What Really Matters with Walter Russell Mead

Episode: Trump’s Ukraine Ultimatum That Wasn’t

Date: November 26, 2025

Host: Jeremy Stern

Guest: Walter Russell Mead

Episode Overview

This episode dissects the week’s biggest political stories, focusing on three main issues: the growing MAGA rift over AI policy, shifting American birthrate patterns along ideological lines, and, most deeply, the confusion and implications around the Trump administration’s so-called “Ukraine Ultimatum.” Walter Russell Mead provides historical, political, and personal perspective, aiming to clarify what news actually matters and how listeners should think about these evolving stories.

Key Discussion Points

1. Rift in the MAGA Movement over AI Policy

Segment begins: [00:00]

• Context: Trump has aligned himself with tech sector ambitions and removed Biden-era AI regulations, inviting massive investment and tech sector influence into his administration.
• Problem: Republican leaders such as DeSantis, Huckabee Sanders, and Josh Hawley push back, expressing fear that AI’s growth will undercut MAGA populism by threatening jobs, increasing energy costs, and exposing youth to new technology risks.
• Insight:
  • Mead: “It’s real. It shouldn’t be news in the sense that people should have seen this one coming.” ([01:27])
  • MAGA movement is experiencing a “fissure” between populist elements wary of tech and pro-growth factions seeking to leap ahead of China.
  • Balancing technological leadership with social protections is identified as an urgent but formidable policy challenge.
  • Historical parallel: The car as an irresistible but disruptive technological force, similar “job-eating” effects anticipated for AI.
  • Prediction: “A lot of history of the next 30 to 50 years is going to be about society struggling to process this thing, this stuff.” ([05:55])
• Notable Quote:
  • “Somehow you have to find a way for the average person to benefit from this information economy.” ([07:55])
  • Advocates for creative citizen data compensation and regulatory experimentation—likening future missteps to early, clumsy car regulations.

2. US-China Diplomacy on Taiwan and Ukraine

Segment begins: [09:12]

• Context: Reports suggest Xi Jinping initiated a direct call with Trump, aiming to discuss Taiwan, but Trump redirects to Ukraine peace talks.
• Ambiguities: It’s not clear who initiated the call; diplomatic theater seems to be at play as both leaders air their priorities for public consumption.
• Mead’s Take:
  • “It's not clear, actually. As you look at all the reports, there's some serious disputes as to whether in fact it was Xi or Trump that initiated the call.” ([09:57])
  • Suggests Xi is posturing to his domestic audience, signaling busy engagement with the US after Japan’s assertiveness on Taiwan.
  • Xi viewed as unable or unwilling to militarily escalate soon, focused instead on public optics.
• Takeaway: The call is more about diplomatic PR than any substantive policy movement.

3. The Birthrate Shift: Liberal vs. Conservative Young Women

Segment begins: [11:59]

• Context: Data show a widening birthrate gap—by 2024, 75% of liberal women aged 18-35 are childless, compared to ~40% of conservative women (formerly a narrow gap).
• Cultural Insights:
  • Term “dinks” (dual income, no kids) popular among liberals; conservative women continue to be defined, in part, by early childbearing.
  • Mead observes, “many of the young women who are deciding to have children are deciding to do it younger. And I actually think in a lot of ways that's healthy.” ([12:54])
  • He reframes modern family planning in light of longer life expectancies and career horizons, arguing that early childbearing and later workforce entry is now more feasible and beneficial.
• Dialogue:
  • Stern quips, “My wife and I, who are in our mid-30s, every time we meet a couple in their mid-20s with kids, our kids age, we always look at each other and realize we made some sort of mistake.” ([15:09])
  • Advice for young women: “There is a way that more young women can have it all, is to have those children early and then kind of plan their move into the workforce when they're late 20s, early 30s.” ([16:19])

4. The Big Conversation: Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan & European Paralysis

Segment begins: [17:39]

The “28-Point Ultimatum”

• Event: Trump administration reveals a peace plan for Ukraine, initially presented as a hard ultimatum, but quickly softened to “guideline” status amid backlash.
• Sequence:
  • The plan is perceived as originally too “pro-Russian” for the West/Ukraine, then revised for more balance, causing Russians to reject it.
  • Mead: “Trump was ready to put some pressure on the Ukrainians to try to get them to sign to something like his original plan, but he backed off in crime incredibly quickly.” ([18:43])
  • The process is described as “smoke and noise”—an exercise in political theater rather than serious diplomatic progress.

Trump’s Real Target: Europe

• Key Insight:

  • “The real target of Trump's policy is Europe, not neither Russia nor Ukraine at this point.” ([24:51])
  • Trump wants to end the pattern where the US acts as Europe’s backstop, forcing Europeans to shoulder more of the Ukraine burden themselves—citing 1990s Yugoslav conflict as a cautionary precedent.
  • The US signals that if Europe doesn’t step up, a more Russia-favored peace is unavoidable.

• European Dysfunction:

  • Europe criticized for dithering and procedural delay, especially regarding the use of frozen Russian assets as Ukraine aid.
  • “This is an empty position. It's vanity pretending to be courage, which is a fairly common disease in the west these days.” ([25:20])

• Geopolitical Prognosis:

  • Mead observes a lack of European political dynamism, with major leaders gridlocked or consumed by internal politics (UK, France, Germany).
  • Putin sees strategic opportunity in Europe’s inability to act, deepening divides within the West.
  • For China, the Ukraine distraction is beneficial—less attention on Taiwan or Indian border disputes.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “If you thought [the Europeans] were worth something, you would try to prevent that from happening...” ([28:49])
  • “India has significantly better chance of escaping from that in the near future than Europe does. But we'll see.” ([29:36])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On managing AI disruption:
  • “In general, the jobs get eaten before the new jobs get created. So we're going to see everybody from coders to truck drivers facing loss of jobs. And that's going to be big.” (Mead, [05:15])
• On European identity:
  • “The real target of Trump's policy is Europe... If you want to keep this war ... have at it. If you don't, there's going to be a very pro Russian peace.” (Mead, [24:51])
• On Thanksgiving traditions:
  • “You do not have to take the bait. You are not a fish that has to, like, strike that hook and, you know, have a bit. You can leave it on the table. ...Let politics go where politics belong.” (Mead, [33:50])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• MAGA Tech Rift: [00:00] – [09:12]
• US-China (Taiwan/Ukraine): [09:12] – [11:59]
• Birthrate Ideology Gap: [11:59] – [17:39]
• Ukraine Peace Plan & European Weakness: [17:39] – [30:31]
• Thanksgiving Tips: [30:45] – [34:46]

Closing Notes: Thanksgiving & Family

• Walter’s “tip of the week” is a humorous tale about miscommunications at family holidays, emphasizing the importance of clarity and avoiding political disputes over dinner.
• “Enjoy your family, enjoy your life. Let politics go where politics belong. And afterwards, you can all sit around and talk about, oh, did you hear what he was saying?” (Mead, [34:27])

Listeners are encouraged to focus on what really matters, avoid media noise, and both embrace and adapt to change, whether in politics, technology, or personal life.