Podcast Summary: What's Your Number?

Episode: How Israel's 2025 Economy Defied Expectations – with Natti Ginor
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Michal Lev-Ram
Guest: Natti Ginor (Head of Israel Investment Banking, Jefferies)
Date: December 17, 2025

Overview

This episode analyzes how Israel’s economy unexpectedly soared to become the third-best performing economy worldwide in 2025, despite a year marked by war, tragedy, and uncertainty. Hosts Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram discuss global Jewish solidarity, innovation in tech and defense, and market performance. The highlight is an in-depth conversation with Natti Ginor, who unpacks new data about Israeli tech, capital flows, and what’s driving the nation’s economic resilience and risks.

Main Themes

• Israel’s Economic Resilience Amid Crisis: How economic indicators defied predictions in a year of conflict.
• Global and Domestic Investment in Israeli Tech: Data on capital raising, M&A, and the diversification of the tech sector.
• The Strategic Importance of Israel’s Tech Stack: Focus on silicon, AI, and defense industries.
• Risks and Opportunities: Internal challenges, social cohesion, and the impact of the strong Shekel.

Opening Numbers & Reflections (00:10–03:06)

• Yonatan’s Number: “Three” – Israel ranked as the third-best performing economy globally in 2025, per The Economist.
  • “Frankly, I did not have this one on my bingo card…” (00:14)
• Michal’s Number: “99,999” – Dollars donated by Bill Ackman to a Muslim man who stopped an ISIS terror attack in Australia.
  • “Maybe this is a little bit of light in the darkness here.” (00:39)

Reflection: Both hosts reflect on Hanukkah in the shadow of global attacks and the sense of global Jewish peoplehood, expressing gratitude for worldwide support and unity, particularly after October 7th.

Israel's Unique Role in Global Tech (03:06–06:06)

• Pax Silica Alliance: U.S.-led coalition (including Israel) for semiconductor and AI security.
  • “Israel is in this group. And it’s great to see Israel punching above its weight…” – Yonatan (03:49)
• Israeli Tech Innovations: Israeli company Lumos supplies optics for Ray-Ban Meta glasses, showing Israel’s deep integration in global product pipelines.
  • “Super exciting to see a 25-year-old company...contributing to one of the more exciting...consumer products out there.” – Yonatan (05:35)

Market Update: Windex & Sector Snapshots (08:34–13:31)

• Windex Performance: Down 0.8%, but outperforming NASDAQ.

• Elbit Systems: Up nearly 100% this year, exemplifying strength in Israeli defense tech.

  • “Israeli Defense Tech...is now a $24 billion company.” – Yonatan (09:33)

• Warnings of Future Competition: Growing defense budgets in Germany and Europe will pose intense competition by 2030.

• Other Companies:

  • Varonis: Recovering after volatility.
  • Zim & Etoro: Facing declines; Etoro down 40% since IPO.

Contextual Note: IPOs and market movements reflect broader fintech and crypto industry trends.

Featured Interview: Natti Ginor — Jefferies (14:04–31:36)

Natti’s “Numbers” (14:32)

• 308: Global institutional investors who traveled to Israel for Jefferies’ Tech Trek in September, from 15 countries, “despite the challenges and the logistics.”
• 15: Number of represented countries.

Key Takeaways from Jefferies' Report (15:21–18:49)

(1) Capital Flows:

• $13B+ raised by private Israeli companies in 2025, exceeding 2024 and even 2020 levels (excluding the anomalous 2021).
• “Israeli tech ecosystem...is much more impacted by global macro trends...than it is about geopolitical trends as it relates to Israel.” – Natti (15:38)

(2) M&A Activity:

• 2024: $16B in M&A; 2025 YTD: $15B closed transactions (excluding deals still in motion, e.g., Wiz).

(3) Sector Diversification:

• 39% of capital is still concentrated in cyber, but Israel is steadily diversifying into AI, defense, and fintech.
• Defense tech investment nearly doubled from $165M in 2024 to $317M in 2025.

“Israel is kind of skating where the puck is going...In all the areas that are most important—cyber, AI, defense technology—Israel is...punching above its weight.” – Natti (18:22)

(4) Israeli Tech Maturity:

• Israeli companies are becoming acquirers, not only targets—examples include Rapid acquiring PAYU and the Matrix–Magic merger (creating the 8th largest global IT services company at $4.3B).

Israel’s Position in AI (20:26–21:39)

• Too Early to Call Absolute Leadership: Israel excels at integrating AI into enterprise applications but faces stiff competition globally.
  • “Israel is doing a better job than a lot of other places in integrating AI...but it’s too early to call whether [we’re] ahead or behind the curve in the sector.” – Natti

Investment Risk Factors (21:39–23:25)

• Markets Prefer Bad News over Uncertainty: Investors were more hesitant during Israel’s judicial reform period (uncertainty) than during immediate conflict.
  • “Markets take bad news really well and digest it. They take uncertainty very poorly.” – Natti

Broader Economic Fundamentals (24:05–28:25)

• Surprise Strength: The Shekel, Tel Aviv indices, and major financial institutions (banks) surpassed expectations:
  • Israeli banks: 16–18% return on equity, world-leading efficiency.
  • $2.4B foreign flows into TASE (Tel Aviv Stock Exchange) in 2025.
• Liquidity Initiatives: TASE moving to Monday–Friday trading, introducing market-making to attract more global capital.
• The Strong Shekel—A Blessing & Challenge: Enables Israelis to consider emigration (higher purchasing power abroad), creating social cohesion risks.

“If you just sell your house in Tel Aviv for the shekel amount, you live a very nice life in Greece...cost of living dynamic looks completely different.” – Yonatan (27:10)

Optimism for the Future (29:01–31:19)

• 2025 Headline: “Just getting started (again).”
• Shifting Investor Profiles: Despite some European hesitation, there’s increased “mission-driven” investment—especially from diaspora Jewry and high-profile global investors (Bill Ackman, Jared Kushner).
• Connectivity with Asia: Stronger ties with India and Singapore strengthen optimism for continued growth.

“I fundamentally believe we can have a period of incredible prosperity going forward.” – Natti (31:17)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “There’s no precedent for a country going through a war...and out-performing almost all other countries and economies in the world during the war.”
  – Yonatan (00:22)
• “Conflict in Israel is not something [markets] can’t look back at...and see exactly how the market recovers. And in fact, it does.”
  – Natti (22:21)
• “We are a victim of our own success in that regard, for sure.”
  – Natti (28:20)
• “I have no doubt that those that are engaged are engaged, that those that are temporarily disengaged will re-engage.”
  – Natti (30:27)

Heartfelt Ending: Words of the Week (34:03–36:08)

• Noa Al-Gammani (girlfriend of freed Nvidia employee/hostage Avinatan):
  • “Seeing how the company stood by him the entire time shows us what true mutual responsibility really means...Not something Nvidia needed to do, but they did it.” (34:41)
• Nvidia’s Continued Commitment:
  • Company to double workforce in Israel to 10,000 by 2027, builds major HQ.
  • Yunatan: “It takes a Jensen Huang...to appreciate the grit and resilience of Israel and to side with it so openly.” (35:42)

Conclusion & Tone

• The episode balances realism and optimism; acknowledging social, political, and economic risks while underscoring Israeli resilience, innovation, and the unifying power of global Jewish identity and mission-driven investment.

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Description | Timestamp | |--------|-------------|-----------| | Opening Numbers & Reflections | Global ranking, Jewish solidarity post-Australia attack | 00:10–03:06 | | Pax Silica/Tech Alliances | Semiconductor, AI, and Israel’s role | 03:06–06:06 | | Market Update: Windex | Defense and fintech market trends | 08:34–13:31 | | Interview: Natti Ginor | Investment flows, market resilience, future risks | 14:04–31:36 | | Tech Sector Insights | Cyber, AI, biotech challenges | 17:16–21:39 | | Economic Fundamentals | Shekel, TASE performance, liquidity | 24:05–28:25 | | Optimism/Wrap-Up | Mission-driven investment, regional ties | 29:01–31:19 | | Words of the Week | Nvidia’s support for hostages & Israeli resilience | 34:03–36:08 |

The Bottom Line

2025 was a year of paradox: war and tragedy alongside unprecedented economic achievement. The consensus—from data, anecdotes, and leadership alike—is that Israel’s exceptionalism remains shaped by its innovation, adaptability, and the evolving strength of both its economy and its global community.

“Just getting started, again.” – Natti Ginor (29:02)