What Really Matters with Walter Russell Mead

Episode: Saudi Arabia's Coalition Against Israel
Date: February 14, 2026
Host: Jeremy Stern
Guest: Walter Russell Mead

Episode Overview

This episode delves into major shifts in global geopolitics, focusing on three prominent news stories: a U.S.-led crackdown on Russian oil, the Trump administration’s rollback of climate change policy, and China’s mounting Arctic ambitions. The central discussion unpacks a striking realignment in the Middle East: how and why Saudi Arabia has gone from rapproching with Israel to spearheading a coalition against Israeli interests. Walter Russell Mead analyzes the complexities behind these changes, paying special attention to regional rivalries, the evolving Palestinian issue, and the strategic calculus of Saudi leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Russia’s Oil Crisis & Western Pressure

Timestamps: 00:06 – 08:17

• Backdrop: Russian oil tankers are idling at sea as Western governments tighten sanctions and seize ships. India, under American pressure, is curbing Russian oil imports, driving Urals crude below $45 a barrel.
• U.S. Policy: Mead points out that the Trump administration is orchestrating a more severe squeeze on Russia than seen previously, contradicting mainstream narratives about Trump and Putin.
  • Quote ([01:19], Mead):
    “This is actually a massive crackdown on Russia…more significant in some ways than anything that people have done before.”
• Media Critique: Mead criticizes mainstream American media for failing to connect the dots and present the full scope of these maneuvers.
• India’s Stance: Stern inquires about India’s compliance, and Mead explains that private business motivations, shipping insecurity, and the potential reentry of Iranian oil dictate Indian purchases—rather than any clear state policy.
  • Quote ([05:19], Mead):
    “If I were looking at the fact that Russian oil tankers keep getting captured… I might think…let’s just say I need to diversify my supply chain.”
• U.S.-India Relations: With Trump loyalist Ambassador Gore in Delhi, Indian interests are likely to get a warmer reception in Washington.

2. Trump Cancels EPA’s Climate Change Finding

Timestamps: 08:17 – 13:09

• Policy Shift: The Trump administration is moving to abolish the scientific foundation for U.S. regulation of greenhouse gases, challenging decades of bipartisan consensus on climate risk.
• Media Tone: Mead critiques New York Times coverage for being overly opinionated, alleging that advocacy journalism undermines public trust.
  • Quote ([09:17], Mead):
    “The curse of modern journalism is that so many people think they should use their platforms to advance a political agenda.”
• Strategic Consequence: Mead senses a “hinge moment,” with both alarmist and downplaying narratives circulating in the media. He insists journalistic accuracy is key to public credibility.
  • Quote ([11:35], Mead):
    “When you turn yourself into a propagandist…you make yourself unreliable…someday there’ll be a wolf and no one will listen to you.”

3. China’s Arctic Encroachment

Timestamps: 13:09 – 18:47

• Recent Moves: China is unveiling a conceptual nuclear-powered icebreaker, part of its broader, long-term effort to embed itself in the Arctic “for cargo and tourism”—but with obvious military implications.
• Regional Tensions: Despite nominal cooperation, Russia is uneasy about ceding Arctic influence to China, while NATO members Norway and Iceland have allowed Chinese research stations on their soil.
  • Quote ([14:18], Mead):
    “You would have to be an idiot not to know what the Chinese are up to, and what does that make you if you’re then collaborating with their efforts?”
• U.S. Strategy Contradictions: Mead points out the paradox of the Trump administration downplaying climate change while betting foreign policy on Arctic routes that exist only because of climate-driven ice melt.
• Ukraine Connection: Ongoing war in Ukraine deepens Russia’s dependence on China, complicating Western interests in both Central Asia and the Arctic.

4. The Big Conversation: Saudi Arabia’s Coalition Against Israel

Timestamps: 18:47 – 33:19

a. Saudi Shift in Regional Alignment

• Media Indicators: The Saudi press’ increase in anti-Israel content shouldn’t be dismissed; while Saudi Arabia isn’t reverting to “Nasser-style hostility,” it’s clearly cooling toward Israel and drawing closer to Qatar, Turkey, and even Egypt.
  • Quote ([19:33], Mead):
    “It is definitely the Saudi that is both stepping away from deepening cooperation with Israel…and moving…toward Qatar and Turkey…”
• Syria as Pivot: One catalyst is Syria; Saudi, Turkish, and Qatari alignment over supporting a Sunni-rooted Syrian government, now nudged along by U.S. (Trump) policy.
  • Israel hoped for a Turkish-Saudi rivalry; instead, cooperation is thriving.
  • Kurds, previously U.S. allies, are now abandoned, pleasing Ankara, Syria, and Riyadh—frustrating Israel.

b. Calculating the Cost of Cooperation

• Domestic Politics: The Gaza war’s impact on Saudi public opinion has made support for Palestinians a domestic political necessity.
  • Quote ([24:42], Mead):
    “If you recognize Israel without getting something obvious and good in return for the Palestinians, then you look pretty bad in Saudi Arabia.”
• Diminished Need for Israel: With Iran weakened, the principal reason for closer Saudi-Israeli ties has faded; Saudis also now need less from the relationship.
• Gulf Rivalries: Long-standing competition with the UAE, once “the open, liberal alternative,” now faces Riyadh’s own economic and social reforms. Saudi Arabia’s centralization drive pressures multinational companies to relocate HQs from Dubai to Riyadh, fueling further divergence.
  • Quote ([29:00], Mead):
    “The Emiratis…doubled down on this during the Gaza war…now…the Saudis deftly step away from the Israel camp, and it leaves the Emiratis alone, very publicly hugging the skunk.”
• Qatar & Turkey Reapproachment: Realigning with these actors allows Riyadh to manage ideological challenges—especially the Muslim Brotherhood—which threatens royal legitimacy.

c. Domestic Reform & Economic Realities

• Economic Trouble: MBS’s “Vision 2030” mega-projects like NEOM are delayed or downsized due to both disappointing returns and low oil prices, pressuring the Crown Prince to offer political concessions to conservatives (e.g., hardline stances against Israel).
  • Liberalizing at home is balanced with firm pro-Palestinian credentials abroad to stabilize his base.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S.-Russian Rivalry:
  “The media cannot see this pattern. I am not saying that this is going to succeed…But if you simply observe the phenomena, they tell you a story.” ([02:50], Mead)
• On Media & Public Trust:
  “So many bright people…have systematically and unnecessarily sabotaged their own ability by poisoning the well of trust.” ([12:50], Mead)
• On Middle East Shifts:
  “Saudi policy is nuanced as you need to be as an oil state in a dangerous region…You need to think very hard and not necessarily, like, run to extremes all the time.” ([25:45], Mead)
• On UAE-Saudi Rivalry:
  “It was like, who’s going to outgun the other in the quest for demonstrating I’m a great open city…Now… the Saudis deftly step away from the Israel camp, and it leaves the Emiratis alone, very publicly hugging the skunk.” ([29:00], Mead)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Russian Oil Squeeze Explained: 00:06 – 08:17
• Climate Policy Rollback & Media Critique: 08:17 – 13:09
• China’s Arctic Ambitions: 13:09 – 18:47
• Saudi Shifts Regional Bloc: 18:47 – 33:19

Final Segment: "Tip of the Week"

Timestamps: 33:19 – 37:14

• Mead’s Rant on Presidents’ Day: Mead passionately criticizes lumping together Washington and Lincoln with all U.S. presidents under “President’s Day,” arguing it diminishes their unique contributions and turns remembrance into a meaningless ritual about political careerism.
  • Quote ([33:38], Mead):
    “Do we really want to celebrate as a group all of our presidents? I don’t actually think so. I can think of a few that maybe don’t deserve a lot of singing and dancing in the streets.”
  • Quote ([36:22], Mead):
    “We diminish and demean ourselves when we don’t honor and revere and study the accomplishments of people who’ve done so much for us.”

Summary

This episode delivers a sharp, comprehensive analysis of three global stories, with the main focus on a little-reported but profound realignment in Middle Eastern politics: Saudi Arabia’s pivot away from Israel and toward a new, pragmatic Sunni coalition. Walter Russell Mead offers deep historical perspective, critiques of both journalism and policymaking, and insight into the complex, sometimes contradictory logic guiding leaders in Riyadh, Washington, and beyond.

For listeners seeking depth on geopolitics, regional power shifts, and the subtleties behind headlines, this episode is essential.