E (2:56)

Thanks for having me.

A (2:58)

You wrote something recently that I thought was really interesting, which is that you don't think this government shutdown matters as much as everyone thinks. Why do you think that and why do you think that is?

E (3:09)

Well, Jane, I think in general, we tend to overestimate what people actually care about. As the fact is, journalists, people who cover politics, pollsters, these are all within the top.01% of engaged political viewers in the United States. And so we've lost touch with what people really care about. We've lost touch with how people respond to events. But if you go back and look at the last few shutdowns, you'll see that, like, in general, most people don't really remember shutdowns by the time the next election comes around, at least over the last 10, 15 years.

A (3:46)

Can you tell me a little bit more about that? Because I think that, again, yes, I am a political junkie. It is a real problem, and I also talk about it all the time. But also I'm aware that a shutdown cuts off payments to federal workers and closes museums. And, like, it does cause a lot of drama. Why do you think that that drama fades from public memory so quickly? Because I, I actually agree with you. I was thinking about the 2013 shutdown, which was caused in part by Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. And then in 2014, Republicans did great in the midterms. Like, why do you think that is?

E (4:26)

Yeah, it's weird, right? Like, a federal shutdown has so many consequences, and families all across America feel it and feel it deep. It's not clear that they actually care about it by the time it comes to vote a year later. And people have other things that are at the front of their mind. They're getting their pay again, you know, and it's important to remember, as large of an employer as the federal government is, very few Americans as a percent of America actually work for the federal government. So they don't feel the pain as acutely as federal workers would. But on top of that, generally speaking, people also don't tend to keep these things in mind because it's out of sight, out of mind. Once it actually happens, it's not a continuing thing for them. So that's why they don't seem to vote on it, because it's not continuing, in effect, so it's not impacting their life right now.

A (5:19)

There was a clip on C SPAN last week of a voter who called in to tell House Speaker Mike Johnson that if the troops missed their paycheck this week, they could lose medical care for their kids. So I understand, like, yes, most people are not federal employees. Most people are not going to remember the shutdown next year. But let's say if military families miss their paychecks or if this goes on for a really long time, is there a chance that things could be different this time?

E (5:48)

I would doubt it because again, we have to look at the share of people who are actually going to change their vote on this. Firstly, less than 3% of Americans work for the federal government. Right. Like the federal government is the largest employer in America. But less than 3% of Americans are actually in a household that gets income, I believe, from a federal employee earning money. So that's already, number one. Number two, how many of those people are actually movable partisans? Maybe like a fifth of that percent. So you're looking at, like, less than like, 0.5% of the electorate that's even going to feel the direct pain as a result of that. Now, if you think about that one year from now, who's going to remember that the military families missed their paycheck? Which sounds horrible to say and horrible to think about. But like in 2013, if you remember, we had this whole song and dance with the Republicans and the Affordable Care Act. Their polls plummeted because people immediately in the moment really cared about it. They were like, oh, this is terrible. You're shutting down the government for this. And then 2014 came around and they're like, I don't. Whatever that was a year ago, I don't really care about that. So that's why I think, again, like, the political electoral impact of the shutdown is being overstated, not the real human consequences. Those are there and those are horrible. But the electoral impact in 2026 is overstated.

A (7:17)

It looks like that for now, polls show that the Republicans are getting a lot of the blame for this shutdown. And to your. There's a good chance next year people will just not remember that. But you wrote that if this does get dragged out, it could negatively affect both parties. What would the consequences of that be and how will we know if that's what's happening?

E (7:37)

Yeah. If it gets dragged out, what may happen is, number one, public Opinion could temporarily turn against the Democrats if people think, hey, you know, the Democrats are the ones holding out and refusing to provide the votes for the government funding bill, ergo, we blame the Democrats. Right? Like, they could view the opposition party as in the wrong. And then the short term pressure from people could get to be so extreme the polls could temporarily crater like they did for the Republicans in 2013. Democrats would then provide the votes to open the government. That's one possibility. The other one, though, which I think is a little bit more likely, is that who controls the levers of government right now? The Republicans. Who holds the House, the Senate and the presidency? It's the Republicans. Most voters think, hey, Donald Trump is the president, Republicans hold power. Why is the government being shut down? And they're going to blame the Republicans. In that case, you see the Republicans poll standing plummet and you see them probably eliminate the filibuster to reopen the government because they realize, hey, we've got to do something here. We can't just say the public's going to blame the Democrats when we are the ones in power. So we get tasked with the responsibility of governing.

A (8:47)

Now, if shutdowns don't really affect elections, what incentive does anyone in Washington have to avoid future ones? Like, we could just be doing this all the time. I don't want to be France. I don't want to do this all the time. Are we just stuck in this cycle forever?

E (9:03)

Well, the reason shutdowns don't affect elections is because they generally get resolved well before an election.

A (9:09)

Right.

E (9:09)

Like, the reason we say the shutdown isn't going to matter is because we have a basic underpinning of faith that the government will get reopened and it will get reopen soon and that it will stay open if this is not the case. And if that breaks, you could see people start to care about the shutdown a little bit more. You know, if we're in like January or February, God forbid, and we get another one of these, and then we get another one of them in like June or July or depending on whatever happens, you could see it take more salience and then it becomes a real flashpoint. That's possible. That's why I don't think shutdowns are going to become like a every couple of months thing. But yeah, I don't like it.

A (9:45)

No, I don't like this at all. And I think I'm really appreciative of you being here because we have a very engaged and passionate audience at what a day. People who are super plugged in and care a lot about politics, which we do. But to your point, most people are not like that. So what is one thing about the government shutdown and its potential electoral impact that you think they should know? And is there anything that can be done about any of this?

E (10:12)

You know, one thing that I would say people should know is that things that matter are not necessarily always going to move voters at the ballot box. And things that move voters at the ballot box don't necessarily always matter. There's a correlation between the two, but they're not directly always connected. And so if you see the headlines and you're watching like, oh, the Republicans are airing ads on Fox News, hitting the Democrats on the shutdown, take a step back, pretend that you haven't read any of the news for the last week or two and then ask yourself, like, who is in power? Like, what do most people know about government? Right now? All they know is that Trump is the president. And maybe they know Republicans control the House and the Senate. From there, what do you think they're going to conclude? And the less you pay attention to these things actually, the better your political instincts get. Which is kind of funny and kind of counterintuitive. But I really think we would all benefit in analysis of long term implications if we were able to just turn off Twitter, turn off the news and say, how do most people process this?

A (11:18)

But people should still listen to my podcast. People should absolutely still listen to my podcast.

E (11:23)

Absolutely.

A (11:25)

Laksha Jane, thank you so much for joining me.

E (11:28)

Thank you for having me, Jane.

A (11:30)

That was my conversation with Laksha Jain, head of political data for the Argument. We'll link to his work in the show Notes. We'll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe. Leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. What a day is brought to you by Acorns. Everyone has a money saving up for a down payment on a home, a car, a dream vacation, retirement, putting kids through college, etc. Acorns helps you grow the money goals you have today and the ones you'll have tomorrow. Acorns is the financial wellness app that helps you invest for your future, save for tomorrow, and spend smarter today. Acorns makes it easy to start doing more with your money. In fact, you can start automatically investing with just your spare change. You don't need to be a finance whiz. Acorns puts your money into an expert built portfolio to make sure you're investing wisely, not wildly. Plus, Acorns can support your money goals in life, a new car, a first home, investing for your kids, saving up for retirement, and so much more. Acorns even has a checking account that automatically invests for you and an emergency fund that grows your money. And it's all in one easy to use app. Sign up now and Acorns will boost your new account with a $5 bonus investment. Join the over 14 million all time customers who have already saved and invested over $25 billion with Acorns. Head to acorns.com wad or download the Acorns app to get started. Paid non client endorsement compensation provides incentive to positively promote Acorns tier 2 compensation provided investing involves risk. Acorns Advisors LLC and SEC Registered Investment Advisor. View important disclosures@acorns.com Wade.

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C (14:11)

This is not only the end of a war. This is the end of an age of terror and death and the beginning of the age of faith and hope and of God. It's the start of a grand concord and lasting harmony for Israel and all the nations of what will soon be a truly magnificent region. I believe that so strongly. This is the historic dawn of a new Middle East.

A (14:42)

Trump, a man well known for saying things like grand concord and lasting harmony, zigzagged across the Middle east region on Monday. During the trip, he spent time in Israel, where he spoke to the Knesset and was greeted by Israeli lawmakers who chanted his name, some wearing familiar red baseball caps that said, quote, trump the peace president.

C (15:01)

I've always stood for the people of this community and I always will. I'll always be with you. I'm always going to be with you. I guess maybe something could happen to change my mind. Somebody that's really stupid gets into office and wants to do really bad things, but that's about it. And we don't think we're going to have that happen.

A (15:19)

You can always tell when he abandons the pre written remarks, can't you? Trump also met with the families of some of the newly released Israeli hostages as people across the region welcomed their loved ones back home. Massive crowds gathered to celebrate as 20 living Israeli and almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners returned home Monday morning. The remains of four deceased hostages were also released to Israel and the last 24 are expected to be returned soon. Trump then met with world leaders in Egypt to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire. Negotiations remain shaky as authorities debate whether Hamas will disarm and who will govern Gaza. They're also weighing the possibility of Palestinian statehood, and they're debating how to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which has been largely reduced to rubble. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators remain deeply divided on these points, and solutions could take years to implement. The Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday in a case that could roll back a core provision of the Voting Rights Act. You know, that little act designed to protect the voting power of racial minorities. Lawyers from Louisiana and the Trump administration will argue that race shouldn't be considered in redistricting. If they win, one of Louisiana's majority black congressional districts would be erased. The case started when black voters and civil rights groups fought a congressional map that left just one majority black district in a state that is one third black. They won their case in lower courts, and later the state even added a second majority black district when the Supreme Court backed a similar case in Alabama in 2023. But now a group of white voters, the state of Louisiana and the Trump administration all argue that the court shouldn't use race to design districts at all, saying that intentionally creating minority districts is not constitutional. The case could have huge implications on minority voting rights, obviously, but it also has the potential to rework who controls Congress next year. Remember, this case comes while Trump urged Texas and other red states to redesign their districts in the run up to the 2026 midterm elections. If Southern states suddenly feel no need to protect minority districts, especially ones controlled by Democrats, there's a huge opportunity for Republicans, maybe to the tune of 19 more seats in the House of Representatives. Chief Justice John Roberts has had a vendetta against race based redistricting since he worked in Ronald Reagan's Justice Department. But don't worry, I'm sure It'll all be fine. The Supreme Court is non partisan, remember? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Washington this week with one goal. Convince the Trump administration that defending his country is still worth it. Zelenskyy's making his pitch for more long range weapon systems, specifically Tomahawk cruise missiles. Given that their range is more than 1,500 miles, Ukraine could use the weapons to strike deep inside Russia. This would help the country withstand a brutal Russian winter offensive and protect Ukraine's electricity and gas networks, which have faced relentless Russian bombardment aimed at eroding public morale. Here's Trump on Air Force One on whether he'd supply said missiles.

C (18:20)

Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don't think so. I think I might speak to Russia about that. In all fairness, I told that to President Zelensky because Tomahawks are a new step of aggression.

A (18:34)

Of course, Trump won't act without speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin first. It's called chain of command. In all seriousness, Moscow has expressed, quote, extreme concern over the US Potentially providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, implying their deployment could seriously damage relations between Moscow and Washington. But who knows? With Trump still sulking over his Nobel Peace Prize snub, maybe he's posturing for 2026. A slew of media companies are refusing to sign a statement acknowledging new restrictions on journalists at the Pentagon. The rules stop reporters from gathering info the Defense Department does not explicitly authorize. And the Pentagon Press association, which represents journalists, said last week that the rules limit where reporters can go without an official escort and convey an unprecedented message of intimidation. News organizations that don't sign by today must turn in their media credentials. Legacy publications like the Associated Press, cnn, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal said they won't sign. Interesting to note Trump friendly companies, Newsmax and the Washington Times also refused. The Washington Post's executive editor Matt Murray said in a statement Monday, quote, the proposed restrictions undercut First Amendment protections by placing unnecessary constraints on gathering and publishing information. And what does Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have to say to this constitutional finger wagging? Well, he's on Twitter using emojis to wave goodbye to outlets refusing to capitulate. He also explained the department's, quote, press credentialing for dummies. He said access to the Pentagon is a privilege and that the new rules mean the press can no longer wander freely there or, quote, solicit criminal acts. And that's the news. One more thing, Racism. It's bad. But on Elon Musk's Twitter it is mind bendingly profitable and so is hardcore right wing content. Especially since Elon bought Twitter in 2022 and introduce a system to pay people for the views they get on their tweets in 2023. The more extreme the content, the more people click on it and people absolutely click on the wildly racist shit you'll see on Twitter right now. And so it shouldn't really be surprising that the people making right wing content that's also often super racist aren't always deeply committed American patriots or even white nationalists. Actually, a lot of times those accounts are run by people who aren't American, aren't white, and aren't located in the United States at all. Take for example an account on Twitter called Inevitable west, which currently has more than 330,000 followers on the platform. And yes, Twitter addicts, as you already guessed, this account uses an AI generated creek statue as its profile picture. Inevitable West's Twitter bio reads as defender of Western values and culture, Jesus Christ is king covering Europe and the US but earlier this year Inevitable west was exposed as being run by Saurabh Chandrakar, a notorious scammer who was being held under house arrest in Dubai for his role in a complex money laundering scheme centered around a gambling app. Has he stopped tweeting right wing nonsense? Of course not. And our friend Chandrakar is far from alone. Another white nationalist right wing bullshit slop account on Twitter Radio Genoa, which has more than a million followers and has gotten support from Elon. It's being run by a Cambodian man living in Italy. The Radio Europe account, which posted endless anti immigrant white nationalist rage bait, was exposed last year by a Swedish news outlet to be run by a Turkish couple living in Dubai. Time after time, the most racist right wing slop accounts on Twitter are run by people living in and representative of the same countries. Those accounts constantly denigrated. All of these accounts work in basically the same way, using Twitter's algorithm to bring in thousands of dollars. For example, they'll post so called engagement bait, like using a photo of an interracial couple or a black person doing pretty much anything ever with text reading. What do you think or thoughts? The bait lures in people who interact with the post in any way, even if they're saying why would anyone have issues with an interracial couple, A process called engagement farming. And because America has the largest audience on Twitter, a lot of the bait is centered on American politics and of course American racism. I know this seems like some minor bullshit. But if you spend a lot of time on any social media platform like Twitter, you slowly start to get warped by it. And with the rise of weirdo racist engagement bait accounts that get thousands of followers on a daily basis, I can't help but feel that users are being exposed to more hardcore racism than they'd ever experience in any other space. And what gets me most of all is that it's not even real racism. It's racism for profit. Because I'm going to guess that Saurabh Chandrakar doesn't care much about race relations in the United States or the horrifying results of rising racial tensions. He's getting his payout from Twitter one way or another. Before we go, exciting news Crooked Media Reads is releasing our next book on January 27, 2026. It's called hated by all the Right Tucker Carlson and the Unraveling of the Conservative Mind by one of our favorite political journalists, New York Times Magazine writer Jason Zengerly. The title comes directly from Tucker himself. When he visited Hungary in 2021, he praised Viktor Orban for being hated by all the right people. For Carlson, being hated isn't an accident, it's the point. Why a book about Tucker Carlson? Because the key to understanding the Trump age is understanding how we as a society stopped seeking truth and started seeking outrage. And nobody shaped that shift more than Tucker. We just locked the COVID art. So check it out and pre order your copy of Hated by All the right people@crooked.com books. That's all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, contemplate how FBI Director Kash Patel's source on Antifa is Glenn Beck. And tell your friends to listen. And if you're into reading, not just about how according to the right wing media mogul, Patel sent FBI agents to his house last week to ask Beck about his research on Antifa. Like me, what a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe@crooked.com subscribe I'm Jane Coston and honestly, this is the best news Antifa has gotten in months. What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It's recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Foer and Chris Allport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Ali, Gina Pollack, and Caitlin Plummer. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our senior vice president of news and politics is Adrienne Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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Oh, hey.

B (26:21)

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This Supreme Court term kicks off with no shortage of chaos on the docket. In October alone, the justices will weigh whether cops can break into your home without a warrant, whether bans on conversion therapy for LGBTQ kids count as censorship, and whether states can gerrymander or must gerrymander majority black districts. It's a term packed with questions that cut to the heart of free speech, voting rights, and the power of the police. And on strict scrutiny, we're here to cut through the noise with a carefully honed balance of legal expertise and plenty of smack talk. New episodes drop every Monday. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.