What the 2024 Voter Breakdown Reveals About America Podcast: What A Day by Crooked Media
Host: Jane Coaston
Release Date: November 9, 2024

In the latest episode of What A Day, hosts Max Fisher and Erin Ryan delve deep into the 2024 election results to uncover what the voter breakdown reveals about the current state and future trajectory of America. Through meticulous analysis of exit polls and county-level data, they explore the shifting political landscape across various demographics, including gender, race, ethnicity, and age.

1. Understanding the Data: Reliability of Exit Polls and County-Level Insights

Max and Erin begin by addressing the reliability of exit polls, cautioning listeners against over-reliance on them due to their potential inaccuracies. They reference the 2016 election as an example, where exit polls overestimated Donald Trump's support among white women.

Erin Ryan [01:31]: "One of those is exit polls, which can be notoriously unreliable… Later studies put the number closer to 47 for Trump and 45 for Clinton."

Transitioning to county-level data, they highlight its greater reliability since it involves actual vote counts rather than sampled responses.

2. National Shift Towards Trump: A Comprehensive Breakdown

Top Line Numbers:

• Nationally, Trump shifted 6 points upward, expanding his vote share in every state.
• In 90% of counties, his margin grew by an average of 3 points in counties he previously dominated and by 4 points in those favoring Biden.
• Demographic Gains: Trump increased his support across cities, suburbs, rural areas, predominantly white counties, racially diverse counties, older and younger populations alike.

Max Fisher [02:25]: "It was, in other words, a blowout across the board."

Theories Behind the Shift:

1. Sexism and Racism: Erin attributes part of Trump's success to the intensification of sexism and racism, which amplify existing prejudices against Kamala Harris.

   Erin Ryan [03:27]: "Sexism and racism… are intensifiers when people have smaller reasons to not support a candidate."

2. Support for Far-Right Values: Max suggests that a segment of the electorate resonates with Trump's clear far-right messaging, aligning with global trends favoring authoritarian figures.

   Max Fisher [03:27]: "Some proportion of voters actively chose Trump because they like what he's selling."

3. Anti-Incumbent Sentiment: A generalized backlash against the incumbent party, fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with the country's direction.

   Max Fisher [03:27]: "It was a broader anti-incumbent, throw out whoever is in power feeling across the board."

The third theory—that Harris's campaign failed—is dismissed based on data showing that in areas where both candidates campaigned heavily, Kamala actually improved her vote share.

3. Economic Concerns and Voter Behavior

Importance of the Economy:

• Key Issue: Approximately one-third of voters cited the economy as the most important issue in the election.
• Financial Struggles: Nearly half of the voters felt their family's financial situation had worsened over the past four years, with a significant shift toward Trump among this group.

Max Fisher [08:43]: "Almost half of voters in the country said their family's financial situation was worse than it was four years ago. Trump carried that group by 81 points to 17."

Inflation and Perceived Economic Health:

While macroeconomic indicators like job growth and stock market gains were positive, everyday Americans faced rising costs, particularly in groceries. Erin points out the disconnect between national economic reports and the lived experiences of voters.

Erin Ryan [10:38]: "Economic indicators… have fully decoupled from the lived experiences of most everyday Americans."

She further explains how increased costs of daily essentials combined with the loss of affordable luxuries contributed to voter dissatisfaction.

Erin Ryan [10:38]: "It was kind of a double whammy."

Max reinforces the idea that inflation universally triggers voter backlash against incumbents, a trend observed globally.

Max Fisher [11:22]: "When inflation reaches above normal levels, voters really, really push to throw out whoever happens to be in office."

4. Gender Breakdown: Women's Voting Patterns Amid Abortion Debates

Contrary to expectations, Trump not only maintained but slightly improved his standing among women voters, a demographic previously seen as critical to Democratic victories due to abortion rights.

Max Fisher [14:30]: "Trump improved by twice as much among women, the group that was supposed to be fatal to him."

Factors Influencing Women's Votes:

• Abortion Referendums: Direct referendums in states like Florida showed continued support for abortion rights, yet Trump's campaign successfully distanced himself from enforcing federal abortion bans.

  Erin Ryan [16:03]: "Trump… rebranding of abortion bans as… 'national minimum standards'… soothing voters into believing that he wasn't going to make things worse for them."

• Campaign Messaging: Trump's promises not to enact a national abortion ban alleviated fears among women voters, despite ongoing concerns.

5. Race and Ethnicity: Latino Voters as a Decisive Bloc

Black Voters:

• Remained overwhelmingly Democratic, consistent with 2020 trends.

White Voters:

• Trump slightly lost ground, with his margin among white men and women shrinking by a few points.

Latino Voters:

• Women: Trump's lead among Latina women decreased from a 39-point to a 24-point margin.
• Men: The most significant shift was observed among Latino men, who traditionally voted Democratic. In 2020, Latino men favored Biden 59 to 44, but in 2024, the numbers flipped to Trump 54 to Biden 44—a 25-point shift.

Max Fisher [20:12]: "Trump flipped Latino men who have voted Democratic in every election since the advent of exit polling."

Possible Reasons for the Shift:

• Misogyny in Latino Communities: Erin suggests that ingrained misogynistic attitudes may have influenced Latino men's support for Trump, especially concerning Kamala Harris's policies.

  Erin Ryan [21:31]: "Misogyny… cannot be teased out of their voting patterns."

• Conservative Views on Immigration and Race: Political scientist John Seydz's research indicates growing conservatism among Latino voters on immigration and race, aligning with Trump's messaging.

Max Fisher [23:27]: "Views on immigration and on race are becoming much more conservative."

6. Age Demographics: Gen X and Gen Z Trends

Gen X:

• Support for Trump: Increased by 8 points, moving from a 1-point lead to a stronger preference.

  Max Fisher [25:29]: "Trump significantly outperformed 2020 in every state with men and women. Historic blowout among Latinos… Boosted with Gen X and Gen Z."

• Reasons: Feelings of being overlooked and marginalized, leading Gen Xers to support Trump as a figure who addresses their sense of neglect.

  Erin Ryan [25:57]: "Gen X is a generation of people who, throughout their lives has had their needs kind of pushed to the side and marginalized."

Gen Z:

• Mixed Results: While Biden maintained a lead among Gen Z overall, Trump made notable gains, especially among Latino Gen Z men.

  Max Fisher [28:04]: "Gen Z men… being blocked off from being the economic breadwinners… crisis of meaning."

• Challenges: Gen Z men face a "crisis of masculinity" and a search for meaning in a rapidly changing social and economic landscape, making them susceptible to Trump's messaging.

Erin Ryan [29:29]: "There's a crisis of meaning for a lot of these people… They're finding meaning in places that are feeding them bullshit for who they need to blame for this crisis of meaning."

7. Concluding Insights: Temporary Backlash or Permanent Realignment?

Max and Erin discuss whether the 2024 election results signify a temporary backlash against the incumbent or a lasting realignment of American politics.

Erin Ryan [31:44]: "I think that we are living in a phase of the backlash cycle that will always cycle back."

Max Fisher [32:12]: "There are a lot of shifts that are more durable, especially among Latino voters and especially among Latino men and Gen X."

Key Takeaways:

• Backlash Dynamics: Economic dissatisfaction and social discontent can create significant but potentially temporary shifts in voter behavior.
• Durable Shifts: Changes among Latino voters, Gen X, and Gen Z may have long-term implications for future elections.
• Future Implications: Understanding these shifts is crucial for developing strategies to address voter concerns and mitigate polarization.

Erin Ryan [32:12]: "The repercussions of it will be years or generations long. And I am feeling pretty dark about that."

Max Fisher [34:31]: "We do have to think about what especially these young men are gonna be looking at and what their politics are gonna be."

Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with a blend of humor and somber reflection, emphasizing the importance of understanding the data to navigate America's complex political landscape.

Erin Ryan [34:58]: "We have to understand what happened. Right? And then we move on to the why it happened and then we move on to the how and how to fix it."

Max Fisher [34:58]: "There's no medicine like laughter."

Conclusion

The 2024 election revealed significant shifts in voter behavior across various demographics in America. While some changes may represent temporary backlash against the current administration, others, particularly among Latino voters, Gen X, and Gen Z, suggest more enduring realignments. Understanding these dynamics is essential for grappling with the nation's future political direction.

Note: This summary excludes advertisement segments and focuses solely on the substantive discussions between Max Fisher and Erin Ryan.