Podcast Summary: "What Happens When Rebels Take Over Your Country?"

Episode Title: What Happens When Rebels Take Over Your Country?
Host/Author: Crooked Media
Release Date: December 14, 2024
Host: Jane Coaston
Duration: Approx. 32 minutes

Introduction: The Fall of Assad and the Rise of Syrian Rebels

The episode opens with Max Fisher detailing a pivotal moment in Syrian history: the overthrow of longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad by Syrian rebels. After 13 years of devastating civil war resulting in over 600,000 deaths and millions displaced, the rebels' takeover of the capital marks a significant turning point.

At 00:00, Fisher describes the aftermath of Assad's ouster:

"It's been a week since Syrian rebels overtook the country's capital and forced out the longtime dictator Bashar al Assad. This has been a long time coming."

A poignant moment is highlighted at 01:03, where a CNN crew discovers a prisoner hiding in one of Syria's notorious secret prisons:

Erin Ryan: "The light says, oh, God, there is life."

This scene encapsulates the fragile hope and uncertainty gripping Syria as the nation stands on the brink of a new political era.

Historical Context: Rebel Takeovers Around the World

Max Fisher contextualizes Syria's situation by comparing it to historical instances where rebels have seized control, such as the Communist takeover in China (1949) and the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan (2021). These comparisons aim to shed light on the possible trajectories Syria might follow under rebel governance.

At 03:40, Brian Domini, a sovereign risk analyst, discusses Rwanda's economic success post-rebellion:

"The country prides itself as, you know, the Singapore of Africa. And that is primarily premised on the fact that it's relatively open to foreign investors."

This example serves to illustrate that some rebel-led governments can achieve economic stability and growth, challenging the notion that military groups inherently fail at governance.

The Role of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in Syria

The centerpiece of the episode is the exploration of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that has assumed control over Syria's capital. Sam Heller, a Syria expert from the Century Foundation, provides in-depth analysis of HTS's governance strategies.

At 04:55, Heller explains:

"Part of what has sustained this experiment in governance is they control. I mean, you know, until recently, about 3 million people, I think about half of them were displaced from elsewhere in the country. So HTS, they've done smart work, kind of imposing a number of taxes, fees in ways that, you know, make their governing project more sustainable and I think also likely feed into their military capability."

HTS's ability to maintain control and provide essential services has been crucial in garnering support from the population, despite the oppressive methods often employed.

Governance and Bureaucratic Efficiency

HTS's approach to governance is dissected, revealing a blend of military discipline and bureaucratic administration. Sam Heller discusses how HTS has managed to establish a semblance of order and efficiency within their controlled territories.

At 06:03, Heller notes:

"In Idlib, they managed to rationalize checkpoints so you could kind of enter at the start of HTS controlled territory... without incurring new predatory tolls."

This restructuring contrasts with chaotic governance seen in other rebel-controlled regions, such as North Aleppo, highlighting HTS's strategic management of resources and infrastructure.

Authoritarian Tendencies and Suppression of Dissent

Despite their administrative capabilities, HTS exhibits classic authoritarian traits common among rebel-turned-governing bodies. The episode delves into the inherent challenges and oppressive measures that often accompany such transitions.

At 07:56, Ahmed Al Shara (Abu Mohammed Al Jelani), HTS's leader, emphasizes institutional governance:

"The most important thing is to build institutions. We are not talking about rule by individuals or personal whims."

However, historical parallels suggest that such institutions may evolve into single-party autocracies. Max Fisher references a 2017 BBC clip illustrating the Taliban's restrictive governance:

Brian Domini: "The Taliban used to be free of restrictions, but now we sit in one place behind a desk."

These examples underscore the precarious balance HTS must maintain between appearing legitimate and suppressing potential opposition.

Comparisons with China, Cuba, and Afghanistan

The episode draws comparisons between HTS's governance and past rebel-led governments like Mao's China and Castro's Cuba, illustrating a pattern of initial promises of freedom leading to authoritarian rule.

Max Fisher recounts Mao Zedong's "100 Flowers Campaign," where initial openness to criticism swiftly turned into mass purges:

"They purged about 300,000 people, stripping them of their jobs and sending many of them to death sentences at forced labor camps."

Similarly, Castro's early days in Cuba showcased grand promises that deteriorated into systematic repression:

"In Havana Sports palace, the Castro regime's controversial showcase trials get underway... the decision, his death."

These historical insights serve as cautionary tales for Syria, indicating potential futures under HTS's rule.

Legitimacy and International Relations

A significant challenge for HTS is gaining international legitimacy amid widespread designation as a terrorist organization. Max Fisher discusses the necessity for rebel governments to secure foreign aid and investment to sustain their economies.

At 16:57, Sam Heller reflects on HTS's attempts to project moderation:

"They seem smart and pragmatic. It's hard to know if like what is there at base if the their real kind of bedrock ideology."

Despite efforts, accessing global trade remains arduous, as seen in the Taliban's struggles post-2021 takeover. This isolation threatens Syria's economic stability, making HTS's diplomatic maneuvers critical for survival.

The Future of Syria under HTS

The episode culminates with reflections on Syria's uncertain future. While HTS exhibits organized governance, deep-seated authoritarianism and sectarian biases pose significant threats to genuine democratic transition.

At 22:11, Sam Heller expresses concern:

"Absence some new change, it doesn't seem like it would accommodate Syrian minorities now or also Sunni Muslim Syrians who are not on board with more conservative political Islam and then who want to live a secular existence."

These reservations highlight the potential for continued conflict and marginalization of minority groups, despite initial hopes for liberation from Assad's regime.

Conclusion: Weighing Rebel Rule Against a Dictatorship

Max Fisher concludes by weighing the grim prospects of rebel governance against the oppressive Assad dictatorship. While rebel-led governments come with their own set of challenges, the alternative under Assad remains dire.

He reflects:

"I would also rather live under any of those rebel governments than under the Assad dictatorship or definitely amid the Syrian civil war."

Sam Heller shares a similar sentiment, expressing worry over Syria's trajectory:

"I'm like very worried for what comes next."

The episode leaves listeners with a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved when rebel groups transition into governing bodies, emphasizing the fine line between liberation and authoritarianism.

Notable Quotes

• Erin Ryan, 00:00: "The light says, oh, God, there is life."
• Brian Domini, 03:16: "The country prides itself as... the Singapore of Africa."
• Sam Heller, 04:55: "They've done smart work, kind of imposing a number of taxes..."
• Ahmed Al Shara (Abu Mohammed Al Jelani), 07:27: "We are not talking about rule by individuals or personal whims."
• Sam Heller, 16:01: "There is some sort of basic Islamism on which they have been unwilling to compromise or abandon."
• Sam Heller, 22:11: "It doesn't seem like it would accommodate Syrian minorities now..."

Final Thoughts

This episode of What A Day offers a comprehensive exploration of the dynamics at play when rebel groups ascend to national power. Through historical parallels, expert analysis, and on-the-ground narratives, listeners gain a multifaceted perspective on the potential paths Syria may navigate in its quest for stability and governance post-Assad.