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Foreign.
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You are listening to an art media podcast.
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All right, so, Yael, what's your number?
B
My number is 40. And it would usually be fitting this time of year to talk about 40 years in the desert, Moses and such. Passover. We've all been through this in the last week, but actually what we're really talking about, or what I'm really talking about is 40 nights of sitting in shelters and hopefully I'm going to knock on wood and everyone can do what they need to do is the end of sitting in shelters for a while, at least for the next two weeks. According to the newly implemented ceasefire deal. This should mean a quiet next two weeks, which for me also means back to school, back to work, back to. For the Israeli economy to kind of kickstart what it's been trying to do. Despite it all. This, I want to make sure that everybody understands does not so far seem to be the same for the north of Israel. Lebanon's in the ceasefire, not in the ceasefire. Depending on you ask. The President has made it very clear it is not part of the ceasefire deal and hopefully they will be able to sleep through the night very soon. Yonatan, what's yours?
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Mine is 400,400 6,778 km to be exact. That is the Artemis mission that broke the record for the farthest human trip in space yesterday. This is a critical moment for humanity. We are in the process. And if you consider the fact that in a couple of weeks SpaceX will go for a near $2 trillion IPO, humanity is finally commercializing near space. This is a very meaningful development for humanity, for business, for finance. But it is also very important for Israel if it manages to capture this opportunity. We are one in only nine countries that is able to launch into space on our own in an independent way and control the entire vertical of value creation. So while we're busy with what's going on on specifically today, things are happening outside of the Iran war and they present Israel with some interesting opportunities.
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I'm going to give you the win. You know, call it escapism or whatever it is. Let's go for science for today.
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We have to get out of Earth as far as possible to kind of forget a bit about what's going on right now. All right, I'll take the win. Let's go. It is 9pm on Wednesday, April 8, here in Tel Aviv.
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Yes, and I am also here in Tel Aviv, but after many days in the desert, far in the desert, we talked about Moses. I was kind of right around in that neighborhood.
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Yeah. Look, we're less than 24 hours after the ceasefire was declared, eating Hamet as of an hour ago, trying to make sense of it all. We're going to try and focus today on, you know, what seems to be the peace, the silver bullet, if you will, that made it possible for the US and Iran to come to terms on this ceasefire. And that's the Strait of Hormuz.
B
As I mentioned, I was just in the desert and as we left the desert, a bunch of families all together camping out. Everyone was very happy to hear about the ceasefire. As you heard in my number, we're all excited to go back to sleeping in our beds. But as we drove the four or five hours it took to come back to the center of Israel, every hour we heard the news and every news hour kind of had a little bit of skepticism in the strength of the ceasefire. It started very strong. And as we got into the evening, we heard about missiles in Kiryat Shmona. We heard about reporters asking, kind of confirming with the President that Lebanon is included. We heard the Prime Minister confirming that Lebanon is not included. It feels very fragile right now.
A
Yeah. And I think this sort of sets the tone to today's episode. Today we have a conversation about whether or not the fact that Hormuz and the sort of violent takeover by Iran and the weaponization of Hormuz goes beyond a short term win for the Islamic Republic.
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But first, as usual, we're going to take a quick look at some of the week's pressing news, AKA our big shorts. And of course, the latest update on the Windex. The what's your number index that tracks the performance of publicly traded Israeli based or founded companies. All right, let's kick things off with this week's Windex. Yonatan, how's it looking?
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So the Windex is in the high greens again with 8.69% green growth for the period. The Windex bait both S and P and Nasdaq. The period is between March 30 and April 8. We are witnessing a market comeback. This is yet another Trump bump overall in New York City as it reflects the overall optimism for what seems to be cessation of violence. At the very least, I would say that when I calculated the Windex today, I saw that we're back to positive territory on the Windex year to date, while S and P and Nasdaq are still in the red from January 1, 2026. So nice to see the Windex bouncing back and beating not just on the week or Two weeks, but year to date. So notables in the green. That's actually a first one leading the green. That's Gilat Satellite Networks, a veteran Israeli company in the stock exchange in New York jumping 19.75% on the period due to new contracts that were declared north of cumulative value of about $100 million. I also spoke to some industry insiders today to sort of validate the reasoning behind this Is also part of this expected SpaceX IPO. We're seeing companies in the space data center domain raising capital. So this seems to be a new sort of category taking shape in Wall Street. And this week Gilat, an Israeli company, wins some of this positive dynamic.
B
We know what's happening with Artemis, we know what's happening with SpaceX. This sounds like a good kind of safe bet.
A
I think overall the promise of near space has been out there for a while. We've seen SpaceX take over. This is this number, this is craz. 85% of the US objects launched to space in 2025 were launched by SpaceX. 85%. This is a 15 year old company. Right. We saw Jensen Wang a couple of weeks ago at the annual summit for Nvidia talking about specific chipsets that Nvidia is going to create for data centers in space. So you know, you're starting to see the supply chain also coming together. So I think that's a very strong narrative taking shape with that.
B
Let's go to one that has trouble right now with its narrative.
A
Exactly. Leading to the red. Missing out on the action are WIX and Lemonade. Now lemonade is shedding 4.4%. Wix is down 7.06% after we saw it rise and kind of recover ground due to its north of $1 billion share buyback. Once the buyback was over, we're seeing WIX again in decline, 1 billion plus dollars less in their war chest. And they're going to have the next quarterly report for WIX is going to be very, very important either to see them recover and starting a rally or we're going to see them entering quite a problematic area. I think it's going to be very hard for WIX to kind of convince the market yet again that it can withstand the headwinds that AI is bringing forward. I don't want to see them in the same territory as Fiverr is, but we. This is sort of bears a resemblance and kind of an indicator of what happens when the market loses trust that you can withstand that headwind and then
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you can see that it is driven a lot by narratives. If Gilat Satellite Networks was riding this global space narrative and Elbit, which is also in the green this week, driven mainly, I think, by geopolitics for a while now. The core SAS names are still recovering from a very doubtful question around how they'll use AI. As you say, let's go to big shorts.
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All right, so I have two big shorts today. Curious to hear your thoughts. The first actually unfolding today, Anthropic introducing its new model called Mythos and kind of telling everybody, look, this one is so strong, we're not releasing it because it can discover so many zero day vulnerabilities in standardized infrastructure that we're not going to release it because this would make a hacker's life so easy as it pertains to also banking infrastructure and others. They've created what they call the Glasswing Project. They've invited north of 40 major companies in the software space to kind of scratch their heads together and think through, you know, what are we doing with this new incredible animal that we created? I think this is very much sort of like an Oppenheimer moment, right? The atom bomb is now visible in its digital form. Luckily, by the way, given the severity of that and the focus of the administration out of Washington to make sure that this moment doesn't happen in China first. Well, at least the first indication is that it does happen in the US for a US company. And it seems like Anthropic is behaving responsibly. This is critical for Israel, it's critical for the Israeli cyberspace companies because this may indeed level the playing field on one scenario and the other scenario, you could say no, actually. If zero day can be discovered so easily, then only those cyber companies that can really deliver the top, the elite, the Palo Altos and so on, are going to actually enjoy a bigger total addressable market. Both arguments are fair, but this is indeed an Oppenheimer moment in AI and in cyberspace. Very happy to see this happening in the US and not in China at this point.
B
Yes, and calling it this Oppenheimer moment is kind of a framing is interesting what it when it is absolutely impactful for Israeli cyber. But it also kind of highlights that while the US is recognizing that this is just as an innovation, it's a strategic part of his infrastructure, despite kind of the back and forth that Anthropic had with the government there. The question for Israel then is very clear. It's like starkingly clear all of a sudd. Do we stay at the application layer or are we going to actually start competing at the level where these foundational capabilities are being built? And I have full disclosure. I work for a cyber company and I think the companies are at the forefront of this. But I'm wondering if the Israeli state and government and infrastructure is at that same pace. And I think the jury is still out whether Israel is doing enough from a national level and strategic level long term to adopt AI as part of infrastructure.
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Well, at least the market is performing well for Palo Alto and the cyber companies today. It seems like the market is feeling strong about the leaders actually enjoying a bigger, total addressable market. We should be shouting out to the folks at Wiz and at Armis for concluding their big exits on time before this thing takes place. And I think again, both companies, ServiceNow, who bought Armis, and Google, who bought Wiz, really have played their hand in a clever way, because I think both companies have foundational, as you refer to those foundational capabilities are going to become handy both for ServiceNow and for Google. For me, the second big short, and we can keep it very short. I just finished reading sort of the headlines of the budget that passed a couple of weeks ago. The education budget, which is the second largest budget in Israel, is nearing 100 billion shekels, 97 billion to be exact. And I have to say this is a waste of money giving this industry, this segment of Israeli public sector, more and more money without a reform. A critical, radical reform is throwing money into the fire. This piece of the sort of public sphere in Israel underperformed throughout those 40 days in which we were both and our families and the entire country in shelters seeking to see some kind of an evolution from the formal public education system. And we saw none. It is the informal, less formal, more distributed education system that rose to the occasion. And I feel that the next Minister of Education, come January, January must be the Minister of Education of the strike, as opposed to the one that just gives more money to this animal that clearly is underperforming to the extent that is just. It's like one giant bonfire of taxpayer money.
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We talk about this a lot offline. I totally agree. And I think it's also not. It doesn't discredit what you just said. I think it mostly enforces it. A budget is a pie. And when you give part of the pie to something that's not working and you give another part of the pie to other things that aren't working, I think you're right that in the 40 days of war was like a good kind of litmus test. Have we gotten anywhere? Have we done anything? Have we improved? And the answer is a resounding no. But I feel that the budget being passed kind of in that overnight. We spoke a lot about the budget, pre war and kind of the consequences, what would happen if it wasn't passed. So there's no danger it's been passed. Elections will not be held earlier, but it was passed with a lot of inconsistencies with what is really needed in my mind for Israel's future for the next short term, but very much so for the long term as well. And I said that politely.
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Yeah. All right, let's move on.
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Let's go to the long play. So today we're going to talk about the future of Hormuz. Obviously, we've been speaking about it quite a lot in the past few weeks, but if you stick only to the headlines, it looks like a very short term win for Iran, but is it really a long term loss for Iran? So I want to explore with you the dynamics around what seems to be the main lever that brought about the ceasefire. Because Hormuz was Iran's counterpunch. It was really kind of the thing it was holding closest to its chest that the Iranians used in this war, because it really was kind of choked the entire world. And at face value, it seems to have worked.
A
I think you're totally right. This one really worked in the short term, both in terms of the violence that it extracted regionally, as well as in the sort of lack of ability of Washington to create the coalition, and lack of willingness of countries that were really, really hurt by this, not the us, not Israel, to fail to step up and step forward. And I think the compounding effect of all these dynamics really allowed for Iran to win in pulling this lever of its economic warfare. I think it begs the question, we'll talk about that in the next 10, 15 minutes. What does that mean going forward? Because it seems like the. The Iranian regime wants to describe this as a big win compared to five weeks ago. Right? Five weeks ago we didn't have that. Now we have that control over Hormuz. I want to argue that I think it's a Pyrrhic victory. I think they have turned the hourglass, if you will, on the necessity and the value of this lever in acting so aggressively in creating that decision point, that choke point that drove the Americans to accept the current ceasefire.
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So we're gonna have to have some kind of being created.
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Right?
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Give me an outline of what that alternative could look like.
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So I think first and foremost, let's talk about hormones, right? So hormones. Through hormones we have about 20% of the world's natural gas and its derivatives and gasoline, oil, right? That is crude and refined, passed through, right? So 20% is a lot. And this begs the question, right? Is hormones like Suez Canal? Is it like Panama, is it like Malacca, you know, around Singapore, which is critical for China, Europe, shipping? The answer is no, right? Because Hermos is critical because you got to go in to pick some stuff and go out. You always go in and out. Whereas in Suez you have to. Or in Panama you're going, you have to kind of pass through to get from point A to point B. Hormuz is not like that. Therefore, it's far weaker, geographically speaking, geopolitically. Because if you can get the stuff you need to get without going in, then the fact that it's locked on its way out or on its way in doesn't really matter. So I think this is what we're going to start seeing, seeing, evolving. And again, I'll follow your lead, but I can make the argument through four key alternatives that are being built in parallel that in essence, within three to four years are going to completely reduce, diminish the strength of this lever by 75 to 80%.
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Take me through that.
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There are four alternatives. Main one is the East West Saudi pipeline that delivered 7 million barrels per day taken from the Gulf to the Red Sea to Yanbu port and taking 7 million barrels. That's 70% of Saudi Arabia's production and export. So we already had, from the 20%, right, already seven taken off through an alternative pipeline. Now imagine we had two more that would account for 15 million barrels or 17, then that would have taken that counterpunch as you've described. It would have made it 80% less effective. So I think point one is alternative routes. These are pipelines, by the way. This cannot be trucks, it cannot be trains. Just to give the figure here, a VLCC tanker which carries about 1 million barrels of oil is equivalent to 12 or 13,000 trucks that carry oil. Right? Just the math doesn't work on, you know, you can't do this on wheels. That just doesn't work. So you gotta have a pipeline. The Saudis show the way. And I think that is incredibly, incredibly effective. So that's path number one. It's already there for about 70% of the Saudi oil, let's call it more or less 40% of the total output that goes through Hormuz in any given day. So that was already taken care of during the war. It's gonna take three to four years to multiply. If you finance it the right way. That's one by the way in brackets. This can also connect to Qatar, the Israeli pipeline get all the way to Ashkelon or Ashdo. That's famously known as the IMEC piece. But for that, Saudi Arabia needs to agree, there needs to be normalization. So let's just park that outside. So that's piece number one. Piece number two is the port of Fujairah. So the UAE was clever enough back in the day to create another port with redundancy which is in Fujairah. It's southeast of the Oman tip of the Hormuz Strait. So it's basically outside in the Indian Ocean, if you will. And it does not require ships to go through Hormuz that can do 2 to 3 million barrels per day. Today can do a lot more. The issue there was no one even dreamt of Iran being so violent. So the anti air missile infrastructure was so rudimentary, basic, even below right that it failed to capture the rockets and the drones that came from Iran. Everybody was defending other areas, that is Dubai per se, Abu Dhabi and others. We left Fujairah alone. Fujairah with a strong air defense that is an equivalent of an arrow or an equivalent of an iron dome. And David's sling can withstand because it is vast, it is far enough to withstand an attack. So Fujairah is number two. So we have alternative pipelines. That's one. We already saw those in action. We have Fujira. We also saw this one in action because somewhere around week three, Fujairah recovered. It got air defense through the Americans and through other efforts and quite became resilient and delivered. The third is natural gas outside of the Gulf. And I think here we have an American powerhouse. And this was done before when Russia took over Ukraine, the war began. We saw 350% spike in the cost of natural gas. Europe had it really well with the Russian pipelines. And then Qatar and the U.S. stepped up to replace Russia. The U.S. in a decade. This is crazy. This is from end of the Obama administration. The beginning of the first Trump era made a decision to be energy dominant. Not just energy independent, energy dominant. It is today the biggest producer of natural gas and oil. Last week in Texas alone, The government approved 11 new natural gas producing facilities are already underway. The approval is for the last phase. Those 11 alongside another approval from last week which is the liquefication terminal in the Gulf. Of Mexico. That's on the path of getting America from 125,130bcm per year to 150 billion. Not only that, America is already now bigger than Qatar. If it manufactures 150 billion, it can account for Korea, Taiwan. So it can actually take the supply exactly like what it did in Europe when it took the supply away from Russia. It can mitigate supply shocks coming from Hormuz and from Qatar. I'm not sure Qatar is very happy when they see that. Right, so that's the third piece. The fourth is nuclear energy. Everybody's going back to nuclear energy. Taiwan, which a few months ago closed its last mainland electricity production site, is now mulling. Going back. Japan just opened, just reopened, we should say a 9 gigawatt, the biggest electric nuclear power plant in the world, a few months ago. Europe has decided to produce about 40% of its energy from nuclear within a decade. So money going back, regulation going back, and so on. So when you add the cumulative effect, pipelines like the east, west and Fujairah, which you already saw during the war, reduced the effect of the closing of hormones by 50%. So it's not 20, but it's actually 10% that was hurt. Nuclear energy and US gas. I think we're going to see hormonals being less of an effective lever within three to five years. Is it enough? Three to five years? We can debate the timeframe, but I think those four are already underway. Crystal clear. No doubt the world is not going back to statusical ante when it comes to Hormuz.
B
But still, as you said yourself, this is going to take three to five years. What happens in the interim? As you said yourself, Fujara can still be targeted by the Houthis. And if I had to put a bet on it, Iran would still supply countries that it's in good relations with to its east.
A
Sure. So I think the question of whether or not Iran supplies. Different question. It has to do with sanctions and enforcement. There's also a question of, you know, will Iran be able to toll right at Hormuz as a source of income? Probably in the short term that may be possible. By the way, I was briefing senior folks today, there's a new term people need to get to know and you'll see it in the news in the next, I think, I bet next 72, 96 hours. It's called UNCLOSS. UNCLOS. That is the UN sort of law of the open seas. You're not allowed to toll in an open seas. You're allowed in Suez because it's man made, but as long as it's natural, you're not allowed to call it your own. Guess who's not signatory to the pact? It's the US and it is Iran who signed but never ratified. Right. So there's going to be a whole issue here around enclos. So there's a question on tolling. I think that is really insignificant in terms of when you weigh that against the damage to the Iranian economy. They need to toll a lot of ships for many years to recover that. I think the bottom line here is I agree 3 to 5 years is a long time, but in the greater scheme of things, pricing power is going to go down very fast because, and we just saw today, India Prime Minister Modi announced that the government is financing the closing of India's biggest refinery. So India doesn't want to be dependent anymore on refined oil. They're going to finish the construction in 2026 and start producing early 2027. That's going to account for 26% of India's refined oil and products derivatives also allowing them to export if they so choose. So I think everybody's going to have a more elastic supply chain when it comes to that and Hormuz is going to suffer. And I think, you know, just to give you and to our listeners an example, just a recent one. For 20 years, the world chose to be knowingly dependent on the Chinese for rare earths. Right? Everybody was there because it's too expensive to produce. The Capex is big, it's polluting. Because no one imagined that China will one day press the button and say, screw you guys, there's an export ban, which they did nine months ago.
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Right.
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And once they did that and by the way, folded the Americans in terms of tariffs and so on, America said, okay, we get it. Europe said, okay, we get it. America just passed a bill called the Strategic Minerals Act. Europe is doing something similar. I think China's going to wake up to a reality three years, four years from now that it's not a monopoly on rare earth. It's going to still be a big player. Iran may be a big player in oil and so on, but when it comes to that, I think the rare earth dynamic is a great indication of where we can go with Hormuz.
B
How dependent do you think this is on the political leadership of the great powers? Right now we have, call it what you will, symbolic relationship between India, Modi and Trump in the US And Netanyahu even in Israel and so forth. When that changes, and that will change in the next three to five years, what happens?
A
Yeah, I think it's a great point and I think, to be very frank on that, I think a lot of the axioms we were used to when it comes to geopolitics and sort of have expired. Like we still don't get it because they're still here. There is still un, blah, blah, there is Arab League. So on. The fact that Pakistan has ushered in this agreement is so frowned upon in New Delhi. This is going to have a huge ripple effect. Right. We still don't know what sort of, what the Saudi arc of strategy is going to look like. Is it going to bend over to China? Is it not? It's clear that what worked so far has expired, even if we have a few more months in which it all kind of looks the same. And with that, I think I'll conclude with one point before we adjourn, sort of this piece. Pay attention to a far more important thing when it comes to Iran. Hormuz is not going to be the one. If Iran is allowed post sanctions and everything, to realize the potential of its natural gas fields that are under its own soil, I think that's like 22%, 23%, last time I checked, of the global reserve. That's bigger than Russia, it's bigger than Qatar. That in and of itself is like a trillion, $2 trillion worth of longevity to their economy. So I think that's where we should focus. And if I sort of have my eyes open to Friday when the negotiation starts, the nuclear facilities and all of that is a must. But the relaxation of sanctions for natural gas exploration, that's going to be a big issue. And again, the order of things, you know, between Saudi, Qatar, that's also expired, we're going to see the whole thing realigned.
B
Well, lucky us, we have you on for next week to make sure that everything you say here happens. And in three to five years, the listeners and I will hunt you down and make sure that this is exactly what's going to happen. We need, we need some light at the end of the tunnel here and. Okay, so just to wrap this up, if we look into the insurmountable gaps between Iran's conditions to end the war, war versus the US's conditions, could it be really that this ceasefire is not really a ceasefire aimed at resolving the conflict, but really just a congestion relief operation? It certainly looks like that from the headlines. To unclog the straits, unleash the ships, flood the markets with oil, gas Helium, fertilizer, all the rest, everything we've spoken about. And then when the negotiations ultimately collapse, we're going to resume the war, giving the President a few more weeks to proceed with the. The battle of Hormuz.
A
I think it does make sense. This is a sensitive window, but it is a sensitive window also because there's one thing we don't control, and that's the planting cycle. In the Midwest, that is corn. In Punjab, Gujarat, those areas, it is rice. The circle of the year when it comes to weather, planting and agriculture and our food security globally in terms of inflation is, you know, non conditional. So there is a speculation that this window also allows beyond the trafficking hormones, it also allows for the President to reduce pressure on this sort of inflationary play that always has a lag time. It will show up in a month or so. But those who are in business and the lobbyists are well aware of what that does to the planting cycle of rice, corn and others. So I think, yeah, that's definitely there. It's an issue and that's something we're going to have to look for. To me, the first indication of is this sort of like a distraction aimed at getting two more weeks for the U.S. remember, Iran, until less than 24 hours ago, refused to this very formula of an interim ceasefire that would include a release of hormones and so on. And they apparently also responded well to the President's ultimatum. So I think what do we do with the ultimatum? What do we do with the two weeks that we want that have ramifications on planting and inflation? When it comes to food security, we'll know probably around early morning Eastern time on Friday or late afternoon Islamabad, when we see who came to negotiate, Is it Calibaf? Is it VP Vance who showed up? And what is being discussed? Is it the 15 points, the 10 points? Is there truly an agreement around no. Enrichment and removal of the enriched uranium will be a lot smarter on Friday night. But I do agree with you that these two weeks are critical and they serve a purpose in and of themselves.
B
Absolutely. Well, we'll be here next week with all the facts and trying to. We're living it and also analyzing it. It's quite crazy. All right, let's go to the words of the week.
A
All right, so a lot of chatter, a lot of words over the last 24 hours that could have made it to the words of the week. I chose the ones by Secretary of War Pete Hagseth. The reason I chose those is because the institutional power of the Pentagon in the US Administration Even a decade from now is very, very important in terms of what Israel is going to have to deal with vis a vis the next president or the next administration that might be a bit less positive or inclined towards Israel geopolitical initiatives and posture. And in that case, it is important for folks to understand how fundamental and how unique the collaboration we say shoulder to shoulder, more like wing to wing dynamics that happened between Israel and the US over the last five weeks. And this is how the Secretary chose to summarize his press conference today as he framed the ceasefire to the listeners and to the press corps. To our Israeli allies, thank you for being a brave, capable and willing ally on this battlefield. The rest of the world and the rest of our so called allies saw what real capabilities look like. They should take notes. And I think that is a very powerful statement goes beyond Secretary Hegseth again to the institutional power that the Pentagon has in the overall scheme of things, the envelope of the President of the US and anticipating what may be a bit more challenging presidencies down the line over the next decade. This is not just niceties, this is a very important source of strength for Israel to continue to maintain, enjoy prosperity of this incredible alliance that it forged with the U.S. absolutely.
B
And I don't want to end this episode without noting the four Israeli that were murdered by Iranian missile in Haifa this week. The husband and wife, Vladimir Gurshowitz and Linos Ostrovsky Gorshowitz, their son Dima Gershowitz and Dima's wife, Lucille Jane Gershowitz. An incredible family account by all, all who knew them, including ministers in the government who knew them from like Zaev Elkin who mentioned knowing the kind of Ukrainian immigrants that moved to Israel and made such a incredible impact on everyone that they met. Lucille was also my youngest son's nursery school teacher and I had the opportunity to meet her and love her and she loved my so much and all the other children. And it's kind of like the, the things about war you kind of don't talk about most often. And, and it's important to remember all four of them. When a missile hit their building in, in Haifa, Dima and his wife Lucille had been just going there to bring the father Vladimir home from the hospital and didn't have enough time to go into a safe room. They were in the stairwell and that's when the tragic hit happened. Well, that is the price of war that often we don't speak about. And I wanted to make sure that we have the time to make sure that their names will be remembered.
A
All right, so that's it for today's show. Thank you for tuning in. Dark Media's what's your number? We hope you found it interesting and if you did, be sure to like, subscribe, rate, review. You know the drill. Most importantly, share it with others who you think will find it interesting. If you want to make suggestions or share feedback, please reach out to us us at what's your number? @arc media.org.
B
What's your number is an ARC Media podcast. Arc Media's executive producer is Adam James Levin. Already our production manager is Brittany Cohen. ARC's community manager is Ava Weiner. Sound and video editing is by Liquid Audio. Our theme music is by Midnight Generation. I am Yael Wissner Levy.
A
I'm Jonathan Adiri. I will stand the trial of the listeners next week and the following one for my predictions with great humility. Yeah.
B
See you back here next week.
A
See you next week. This podcast offers general business and economic information and is not a comprehensive summary for investment decisions. It does not recommend or solicit any investment strategy or security.
Podcast: What’s Your Number? (Ark Media)
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Yael Wissner-Levy
Air Date: April 9, 2026
This week, Yonatan and Yael dissect the recently implemented ceasefire between the US and Iran, focusing on the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz. They explore whether Iran's apparent victory is actually a long-term liability, while weaving in updates on the Israeli economy, AI developments, and shifting global energy and security dynamics. The episode blends somber wartime reflections with sharp economic and geopolitical analysis, keeping a grounded yet forward-looking tone.
“It feels very fragile right now.” (03:16)
On the ceasefire and conflicting statements from Israeli leadership.
"I want to argue that I think it's a Pyrrhic victory. I think they have turned the hourglass …on the necessity and the value of this lever…” (14:11)
“I think everybody’s going to have a more elastic supply chain…” – Yonatan (22:45)
On SpaceX and Near Space:
On AI Risks:
On Iranian Leverage:
On Global Adaptation After War Shock:
On Israeli–US Military Alliance:
Yael pauses to remember the personal costs of war, honoring the Gurshowitz family killed by a missile in Haifa.
The episode mixes analytical rigor with conversational warmth, balancing macroeconomic, geopolitical, and personal reflections. Both hosts draw frequent, accessible analogies (e.g., Moses and desert wanderings, Oppenheimer) while maintaining a global perspective anchored in Israeli realities.