Transcript
A (0:00)
Foreign.
B (0:05)
Welcome back, everybody, to what really matters. I'm Jeremy Stern with you in New York this week. I'm here as always with Walter Russell Mead of tablet, the Wall Street Journal, Hudson Institute and the Hamilton center at the University of Florida. It's a somber Thursday afternoon to be recording WALTER on the 24th anniversary of 911 here in New York and also the day after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, which we'll discuss momentarily in the big conversation. But first, let's start with the other news from this week. Our first story of the week. NATO warplanes shot down four Russian drones that flew deep into Polish territory overnight. On Wednesday, Polish authorities said that at least 19 drones had entered Polish airspace, some of them flying nearly as far west as Lodz in central Poland, where they were intercepted by Dutch F35s and Polish F16s. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the incursion as a, quote, provocation on a large scale and added that this situation brings us the closest we've been to open conflict since World War II. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the drones were small reconnaissance or decoy drones, not one way attack drones, suggesting their purpose was to probe NATO's air defenses and reaction time. The Russian Ministry of Defense has denied any intention of attacking Poland. Walter, is this news or faux news?
A (1:25)
Well, it's news and I don't think it's good news. This is another example of a Russian provocation to which the west fails to respond with sufficient seriousness to change the direction of events. When the NATO spokesman said, or the Polish spokesman says, well, this was testing NATO's defenses, air defenses against a drone attack. Well, yes, but it was also testing the, the, the strength of NATO's cohesion and the strength of its strategic consensus. As I understand it now, the polls are going to convene Article 4 talks. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which is there's an invasion is concerned. But you know, and that's in turn, if you're thinking like a NATO bureaucrat and a traditional diplomat. Oh, well, we're certainly showing them now. We are escalating to extremely concern. That will certainly show those pesky Rutsky's. It won't show them anything at all. If the west announced a major program of rearmament, if there were large military exercises taking place in the Baltic Sea, there are all kinds of responses that one could make to a provocation of this kind that would say not only we don't like it, but also we don't want you to do this anymore. And if you keep doing stuff like this, you will be unhappy. We're not doing that. We are still going. Oh, Tisk, Tisk. I understand the Europeans are debating the 19th package of NATO sanctions. Well, that will certainly. The EU sanctions. That will certainly show Moscow something. And if that doesn't work, we have the 20th, the 21st, and the 22nd package on are all coming. They better watch out in the Kremlin. I think Putin's sense of contempt for the west continues to grow, and as long as that does, we can expect to see a somewhat more aggressive posture now. You know, another, maybe slightly more optimistic reading of what's happening is that he is feeling the wear and tear of the war on his economy and on his army and his society, and so he's stepping up his provocations in the hope of trying to move the war faster. And that would be a slightly better sign. Nevertheless, our failure to give him the kind of response that would actually make him think twice. Whatever his goals are in launching this simply means that we're telling him, go on, Vlad, you know, take another punch. We're fine.
