Podcast Summary:

What’s Your Number? – “From War Economy to Election Economy”
Ark Media | Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Yael Wisner-Levy
Date: January 21, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of "What's Your Number?" delves into a critical economic period for Israel as it transitions from a war-driven economy into an election-driven one. Hosts Yonatan Adiri and Yael Wisner-Levy analyze how emerging political dynamics, geopolitical shifts, and economic policies are impacting the Israeli economy, with a special focus on the unique consequences of entering an election year. The discussion combines macroeconomic analysis with everyday realities, illustrated through the rising cost of iconic local goods and evolving market forces.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Numbers of the Week: Everyday Economics

• Yael: “My number this week is 22... 22 shekels. It's the cost of an eight pack of... Crembo.”
  (00:10)
  • Crembo: symbol of rising consumer prices; up from 14 shekels just five years ago.
  • Reflects the impact of post-October 7th inflation on daily Israeli life.
• Yonatan: “My number is one and a half billion... compensation that is planned for taxi drivers in Israel.”
  (00:58)
  • Compensation linked to legislative moves for Uber’s entry, a longstanding battle.
  • Represents classic Israeli economic reforms: “The way forward is to compensate those who've had the right before.”

2. Diplomacy Inc. and Geopolitical Shifts

• Recent diplomatic agreements and moves (e.g., Pax Silica, Peace Board of Gaza) are significantly impacting local and regional economics.
• Mixed global influences: Saudi distancing from normalization, Iran’s ongoing shadow.

3. Strength of the Shekel & Export Implications

(03:52–05:11)

• Despite security turmoil, the shekel remains stable at 3.15 against the dollar.
• Yonatan: “If the shekel gets stronger,... you might invest your R and D dollars outside of Israel in other markets where the local currency allow for you to get more than for your buck.” (06:46)
• Risks to high-tech sector and exporters if the shekel appreciates further; Bank of Israel’s large reserves offer some stability.

4. Real Estate Market Slowdown

(06:46–07:54)

• After two decades of steady growth, the market sees oversupply and hesitancy due to high interest rates and wartime uncertainty.
• Buyers and developers are holding back, leading to higher rents and affordability concerns.

5. Windex Update: Winners and Losers

(08:00–12:49)

• Windex (index of Israeli-linked public companies) outperformed global indices last year but dipped slightly this week.
• Winners:
  • Nova Measurements: At a record high, +10.27%; pivotal in the semiconductor sector.
  • Elbit Systems: Israeli defense tech giant, +5.5%, strong investor interest amid global defense build-up.
• Losers:
  • Big digital companies (Wix, Pagaya, SimilarWeb, Monday.com) experiencing double-digit declines.
  • Global tech conditions and SaaS model pressures contributing.

6. Election Economics: Policy Paralysis and Populism

(12:49–25:02)

• Budget Problems:
  • Without a timely budget, government faces collapse; current budget freeze limits economic reform.
  • Yael: “A lot of the blame has to be played squarely on the shoulders of the ultra orthodox parties... kind of the elephant in the room...” (15:04)
• Reform Stagnation:
  • “We are seeing zero reforms right now.” (15:47)
  • War as justification for stalling, but hosts argue reforms are overdue.
• “Marxist” Election Spending:
  • Government proposals, such as offsetting mortgage interest increases, seen as political giveaways with little economic logic.
  • Yonatan: “This is not some third ranking, you know, member of Knesset. This is the senior economic advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel. And that is very dangerous. I hope it doesn't pass.” (19:21)
• Silent Tax Increases:
  • Tax bracket freeze equates to significant rises in tax burden for the upper middle class.
  • Yael: “This freeze is very much shrinking disposable income for working Israelis.” (21:23)

7. Uber Reform & Taxi Compensation

(21:51–25:20)

• Uber and similar rideshare services are entering the Israeli market after years of lobbying and opposition from taxi unions.
  • 4 billion shekels set aside for compensating affected taxi drivers.
• Yonatan: “So the illegitimate shared taxi is bigger than the taxi market in Israel right now.” (24:32)
• Both hosts agree the reform is long overdue, though regret that only political calculus brought it to fruition.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Yael: “You kind of gave them a carte blanche in terms of policymaking. In times of war, everything is pushed to the side... There really is kind of no excuse left on the table to not push through these reforms. And the losers are... the Israeli public.” (16:16)
• Yonatan: “We're going to see a lot of Marxist type spend that doesn't make any sense. We're not going to see big reforms and changes to the tax brackets. These are really needed.” (25:20)
• Yonatan: “If the shekel becomes too strong, you might invest your R&D dollars outside of Israel in other markets... Right.” (06:46)
• Yael: "Israeli defense tech this week especially, it was hot, hot, hot.” (09:21)
• Yael (regarding Uber compensation): "Too bad we needed to get to election year for this to finally come through." (25:20)

Important Timestamps

• 00:10 | Numbers of the Week: Crembo inflation, Uber compensation
• 03:52 | Shekel stability, export risk
• 06:46 | Real estate market trends
• 08:00 | Windex market update (Nova, Elbit, digital tech declines)
• 12:49 | Introduction to election economics and policy paralysis
• 15:04 | Budget gridlock, ultraorthodox parties’ role
• 19:21 | “Marxist” government spending: controversial mortgage proposal
• 21:23 | Silent middle-class tax hikes via bracket freeze
• 21:51 | Uber, market restructuring, underground rideshare market
• 25:20 | Summary and reform reflections

Final Segment: Words of the Week & Geopolitics

(25:53–29:57)

• Yonatan shares a quote from Senator Lindsey Graham (26:18):

  "If it is indeed accurate that the Arab response to Iran is that action is not necessary against Iran given its current outrageous slaughter of innocent people, then there will be a dramatic rethinking on my part."
  (26:18)

• Discussion on the US-Israel defense partnership – possible Israeli role in the US “Golden Dome” missile shield.
• Personal reflections on the humanitarian crisis in Iran and the somber international response.

Overall Tone

Lively, informed, and candid, the hosts blend macro-level analysis with relatable, real-world anecdotes. The conversation flows naturally, moving between numbers-driven discussion and sharp critique of policy and politics, enriched by personal perspectives and occasional humor.

Takeaways

• Israel’s economy is under pressure from both global dynamics and internal political gridlock.
• Election year stalls substantive reforms and encourages short-term, populist financial moves.
• Large-scale market reforms (Uber, real estate, defense tech investments) remain rare but impactful, often driven by political expediency rather than public interest.
• Everyday Israelis are feeling the squeeze, symbolized by everything from a pricey Crembo to shrinking disposable income through tax policy.
• Geopolitics continues to shape the economic horizon, with shifting alliances and regional tensions ever-present.