this is what a day a show congratulating metoo cancel director brett ratner on his upcoming trip to china alongside president donald trump and a bunch of ceo's the director of the rush hour franchise and the melania documentary i know you didn't watch will be scouting locations for rush hour four a movie that is only happening because trump wants to see it no i am not kidding on today's show secretary of defense little boy pete hegseth returns to the hill with an inflated ego and speaking of inflation consumer prices are continuing to rise you probably already knew that but let's start with china president trump will arrive in beijing today for the long awaited u s china summit it's trump's first trip to china in nearly a decade and one where both sides see big opportunities mostly to make money it's also a trip in which the global balance of power has shifted arguably in china's favor back in twenty seventeen when trump visited beijing he was a china hawk who said that china would quote lie cheat and steal in all international dealings now he's heading into china with declining poll numbers in the midst of an unpopular war with no clear exit plan he's looking to make deals not problems meanwhile china has become an economic and military powerhouse more than able to stand up to the us and trump's trade wars and the whole world has noticed so what leverage does trump have going into these talks in beijing and what does it mean for the future of the us china relationship to find out i spoke to filem kine he's a dc based china correspondent at politico philem welcome to what a day thanks for having me president trump and chinese president xi are meeting in beijing this week for the first time since twenty seventeen and i'm curious seems like a big question but how are the us and china different today than they were in trump's first term i mean different

[Jane Costen]

today in the sense that the first trump administration was overtly hawkish and hostile to china it was really the peak of china hawkness in dc and what we've seen if this administration was this trade war that trump launched in twenty twenty five both china and the us spent much of last year punching each other in the face with tariffs and export restrictions and they've kind of come to this point where they're just trying to get along and they're just trying to be stable so you know i call this summit that's going to be happening in the next day or two the incredible shrinking summit because it's not about big things it's not about wrestling china to the floor with the big issues that the administration was talking about even a few months ago like ending china's subsidies to its industries or retooling its economy to a more like consumer focus instead of an export focus it's now just about hey i need you to help me with iran number one hey number two can you do something about the fentanyl flows and number three i need you to buy a bunch of my stuff because things aren't looking so great back home in terms of domestic polling ahead of midterms in november so that's kind of how it comes down to in terms of the administration's

[Philem Kine]

approach to this meeting there's been a lot of reporting that china feels like the us is weaker than it was a decade ago but i think that you know i'm an american who reports on american news i don't know what's going on on the ground in china domestically who is coming into this with the cards compared to last time and how will that dynamic play out so

[Jane Costen]

first thing is in terms of who's stronger who's weaker look china is an economic juggernaut and it has translated and funneled that industrial might into you know one of the world's most fastest growing military industrial complexes right so we have this massive expansion in its military has the biggest navy in the world it is building its strategic nuclear forces at a pace unseen and at the same time you know it is the workshop of the world it is the world's second largest economy and to a large extent it's outpacing the us in terms of like key indicators not least its ability to broker relations trade or otherwise with parts of the world that are increasingly disenchanted with the united states as a result of the trump administration's first foreign policy over the past year canada as the fifty first state let's invade greenland let's take out maduro in this operation venezuela iran so all of these things sort of play to china's strengths in the sense that economically powerful militarily powerful talks the talk about being in favor of multilateral peaceful win wins and it's juxtapose itself against the united states which is kind of like basically the opposite of everything i just said so

[Philem Kine]

the talks are expected to cover a lot you said it was kind of this incredible shrinking summit but they're still going to be talking about trade ai taiwan sovereignty and the iran war china has been one of iran's biggest partners it's not getting the oil it typically gets from iran obviously because of the strait of hormuz being closed but what do you think each party wants out

[Jane Costen]

of this meeting what each party wants most out of this meeting is a very low bar for success and that is maintaining the stability that the two leaders were able to broker in their last meeting in busan south korea so that means number one keeping tariffs stable so that there can be stable ongoing trade between the two countries holding back on export restrictions you'll remember that that beijing basically almost brought the us to the mat by these restrictions on these rare earth critical minerals the us doesn't want that to happen again both sides have domestic issues that they want to deal with trump is dealing with a souring domestic political environment ahead of midterms xi jinping is dealing with rising unemployment he's dealing with issues in terms of securing his own future as this strongman authoritarian leader so they just want to be able to take their respective tensions put them on the back burner so for the next eighteen months or so that's what they want to do it's a low bar but basically the status quo right now works for both of them with a few sweeteners in terms of trade and maybe diplomatic incentives this

[Philem Kine]

summit was supposed to take place at the beginning of april and it was pushed back because of the war in iran which which is obviously still going on how does being at war with iran affect any potential deals trump could make with china right now well trump

[Jane Costen]

is going to china kind of like cap in hand asking for help from beijing to pressure its partner ally tehran to accept some kind of deal that will reopen the strait of hormuz you know the iran war and the fallout specifically the paralysis of of the strait of hormuz has really become a running sore on the face of the trump administration it's jacked up gasoline prices it has alienated partners it is freezing and suspending desperately needed liquefied natural gas and oil cargoes to throughout southeast asia and throughout asia so this is a real problem he needs to have addressed and beijing has leverage to do that the big question is will they apply it and i thinking that beijing is actually pretty happy to just let trump and the us stew in its own juices in terms of iran and the strait of hormuz because they're pretty well situated with their strategic petroleum reserves their massive uptake of renewable energy to see through this current period of disruption that's been created by hormuz paralysis how will this

[Philem Kine]

new power dynamic where the us needs china more than china needs the us affect future relations between the countries well

[Jane Costen]

i think first off is that the united states needs to get used to that that there needs to be a sense that this is no longer the junior partner in a relationship in which the us as the president likes to say holds all the cards this is a country that showed that that it's willing to go toe to toe in a really bitter and disruptive trade war with the us and is willing to accept and bear the types of sort of domestic fallout from those types of engagements something that an authoritarian one party state can do that a democratic state like the united states can't so i think that we're really in an inflection point in this relationship in which the us is really coming to terms with the fact that this is a china that's not just rising this is a china that has risen that has agency that has confidence and most importantly a china that really believes that the us has peaked that this is the eclipse of the american century and that this century is much more china's and the us is in decline that's a huge

[Philem Kine]

part of this dynamic thank you so much for joining me my pleasure that was my conversation with philom kine dc based china correspondent at politico we will not be heading overseas in fact we'll be right here if you're enjoying the show make sure to subscribe leave a five star review on spotify and apple podcasts watch us on youtube and share with your friends more to come after some ads this podcast is brought to you by wise the app for international people using money around the globe when it comes to sending money abroad many providers claim to offer free fees and competitive rates but don't be fooled this can be code for inflated exchange rates with the wise account you can send spend and receive money in over forty currencies without ever having to worry about hidden fees sending pounds across the pond most transfers arrive in twenty seconds or less spending reals in rio the wise travel card gives you the mid market rate on every purchase no costly markups on your bill getting paid in dollars for your side gig avoid hidden fees and get the real exchange rate every time with twenty four seven access to live support your international transactions with wise are quick transparent and safe plus wise runs over seven million daily checks to catch and prevent fraud fifteen million people already trust wise to manage their money internationally be smart get wise my husband and i have used wyze when we've traveled all over the country and it's been a total game changer download the wyze app today or visit wise dot com terms and conditions apply whataday is brought to you by mill we've been using the mill food recycler in our office kitchen for a few months and the results speak for themselves i'm astounded by just how much food waste it can turn into free fertilizer with no smell and no mess mill is the odorless effortless fully automated food recycler potato peels avocado pits chicken bones even dairy milk takes almost anything while you sleep mill quietly transforms your food scraps into nutrient rich shelf stable grounds no mess no smells no fruit flies mill can process up to ten pounds overnight and it can work for weeks before you even have to think about emptying it you can use the grounds in your garden add them to curbside compost or mill can even pick them up and get them to a small farm for you mill makes an office lunch easier to clean up after just put chicken bones and banana peels into the mill job done try mil risk free for ninety days and get seventy five dollars off at mil dot com wad and use code wad that's seventy five dollars off at mill dot com wad and use the code wad

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[Philem Kine]

we're following today head of lines

[Jane Costen]

my concern mister secretary is that you've achieved a series of tactical successes but are on the verge of a strategic loss because we are now negotiating just to get so foolish here we are in a committee in the united states senate seventy four days in and you're talking about strategic loss we have the ability forty seven year threat of a pursuit of a nuclear weapon we have more

[Philem Kine]

leverage than we've ever had defense secretary p hegseth was back on capitol hill tuesday where he faced tough questions from both house and senate lawmakers that exchange was between the secretary and delaware democratic senator chris coons hegseth received pushback from members of his own party about the levels of us munitions used in the war and president trump's intense criticism criticism of traditional allies for not taking part in the conflict imagine not being able to please anyone us consumer prices climbed sharply again last month as the ten week war with iran delivered higher gasoline prices and more pain for americans national economic council director kevin hassett spoke to fox business's larry kudlow on tuesday about the labor department's latest report certainly on

[Kevin Hassett]

the surface you gotta admit today's cpi was a lousy number six ten of a percent core ex food and energy still up four ten of a percent so the twelve month change is three point eight percent and the core change is two point eight percent what is an nec director say on a day like today when when the cpi is coming out so poorly well well first

[Jane Costen]

of all the c this is a

[Kevin Hassett]

temporary energy shock and that's very clearly

[Philem Kine]

in the data that's enough out of you kevin the labor department's consumer price index rose nearly four percent since last april that's the biggest jump in three years and let's talk about the cost of food grocery prices went up zero point seven percent from march to april according to nbc news that's the biggest one month jump in grocery costs in almost four years the department of justice is sending subpoenas to journalists at publications including the wall street journal axios and the washington post to get their records the wall street journal reported that the move was directed by trump who allegedly gave acting attorney general todd blanche a stack of news articles he objected to with a sticky note on top that read quote treason blanche posted on twitter tuesday that prosecuting leakers was a top priority adding quote any witness whether a reporter or otherwise who has information about these criminals should not be surprised if they receive a subpoena about the illegal leaking of classified material sure criminals the head of the food and drug administration has resigned doctor marty makary's departure comes after a rocky tenure that drew months of complaints from health industry executives anti abortion activists vaping lobbyists and other allies of president trump weirdest possible party invite list but trump doesn't seem too worried about losing another administration official marty's a

[Kevin Hassett]

terrific guy but he's going to go on and he's going to lead a

[Philem Kine]

good life to be clear marty makary is not being sent to a farm upstate mccary was in the role for just thirteen months an acting commissioner was named on tuesday hours after the announcement should you invade iran or order a diet cook with the press of a button a new video game that popped up on the national mall claims trump faced this question weeks ago operation epic furious straight to hell pokes fun at the war in iran and just about everyone in trump world it was made by an anonymous activist group known as the secret handshake which is known for pop up installations in dc trolling trump the game begins with trump deciding to bomb iran he flies across the fake news atlantic and past greenland renamed trumplandia and at some point pope leo battles trump with the powerful weapon of catholic guilt read more about the video game which you can play online in the what a day newsletter the link is in our show notes and that's the news before we go if you haven't listened to crooked's critically acclaimed podcast from other country radicals now's your chance the podcast is returning with a bonus episode and a new book host zaid ayers dorn was born to parents involved in one of america's most notorious radical underground movements of the nineteen seventies his mother was on the fbi's ten most wanted list his book dangerous dirty violent and young is part memoir part political reckoning catch the bonus episode now on the mother country radicals feed that's all for today if you like the show make sure you subscribe leave a review contemplate how weird it is our president posts bullshit on truth social at like one thirty am and tell your friends to listen and if you're into reading and not just about how for example the president posted more than fifty times on monday night and early tuesday morning and most most of his posts were weird ai images of obama or graphics saying the stock market is doing great like me what a day is also my nightly newsletter check it out and subscribe at cricut dot com subscribe i'm jane costen and let's be real if your seventy nine year old grandpa were posting more than fifty times a night and falling asleep during the day you would be worried what a day is a production of crooked media our show is produced by caitlin plummer emily foer erica morrison and adrienne hill our team includes haley jones greg walters matt berg joseph dutra johanna case and desmond taylor our music is by kyle murdoch and jordan kanter we had help today from the associated press our production staff is proudly unionized with the writers guild of america east simone sanders townsend and i have

[Kevin Hassett]

known each other for more than a

[Philem Kine]

decade tussling over politics and policy when she worked in the white house and i reported on it and now we're friends and colleagues and on our podcast clock it we are positioning ourselves at the intersection of culture and politics clock it is where we talk about what we see and hear in the news so you can start to clock it too clock it with simone and eugene

[Jane Costen]

listen now new episodes drop thursdays

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