Podcast Summary: "What's Your Number?"

Episode: Israel's Post-War Economy
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri & Michal Lev-Ram
Date: October 15, 2025

Overview

This episode focuses on Israel's economic prospects as the war appears to be winding down. The hosts discuss fresh indicators of recovery, resilience in Israeli society, and what the end of the war could mean for growth, investment, and normalization in the region. The conversation is framed around the significant return of hostages after 700+ days and blends optimism with realistic assessments of Israel's post-war challenges and opportunities.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Number of the Week: 20

• Main Theme: The emotional and societal impact of 20 hostages returning after more than 700 days in captivity.
  • Yonatan: “It’s an easy one. This week it’s 20. The number that really says it all. 20 hostages…are back home as of yesterday.” [00:09]
  • Michal: “There is no other number this week." [00:27]
  • Both agree all else is secondary to this event at the present moment.

The "Fog of War" Begins to Lift

• Transition Moment: After months of uncertainty, hosts describe a shift—early signs that the fog of war is dissipating.
  • Yonatan: “We've been at this for the last couple of months talking about when will the fog of war be lifted...I think we are entering into that period as of yesterday.” [01:05]
• Historical Parallel: References to Ben Gurion’s proactive leadership after the British mandate, emphasizing the need for aggressive forward movement and introspection.
• Bright Spot: Yoel Mokir, a prominent Israeli economics professor, winning the Nobel Prize—a sign of hope and international recognition. [02:13]

Windex (What's Your Number Index) and Financial Markets [03:17]

• Performance:
  • Windex has outperformed NASDAQ and S&P for the past four periods (up 0.4%, while NASDAQ and S&P were down 1.77% and 1.6%, respectively).
• Notable Movers:
  • Compugen: Stock up 25% due to successful clinical trials.
  • VIA: A new IPO, expected to be added to the index.
  • D2C Digitals: Declines in companies like Fiverr, Wix, Lemonade, and Oddity.
    • Fiverr down 5.45%, Wix 6.84%, Lemonade over 10%, Oddity nearly 15%.
• Macro Trends:
  • NAVAN IPO delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, but regulatory workarounds may keep IPOs on track. [05:17]
• Capital Markets: Hot IPO dynamics and strong capital raising despite volatility.

Israel’s Economic Snapshot Amid War's End [06:43]

The Cost of War and Debt

• Direct Costs:
  • "The war's cost was around $110 billion over the span of two years…Israel being an economy of about $600 billion.” [06:50]
• Debt:
  • Debt-to-GDP has risen from 60% to even higher, but absorption has been effective due to concurrent engines of growth.

Resilience & Recovery Data

• Consumer Spending:
  • Credit card spending for September is 1.8% above the decade average, signaling confidence.
• Inflation:
  • At 2.9% annualized, below government expectations—a “significant win…given the challenges in the south.” [08:05]
• Labor Market:
  • “Super tight”—almost no effect on unemployment despite the war.
  • Construction remains robust even with loss of Palestinian workers.
• Tech Industry:
  • “Zero unemployment in the tech industry and actually a stronger demand... Average salary in Israeli high tech for 2025 is going to rise by 6.7%.” [09:02]
  • A strong shekel creates challenges for tech companies paying in local currency, but growth persists.

Reservists Returning & Workforce Impacts [09:54]

• Reservist Dynamics:
  • Initial call-up severely impacted top-tier earners, but current numbers (~20,000) are minor relative to total workforce (4.5 million).
  • Signs of resilience and quick societal adaptation.
  • “Israeli solidarity won big time over the last couple of years.” [10:44]
• Integration Concerns:
  • Main worry is reintegration of residents displaced from the north, especially pending diplomatic breakthroughs with Lebanon and Syria.

External Relations: Abraham Accords, Regional Normalization, BDS [12:36]

• Super Sparta vs. Athens Question:
  • Debate over Israel's future orientation—military strength vs. economic/cultural leadership.
• Normalization Moves:
  • “If…Lebanon [moves] into the kind of new rhythm of the Abraham Accords… the north would flourish.” [11:55]
• Academic Insight:
  • Neta Barak Koren previously noted BDS activity often surges post-ceasefire.
• Three Regional Watchpoints:
  1. Marginalization of anti-Israel activism: Democratic Socialist movement in the U.S. taking a harder line, but possibly being sidelined.
  2. Tourism: Will non-Jewish international visitors return? Tourism sector is “hibernating or on the verge of resuscitation.” [14:01]
  3. Turkey & Regional Diplomacy:
     • “Is there indeed a plan…to recreate a dynamic of normalization between Israel and Turkey? ...That would be, to me, an enormous sign of Israel kind of climbing back.” [14:37]
  4. Indonesia’s Diplomatic Signals:
     • Indonesia signaling potential independence from Saudi Arabia’s lead on normalization. "We are the largest Islamic...country...Traditionally we have seconded our diplomatic voice…Well, not anymore" [16:22]
  5. Exports:
     • Potential to double exports between India, Indonesia, and U.S. in 7–8 years.

Closing on a Human Note: The Nvidia Hostage Story [17:47]

• Avinatan O.:
  • An Nvidia employee kept in captivity for 738 days, with the company’s global CEO Jensen Huang mentioning him in quarterly meetings, and HR sending weekly reminder emails.
  • "I hope you have a good excuse for not showing up to work at Nvidia for 738 days...Even the global CEO, Jensen Huang, mentioned your name in every quarterly internal meeting, telling 40,000 employees that their colleague was being held captive by Hamas. How wonderful that you've returned home." [17:47]
• Reflection:
  • Emblematic of solidarity, resilience, and the ability to find humor even in difficult moments.
    • Michal: "It just captures the mood, the ability to still find humor in this, you know, incredibly joyous but bittersweet also moment." [18:57]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the significance of the week:
  • "At this point in time, everything is secondary and the rest is details.” – Yonatan [00:30]
• On societal resilience:
  • “I think we are a super healthy democracy. Throughout the war, you saw people who opposed the prime minister at hundreds of thousands go out there and protest. You saw folks going to miluim and then going back to protest as they were not in reserve service...solidarity won big time over the last couple of years.” – Yonatan [10:44]
• On economic optimism:
  • “When you connect the dots…you understand the coil is in its right place for significant growth over the next couple of years, assuming the fog of war is indeed lifted.” – Yonatan [09:41]
• On humor and hope:
  • “And I also have some pretty good news about what's happened with your stocks over the past two years. Incredible. Incredible.” [18:47]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Number of the Week: [00:09–00:34]
• Fog of War & Historical Parallels: [01:05–02:13]
• Windex Update & Market Trends: [03:17–05:58]
• War Costs, Debt & Economic Indicators: [06:43–09:54]
• Reservists & Labor Market: [09:54–12:36]
• Regional Diplomacy & BDS: [12:36–17:06]
• Tourism & Flights: [17:06–17:37]
• Nvidia Hostage Story: [17:47–18:56]
• Closing Reflections on Resilience: [18:57–19:52]

Tone & Style

• The hosts balance thoughtful economic analysis with human stories, often using anecdotal evidence and humor to offset heavier topics. The tone is determinedly optimistic, highlighting both the practical challenges of post-war recovery and the enduring unity of Israeli society.

This episode is essential listening for anyone looking to understand not just the numbers behind Israel’s economic trajectory as hostilities wind down, but also the lived realities, societal strengths, and diplomatic crossroads shaping the country’s next phase.