Why Iran Spells Trouble For The GOP

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Why Iran Spells Trouble For The GOP"

Podcast: What A Day
Host: Greg Walters (in for Jane Coaston)
Date: April 13, 2026
Duration: ~20 minutes

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives into the significant political and economic fallout facing the Republican Party due to President Donald Trump's inability to swiftly end the ongoing war with Iran. Host Greg Walters unpacks how this drawn-out conflict and resulting global oil disruptions have put GOP midterm prospects in peril, fueled public discontent, and provoked infighting among influential conservatives. Featuring political reporter Daniela Diaz, the episode thoroughly examines what these developments might mean for November—and for Trump’s hold on power.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iran War and Economic Fallout

[00:22-02:08]

• Trump's promise to "measure our success... by the wars we end, and... the wars we never get into" is contrasted by the reality in 2026, with the Iran war dragging on.
• The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 20% of global oil from markets, sending prices soaring and causing major anxiety for the US economy.
• Trump is now hedging on earlier claims that higher oil prices would be “a blip.”
  • Quote:
    • Trump: “I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be. It could be the same, or maybe a little bit higher.” ([02:03])
• The pain at the pump is a direct electoral threat for Republicans.

2. Blowback Among GOP and MAGA Influencers

[02:08-02:57]

• High-profile conservative influencers are publicly breaking with Trump over the war.
  • Alex Jones notably calls Trump “an idiot”—a sign of how far the MAGA community’s patience has frayed.
• Congressional Republicans, too, are nervous: their majority is at risk and they have little to show their constituents.

3. Republican Campaign Anxiety—Insights from Daniela Diaz

[02:59-09:02]

• Diaz reports that rank-and-file Republicans are “very concerned” and struggling to explain both the war’s purpose and costs to voters.
  • Quote:
    • Diaz: “They do not know how to explain this war and what it’s costing... it’s not really breaking through to the average American low information voter.” ([03:42])
• The Senate majority is now in play as Democrats see a chance to capitalize on GOP missteps, rising costs, and perceived broken promises.
• Special election results (e.g., a liberal judge’s landslide in Wisconsin, the underperformance of new GOP candidates in safe districts) are viewed as “a vibe check for where things are right now and how voters feel.” ([05:56])
• Democrats are winning elections on “affordability”—an issue directly tied to oil prices and inflation from the Iran conflict.

4. MAGA Fracture and Trump’s Response

[07:06-09:02]

• MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene are vocally opposing Trump’s war, a dramatic shift given their historic support.
  • Quote:
    • Diaz: “[Tucker Carlson] has always been a staunch supporter... The fact that Tucker... is speaking out against these issues... If I were President Donald Trump, I would be very concerned.” ([07:54])
• Trump’s dismissive response—labeling such critics “losers”—risks alienating his base and eroding campaign momentum.

5. How Democrats Could Still “Screw It Up”

[09:02-10:16]

• Diaz cautions that Democrats could fumble if they stray from their message of economic affordability or engage in public infighting.
  • Quote:
    • Diaz: “If they just run on being anti-Donald Trump... that’s not what polls show voters care about. Voters care about the issues.” ([09:44])

6. Potential Catastrophe for Trump’s Power

[10:16-11:41]

• Should Republicans lose the House and/or Senate, Trump's legislative agenda could grind to a halt, and Democrats would gain subpoena and investigative powers.
  • Quote:
    • Diaz: “If the Senate becomes Democratic, too, that could really be the final nail in the coffin for anything he tries to do from the White House.” ([11:28])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Michelle Obama’s Quote on America ([00:18])
  • "I think we're in just a janky version, right?... Shit is jank right now."
• Alex Jones on Trump ([02:08]):
  • "I'm done. Because you're an idiot."
• On Republican Confusion ([03:42]):
  • "They do not know how to explain this war and what it's costing, the nuance of it... It's not really breaking through to the average American low information voter." – Diaz
• On MAGA Fracturing ([07:26]):
  • "It's not great for President Trump to not have these people... advocating for him... If I were President Donald Trump, I would be very concerned." – Diaz
• On Potential Loss of Power ([11:28]):
  • "If the Senate becomes Democratic, too, that could really be the final nail in the coffin for anything he tries to do..."

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Important Timestamps by Segment

• 00:22 — Trump’s broken promise on “wars we end”
• 01:27 — Failure of peace talks with Iran
• 02:08 — Conservative backlash, economic risks for GOP
• 02:59 — Daniela Diaz joins, reports on GOP worries
• 03:42 — Difficulty communicating the war to voters
• 04:31 — Senate now in play for Democrats
• 05:40 — Significance of special elections as midterm indicators
• 07:26 — MAGA influencer division over Trump
• 09:11 — Ways Democrats could lose momentum
• 10:24 — The stakes for Trump’s second term if he loses Congress

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Closing News Recap

[15:08–End] (additional headlines)

• Trump proposes an “American blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz (a contradiction, as the US opposes Iran’s own blockade).
• J.D. Vance fails in both Middle Eastern peace talks and in his support of ousted Hungarian PM Viktor Orban.
• Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends CA governor campaign over sexual misconduct allegations and loses support.
• NASA’s Artemis 2 crew safely returns after a historic lunar flyby.

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Takeaway

This episode delivers a pointed, accessible analysis of how the Iran conflict has become the GOP's Achilles’ heel, stoking internal dissent, fueling economic pain, and providing Democrats with unexpected momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. Expertly blending insider perspective with clear explanations, it’s essential listening for anyone tracking the intersection of US foreign policy, economics, and the heated partisan landscape.

Transcript

[Greg Walters]

Foreign It's Monday, April 13th. I'm Greg Walters in for Jane Coastin, and this is what a Day. The show that agrees with what former first lady Michelle Obama told comedian Hasan Minhaj about the current state of America on a recent episode of her podcast.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

I think we're in just a janky version, right?

[Greg Walters]

Yeah, janky's right. It's a janky version right now. May I curse Mrs. Obama? You may, yeah. Shit is jank right now. Yeah, it's super jank. I can't disagree. Things are super jank. On today's show. Vice President J.D. vance strikes out in both Pakistan and Hungary, and the crew of the Artemis 2 hits a home run with their return to Earth. But let's start with the Iran war and how President Donald Trump's failure to wrap it up is making Republicans very, very nervous about about the upcoming midterms. On the day he was sworn in, Trump gave us a very clear way to judge his second term.

[Donald Trump]

We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.

[Greg Walters]

None of that has aged well. On Sunday, a very tired looking JD Vance emerged from 21 hours of high stakes peace talks to say we go

[Daniela Diaz]

back to the United States having not come to an agreement.

[Greg Walters]

That must have been a long trip home. The failure to end this war comes with serious economic and political consequences. For starters, unless the US can somehow unblock the Strait of Hormuz waterway, 20% of the world's oil will remain off limits, which puts the US Economy in real jeopardy. Trump has been promising us that higher oil prices would be a blip. Now he's not so sure. Here he is on Fox's Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo. So do you believe the price of

[Daniela Diaz]

oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?

[Donald Trump]

I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be. It could be the same, or maybe a little bit higher.

[Greg Walters]

The gap between promises made and promises very much not kept is causing serious blowback at the top of MAGA Mount Olympus. We've seen a furious backlash from the likes of big name MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Candace Owens. Take Alex Jones, who used to be one of Trump's biggest fans. Here's how he talks about Trump. I'm done. Because you're an idiot. It's always weird when the conspiracy theorist starts making sense. Congressional Republicans are also getting jumpy because their majorities are on the line. Higher oil prices are the last thing they want in an election year, especially when they're the result of Trump's war of choice in the Middle East. To help me unpack what all this means for the midterms, I spoke to Daniela Diaz. She she's a reporter covering politics in Congress for notice. Daniella, welcome to what a day.

[Daniela Diaz]

Thanks for having me.

[Greg Walters]

So you've been talking to a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill and out in the campaign trail and as the midterms get closer and this conflict refuses to end, how worried are they?

[Daniela Diaz]

Very concerned. I know that there's a lot of concern amongst rank and file Republicans, Greg, that there is no end in sight about this war against the news that has come out in the last couple of days, even in the last day, has not been positive when these peace deal talks are not reaching a conclusion. And the reality is that these Republicans who want to campaign on domestic wins, who feel that President Donald Trump was elected for president on an America first policy agenda, don't know how to explain this war to their constituents. I've talked to a lot of Republican House members. I won't name them because a lot of them only really talk to me because they talk to me on background, off the record. But they do not know how to explain this war and what it's costing, the nuance of it. It's not really breaking through to the average American low information voter. So there's a lot of concern with Republican lawmakers that this could drag on and it could be harder for them to be able to defend it as get closer to November.

[Greg Walters]

A source close to the White House told Politico last week, quote, this war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November, the Senate and the House. And my thought was the Senate really, is the Senate actually in play here?

[Daniela Diaz]

I think yes. And if Democrats are able to get people to the polls and have historic turnout in November, which is what they're hoping for, what they're expecting, we could see some scenarios where some of these seats flip and Democrats could take back the majority. It's certainly more likely when I talk to experts and leadership, Democratic leadership now than it might have been even just a couple of months ago just because of the way things have turned out in the White House. The things that we've seen President Donald Trump do that has been angering voters across the country. They're feeling buyer's remorse for supporting him when they see the gas prices go up, don't quite understand why their gas prices are going up for a war they don't necessarily understand we're in. They don't understand why may he he might be doing renovations at the White House and spending money that when they have a hard time being able to pay rent, seeing their taxes go up. So those issues are really going to make voters turn out potentially in November in the way it looks right now. Not great for Republicans.

[Greg Walters]

Democrats have had a strong run of showings in special elections this year. Last week, a liberal judge won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race by roughly 20 points. Do these special elections mean anything?

[Daniela Diaz]

Yes, absolutely. That's why we pay so much attention to these very random special elections as reporters. Another race that I watched closely, not as much as the Wisconsin special election, but I watched what happened when Marjorie Taylor Green's seat, she obviously resigned from Congress in January and she represented a ruby red district in Georgia. However, the Republican pick and the the candidate that won that seat didn't win by the numbers that Marjorie Taylor Greene has won in the past, which is a litmus test, I would say, a vibe check for where things are right now and how voters feel. If I were a Republican member running for a reelection, I'd be paying close attention to these numbers across the country in these special elections. I'm gonna flash back a couple of months. We saw the governor's race in Virginia and New Jersey. We saw Democrats win those seats, and they won on the issue of affordability. Affordability is something that Democrats are sticking to and campaigning on. And it's a very strong message ahead of what we're seeing Trump administration do abroad. And in speaking out against that and speaking out against the Iran war and the attentions from the White House and speaking out against the Epstein files, there's a lot of issues that Democrats could really hit the ground running on these next couple months and have been, which could be really beneficial for them ahead of the November midterms.

[Greg Walters]

Well, now, speaking of Marjorie Taylor Greene, she is just one of a series of big MAGA names, including Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, who have been extremely critical of Donald Trump over this war. We've heard a lot less from congressional Republicans, even though they're up for reelection and have a lot at stake now, what's going on there?

[Daniela Diaz]

Isn't it so interesting watching these Republican influencers, these MAGA influencers who have always stuck with Trump, who are part of the reason why he was able to win his race in 2024 against Vice President Kamala Harris, and now we're seeing them break from him on a majority of issues that they do not understand. We're seeing them break on the Israel Hama war. We're seeing them break on the Iran war. And it's not great for President Trump to not have these people on their soapboxes advocating for him, promoting him. I mean, Tucker Carlson has always been a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump. He has always spoken out for President Donald Trump, and he has a massive following. The fact that Tucker Carlson is speaking out against these issues from the White House. If I were President Donald Trump, I would be very concerned. However, what we've seen from the president is him stand by his own beliefs and what he thinks is the right thing to do and call these MAGA influencers. You know, I don't want to use this exact words, but losers, I'm not sure that's going to work in the long run. Like I said, a lot of these folks have massive followings. A lot of their followings voted for President Donald Trump. I do think it's important to remember that he still has three years to go and he needs to, you would think, want to keep his majority because that's what allows him to be able to implement his agenda. So losing them could be incredibly difficult for him. Should he lose the majority in the Senate or the House or both in November because these MAGA influencers are breaking from him.

[Greg Walters]

So despite all these trends, Democrats are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. How can they still screw this up?

[Daniela Diaz]

Oh, there's so many ways that they could screw this up, Greg. One of the biggest things that I think could happen is if they don't stick to their message of affordability, which they already have seen in poll after poll, is winning for them. That could be a way that they don't win in November. That's an issue that they've been running on. That's an issue that will help them. And if they get distracted, if there's infighting, it's important for Democrats to stick together and try to seem like the adults in the room when it comes to what's happening with Republicans and President Donald Trump, who they consistently criticize. Another thing that could fail for them is if they just run on being anti Donald Trump. That's not what polls show voters care about. Voters care about the issues. They care about being able to afford their things. That's why affordability is such a major, major win. And if they continue to run on that, that'll work. But again, should they get distracted, not have a cohesive message, worry about things that have nothing to do with the issues that American voters care about, that could be the way they screwed up.

[Greg Walters]

So to wrap this up, if these trends continue, what will they mean for Donald Trump's power in his second term?

[Daniela Diaz]

It could be catastrophic for him if he does not keep the House or potentially even the Senate, considering that map's a little harder but could happen in November. I think it's important to remember here, Greg, that should the House go back to Democratic majority, that means Democrats would have investigations and subpoena power. And they're very influential, important committees. Think the Oversight Committee, think the Judiciary Committee. Right now, Republicans hold that power and they're the only ones that are able to subpoena. And should Democrats have that, they're going to start investigating the president and people around him. So it seems that President Donald Trump might be forgetting that. And if I were him or people around him, I try to really try to focus on the issues that Americans care about these next couple of months in an effort to keep their majority. So it could be really damaging for him and he won't be able to enact any of his agenda if he doesn't have the House. And if the Senate becomes Democratic, too, that could really be the final nail in the coffin for anything he tries to do from the White House. It would essentially mean he's going to continue trying to bypass Congress, which we've already seen him do time and time again. But it could be even messier for him considering Democrats won't stand back, maybe the way we've seen Republicans stand back.

[Greg Walters]

Daniela Diaz, thank you so much for being with us.

[Daniela Diaz]

Thank you.

[Greg Walters]

That was my conversation with Daniella Diaz, a reporter covering politics in Congress. For notice, we'll be here every day giving you the news you need leading up to the midterms and beyond. So if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple podcasts. Watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. We'll be right back after some ads.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

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[Greg Walters]

here's what else we're following today.

[Daniela Diaz]

Head of lines

[Donald Trump]

well, we're going to be blockading. It'll take a little while, but it'll be effective pretty soon.

[Greg Walters]

That is Trump's baffling response to Maria Bartiromo on the failure of peace talks over the weekend. An American blockade on the street of Hormuz. Which is interesting because I thought the US Was fighting to stop Iran from blockading the Strait of Hormuz. It's like when you take away the teenager's car keys and in response he slashes his own tires. You can't blockade me. I blockade you. Uno reverse card. Trump seems outraged that this war has revealed the power Iran has to stop shipping in this all important waterway. He also seems mad that Iran is reportedly demanding a fleet fee from ships trying to get through. Trump posted on Truth Social that the US Navy will seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. So what's next? Well, the fragile two week ceasefire announced last week will now be put to the test. Iran's top negotiator says the U.S. hasn't done enough to win Iran's trust. J.D. vance said Sunday that the U.S. gave Iran its final and best offer. Those fruitless peace talks weren't the only big womp womp in Vance's international failure tour. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban was ousted in a parliamentary election on Sunday after 16 consecutive years in power. His first term as prime Minister began in 1998. Which means this guy started running Hungary before Bill Clinton got impeached. Yeah, it's been that long. But what does this have to do with our guy? J.D. well, last week Vance visited Hungary to campaign for Orban, dubbing the populist leader a defender of, quote, Western civilization. Somehow Vance's endorsement wasn't enough to seal the deal. Voters rejected Orban's far right authoritarian policies in favor of the center right opposition party and its pro European Union, pro NATO leader Peter Magyar. Orban, a close ally of both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, conceded defeat and called the election result painful. No word yet on how Vance feels. Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for governor of California Sunday night after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN each published stories on Friday detailing allegations of sexual misconduct. Both articles feature a former staffer who said Swalwell sexually assaulted her on two separate occasions. CNN's article also included claims made by three other women who first connected with Swalwell on social media, ranging from unsolicited nudes to ending up drunk in his hotel room. Unsure what happened, Swalwell denied the allegations forcefully in a statement. But on Sunday, the Manhattan district attorney opened an investigation into his former staffer's claims regarding the alleged assault in New York City. Swalwell also lost a ton of endorsements over the weekend, including from his fellow Democrats in Congress, and over 50 of his own former staffers called on him not only to drop out of the race, but also to resign from Congress.

[Donald Trump]

From the pages of Jules Verne to a modern day mission to the Moon, a new chapter of the exploration of our celestial neighbor is complete. Integrity's astronauts back on Earth the crew

[Greg Walters]

of NASA's Artemis 2 landed safely off the coast of San Diego on Saturday evening, ending their successful 10 day trip around the moon.

[Daniela Diaz]

Whew.

[Greg Walters]

That's a relief. The Artemis 2 mission was the first manned lunar flyby in more than 50 years. It confirmed that the Orion spacecraft systems can indeed operate in deep space with a crew on board, which TBH is something I'd like to have confirmed before takeoff. The four brave astronauts on the Orion now have been farther away from Earth than any other humans in history and most importantly, are home safe to tell the story. Houston, thank God there were no problems besides those unfortunate toilet issues. And that's the news. Before we go. If you've been following the latest headlines around policing and immigration enforcement and the Empire City Podcast Club from Crooked Ideas is the place to fully unpack it. Each week, host Chenjerai Kumunika and special guests dig into the systems behind those stories, how this power was built, who it serves, and what it means for public safety. Right now, each session focuses on a new theme with space to connect the dots and ask bigger questions. Whether you've been tracking every headline or just starting to tune in, you can be part of the conversation. We'll send a reminder before things kick off. The next session is tomorrow, April 14th at 5pm Pacific Time, 8pm Eastern Time. Sign up at crookedideas.org empirecity the link is in our show notes. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review and welcome Congress back to work this week after a very long break that I'm sure was very pleasant. And tell your friends to listen. And if you were into reading and not just about how Congress has been out of session while while all this is happening, like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and [e-mail], subscribe I'm Greg Walters. And open up the Department of Homeland Security. It's been long enough already. Get to work. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producer is Emily Foer. Our producer is Caitlin Plummer. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Joanna Case. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison. And our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. Our theme music is by Kyle Murdoch and Jordan Kantor. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.