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What happens when higher mortgage rates actually help the housing market? In this episode, Quinton Harris breaks down new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual conference and explains why 2026 could bring a major surge in home sales and refinancing. He reveals how the “lock-in effect” is finally shifting, what record equity levels mean for current homeowners, and why the next housing wave might be fueled not by falling rates—but by rising opportunity.

“The cure for this market wasn’t lower rates—it was higher ones.” — Quinton Harris

Chart Source: FHFA — All outstanding mortgages, through June 2025

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00:00 – Gov shutdown & data
00:35 – MBA conference recap
01:05 – AI rant
03:10 – Mortgage data
03:40 – Rate gap widens
04:50 – High-rate behavior
05:55 – Investor loans
07:45 – Job market shift
08:35 – Texana REMLO ad
09:35 – Fast payoffs
10:35 – Rising equity
11:40 – No housing crash
12:55 – Lock-in effect
13:55 – Swapping rates
14:55 – Higher-rate cure
15:55 – 2026 forecast
16:25 – Pent-up demand
17:15 – Outro

Ep. 261 - What the Mortgage Bankers Association Is Predicting