What A Day – Episode Summary

Podcast: What A Day (Crooked Media)
Episode: Will Trump’s Trade Truce With China Last?
Host: Jane Coaston
Date: October 31, 2025

Overview

In this episode, host Jane Coaston dissects President Trump’s newly announced “trade truce” with China following a 90-minute summit with President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The episode features an interview with Evan Medeiros (Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies at Georgetown University, specializing in US–China relations) for expert analysis. The conversation explores what’s really inside the purported “deal,” how Trump’s approach to China has evolved, implications for US tech supremacy, and the risks of Trump’s transactional foreign policy. The episode closes with a brisk survey of other top headlines, including Halloween ICE operations, SNAP benefits amid a government shutdown, and the administration’s new, sharply restricted refugee cap.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Opening: The “Greatest Meeting” Ever?

• Trump touts the summit as a historic success: “Greatest meeting in the history of meetings” (Trump, [01:11]).
• Despite the boast, actual deliverables are vague: temporary tariff reductions in exchange for increased Chinese purchases of American agriculture.
• The truce is short-term, with few binding measures, and closely resembles previous agreements.

[02:30] Expert Breakdown: What’s Actually in the Deal?

Guest: Evan Medeiros (Asia scholar, Georgetown)
Topics:

• The deal is “very limited… a bunch of short-term tactical concessions that essentially de-escalated the trade war” ([02:59]).
  • US lowers tariffs; China suspends export controls, agrees to buy more US soy and grains.
• Major outcome: Opened the door to 10-12 months of top-level diplomacy and further negotiations—state visits planned.

[04:05] Did China Win?

• Medeiros: China wanted much more, especially US tech.
  • “China, for example, wanted access to very advanced [AI] chips… The most advanced chips we have that are used for training LLMs… Chinese can’t build these chips. They’re trying. But until they build them, they need our chips.” ([04:12-04:41]).
• The US held firm on high-end chip sales, due to earlier Biden-era export controls.
• China scores a 10% tariff reduction; makes its exports to the US more competitive.
• Both sides get a little, but “nobody really got a lot” ([05:47]).

[05:52] Trump’s Evolving China Playbook

• Trump lacks ideological consistency: not a China hawk, prefers dealmaking with strongmen over systemic rivalry.
• Sharp difference from first term:
  • “[He] basically wrote the first version of the script on strategic competition with China, and now he’s… flipping the script… focusing on just doing commercial deals with Xi Jinping and… picking fights with American allies and partners” ([06:04-07:06]).
• This pivot raises risks for long-term US strategy.

[07:06] Nuclear Testing Shockwave

• Trump asks Pentagon to start nuclear tests “on an equal basis with Russia and China”—announced on Truth Social.
  • Medeiros: “To sum it up in three letters, WTF?” ([07:20]).
• Ending the decades-old norm would likely provoke an arms race.
  • “If we start conducting nuclear tests, the Russians and the Chinese are going to do the same thing… makes the Cold War look a bit like a garden party” ([07:26-08:25]).
• This conflates economic tensions with nuclear brinkmanship—deepening global instability.

[08:25] Other Trade Announcements: Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia

• Announced agreements mostly clarify earlier bilateral deals (Japan commits $550 billion in US investments, Korea $350 billion).
• With Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia): marginal tariff reductions negotiated after sharply raising them on "Liberation Day."
• US wins greater market access—but only after creating the crisis by ramping up tariffs in the first place.
  • Medeiros: “We created this entire problem” ([09:32]).
• Trump’s “transactional and coercive” trade method risks pushing Asian partners closer to China in the long term ([09:47-10:57]).

[10:57] What to Watch Next

• Will China actually deliver on agricultural and energy purchases?
• Uncertainty over export controls—will secondary AI chips leak to China?
• Did Trump really raise tough issues (like China’s oil trade with Russia, or Taiwan)?
  • “The worst kept secret in Washington is that Trump is at best ambivalent about Taiwan. He’s much more interested in dealing with China…” ([11:52]).
• The Taiwan issue is bound to re-emerge, as Chinese leadership never drops it ([12:54]).

[13:06] Guest Wrap-Up

• Medeiros underscores the high stakes and ambiguity going forward.
• The conversation ends on a note of watchfulness for future developments.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump, on his summit with Xi:
  “It was the greatest meeting in the history of meetings.” ([01:15])
• Medeiros, on the nuclear testing announcement:
  “To sum it up in three letters, WTF?” ([07:20])
• Medeiros, on US trade tactics:
  “Trump’s whole approach to trade is to basically use access to the US market as a source of coercion… If you want us to diffuse this ticking time bomb, you need to agree to enhanced market access… It’s a very transactional and coercive way to get better access to countries' markets.” ([09:47])
• Medeiros, on Trump's pivot:
  “In his first term, he basically wrote the first version of the script on strategic competition with China, and now he’s… flipping the script and saying, ‘I’m not going to compete with China. I’m going to defund American science and tech, and I’m going to focus on just doing commercial deals with Xi Jinping.’” ([06:37])
• Medeiros, on the long-term danger:
  “It creates incentives for economies in Southeast Asia to trade more with China than with the United States. That’s the real problem that we face.” ([10:57])

Timestamps for Significant Segments

• [00:29] Brief summary of Halloween news; setup for the China coverage
• [01:11] Trump proclaims “greatest meeting”; outlines deal at a high level
• [02:46] Interview with Evan Medeiros begins
• [02:59] Medeiros details the terms and limitations of the truce
• [04:05] Discussion of who “won” the deal
• [06:04] Trump’s evolving strategy on China
• [07:06] Nuclear testing announcement and its alarming implications
• [08:25] Other regional trade agreements—what’s new and what’s more of the same
• [09:47] The transactional, coercive nature of current US trade diplomacy
• [10:57] Watchlist for coming months: outcomes, deliverables, and Taiwan tensions
• [14:00+] News round-up on ICE Halloween controversy, SNAP benefits, classified military briefings, refugee policy

Additional Headlines Covered

(Segment begins at [16:02])

• ICE operations proceed during Halloween in Chicago despite pleas from local officials—tear gas was reportedly used at a children's parade ([16:09-16:54]).
• SNAP benefits threatened by government shutdown; legal battle continues over emergency funding ([17:29-18:48]).
• Trump’s restricted refugee cap: only 7,500 admissions, focused on white South Africans ([20:21]).
• Congressional outrage—Democrats excluded from classified briefings on overseas military strikes ([18:54]).
• Sharp political commentary: new refugee criteria and war powers moves are termed “corrosive… and downright dangerous for our national security” ([18:54]).

Tone and Style

Jane Coaston’s hosting balances substantive analysis with wry, pointed humor (e.g., on Trump’s nuclear posture: “I don’t like that at all” [08:25]; on ICE at Halloween: “It’s the one night a year when it’s acceptable to wear a mask” [16:54]). The conversation with Medeiros is frank, pithy, and accessible, blending policy wonkery with clear explanations (“LLMs,” “export controls,” etc.) for general listeners. The tone remains skeptical of administration spin, focused on exposing real policy consequences.

Conclusion

This episode illustrates the lack of depth and permanence in Trump’s latest truce with China, highlighting the administration’s pivot away from strategic rivalry to transactional deal-making, the risks of coercive trade bargaining, and the dangerous flirtation with a new nuclear arms race. Expert guest Evan Medeiros offers sobering context, noting that headline announcements mask deeper ambiguity and risk—for both US power and global stability. The episode closes with a rapid summary of other major news stories, maintaining the podcast’s trademark mix of clarity and wit.