Episode Overview

Podcast: What Really Matters with Walter Russell Mead
Episode Title: The Higher Ed Doom Spiral
Date: December 5, 2025
Host(s): Walter Russell Mead, Jeremy Stern
Produced by: Tablet Magazine

Theme:
This episode investigates the mounting crises in American higher education: collapsing enrollment, declining value of degrees, failing student preparation, and rapidly shifting labor and demographic trends. Alongside the “doom spiral” of colleges, the hosts weigh in on news about military strikes, pandemic-era fraud, and shifting political coalitions—each analyzed for what really matters and what doesn’t. Mead brings his trademark blend of history, wit, and sharp skepticism.

News Analysis Segment

1. U.S. Military Strike Controversy (00:46–04:40)

• Summary:
  The episode opens with a discussion of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defending a deadly double strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat near Latin America. Hegseth claims “fog of war” and distances himself from the controversial second strike, raising questions about legality and blame-shifting as Congress investigates.

• Mead’s Take:
  Mead quickly calls it “faux news.”

  “We don’t yet really know what happened in that second strike… Suddenly my Twitter feed just filled up with these experts on international law… There are big questions about what we mean by international law anyway here.” (Walter Russell Mead, 02:08)

  • The story is more about political posturing than substance.
  • If regime change in Venezuela is allowed by international law, then smaller steps like this strike would logically follow; if not, the frying of a fishing boat is a footnote.
  • Congressional investigations are “chewing themselves up”—potentially to Trump's political advantage.

• Notable Quote:

  “More investigations of the fishing boats, please.” (Mead, 04:34)

2. Pandemic-Era Fraud in Minnesota (04:40–12:08)

• Summary:
  Minnesota saw over $1B in fraudulent claims targeting safety-net programs, with many convictions centered in the Somali diaspora. There’s bipartisan frustration—some see immigrant communities unfairly maligned; others see proof the system is being abused.

• Mead’s Take:
  Not as big a deal as Trump’s supporters assert, but “more damning” than Democratic leaders will acknowledge.

  “Just because there’s a kind of crime that’s widespread in a particular community, that doesn’t mean that a majority of people… are involved.” (Mead, 05:54)

  • Affirms: Immigration is a powerful and complicated force in American (and European) life—ignoring challenges is no longer viable.
  • Suggests ongoing fraud is likely, especially given precedent in Medicare and COVID programs.
  • Equates institutional failures (like public education fizzling during COVID) with theft from the public.

• Memorable Analogy:

  “I look at the fact that… many kids spend 12 years in American schools and… come out not knowing anything. That in a sense is theft of social services.” (Mead, 11:03)

3. GOP Coalition Shake-Up (12:08–18:09)

• Summary:
  Manhattan Institute survey finds the new GOP: 65% traditional conservatives, 30–35% more diverse, younger, and holding progressive views on many issues—including open racism/antisemitism and willingness to support political violence.

• Mead’s Take:
  Not novel, but quantifies “the thing everyone is talking about.” Polling is hard among unconventional, young voters—margin of error likely high.

  “The big news I would say here though is that the 65% of traditional Republicans and the 35% or whatever of quote, new Republicans, unless they vote together, they don’t elect anybody to anything.” (Mead, 14:58)

  • These groups must coordinate, despite increasingly divergent values.
  • Trump’s “coalition magic” is essential but may be one-of-a-kind.
  • Predicts younger voters are more likely to evolve views.

• Standout Reflection:

  “Trump really did pull off something of a political miracle by wielding these groups into a pretty comprehensive voting coalition. But it’s going to be harder for him. And it is by no means clear that there's anybody else... who can do that job.” (Mead, 17:48)

The Big Conversation: The “Higher Ed Doom Spiral” (18:09–32:50)

Crisis Signs in Higher Education

Host Jeremy Stern lists:

• College grads’ employment advantage has vanished (Federal Reserve, Cleveland study)
• Record-high unemployment among recent college graduates (as of Sept '25)
• College enrollment nationwide has dropped about 7%
• Soaring rates of incoming freshmen needing middle-school level remediation
• At Stanford, 38% of undergrads claim some form of disability, requiring official accommodations

“There have been a number of news stories recently about some pretty drastic changes and some worrying trends in higher ed… but tell us: what do you think it is?” (Stern, 18:09)

Mead’s Synthesis and Analysis

1. The Enrollment Crisis Feeds Academic Decline

• Desperate Recruitment:
  Collapsing enrollment (fewer 18-year-olds demographically, especially with declining immigration) pushes colleges to lower academic standards, taking less-prepared students.

  “Colleges are getting much more desperate to try to recruit students. That’s not unconnected from the fact that you’re seeing populations of students who can’t do the work, aren’t prepared for college work and the colleges are taking them anyway.” (Mead, 19:34)

• Remediation Problem:
  Colleges aren’t equipped to do what high schools failed to do.

  “A high school should be better at remedial high school education than a college should be… If your 11th grade teacher couldn’t or didn’t teach you anything, I’m not sure your freshman remedial college teacher… can do it.” (Mead, 21:24)

• Academic Standards Drop:
  Colleges can’t afford high grading standards—students would choose easier alternatives.

2. Shifting Labor Market Rewards

• Blue-collar boost:
  With fewer illegal immigrants, low-skilled jobs pay better. AI hits “prestige” jobs (like consulting) first, reducing employment for college grads.

  “The landscapers, you know, are not facing quite as many challenges from AI as the computer coders are.” (Mead, 20:46)

• Employer Skepticism:
  Some prestigious colleges are now “red flags” for employers, concerned about the efficacy of their curriculum.

• Consulting and AI:
  Consulting (upper-echelon employment for grads) is shrinking, freezing hiring amid AI disruption.

3. Underlying Drivers: Economic Competition & Demography

• DEI as Recruitment, Not Just Ideology:
  Intense focus on DEI isn’t just belief-driven; it’s “partly a recruitment strategy.”

  “Who are the ethnic groups in our society where the population is decreasing… who are the groups that are… having more children? How do we position ourselves to capture the next wave?” (Mead, 24:36)

• Regional Impact:
  The crisis is acute in the Northeast and New England where demographic change is fastest.

  • New, non-traditional student pools are the only growth area.

4. Coming Era: Clash of Values & Employer Demands

• Tech and Patriotism:
  Companies (ex: Palantir) now seek “patriotic Americans” loyal to the US in an era of national competition—contradicting the global/relativist ethic fostered at elite schools.

  “There’s a terrible mismatch between the curriculum that elite colleges are teaching their students and the actual formation… needed for success in the emerging world. That is really serious.” (Mead, 28:50)

• Return to Cold War Mentality:
  The “end of history” era is over—students are being prepped for a world that may not return; schools must urgently change.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On college recruitment:

  “The competitive pressures will actually be making a lot of colleges sort of tend toward being even less good at teaching as the quality of their students may be going down.” (Mead, 22:13)

• On institutional failure:

  “That is, that is not all that different from stealing money from Medicare, it would seem to me.” (Mead, 11:03, comparing non-teaching to social welfare fraud)

• On shifting educational needs:

  “If that's happening, colleges are going to need to find a way to adjust.” (Mead, 32:43)

Key Timestamps

• [00:46] - U.S. Military Strike News & Analysis
• [04:40] - Massive Pandemic-Era Fraud in Minnesota
• [12:08] - Changing GOP Demographics & Implications
• [18:09] - The Higher Ed Doom Spiral ("Big Conversation")

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sweeping diagnosis of higher ed’s multi-part “doom spiral,” linking economic, demographic, and political pressures to the fading value of a college education. Mead’s analysis situates campus trends in larger historical and labor market contexts, challenging listeners to look past culture-war headlines for deeper structural causes.

For those seeking a nuanced understanding of why college feels “broken”—and what might come next—this episode is essential listening.