Podcast Summary: What's Your Number?

Episode: Israel's Exposure to the AI Bubble

Date: November 12, 2025
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Michal Lev-Ram
Podcast: What’s Your Number? by Ark Media

Episode Overview

This episode tackles Israel’s exposure to the global "AI bubble" and analyzes whether the recent tech market downturn signifies the beginning of an AI "deflation" or simply a temporary "wobble." Hosts Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram blend global market analysis with Israeli economic focus, assessing how recent AI-driven stock market events, policy changes, and international developments impact Israel’s economy and tech sector. Alongside, they discuss broader geopolitical shifts, labor market trends, and Israel's strategic positioning in global AI and technology.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Numbers of the Week: Infrastructure & Immigration Policy (00:10–01:28)

• Yonatan’s Number: $20 billion – the first tender for the Greater Gush Dan (Tel Aviv Metro) project.
  • “This is… the biggest infrastructure project in Israel, $65 billion. So that's the first third. That's for the excavation of the tunnels… definitive for Israel's growth economically…” (A, 00:10)
• Michal’s Number: 0% – new income tax rate for immigrants and returning Israelis in 2026, designed to incentivize aliyah.
  • “This is part of a new program that's aimed to incentivize those that are thinking about making aliyah...it is a huge incentive.” (B, 00:45)

2. News Highlights: Geopolitics & Market Events (01:54–04:55)

• Tech stocks & market jitters: Noted volatility in the Nasdaq and S&P, soon to be unpacked in the context of AI.
• Kazakhstan joins the Abraham Accords:
  • “Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accord and saying we are formally on this camp, the American, Israeli, UAE, possibly Saudi camp is a big deal and it has implications for Israel in terms of economic growth.” (A, 03:32)
  • Yonatan recounts his experiences teaching in Almaty and describes the entrepreneurial, resource-driven spirit of Kazakhstan.

3. Windex Update: Israeli Stocks vs. Global Markets (05:00–10:23)

• Israeli tech stocks (Windex) weather the storm:
  • Windex fell 1.26% vs. Nasdaq’s 3.96% and S&P’s 2.23%.
  • “If there is any numeric proof that Israeli founded stocks are faring okay in the case of an AI bubble, this week's Windex is a great example.” (A, 06:35)
• Standout companies:
  • Lemonade.com and JFrog both rose over 25% due to strong quarterly reports, defying broader tech selloffs.
    • “JFrog is proving by sheer numbers, by sheer P and L. Right. That it is, you know, in high demand. Folks are using it more and more and the expansion is proving that there is great value in the JFrog toolkit...” (A, 07:39)
  • Monday.com, Nova, ICL: Monday.com down 15% due to changing models influenced by AI; Nova (semiconductor tools) down 11%, and ICL (Israel Chemicals) down 13.75% tied to regulatory/tender news (A, 09:07).

4. Big Shorts: Strategic Israeli-Indian Defense Deal & Shifting Alliances (10:23–15:02)

• A new $3.75B Israel-India defense deal exemplifies deepening strategic relationships in Asia.
  • “Israel and India, that's the core alliance that gets Israel to its hundredth year with very strong prosperity.” (A, 11:17)
• Discussion of risks in pivoting from Europe to Asia and the unshakable necessity of the U.S. relationship.
  • “I think Israel cannot afford anything that would strain the relationship with the US... the west is not in Europe... Israel, in a scenario of Israel at 100, own an amazing relationship with India, Saudi and Indonesia... I would totally advocate for that as a strategy, not at the expense of the US.” (A, 13:24)

5. Labor Markets & Productivity: The AI Opportunity (15:02–20:44)

• Goldman Sachs bullish on Israeli growth: Cites strong recovery and easing labor shortages post-ceasefire.
  • “Above potential growth in Israel of 5.4% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027...” (B, 15:55)
• AI as a productivity lever:
  • Israel’s productivity gains are tied to its young, adaptable, tech-driven workforce, with “spillover” effects to other sectors.
  • “For every 1% gain in productivity there, the spillover is massive, right? In aluminum, in real estate, in transportation, in cars, in food and so on.” (A, 19:18)
• Highlight: Israeli IRS using AI for tax fraud detection led to collection of over 14 billion shekels in two years.

6. AI “Wobble”—Is the Bubble Bursting? (22:01–30:20)

• Market correction context: AI stocks lost $800 billion in market value, with notable companies hit despite positive earnings.
  • “Eight of the biggest AI related companies… lost $800 billion on fears of an AI bubble.” (B, 22:01)
• Underlying cause: Not weak performance, but overstretched expectations and worrying comments—from CEOs, short sellers, and industry leaders—triggered the selloff.
  • Palantir, despite strong results, was shorted on valuation fears.
  • Nvidia’s CEO claimed “China is winning the AI war,” later walking back his remarks.
• Structural analysis:
  • “This is like a theater show with three acts... started seeing circular deals… Private company (OpenAI) exposed to more than $1 trillion of capex…” (A, 23:15)
  • A comparison to the autonomous driving hype/bust, suggesting AI faces immense last-mile friction in enterprise use.

Notable Quote:

"ChatGPT for you and I is great, but to get agents to work with fidelity that corporates really need is a huge difference."
— Yonatan Adiri, 23:49

7. Israel’s Strategic Position: Strengths & Vulnerabilities (28:14–35:29)

• Israel as a nimble, value-creating ecosystem rather than a direct AI “frontier model” competitor.
  • “We are far better off in being an early follower...than trying to create the [frontal leader] on our own… There shouldn't be large language models in Israel.” (A, 28:54)
• Areas of focus: Hardware, cyber, applied AI solutions—not competing with the likes of OpenAI, but enabling and fortifying the ecosystem.

Notable Quote:

“Israel should focus on the hardware vertical… Israel should focus on all the services of broader and broader, more intelligent… digital dynamics… we are far better off in kind of being an early follower, fast follower…”
— Yonatan Adiri, 28:51-29:16

8. Societal Attitude to AI: U.S. vs. Israel & the Energy Factor (30:20–35:29)

• Anecdote—Waymo’s “KitKat” incident: Reflects brewing anti-AI sentiment in U.S. (AI car kills cat ➔ memorial protest).
• Energy as AI’s bottleneck: U.S. AI data centers facing operational issues due to electricity shortages. China leaps ahead with state energy deals.
  • “We have more chips than we need. We don’t have enough electricity.” (A, 32:47)
• Israel’s advantage: Small, centralized systems (especially in education, healthcare) make AI rollouts and systemic overhauls easier and more rapid.

9. How Exposed is Israel to an AI Bubble? (35:29–36:59)

• Policy update: Government appointed an “AI czar,” and startups avoid frontier LLMs, building value add solutions instead.
  • “All AI pitches start with, we're not going to create an LLM in Israel. Therefore, my company is going to be… the interface of, which is music to my ears.” (A, 35:52)
• Relative protection: Israel’s “edge innovation” strategy and government coordination shield it from AI market excesses.

10. Words of the Week: Presidential Simplicity (36:59–39:15)

• Donald Trump on AI, at a recent press conference:

  • “No, I love AI. I think it's going to be very helpful. So many things are happening with it. In addition to which we're leading China, we're leading the world in AI.” (B quoting Trump, 36:59)

• Hosts reflect: U.S. has made strong, decisive (if imperfect) moves in AI, notably on securing international energy sources critical for future AI scale.

  “Not being able to generate energy is an AI strategy, right?...I don't disagree with the president as a snapshot, but the trend is not, I would say, positive.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 38:42

Key Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On productivity & social inclusion:
  “If the Israeli political system goes whale hunting… employment of Arab women, employment of ultra orthodox in higher numbers… we're going to see 6 to 7% growth, not just 5 or 4.7.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 17:37

• On the nature of the AI bubble:
  “This is not an AIG type dynamic. There's no too big to fail dynamic here.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 25:58

• On Israel’s tech approach:
  “We are far better off in kind of being an early follower...than trying to create the [next] Nokia or Teva.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 28:51

• On U.S. energy and AI:
  “We have more chips than we need. We don't have enough electricity.”
  — Yonatan Adiri quoting Satya Nadella, 32:47

• On adaptability:
  “Even the ultra orthodox have kosher smartphones.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 32:21

Timestamps of Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------|----------------| | Opening Numbers / Infrastructure | 00:10–01:28 | | Geopolitics & Markets Overview | 01:54–04:55 | | The Windex Israeli Stock Index | 05:00–10:23 | | India-Israel Strategic Partnership | 10:23–15:02 | | Labor Market and AI Productivity | 15:02–20:44 | | Market AI “Wobble” Breakdown | 22:01–30:20 | | Israel’s Strategic Tech Positioning | 28:14–35:29 | | Anti-AI Sentiment and U.S. Energy | 30:20–35:29 | | Israel’s AI Bubble Exposure | 35:29–36:59 | | Words of the Week (Trump on AI) | 36:59–39:15 |

Tone and Final Takeaways

In their signature analytical, conversational style, Yonatan and Michal deliver a nuanced, data-driven yet optimistic view on Israel’s resilience to the AI bubble. They highlight the country’s adaptability, focus on value-driven technology, and strategic policy orientation, providing insight for investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in the intersection of tech innovation and economic strategy. Geopolitical developments, energy challenges, and shifting alliances are woven into a narrative with both global and hyper-local relevance.