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- [00:03]
A
It's absolutely central control, and it definitely shafts the citizen. The days of imperial America as the global hegemon will be drawing to a close. There's much more to come in this fourth turning.
- [00:15]
B
You don't really see a world where conflicts, little hotspots around the world doesn't escalate.
- [00:20]
A
It's going to get worse before it gets better. We can print all the treasuries and dollars we want, but at some point, we're going to run out of the supplies. The world is changing really fast. It's going to be almost unrecognizable. I'm sorry, but you're not going to. You're going to be the creative destruction. During times like this when people are desperate, you have to do something or they will do something to you.
- [00:40]
B
We have a fragmenting of the world, multipolar world, like a money that doesn't require trust seems like it should do very well in that situation.
- [00:47]
A
So those of us who understand bitcoin would say it's basically built for this. You can't stop a technology or an idea whose time has come.
- [00:57]
B
Good to see you again, mate. You. You are one of my favorite people to have on the show. I think this is the fourth time we've recorded, and the world's pretty crazy right now. And one of the most interesting things that I've been watching is that March was, I think, gold's worst year, sorry, worst month since 2013. Meanwhile, since this Iran conflict started, bitcoin's been pretty good. It's sort of sideways, a little bit up. And now there's talk of people using bitcoin to cross the straight of Hormuz, which seems like there's a ton of signal in that, But I don't know if it's just getting over it. Excited as a bitcoiner, how do you take that all in?
- [01:35]
A
So, first of all, thanks for having me back on the show, Danny. I love talking with you. And so it's fun to be back here with you, man. So what do we say about that? So I don't put a lot of stock into either of those moves in the short term. And that's because basically, as far as the technicals, the stuff that I look at as a fund manager, gold had become pretty overbought at that point, and it was just kind of ready for a correction. It ran out of buyers for a while. Everybody was so excited about gold and all the other precious metals, silver, platinum, palladium, those kind of things, and it just needed a break. So I think a lot of this was just kind of a healthy pullback. And then I would actually say, much to the chagrin of bitcoiners, that it was probably just, you know, bitcoin was due for a bounce after being very oversold. I still think we're just kind of in the middle of a typical bitcoin drawdown, a bear market for bitcoin. This is kind of what happens when the economy is hurting and when liquidity is tightening up a little and we can get into things like that. About the fact that the dollar has been strengthening, though it recently broke. You know, it's April 14th when we're recording this, so several days ago the dollar basically broke and has been heading lower. That generally is good for risk assets and generally good for bitcoin. So we've been seeing, I think, kind of a reflexive response in that way. I will say, since we're talking about bitcoin quickly, that, you know, since October, and I'm a momentum guy, so since October, bitcoin has been fighting against the moving average and it's been losing. So in late October it tried a few times to cross and hold above the 100 day moving average and then got rejected and went way down. And then, let's see, probably, you know what, let me just look so I can make sure I'm saying factual things. So January 14th and 15th, it fought again with it. It crossed the 100 day moving average, simple moving average, which was at that point about 97,000, and then got soundly rejected again. And that's when it started the next leg of the bear market down where it went all the way until February 5th to a low of at least according to my charts, about 60, no, 59,000 on the 6th. So that was painful. And then we've been clawing our way back and then ironically, as we are recording this today, it just today for the first time since all the way back in January, mid January today it crossed, went above the hundred day moving average, which is sitting at about 75,000 right now. But it looks like it's going to close just below it again. So, you know, I don't like to be cynical, but I think until the pattern changes, it's probably going to continue. I hope it holds above the 100 day moving average. But this would be at least based on the last six months of history, this would be a great place for it to get rejected again. I just kind of think it has one more leg lower before it's officially the bott. But you know, who knows? I don't, I don't. You know, I try to get out of the prediction prediction business, the price prediction business. But when, when liquidity isn't doing great, when there's the uncertainty of war, things like that, when, when the dollar has been strengthening, when oil's been high, those kind of things hold the price down now. So. So all of that said, I would not be surprised if we have one more leg lower. But I do what the price says right. So, so if we happen to take the 100 day moving average and then start to form a very solid base because I in a very like that, that bottoming pattern right now, these bottoming patterns for bitcoin can be like soul crushing as most people know. Like in 2022, a lot of people thought it was over in about June of 2022 and we chopped around. I think we went up in maybe August or something and then crashed back down again in November and December and then it finally started again. So if I, you know, if I had to say, I'd say we're probably still due for several months of this like painful chop where it just can't gain any traction. But who knows, based on the way I manage the fund is all just momentum based. If we continue to gather momentum over the short term and the medium term and then finally long term momentum, that would be extremely bullish. So that's my general take on bitcoin.
- [05:46]
B
Okay. I'm not really a chart guy, so I've got two questions in that. One is why is the 100 day moving average so important? And then also if we do go lower, are you saying you think we'll go lower from here back to 60s or do you think we'll actually go to a new low for this cycle?
- [06:02]
A
I'm actually hoping we hit a new low. To answer your second question first, I said hey to the 58K gang. I think we could have one more time where we dip down into the 50 thousands. I hope so as just a kind of a long term saver in bitcoin. The lower the better as far as I'm concerned. I know a lot of people just want to make money and trade it to get rich in the short term. But for those of us who are just in it because it truly is better money for a better world. Don't really care. I hope it goes lower. So I'm hoping for one more trip down sub 60k. I hope we can say hi to the 58k gang one more time. The 100 day moving average to answer that question, you know, I don't know, for whatever reason and just as a guy who. I've been watching these charts for, you know, over a decade now and just kind of seeing how prices move during different secular movements, whether it's a bear market or a bull market or a crab market, different asset classes tend to fiddle around with different moving averages. And that tends to be their bane or their boon. So it's either their ceiling or it's their support. Right now, bitcoin has just sort of chosen the 100 day moving average. There's no magical reason to it, there's no explanation for it that I know of at least. But I think what, what traders do is they're like me and they see like, oh, hey, it keeps getting. It keeps trying to cross the 100 day moving average and then getting rejected there. So this would probably be a good time to put on shorts or to take profits. From a trading perspective, I think that's what people think. And then they tend to, because they believe it and they act on it, then it tends to perpetuate the story and then it turns it into a reality. So for what it's worth, don't put too much into it. Most listeners should just simply be stacking stats and don't worry about any of this nonsense.
- [07:40]
B
Exactly. And that's why 58k gang sounds great to me. I'll definitely be stacking down there. Because even at this price, it's funny how quickly your perspective changes on Bitcoin. That 74k or 70k, whatever we're at today feels like value to me. These are areas where I'm more than willing to buy. Whereas not very long ago this was unimaginable. But what do you think happens through this year then? If you think obviously one leg lower potentially. But do you think we can have a strong end to 2026 or do you think we're in a typical bear market right now?
- [08:13]
A
Well, both. So I think we're in a typical bear market right now, but I think the year is going to finish strong based on the things that I'm looking at. So several things. Usually the second year of the presidential cycle, which we're in, is usually bad for stocks, bad for risk assets, tends to not be very good for bitcoin as well. I think we all remember 20 the last time this happened, when liquidity tends to roll over and weaken, that tends to not be very good for risk assets, tends to not be very good for bitcoin. That's kind of where we're at again right here. So I'm generally bearish for now and mostly bearish just because the charts have been bearish. And so I don't try to tell the price what to do. I just sort of watch what it does and respond accordingly. To me, it makes the most sense that we kind of have just several weeks to months of choppiness. Maybe we have a couple false starts where everybody gets exc and then we get all disappointed again. But I would say by Q4, the fourth quarter, somewhere around the midterm elections here in the US that usually tends to reignite some bullishness. And just based on cyclical patterns, I would be surprised if we didn't have kind of a bullish end to the year after sort of a disappointing a half to three quarters of a year leading up to that. So I'm not bullish for now, but I plan on being bullish as the year ends.
- [09:33]
B
And what drives that. Is that going to be a bitcoin specific thing or do you think markets more generally will be good through the end of the year?
- [09:41]
A
So I think it's a lot of things. It's psychology. So again, the US Tends to drive the global economy so far because we still are the financial center for now in the world. So as optimism starts to rise again, so maybe during reelections, usually the other team gets very excited and they tend to get a lot of their players in, whether it's Congress or the Senate or the House or whatever or governorship, those kind of things happen. So that sort of creates a renewed optimism that the country is going to move back in the right direction. It's also the start of the new fiscal year for the US Starting in October. And so we get kind of new money, gets put to work. That's a reason to be optimistic. And then just as you come into a new year every year, it tends to be the same that from October, usually through April, that seasonality, it just tends to be more bullish in general. So from, you know, sell in May and go away, you've heard that before. Usually from May to the end of September, it tends to be kind of weak for risk assets, even a little weak for bitcoin. But then you see more strength as you go into those time periods. So that's generally, you know, none of that. It doesn't have to do any of that. But based on past precedent, that's generally what happens for risk assets and what can happen for Bitcoin as well.
- [10:57]
B
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- [14:26]
A
Sure. So three burners. So the three things I focus on mostly as a macro investor are one is what is liquidity doing? So basically, how much liquidity is there in the system? I like to actually affectionately call it the liquidity blob. So how big is the blob? Is it growing or is it shrinking? And then very importantly, is the blob centered over the government or is it moving towards the markets, towards the people? And that has a huge impact. So one example of that moving from the people to the government is during tax season. So if a lot. So say there's been a very bullish, like a bull market. Lots of people owe taxes in America. What they do is they pay taxes around April. And that liquidity blob goes from the people from their savings account back to the government to the coffers of the Treasury General account. And then there are times where the government is spending a lot of money. So a lot of fiscal stimulus or monetary stimulus from central banks, those can enlarge the liquidity blob and they can move the blob over to the people. So I watch that very closely and you can sort of predict what different asset classes are going to do. And based on those sorts of things, different asset classes generally do well, they'll follow that over time. They may not over the short term. It doesn't predict short term price movements, but you can see secular trends like that. So why does that matter right now? So the Trump administration, right, they are absolutely in war footing right now as far as they're concerned. We're basically. And I actually put a poll out. I'm not on Nasser very often anymore, but I threw a poll out and I said we're In World War Three, yes or no. And 55 so far, 55% of people say yes. We're actually in World War III right now. And so 45% of people think that the 55% are crazy. Like, what are you, what are you even talking about? So that's, that's a whole, whole nother discussion, I'm sure. Point being?
- [16:16]
B
Cause I want to know your take on it.
- [16:18]
A
Yeah, okay. Okay. Well, yeah, let's talk about this first. So the Trump administration is absolutely in wartime mentality. They keep talking about the Manhattan Project. They keep talking about their adversary. You know, they picked a fight out of nowhere, it seems, with Iran. Why are we doing that? Calling, you know, China our primary adversary. And they're trying to get America behind them, and they're spending gobs and gobs of money and they're asking for more and more gobs and gobs of money, which this liquidity blob, it's going to greatly expand the liquidity blob. So despite the first year of Trump where they talked about Doge, right, They're going to do austerity, they're going to save the economy. And Elon was all psyched about that. That's just gone. There's no chance that that happens at this point. Now we're just all about, we are going to spend like crazy. We're going to grow the economy, and we're going to do that by centering all of our focus on building out our infrastructure. We want to build out our, you know, energy infrastructure, our manufacturing capabilities, mostly our military industrial complex, our rare earth capabilities. We're going to try to grow all of that here in America. So everything is made in America as we become a more multipolar nation. And they're doing everything they can. And you know, Trump in the way he does, he moves super fast so that Congress can't keep up with them and the judges can't keep up with them. And then he'll, he'll deal with it. Later if they slap it down. But for now, that's how fast they're moving. And I think they're doing that on purpose. They're moving fast and breaking things and they'll deal with the repercussions later. But they're trying to get the economy revved up again in the US and then I think he's basically bad mouthing and cajoling Europe and the other Western allies to get them to do the same thing, saying like, hey, we don't, we don't have your back anymore. You don't have our back, so we don't have your back. You're going to have to start spending seriously on military. And again, that has crazy repercussions that we can talk about. But all of this said and what they're going to do and what they're asking Congress is we want to greatly expand our military budget and they're being very generous in their military budget with what they're spending it on. And it's all of those things I mentioned where they're trying to bring back energy production, manufacturing, the military industrial complex, the whole war machine all back here to the US they're trying to drum up support and talk about the Manhattan Project. They're talking about how great World War II is and let's make America great. Remember how we all banded together and we built all these awesome things and we defeated the enemies. Like that's what we need to do here. Because of that, it's actually hard for the economy to do poorly when that happens. And I'll fend off a question you're probably going to ask somewhere down the road is are we headed to recession? And I would say absolutely not. When you have that much fiscal spending and you have this much boom on the economy growing, you just can't have a recession. Almost by definition when the government is just funneling all of this money and all of its energy into the economy, you just don't get a recession. You can't have negative GDP growth when that happens. So unless we get nuked or something crazy like that totally, you know, black swan type event or a massive cyber security thing and our Internet shuts down for, for weeks and months, then yes, that, that would, that would cause us to fall into a recession. But if that does not happen, I actually am pretty bullish on the economy in general. And this comes full circle to the three burners. So burner number one is liquidity. The liquidity blob is trying to grow very hard and the government is trying to push it out into the real economy. I love that because in the past what they did is they, they did the liquidity through the Fed, the Federal Reserve, central banks, they created this money and they basically propped up assets. So stocks went high, bitcoin went high, crypto nonsense went high. But that didn't really help the general economy. This whole thing of getting the economy moving and funneling all their energy and money into that is actually bullish for the economy in general. And it used to be super bullish for blue collar workers and for the middle class. But unfortunately that's also changing too. You know, with AI, with robotics, we're having this sort of jobless recovery in manufacturing. And I think that's actually going to accelerate in the coming months and the coming years. Still trying to stay on your three burner thing. So liquidity number two is basically manufacturing. So the economy that I'm talking about, I think we, I'm sure we talked about this on our past episodes, our recent episodes. I follow the ISM manufacturing PMI very closely. That's basically. Is the manufacturing sector in America growing or is it contracting? Is it bullish or is it like in a recession? From 2022 through basically this year, early 2026, it's mostly been in contraction. It's basically never been in contraction for that long since World War II. It's unprecedented. It tried a couple times to blip up above and then something tanked it. Like the tariffs tanked it before and other types of things have tanked it. When it tried to get above this time, it looks like it's for real. It's back above 50 and it looks like it's going to accelerate. I will say that a strong dollar, high interest rates and high oil prices tend to hurt the economy. They hurt manufacturing because it raises the prices, it raises the cost of capital, it raises the, you know, so the Producer Price index, the ppi, the costs of goods that manufacturers have to pay for to create their products, if those are all rising, obviously that hurts the margins of businesses and it can actually hurt the. But what we've just seen the last couple days is oil's coming down, the dollar just broke again, rates are coming down again. So that's again, bullish for the economy. So that's burner number two. This is the world's longest answer. And then burner number three is liquidity. So basically, when you see your neighbor making money in the stocks and you see somebody making a lot of money in crypto, you want to make up for lost time. So people start adding leverage. So when leverage starts coming back into the system in major ways, that tends to push bull markets. It can actually, you can have leverage long liquidation cascades on the downside. So in bear markets, people can get wiped out. But in the upside, as people start applying leverage, it tends to push asset prices higher and higher. And that's when you get those blow off peaks, which we didn't have in bitcoin this year. I couldn't help but notice we never got that blow off top. But now instead we're just getting after kind of a sad bull market ending in October. We've just been coming down since then. So. So. Oh, and then one last thing that's encouraging and just while I'm thinking about it, because it's all interrelated, one thing that's encouraging is not just we're not seeing stimulus just from the government, we're seeing bank lending coming back to the US So that's actually really encouraging. So when regular people or businesses just need money, they go and borrow money from banks. And if banks are bullish on the economy in general and they believe in what these people or these businesses are doing, they'll loan them money. So right now we're seeing large banks are making a lot of loans. And that's come. It wasn't a, basically a real bear market up until like mid 2023. And it's been accelerating. Now small banks are also accelerating, though at a slower pace. But in general we're seeing bank lending again. That also increases the liquidity blob because as we know, when banks lend, they're basically just creating dollars out of thin air that increases the size of the liquidity blob and that is all moving into the economy. So that's very healthy. So all of those signs are actually very healthy for the economy in general.
- [23:31]
B
So I mean, we first talked about that was a lot. I've got so many questions. But we, we talked about this maybe nine months ago and probably the strongest call that you made out of that was that you did think manufacturing was going to come back in a real way. And I think the last three months have been positive and it's looking really good there. Obviously there's still the risk of high rates, high oil, high dollar price that could impact that. But is that the most bullish thing you're seeing right now?
- [23:58]
A
That's the most encouraging thing I'm seeing. So you wouldn't think that as a fund manager, you'd think I'd just want stock prices to go up and Bitcoin to go up. But I want to see our economy be healthy again because it's been so unhealthy and sick. We had that it was actually heading into a depression as Covid hit. And then Covid just, you know, thumped. It just crushed the whole world. And all the decisions the government's made, shutting down all businesses around the world, which I think was a crazy decision. And then they stimulated like crazy fiscally and monetarily and caused that massive inflation. So asset prices spiked and then also inflation ended up spiking in 2022. The markets have literally just been trying to recover from that assault basically for the last four years or so. So what I see now are signs of the market actually recovering again, that the cycle's finally coming back, that manufacturing is finally coming back. And that's good. We want to see, and not just in America, we want to see all countries start to increase. Now China has its own story. They've been on their own treadmill for quite a while. But the rest of the world basically, especially the rest of the Western world, has been stuck in this malaise basically since COVID And I would like to see healthy growth. So I am bullish on that. And I'm bullish because, you know, from, from a, from a sound money standpoint, from a Bitcoin and gold standpoint, they tend to do well in these periods. So, and, and these types of periods, what you see is inflation runs hotter because you get this structural inflation, like as we try to bring back manufacturing to all of our countries and build up military and do all this stuff. It's expensive and somebody has to pay for that. Right? And so the way the governments do it is they borrow and they borrow and they borrow and inflation runs kind of hotter and hotter. Not crazy hot. I'm not saying like out of control inflation, but higher inflation than we're used to. And then what they try to do is they try to manufacture lower borrowing rates. And so that's called yield curve control. That's something I think is going to be coming here in the next couple of years and probably coming to most Western nations where they're just going to have to borrow a crazy amount of money, where all of the spending that they're doing is going to cause a rise in inflation. And if they can hold down rates, basically the bondholders get shafted, they're losing their purchasing power, and they're actually losing money in real terms. It's good for the government because they can actually inflate their debt away. That's where that term comes from over time. And it kind of feels good because the economy can sort of run hot. And then as long as people are in a good enough mood and not trying to overthrow the government, it actually can sort of work well for everybody. So that's what I think is probably going to come unless we get, get into, unless World War 3 gets really hot, if that's what's happening. That's. And that's a whole different story. So. So war, wars are tough to predict what's going to happen because you don't know who's going to win or lose and you don't know who's going to attack whom. But man, I'm kind of going down a bunch of rabbit holes too. So I'll try to stop. Just stop me anytime.
- [26:54]
B
I'm loving it. I've got honestly about a thousand questions for you at the moment. But let's talk about the yield curve control first, because you just brought that up because they've tried that in Japan. It worked for a long time until it didn't. Is that not a real negative and just more sort of centralized control over the monetary system if we get that?
- [27:11]
A
Yeah, so it is, it's absolutely central control and it definitely shafts the citizens. So the last time we did that in earnest in the US was after World War II. We had these massive debts, but after World War II people were kind of enthusiastic, right? We're like, hey, we won, we won, we won the war and we don't have to rebuild like Europe has to rebuild. It's probably going to work out pretty well for us in general. And so Americans didn't like it, but they were kind of okay with it. They're like, I guess I can see why we're doing this. Like we have to pay off these debts now. At least we won the war. At least we're in a way better spot than Japan and Europe is. So that's okay. This time around it's very different. And I would argue, by the way, that we're already starting to do some yield curve control here. The treasury is already doing a kind of Operation Twist. They're already not issuing as many bonds on the long end and they're issuing way more T bills. All of that, all of these little things they're doing is they're sort kind of quietly behind the scenes keeping the rates down on the long end of the spectrum, especially the 10 year. Scott Besant said early on watch the 10 year yield. And I believe that he's just been focused like a hawk on the 10 year yield and they're doing little tiny tricks to keep that rate down. Right. So if you don't keep issuing a ton of 10 year yields, then you artificially suppress this. If you're keeping the supply down, then even if there's not much demand, that'll keep the prices down in general. So they're doing things like that, issuing a lot of T bills, short end kind of stuff. And all of this stuff is, I would say, a form of yield curve control. Already when they officially announce it, that will be a much more traumatic thing.
- [28:46]
B
Do you think they will actually officially announce it and call it yield curve control?
- [28:51]
A
I think if we get into, I think if the hot war increases over the coming years, which I think it will, I think we'll be forced to do that. And I think they're going to try to get America on board with, look, we just need to do this. You know, they'll say things like, we can't let the bond market spin out of control. We have to borrow this for this great cause of this war or whatever thing we're fighting. So let's all just kind of get on board with this. And I do think, by the way, this is a huge reason why Besant and the Trump administration in general is so supportive of stablecoins. I think what they want to do is let the world embrace tether and USDC and in like you can all have that. And then what they do then is they issue all of this debt, these, these short term T bills and they can inflate away their debt to the world. So every one, the world who's holding dollars, even in the form of USDC or USDT or whatever stablecoin they want to hold, they're going to get inflated away. It's over the short term, so you definitely don't notice, but they are still getting inflated away. And I think that's why our government is pushing stablecoins so much.
- [29:56]
B
But if we get true yield curve control, that's the government essentially either buying or selling its own bonds to keep it at like a target rate. Right. So is that just a, is that the big print? Essentially, yes.
- [30:09]
A
Yeah. So that's when the Larry Lippard big print comes into play. So I don't think we're super close to that unless we have a major calamity in the near term that's not going to happen. But maybe if the war escalates at some point and I think, by the way, I'll just answer your question right now, yes, I think we're in World War iii. I think it's basically the seeds were sown in the great financial crisis in 2008, 2009, I think, think China realized that this is a rotten deal, the U.S. dollar financial system. So they, in 2014 started doing tangible things like they quit buying U.S. treasuries actively and they started stockpiling things, mainly rare earths, you know, plus oil, plus coal. They, they've ramped up all of their production of everything. They are the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and the energy powerhouse of the world now, not unlike America back in the 1930s, they've been kind of mentally preparing for this. And then Russia, when we cut them off from their treasuries, when they invaded Ukraine, they're like, okay, we're in. No more of this nonsense of us being on the dollar based, you know, the petrodollar system. So they've been preparing since then and then all of these little proxy wars. At least for me, as a guy who studies history and economic history, this is just like the 1930s to me. It's just like when, you know, Japan invaded China in the 30s, 30s, and you know, Germany invaded Poland in the late 30s. And then here in America, we think World War II didn't start until Pearl harbor in 1941, but it had been going on long before that, depending on where you live. And so I just think this is the same thing. And to me, that what will officially mark the start of World War iii, when it's like, okay, this is for real, is when China officially gets involved and we're not there yet. And I pray that it doesn't happen, but I think it will probably happen. And I think that will be when it's like, okay, this is for real. Like the whole world is now officially at war and this is going to get ugly.
- [32:00]
B
Okay, so World War Three, that's scary. What do you think it looks like if this is World War Three? Because we obviously have had the proxy war with Russia and Ukraine. This is not a proxy war. The US and Iran, but it's like war from a distance. There's no troops on the ground. How does this escalate from here?
- [32:19]
A
So first, so it's April 14th, so things change by the day. So I like to be clear about this. Right now where we are is we have put a blockade on the Persian Gulf, right on the Strait of Hormuz. And we say we're clearing the mines so that the nations can all freely trade oil. I think that that's and this is going to sound like a conspiracy, but I think what we're doing is we're getting ready for phase two of this war. We have, I think, three aircraft carriers in the. In the area. Lots of Marines are either there or almost in the Persian Gulf area. We've got paratroopers in place. I believe France has an aircraft carrier close by. Even though they're denying that they're helping in any way. I think we're going to make a play for the islands in the Persian Gulf and especially for Carg island, which is like the main hub, the control center for Iran's oil. I think 90% of their oil goes through Kharg Island. I've noticed we've bombed Carg island twice, US And I believe Israel jointly. And we haven't destroyed any of the oil facilities. We've only destroyed basically their defenses and their Runway. I will be surprised if within the next week, so let's say by, you know, Wednesday of next week, which would be April 22nd, I will be very surprised if the US doesn't have a presence on Karg island, or at least has not tried to have a presence on Carg Island. I think we will have troops on the ground, and I think it will come to light that more nations are supporting the U.S. than are currently admitting that they're supporting the U.S. the U.S. so that's conspiracy theory enough, but I think that the plan is to kick the hornet's nest here in the Persian Gulf to bring Europe in to form a coalition and basically control the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz going forward. I think that eventually, years from now, the US Will have pulled back out of the Persian Gulf, pulled back even from the first island chain, which is fencing in China right now, which we've been doing basically since World War II, also kind of the 70s and 80s where it got more real. And we're focusing on the Western Hemisphere. And I'm not getting this from just being a crazy guy. I'm reading the military policy of the United States government, and this is basically what they're saying. They're acknowledging that Europe is the former center of everything, of the economy and of the military strength, and they are no longer the center. It was the US and they're basically admitting it's now China and Southeast Asia. And I think what they're trying to do is pull back but keep their foot in the door, because for the next hundred years, that's where the center of commerce of the economy is going to be. And we want to keep our relations in the new multipolar world. So I think we're going to focus in the US on the Western hemisphere, but keep our foot in the door through the Persian Gulf and through kind of, you know, the Taiwan region with what's going to come over the next decade. Decades.
- [35:24]
B
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- [38:05]
A
So if we have.
- [38:06]
B
So.
- [38:06]
A
So yes, that's part of it. So it's not lost on me that Trump and Xi are supposed to meet in mid March, May. We have almost no leverage over China right now. Right. And most people know that literally our whole military is built on Chinese products. Right now they have the huge ace on their sleeve, which is control of rare earths, and they've been cutting the US off of most of that. Anything military grade. They've been cutting off Japan as well, and other Western allies. I think from the US Perspective, or from Trump's perspective, we think, look, if we can sort of have the control, because one thing China doesn't do well is produce its own oil. They have to import, and they have, by the way, imported an amazingly huge amount of oil. So they have huge reserves. But at some point that could be an issue for them. So I think from Trump's perspective, he thinks a way to at least match them in negotiating ability is, one, we have a very powerful military, obviously, still, and two, if we can sort of cut off their easy access to oil, that would be a very strong card. So maybe we trade easy access to oil for some of the rare earth earths. It's a really interesting. You know, I'm sure you read Luke Grohman and I know you've probably had him on your show. I agree with his take in general, I think it's a really weird situation to be in where we're basically begging China for rare earths to build weapons that we would use against China. It's just so awkward. And, and, but that's the situation we're in right now. So I think they're trying to do what they can do to gain some type of leverage over the coming months. And I do think, think that we don't really care about control over the Strait of Hormuz. I would say in the U.S. i think part of us. So we, we want Kharg island, which is where 90% of the oil flows through currently. If we can control that, we can basically control Iran sort of politically. So, basically, if you don't open the Strait of Hormuz for our allies, we're just going to shut you off from, from your profits from Cargill Island. And, you know, a guy who's done really good work on this is a guy named Charlie Garcia. He has a substack, and I would recommend anybody who hasn't read him to go and read him. He's done a good job. He calls Carg island like the thermostat. You can turn it down and you can put a ton of pressure on Iran. If they're not doing what we want them to do, you don't even need a regime change. You can kind of pressure them to do stuff financially. And if you cut them off from all from, I think their oil revenue is about 50% of their country's revenue per year. So if you can basically shut that down to zero through controlling oil, this thermostat called Carg island, you can make them do a lot of things diplomatically, even without a regime change, and then you can dial it up as they become more compliant over the long term, then you turn up their access, and they gain much more profits from that. So I think that's the play that the Trump administration is doing right now, but we'll find out in the coming weeks, I think.
- [40:54]
B
Do you think this potentially escalates to being a war between the, Like, a direct war between the US And China? Because I'm sure you saw the conference, press conference that Trump did where he was talking about the big one and obviously referring to China. And in the past, we've spoken about a potential hotspot with Taiwan, China trying to take Taiwan back. Do you think that is on the cards?
- [41:17]
A
I've spent a ton of time thinking about this, and I think that part of the reason why we are pulling back so we have all these commitments, especially to the first island chain nations, right? So South Korea, Japan, down to the Philippines, Southeast Asia, that whole area, we've kind of sworn to protect them, especially Taiwan, in the face of Chinese aggression. I personally think, and this is not a popular view that we have realized it would be very difficult for us to protect Taiwan from China and keep China penned in as we've fenced them in and call it what it is, we've been fencing them in for many decades through that first island chain line of defense. I think we're pulling back and I think we're doing everything we can here in the US to get with. The whole reason Taiwan is important to us is semiconductors, right? The high end semiconductors. We are doing everything we can to build fabs. Whether it's Elon Musk or Taiwan semi here in the US or partnerships with Intel, Nvidia, all of these people, they're doing everything they can right now to ramp up production of high end semiconductors in the US as fast as possible. If that happens, then Taiwan suddenly isn't as important to us. And so I think if we could fast forward forward 10 years from now, 10 years from now, I think Taiwan and China will be much friendlier with each other and China will be free to travel into the Pacific Ocean, won't be fenced in anymore. Whether we come to war over that, I could see kind of a minor war where we're just like, both sides are like, look, we really don't want to just go at it with each other because we, we might just destroy the whole world. So let's sort of leave well enough alone. I still think there were some backseat non disclosed handshake deals, Trump and Putin and Xi, where it's like, we know we're moving multipolar, we're going to slowly pull back from everywhere. We're going to focus on the Western hemisphere. I think that's why they didn't make that big of a stink when we went in and took Maduro out of Venezuela. And they're not making that big a deal about it. Even though China's been investing for the last several decades into South America and Central America and Russia as well. I think they're letting us sort of take this area over, over and they're going to focus on the Eastern hemisphere. And it sounds like conspiracy theory, but I think if we can look back 10 years from now, that's what the world will look like.
- [43:43]
B
It's pretty scary. It's real fourth turning stuff. If this happens, if this does escalate even further. Everything we've said about how you expect the macro economy to play out, is that just thrown out the window then? Is that gone or does it just accelerate the same situation?
- [44:02]
A
It depends. So America is used to attacking people on the other side of the American military is used to attacking people on the other side of the world and not worrying about the homeland. I think if something happens where we actually are attacked here in the 48 states, the continental US that would be a whole different story. And one that nobody is really expecting. And I'm kind of expecting that in the next five years, some sort of Pearl harbor type event, but actually here on the continental United States, but we'll see. That's just a guess. That would definitely unify Americans in the war. And instead of fighting each other and having this little civil war that seems to be coming up a little bit right now and is very disturbing, and we're seeing civil wars kind of all around the world right now. That would be a way, sort of like 9, 11, or sort of like Pearl harbor. That would unify Americans to look outward if there's a massive war and if there's a lot of damage in the U.S. yeah, like, everything just goes out the window. But if we can manage to keep it contained where it's like, okay, that's all happening over there in the Persian Gulf primarily, and it's now Europe fighting over the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining control over it. And the US can pull back and get out of the bases there and start focusing on the Western Hemisphere and get out of Taiwan and pull back and start focusing on the Western Hemisphere. Then we could kind of get out of this without too much damage and the markets themselves might actually do okay. Like. And in fact, the end of world. Excuse me, the end of the Depression was basically once for us here in the U.S. world War II got underway in 1941. That's basically when the stock market bottomed in gold terms. And then US manufacturing and production started to really pick up. The economy really started to pick up. The government was just pouring tons and tons and tons of money into the economy. And that was very healthy from an economic perspective. And so I think we're going to have something similar this time around as well.
- [45:56]
B
It feels kind of wrong to ask about markets in this situation because it is such a bleak situation. But. But what do you think happens to bitcoin? Like, is bitcoin built for this? Essentially, like, we have a fragmenting of the world, multipolar world, like a Money that doesn't require trust seems like it should do very well in that situation.
- [46:16]
A
So those of us who understand bitcoin would say it's basically built for this, right? I mean, I think. And this goes back to what we talked about, whatever three months and nine months ago, when the last few times we've talked, basically we're in that sector where stocks and financialized assets have rolled over relative to gold. And now you want to own sound money and you want to own hard assets. For those of us who get bitcoin, it's the hardest money, it's the soundest money, and so it should technically do really well. But a couple things that give me pauses. One is bitcoin has only existed since 2009, so we have no idea. You know, I would have loved to have seen, well, how did it do in the 1970s. So that would have told me a lot. But obviously we can't say that. 2 Wall street is very, very heavily invested now in bitcoin. And as you've probably seen, and maybe your other guests have talked about this, it's basically tracking software stocks right now. So most people think of bitcoin like a software stock. That's very frustrating for me, you know, as a bitcoiner, like, come on, you guys, like, figure it out. Like, it's, it's. It's. It's better than gold. It's. And it's not just digital gold. It's so much better than gold. Gold was the best money for during, you know, thousands of years during the analog age. But bitcoin is clearly the best form of money for the world during the digital age. So if I had to bet, I would say it's probably going to do pretty well in this stage. So if we do get financial repression, if we get this massive liquidity blob and the government's just just pouring tons and tons of money into the, you know, manufacturing sector and the manufacturing base of the US that should be bullish in general for the price of bitcoin. But honestly, we don't know. We'll just have to. We'll have to wait and see.
- [47:52]
B
Wait and see mode. So at the very start of the show, I asked a question that I don't think you actually answered about bitco being used in the strait at the moment. So the Iranian government came out and said, yeah, I think you can pay in Chinese yuan stablecoins or bitcoin to actually go through the straight. That feels like a really big moment to me. But again, like, there's Always recency bias in this stuff. And I don't know if people are actually using bitcoin yet or if they are just using the Chinese yuan. But do you see that as a pivotal change?
- [48:23]
A
I think it's less of a big deal for bitcoin and more of a big deal for the end of the petrodollar system. And that's, like, what all of this is revolving around. So basically, are those two not kind
- [48:33]
B
of intrinsically linked, though? Like, if it's.
- [48:35]
A
They are, yes. So, yes. And it means that we're moving to a more multipolar world. And the fact that the US Isn't going after every country and especially isn't attacking China because of people are, you know, paying you on to get through the Strait of Hormuz, that means a lot as well. And I would have said 20 years ago, if somebody would have tried to pay Chinese yuan for oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz, we would have probably attacked China directly back then. But I think now what this shows is we respect them and their military and, you know, who they are as a nation. I don't. I don't think, even though we talk like. Even though Trump talks all the time like, we're the best, we have the strongest military, nobody's, you know, better than America, blah, blah, blah, I think that they do respect how far China has progressed, and I think they do realize that we're kind of in a bit of a. A bit of a pickle here, and we can't just go after China and try to shut that down. So I think we are intentionally. I don't know if allowing is the right word, but we see this happening, and we are not being aggressive because of that. And we are allowing oil to finally be traded in something other than the dollar. And that's a first, basically, since the early 70s. So that is very telling. So I think the yuan, I think it's being traded for gold as well. Directly or indirectly. Bitcoin. You know, it'd be really stupid for nations, especially for, like, smaller nations, rogue nations, to use bitcoin because the can track it and figure out who did it, and they can hunt them down. So everybody knows that. Like, it's, you know, it's. It's. It's not completely private unless they're using mixers. The government will find out who did it, and they'll be able to track them down. So there are better things to use than bitcoin if. If they want to be sneaky about
- [50:16]
B
it, bullish for Wasabi wallet, though.
- [50:19]
A
Yes.
- [50:21]
B
So a little earlier in the show, you said you think we're going to go through a period of like, let's take the war potential out. Because I think that kind of throws a spanner in the works for everything. But we're going to go through this period of living under height inflation. I want to know what you mean by high inflation. Are we talking in like 5%, 10%? Where does that kind of range fall?
- [50:41]
A
It depends what oil does predominantly. So. So if we just have structural inflation and when I say that, I mean if we are just bearing the costs of bringing manufacturing and energy production back to the US Building data centers, you know, ramping up rare earth capabilities, that all costs money. And it's money we don't have. We're already heavily indebted. We're already spending more on debt than we are on military. That's already a very bad sign. And also marks kind of the end of hegemonies too. I'm sure you've talked about that with other people.
- [51:10]
B
I don't know if I have talked about that. That's interesting.
- [51:12]
A
Oh, okay. Well, there's some dude who came up with that theory back in like the 1700s who noticed that countries that are global hegemons, once they start spending money higher amounts on their interest of their debt payments than they do on war on their military, that's when you. That kind of marks the beginning of the end of their global hegemony. And you can to go go back like all the way, like 1600, 1700s, all the way till today. That's happened over and over again. So it's not a good sign for the US it definitely shows that we have kind of peaked and we're on the decline.
- [51:43]
B
I hope not just on a gut check. That seems right. I can totally believe that.
- [51:47]
A
Right. Yeah. Of course, if you're spending more, you can like for any individual, if you see them just being drowning in their debt payments, you're just like, that's not going to end well for that person.
- [51:56]
B
So the empire.
- [51:57]
A
Yep. Not going to end well for the country either. Inflation, so. So if you have high structural inflation, I think of it more like kind of in the 3 to 6% sort of CPI range. Not crazy, out of control, but, you know, not pleasant either. And then if you have war where you see these oil, oil spikes that can spike it up to the 8, 9, 10% range or even a little bit higher in the US and then on top. So balancing that out, we have, we're pushing really hard for AI and reliability robotics. Once you finally get that ubiquitous and especially robotics automation throughout your country, that's highly deflationary. And it's super interesting to watch from my perspective, because I like tech and I follow this stuff pretty closely. China is having severe deflationary problems right now, which is really interesting. And it's because they are so automated, right? And one of the reasons is because they're so incredibly automated right now, they basically can't print money fast enough to keep up with the deflationary effects of how well they're producing things. So they're just spitting out goods and services, you know, way faster than the economy can even bear it. And since the US has basically shut them off, like, we don't buy their products so much anymore because of policies of the Trump administration, they don't have that many people to sell them to. So it worsens the deflation. So it's very interesting. So I think that's coming for the US and it's coming for the West. But we're so far behind China. From an automation perspective, that might be kind of like in the 3 to 5 to 10 year time period where we start seeing those deflationary effects. But in the short term, I think we get that structural inflation, inflation in the 3, 4, 5, 6% range.
- [53:35]
B
See, that seems like the almost the most dangerous range to me because it's like 3 to 6% is damaging for just the people of a country, but it's not really high enough to cause people to actually revolt against something.
- [53:47]
A
Right?
- [53:50]
B
Oh, man, it's going to be interesting. I kind of want to talk about the Fed, although it seems so trivial compared to talking about World War Three. But we spoke about this last time and obviously Wash is meant to be coming in in a month's time. I know there's been delays and whether he'll actually be in by then is kind of up in the air right now. But so last time we spoke, we said he's been dealt a really tough hand. And that hand has only become much tougher since then because he's battling this higher inflation. With oil prices going up, inflation's likely going to continue to rise. Is he still going to come in, cut rates, and be accommodative to the things that Trump wants. Bonds.
- [54:29]
A
He is in a tough spot. I don't think the central bank is relevant for now. I think the treasury, through Besant, has basically neutered the Fed and they don't rule the markets like they used to. I think they're actually going to allow this runoff to like, you know, they've been letting, they were allowing the runoff and now they've been buying a little bit. So there's really, really slow kind of qe. I think that's probably the baseline situation that we're going to continue seeing. And I don't think it really matters if they raise or lower or keep steady the federal funds rate right now. I don't think they'll really matter until we start, until we need financial repression, which I don't see happening unless the war escalates out of control in the next couple of months. So probably not until sell Q4 somewhere in that range or 20, 27, something like that. So I know he's been given a rough hand, but I almost feel like he's a lame duck central banker for now. I think they'll come back into play once the government's like look, we're in a full on war with whoever, maybe China, maybe whoever. We have to borrow so much money and we're going to put hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars into military things. And I know people aren't willing to buy it. So we need the central bank, the Fed to step in and do financial repression basically to buy all of the bonds that we want to issue so we can borrow all this money. That's how I view the Fed right now. I don't really care what they do and I don't think it's really relevant what they do in the near term.
- [56:07]
B
You don't think it's relevant because you don't think actually they can do anything that's impactful enough.
- [56:11]
A
Correct. Not until they do the big print basically. Not until the borrowing is so massive that no one else is left to, to buy it. So they have to step in and monetize all of that debt through financial repression. But, but I don't. Through yield curve control basically. And I don't see that happening anytime super soon.
- [56:34]
B
So with the like mini QE they're doing with the reserve management operation, which I think Is that about 25 billion?
- [56:41]
A
I think so.
- [56:42]
B
Is that right?
- [56:42]
A
I think it was 40 and I think they just lowered it to 25 billion.
- [56:46]
B
Okay, so you don't see that escalating and becoming a larger amount of money throughout the next 12 months or so?
- [56:52]
A
No. And for now to their credit people are still like the boomers are still eating up these short term high yields. So a 1 to 3 month T bill is still yielding like 3.7%. Like boomers love that. It's money market rates are high. They're like, sure, just keep dishing these T bills out. So until the market starts to say, you know what, we don't want your dollars anymore, then we'll see rates start to go higher at that, then that's when it will be a problem. So that's why I think Besant, you see him, he's like pushing really hard. He almost sounds kind of like stressed out. Like you guys have to push through the clarity act, you have to make stablecoin. You have to get this stuff figured out because we're going to dump just billions and billions of dollars worth of T bills on people through these stable coins. So he's really hoping that they get this done and they get it done quickly because I think that's the next step for where this issuance goes.
- [57:43]
B
Okay, so this escalating, like if the war escalates, there's the potential, potential for financial repression, yield, curve control, that kind of thing. On the flip side, if this ceasefire is real, everything starts dying down, what happens then?
- [57:57]
A
Then I think we just kind of go back to normal for a little bit. I think oil will go back down to maybe the $60 or $70 a barrel range. CPI will come back down. We'll say, well, that was something, you know, and inflation won't be that big of a deal. The economy could run hot again. I could see them, you know, possibly trying to do that to run the economy hot into the midterm elections. It's possible. We'll see that. So yeah, but I don't think it's the end of it. I think that's my thing. This is just. There's much more to come in this fourth turning and I think by the end of it, the days of imperial America as the global hegemon will be drawing to a close or will be absolutely like people will know that it's done at that point. And I think it will be a much more multipolar world and I think nations will be able to buy oil with basically any of the major currencies, including the dollar. By the dollar is not going to go away. It just won't be nearly as powerful. Gold will play a larger role. I think Bitcoin will play a larger role. The Yuan will definitely play a larger role. And I just think there's more to come, unfortunately. I just want to make this clear, by the way, because I think I can sound kind of callous when I talk about this stuff. I hate war. I hate the thought of people dying for Stupid government plans. People have these whims and they want to do stuff and actual young men and women die because of that. I hate that. It's just a waste of human life life. Not to mention, and then from a financial standpoint, it's just a total waste of capital. So you're just destroying energy plants, you're destroying manufacturing and data centers and desalination plants, like all these kind of things that like help people just to live regular, normal, good lives. And war just ruins all of that. And so that's terrible and I hate all of it. I just kind of want to caveat everything I'm saying with that.
- [59:40]
B
I think people know you well enough, Jeff, to know that you're not supportive of this stuff. The financial asymmetry in this war is pretty interesting though in that like the, the U.S. are dropping billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars on Iran and they're kind of fighting back with cheap drones. That must change the way that any war in the future is going to be viewed. Do you think there is? What I don't understand fully in this situation is what World War 3 looks like, because I know you're saying there may be troops on the ground at some point. It's not going to be hundreds of thousands of troops I would imagine. Or is that the kind of future that you see?
- [60:19]
A
No, I don't, I don't see that. At least not from the US and not from the Western nations probably. I do think it's going to be a more technological war and a more autonomous war and that's good and bad. It can mean less lives. But it's also hard to predict I think as well I always tell people like the US is by far the strongest and best military to if we have to refight World War II, we would just dominate and crush World War II. The problem is, is we're not going into World War II, we're going into the next war. So you got like fight the next war. So yeah, to your point, right, they're using these Shahid drones that cost about $30,000 a pop and we're, we're dropping multi million dollar missiles to, to intercept and destroy them. You can't do that for too long before you basically just run out of money. So in a war of attrition, the US definitely loses. We can print all the treasuries and dollars we want, but at some point we're going to run out of the supplies and the capacity to make more of these really high tech weapons. So a couple things Are. I do know that lots of these sort of our military companies, both like the, the legacy defense con or defense or offense contractors, whatever you want to call them, and the upstart ones are developing anti drone technology as well as our own drone technology for pretty cheap. So you know, Eric Schmidt's company, they recently came out and they produced these sort of basically reverse shahid drones that can do the same thing and they, we can send them back at them. We also like these microwave tools where if a swarm of drones is coming at say a ship or maybe an island called Car island or something, instead of trying to shoot them down one by one, you can blast them with microwave and it actually can, it's sort of like a emp and it just causes them to lose their power and their abilities. And so there are ways to fight this and we're learning quickly. Sort of, I think a lot of nations like on both, both sides, whether you're the Western allies or the Krinks I call them. So China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, I think that's better than bricks and more appropriate. So the Krinks. So they both are learning a lot from the Russia, Ukraine war and it's kind of turned into a drone against drone war in many ways. And so when you're in a war and your life depends on it, technology tends to move pretty quickly and it adapts very quickly. And so I think the whole world is watching that and has learned a lot. So right now we're sort of sitting ducks. You don't want to be a huge, you know, multi billion dollar ship and have a fleet of little drones coming at you that can sink you or be a underwater mine. But we have that. We're developing quickly the technology to, to fight and counter that.
- [62:56]
B
Yeah. It's interesting as well that the, another big shift in this is that it's gone from the US being the, the country where the exports the most guns. They're like, if you're going to war, you're probably going to be buying guns from the US to now if you go into war, you're probably going to be buying from China. Like that's another huge power shift. Oh man, it's a mess. This is quite bleak, Jeff.
- [63:17]
A
Yes. And I'm not really a bleak person. Sorry, go ahead.
- [63:22]
B
No, exactly. You're a very positive person. And it sounds like you don't really see a world where some kind of war like conflict, little hotspots around the world doesn't escalate.
- [63:35]
A
Yeah. And you know, it's probably because I Just believe in the whole fourth turning cyclical theory of, of history. And I just think we're at that point right now where, and I've been telling my friends and family this for a couple years, like it's going to get worse before it gets better and these wars are going to escalate and we're, we're going to, and even here in the US I'm like, you watch like we're going to start escalating towards a civil war. And people like, like three or four years ago, they're like, you're crazy. There's no way we'll get into a civil war. And now in recent polls, more than half of Americans think we're headed towards a civil war. And that's just not in the US it's, it's all around the world. And so it's like things that were unthink, thinkable even five years ago are now kind of commonplace. And then what's on top of this? And we haven't even talked about all this. So the whole jobless recovery and the whole AI taking over and basically displacing white collar workers and all of the issues that that's causing and the way that, you know, gutting the blue collar economy, the manufacturing economy since about the year 2000, because we put it all overseas and gave it all to China and the Asian nations that just decimated the middle class in the US and the working class and the blue collar class, that's now happening to the white collar class. And it's just starting and people are starting to get fearful about that and be like, what do we do? And the most concerning part of that, and I went back, I've literally been reading economic history and geopolitical history for the last 3,000 years. And whether you're talking about Ray Dalio's big debt crises or Neil Howe's fourth turning, they're all the same. It's always at this point where basically income inequality is so wide that the, the majority at the bottom here gets so angry and upset and they get desperate and they either, you know, so, so things like, you know, alcohol and drug abuse start spiking, suicide and homicide start spiking. And then people start doing crazy things and because they're like, something has to change. And you always get to this point in history where something has to, to change. And that's just where we are right now. And so you have to kind of be blind to not see that, that we're at that point right now. And it doesn't Just end, it almost never ends peacefully. I think there is one episode like in Athens maybe and like I'm going to get these dates wrong but 600 BC or something where the ruling class, the plutocrats, the rich and wealthy ruling class thought you know what, this is looking pretty ugly, maybe we should do things like basically. And people, whenever I bring up ideas by the way, I get called a communist and I get called like a libtard and all these different things. I'm like, look, I'm like the staunchest free market capitalist out there. But during times like this when people are desperate, you have to do something to give relief to people who are desperate or they will do something to you to change the system and overthrow the system. And so I just think we're very close to that point right now. And unfortunately like going back to this whole wartime and World War II, it was awesome because we got all of the Americans behind and this happened all around the world. In Europe as well, people all banded together and created this robust manufacturing sector in industry to support the war efforts. This time around, most of the growth in manufacturing and energy and data centers and all these. It's jobless, it's humans aren't doing the majority of the work. So more and more humans are being job displaced and are starting to get more and more desperate and can't pay their bills and are getting more in debt. And that's a huge problem. And so what is the best place if you can't find work? If you've been like you know, on indeed all day looking for a job job or whatever, pick your thing and you've been working just trying to support yourself and your family, suddenly the military starts looking like a pretty good option. What if you're 22 and you're a college grad and you have debt that you can't pay and you don't have a job and you're living in your parents basement or who knows what you're doing and the military comes in and says we'll take your debt and we'll forgive it, we'll give you a stipend and you'll have a lifetime annuity and free healthcare forever for you and your family. If you join the military, that's a pretty attempting offer. And then if you pair that with a 9, 11 or Pearl harbor type event, suddenly you unite America and suddenly it gets patriotic and exciting to join the war and go get the bad guys. And then life is suddenly good from a military perspective. And so I actually think all of that is coming And I think it's coming probably in the next couple of years, not just in the US but throughout most of the world.
- [68:01]
B
Terrifying. I'm with you, though. I think something will have to give here. And I've been called a commie for this take because when you see what happened to blue collar America when all the work went to China, like huge amounts of drug abuse, suicide, like it was just an economy of despair at that point. And I do think that's coming to white collar everywhere, like not just America, but if that hits the coast and lawyers can't find jobs, accountants can't find jobs, like software engineers, especially lower level, because I think AI is going to make people extremely productive, but just fewer people will be more productive, what happens? And, and I always say, like, I can't see a way out apart from some kind of UBI type scheme. And people have raged at me in the comments about how UBI is terrible. And I, I agree, but I just don't know what other alternative there is.
- [68:51]
A
Right. And that's, that's actually a tangent I was going to talk about, but I didn't. So I'm glad you brought it back to that. I've always. So I'm a staunch free market capitalist, right. And I'm not, I'm also not a Democrat or a Republican. I, I've been, I'm like a fierce independent. I never vote for who, you know, I, I rarely even vote. So I'm not either of those. So if you're going to label me one of these, that's fine, but that's not, you know, I'm not talking to you, Danny, but the people in the audience. But so, so here's what I talk to people about. Free market capitalism is the best human system. But what if the people you're competing with is an AI who's literally 10,000 times smarter and faster than you and better in every way. So say as a doctor, I used to be a radiologist, say AI is able to do radio radiology 10,000 times better, faster, you know, and, and less expensive than I can do it as a radiologist, I'm not going to have a job who would pay for that? Like, if you have to pay a radiologist, whatever, several hundred thousands of dollars to do the work, or you could get a plug in from, you know, Claude and have AI do it for your whole hospital system for whatever they pay for a subscription, which isn't very much, you're going to choose that eventually that option, even though you have the Luddites and the new Neo Luddites who, who are very against all of this technology coming, like you can'. Technology or an idea whose time has come so they'll resist it, but it's going to win eventually. That's my take, I think, to your point that you have to do something. If I were the plutocrat class right now, if I were Elon and Bill Gates and you know, and all the politicians, I would be having a meeting right now, today. What are we going to do to help the working class, especially these 20 somethings who just graduated and have all this debt and they can't afford a house and they have no job and they're getting angrier and angrier and they're starting to think it's cool to go kill CEOs and do crazy things like that. Like you have to do something and you have to do something soon. And I know that that sounds communist, but when you, when you're competing against AI and robots, I'm sorry, but you're not going to win. I don't care how smart you are as a human or how talented you are, you can't compete with AI. And so you don't want to have a system, a capitalistic system that's built on competing with AI. That means you're always going to take second or you're always going to lose. And so you're going to be the creative destruction. AI gets all the gains. So I think what makes the most sense in trying to be so positive. Spin. These AI companies are just killing it. Like Anthropic and OpenAI are killing it. They're growing faster in revenues, faster than any company that's ever existed. It's unbelievable. I think the run rate on Anthropic is going to approach $100 billion in 2026. They think it could get to a trillion dollars of revenue run rate in 2020, 2027. Unbelievable amounts of money.
- [71:39]
B
Insane.
- [71:39]
A
And so what makes sense to me is you can call it a government tax on these companies. You can call, some people have said like a technology dividend or something to make it a positive, put a positive spin on it. But at some point you got to take all of that money that's getting centered to AI and going to AI or these companies that are using AI and firing all of their employees and now their operating margins are through the roof because they don't have to pay people to do what they used to pay people for. You have to do something as a government to get money to the people. And so there's people who have ideas of universal basic services, food, water, electricity, compute and shelter. You could do something like that. Like right now in America, you can walk on any street, you can find public drinking fountains with safe water to drink for the most part. That's a public utility. You have electricity, the lights are on, things like that. And so you could expand all that. That's one. One way to do it. Or you can just give everybody money. That's the easiest and quickest solution. And normally I would be super opposed to all of that with any other human system. But because the world is changing so quickly, I think that's the only option right now. Because we could have this abundant world on the other side of this. And I think we probably will if we could fast forward 10 years. But in the meantime getting there, you actually have to survive for 10 years. And you can't survive if you can't pay for food and you can't keep your lights on in your house and you can't support your family. So if I were government officials or the plutocrats, I would be thinking right now, today of a solution for the coming like months and quarters or things are going to get really ugly.
- [73:11]
B
Yeah, and I totally agree with that. And it's not that I support it, it's that because I'll be one of the people that has to essentially pay for that through either inflation or tax. But it's more that I just don't see another way out. And I don't think these tech CEOs will be doing this out of the goodness of their heart. They'll be doing it because they know if they don't then their data centers are going to get bombed and like there'll be a real revolution against it. Like there's no other way around it. In my opinion. I may be being a doomer there, but I just don't see another way out of this.
- [73:39]
A
Right. And it's already starting. I'm sure you read the news with Sam Altman, like somebody threw a Molotov cocktail at his house and somebody shot it up. And some politician in, I can't remember, Ohio or something, his house got shot up because he was pro data center. And so I call them the Neoluddites, like they're the people who are going to fight this. But this is what happens when people get desperate. And you can be a heartless capitalist, and I'm actually generally a heartless capitalist, but this time period is not a time to be a heartless capitalist because I don't know the World is changing really fast and I think it's going to get worse still. I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.
- [74:17]
B
As long as it gets better. Jeff. A period of pain. But I hope the world is better for my daughter.
- [74:23]
A
It will be better for our kids. We just have to get through this ugly period first.
- [74:27]
B
Yeah, just like, one last question to close out, because this is something that I think about quite a lot. You've got young kids. I've got a younger kid than you. Do you think my toddler will ever have a job?
- [74:39]
A
Probably. And probably we won't even be able to recognize what it is. Like, it won't make sense to us because it'll be so different. I don't think they'll have to do hard labor. I mean, unless. So. Unless there's a nuclear holocaust, right? Okay, so. So say we have a war. Everything changes, and now we're on the other side of that. We're on a new financial system. We're growing again, we're building. I. I do think that AI and robotics will do most of the labor. I think people will do things like. I don't think colleges will really need to exist other than for fun. So people might go to school.
- [75:18]
B
School.
- [75:20]
A
Because it's sort of like, like, I think, in fact, I think college the term. And I'm. I, I should, I should have checked this before I said this. It used to just be for wealthy people to go and, like, it was considered a luxury to go learn. Just sort of for fun, I think, back in Athens or something like that. So again, I'm probably totally off on that. But I think we come back to a world like that because everyone will be able to know whatever they need to know with AI. And you don't even have to know it anyways, because AI will know it. If there is work. It will be. It's kind of like if you told a farmer a hundred years ago that you're a podcaster and that you, you know, that you interview people online, they would just be like, what are you talking about?
- [76:00]
B
Like, my grandparents don't understand what I do. I've explained it like five times. And they just have no idea what I do.
- [76:05]
A
Right, right. So I think it's actually going to be worse. So I think if you could fast forward 20 years into the future, we'd be like, what? And they would. They're going to say some just crazy thing, and maybe it has to do with, like, going to the moon, something here, and you're just like, what are you talking about? That's what I think it's going to be. It's going to be almost unrecognizable. And so. So, yes, I think there'll be work. I don't think it will be bad work. I think in General, you know, humanity, 10 like, life tends to get better over time and easier, even though we like to complain about it. Like, we all have dishwashers and refrigerators and we don't have to go to the river to go get water. Right. We have indoor plumbing and that kind of stuff. So I think it will get better, but I don't really know what work will look like, but I think it will be relative to today. To today. It will less work and it'll be easier work than today.
- [76:53]
B
Well, that's straight into the first turning then. I'm looking forward to that. Jeff, thank you so much. You are one of my favorite people to speak to. This has been awesome. Now you've got a new substack. You're not on social media anymore. So this is the opportunity to shill it, tell everyone about what you're doing.
- [77:10]
A
Hey. All right. Well, thanks, man. I love our talk. So you're nice to let me. I honestly just feel like a tinfoil hat, full on conspiracy. I know, but yeah, I do, too. And people are like, just talk about bitcoin. Quit talking about that geopolitical stuff. Stay in your lane. I always have somebody. Somebody tells me to stay in my lane anyways, as a. And just so those people know. I know. I know who you are. I'm watching you. You're going to tell me to stay in my lane. Like, I'm a macro hedge fund manager. Like, I actually have to know what's going on geopolitically and I have to kind of see around the next corner in order to do well in my fund. So that's why I pay so much attention to this stuff. What am I doing, Danny? So. So thanks for asking. I started in March, a new substack, so a newsletter basically. And it's called Dr. Jeff's macro chart Book. And another thing I want to say is I'm not. So that I have to have people call me doctor. It's only because that's how people know me online is as Dr. Jeff. And everybody knows the real Jeff of, like, the bitcoin and macro world is Jeff Booth. So I don't want them to think I'm him. And then there's another Jeff Ross who's a comedian out there who's way more popular than I am. So if I just say Jeff Ross then I. It just, I get lost in the wind. So that's why I say Dr. Jeff. It's not because I'm super vain, but what I'm doing is I spend most of my days looking at charts and figuring out things momentum and looking at kind of long term and short term trends and long term secular trends and this notebook. I release an issue every other Thursday morning and it's basically the top, at least for now, it's the top five charts that I'm looking at and sort of the macro conclusions I draw from that. And a lot of people want to know am I going to be giving individual investment advice or like bitcoin buying advice? And no, I'm not. I can't do that. As a fund manager. I'm literally restricted to do that because it's considered general solicitation. I can't do that. So it's just more my general thoughts. Not unlike these kind of interviews. But I like to teach in there and just kind of let people know what I'm thinking about the world and also kind of my general thoughts as a hedge fund manager. So yeah, it's a lot of fun, so feel free. It's called Dr. Jeff's macro chart Book. You can find me on substack and that's pretty much the only place I'm posting these days.
- [79:12]
B
Amazing. I didn't know this existed before today's call. So I will be a subscriber next time. Jeff, I'm going to come to you. We should do another one in person, but this has been awesome. Thank you very much.
- [79:22]
A
Thanks for having me. Danny. I love being on your show.
- [79:24]
B
I will make sure the link's in the show for everyone to check out the newsletter and I will speak to you soon, mate.
- [79:30]
A
I'm looking forward to it already.