Loading summary
Yonatan Nadiri
Foreign.
Michal Ivram
You are listening to an art media podcast. So, Yonatan, what's your number this week?
Yonatan Nadiri
My number is 20.64. That is 20.64 seconds for blessing Afrifa, an Israeli athlete who won the gold medal in the 200 meter run in the European under 23 championship. It was held earlier this week in Norway. An Israeli medal on track in the upcoming LA Olympics. Who knows, but it looks like we're on track for that.
Michal Ivram
Well, My number is 96. That's $96 million. This is a new funding round for an underground intelligence startup called Exodigo. This is a company that I spoken to on the heels of October 7th, doing really, really interesting work. It's remote sensing and mapping for everything underground and has applications, construction and other sectors, but of course also for security, which is how they got their start coming out of the idf. So two very different numbers here, very different concepts we're introducing. But whose number wins?
Yonatan Nadiri
I vote for the future Windex candidate, which would be underground intelligence. So I'm with you this one.
Michal Ivram
All right, I win. Listen, Olympics are very, very important. I think we're both parents of budding athletes, maybe future Olympic athletes. So also important. But let's add more companies to Windex. I win.
Yonatan Nadiri
Exactly. That's the game.
Michal Ivram
Welcome to what's your number From ARC Media. I'm Michal Ivram.
Yonatan Nadiri
I'm Yonatan Nadiri.
Michal Ivram
Yonatan, it is around 11am here. I was going to say Palo Alto, but I'm actually in San Francisco. If I'm being like, super, super accurate, same time zone as Palo Alto, but technically I'm in San Francisco today.
Yonatan Nadiri
Tel Aviv. Tel Aviv, 9:00pm all right.
Michal Ivram
On today's episode, we are going to unpack the economic impact of the and the broader story of the Israeli economy in 10 numbers that have gotten us to where we are today. This is a complicated moment, but it's a moment in which, while the war is certainly not yet over, we seem to have entered a different stage.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah, I think, as we said in the last couple episodes, the fog of war is clearing up. The fog of the day after isn't clear yet, but it's definitely a point where we can take a perspective. Can the war take a turn for the worse? This week we saw Syria, where we thought we're heading for normalization actually does take a turn for the worse. So this is not to say the war is over, but we both agree that this is a good time to take a perspective, a retrospective, if you will. 20 months back with hope and optimism that we're on our way to a resolution.
Michal Ivram
First, as usual we're going to take a look at some of the week's pressing news AKA our big shorts, including some key numbers that should be on your radar like the Windex onto our big shorts. We're going to kick things off with the Windex as usual. Yonatan, what are the numbers looking like?
Yonatan Nadiri
So we had a red week last week, one of our first as there's been, you know, a number of consecutive weeks in the green. So Windex I'm happy to announce is back in the green back beating both Nasdaq and the S&P 500. We're up 1.99% on the week, beating the S&P one by 1.32% and NASDAQ by half A we're seeing most losses from last week regained. This is kind of a classic as we suspected last week, a correction. People have earned a lot. They've taken some of that profit off the table and we have some new investors coming in. Big winners. Lemonade with a strong recovery at north of 10% and the big part of the Windex which is Palo Alto Networks again recovering at almost four and a half percent. I think a couple of interesting dynamics this week also are Pagia, AI FinTech, PGY. The tick continues its rally 35.25% in a single week. The 52 week high has been reached. Last week it's 234% year to date. That's mainly due to a preliminary Q2 release of numbers. That being said, it is still traded a fraction of its IPO market cap.
Michal Ivram
Well, nice to see that all in all things are back in the green Yonatan but we have a lot of other news to get to so let's move along. First item that I want to get to here is the future of Bibi's coalition. Two Haredi parties have already announced that they're leaving the coalition and another could follow. There's a lot of attention obviously on the Hardi draft and what happens there. But what's not getting a lot of attention is the economic implications. What happens, what are the ramifications if the current government actually toppled?
Yonatan Nadiri
So I think maybe, you know, just a couple of analytical points here. The way the government is built, it has enough if you will spare for those two ultra orthodox parties to retire. We've seen SHAs, the third one which would actually create a toppling of the government, create sort of a mix and match of what the kind of the bare minimum it can do in order to keep the government intact. So a lot of hopes with regards to the government not being toppled this week, but a lot of kind of fights and signals and of leaking to the press. It's actually getting a bit nasty on the economic side. It is very consequential because for now, a lot of the laws that are required to expand the budget cannot be passed. The Defense administration wants to add $12 billion. We're going to talk about that later in the numbers. As part of the Iranian 12 day war, to be added to the defense budget, which was already doubled within the 2025 budget. We're looking at 31 billion already, which is 8% of GDP, 20% of the budget. 20% of the budget now is a defense budget before the changes. Now, the way this works is if the government does topple in October or November, we're looking at a March election, which means next year's budget would be one divided by 12. Right. So basically a division of 12 months of the existing budget, which is horrible. Horrible. We don't want to be at a point where we haven't passed a new budget. We're getting into November, December without a clear 2026 bud. And this would cost just too much money and would have Israel lose a lot of its gains at the tail end of the war.
Michal Ivram
It's interesting, we've been talking so much about the fog of war starting to lift and the fog of the day after. We've been talking about the fog of the day after more in terms of what happens next in Gaza. Yeah, but obviously there's the fog of the day after in Israel as well. And all of this uncertainty around the budget, around the internal politics of the government. Markets don't love uncertainty. And so are we kind of replacing one for another?
Yonatan Nadiri
We are. And I think what we're looking at is also this sort of dormant inefficiency that will, you know, explode at some point. Just to give a couple of facts there for the last couple of years, we don't have the highest ranking official in the sort of government public sector, HR chief, which is critical to appoint all the key officials in the public service. We do not have, we have an acting head of Shin Bet. We have challenges in the Social Security. People are not being appointed. So the entire apparatus is being run by number twos and number threes. And so I'm concerned that if the government is either toppled or gets into this limbo, there is no effective procedure or process by which key economic decisions that must be made will be made. And that's. These kind of twilight zones are really bad for the economy. Totally agree. This fog of war is being used by the bad actors in and around the Israeli macroeconomy. It's a shame. And it will bear a price in the 2026 budget.
Michal Ivram
Well, let's turn our attention to the United States for a minute here. Another piece of news that crossed both of our radars in the last few days is Congress approving the first major crypto legislation in the U.S. the landmark genius act has been signed into law. It's establishing a federal framework for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies that are basically designed to maintain stable value because they're pegged to value of something more stable, like the US Dollar. And there are several other proposed legislations that are making their way to President Trump's desk, including one that is seeking to establish which regulatory body can oversee crypto. It's been a bit of a wild west. And even though people think companies want to, you know, operate in a wild west, no. At some point, a market has to mature and they actually need clear rules of the road. So that's what the industry's been calling for. I think the big question here is, what about Israel? What's Israel doing on this front?
Yonatan Nadiri
First of all, it's very interesting. See the president now it's six months in office taking this step the whole world was waiting to see what will the American administration do as it carries a massive ripple effect. Most stablecoins are, at the end of the day, pegged to the dollar, which shows you how strong America is, how strong the dollar is, that even if, as we venture into new types of financial vehicles, they all go back to the US Dollar. So what the president did in the last couple of weeks has delivered a line of sight, has actually clear for significant innovation. There is a moral turpitude involved, and some have criticized the president, even personally, for that. From an Israeli standpoint. I spoke this morning to NIR Hirschman and actually, very coincidentally, last week, the Israeli Professional Committee for the Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework has presented its strategy, national strategy, to the Knesset. Neil Hirschman is the deputy head of this committee. And it actually does bear massive resemblance to the dynamics we saw from the Genius Act. So I think very much in alignment on that. No to an Israeli digital Shekel, very supportive of Israel actually doing, again, following in America's footsteps, choosing a reserve coin in the crypto space, or reserve crypto sort of basket. Just a couple of numbers here. About 3,500 employees in the tech industry are in crypto startups, roughly 160 companies in that space. Some of them are actually very important for the global crypto space. The most important, important one that we've covered is the last joinee to the Windex, which is Etoro, which has also shown the world after coinbase and other IPOs that you can IPO a crypto company in the new administration with the sec, which I think is showing how Israelis are again kind of taking the leap forward fireblocks, which is kind of like the base layer of a lot of those transactions. But Israel will not grow and will not be able to open up if it doesn't foster similar type regulations. Neil will be able to join us in future episodes. So we're going to get a deep dive into the crypto space in Israel. Very positive, very optimistic. But it did take the American President to kind of set the stage for Israel and some other markets.
Michal Ivram
The key in the United States to getting this passed ultimately was not just having, I mean, I know President Trump likes to say he's the first kind of crypto president. And by the way, he did a 180 as well himself because he was not pro crypto initially, first time around. The key here has been that the industry has managed to get bipartisan support ultimately. So I think it'll be interesting to see along political lines in Israel. And again, there's so much distractions right now, so who knows how quickly this moves. But it'll be interesting to see again along political lines. Where does this fall? Moving on to our long play, our weekly deep dive. The cost of wars to nations is frequently measured by blood and treasure. And while emotionally it's pretty obvious, I think why the cost in blood demands the vast majority of our attention. We really wanted to focus today on the economic reality of this war. So what we did is we chose 10 numbers that in our view tell the economic story. And as we said earlier, it's one that does not yet have an ending. But with a potentially longer term ceasefire maybe in the works, we thought that this was good timing to take a bit of a look back, kind of frame this for our listeners as a series of three act play, if you will, again without a definitive ending quite yet. And we're gonna start out here, I think with an obvious starting point which is October 7, 2023. And the first number that we're going to introduce is $7 billion. And that is the budget of the recovery fund for the Gaza envelope known as Takuma or Phoenix. It's a fund led by Aviad Friedman and this is really reflective of just the devastation that was left by that day's attack.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah, and you know, there's this discussion of Israel being the villa in the jungle, protected by that fence and by the underground, you know, technology that was built in order to avoid this war starting off underground. And you know, when you kind of think through a $7 billion damages over, call it 48 hour long invasion, which is the term that I use for what happened on October 7th. My co founder at Alenu, Reuven Tab, who was called in, he's in. Sayed Matkal was called in that day. Calls it the first time I saw what lack of sovereignty looks like fighting a war on our land, in our territory. And the burned kibbutzim, the roads, the cars. What you have in this 7 billion is just the mere cost of Act 1, Scene 1, which is the scene of the invasion. The cost of that just in sheer dollar value was $7 billion.
Michal Ivram
You mentioned your co founder being called in. And our second number to introduce here is the number of reservists that were called up, the number that the government approved and that's over 300,000. This was on that same dark day, former Secretary of Defense Yoav Gallant basically ordered to conscript everyone. And this number of reservists which over the subsequent months, many of them were away or in and out from their families and from their jobs. We saw significant decreases in the workforce in the Israeli workforce immediately, which is pretty unprecedented. And it impacted sectors like tech, where we saw a rapid decline of work hours. It's been estimated at around 7%. A 7% loss of work hours.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah, and I think, you know, the first 90 days were also, I think the immediate notion that that's Benjamin Netanyahu, that's Yoav Galante, Cabinet. It was clear this is an all out war. This is not yet another operation. I'm 43 years old. I've seen suicide bombers in the 90s. I've seen rockets, I've seen suicide bombings in the 2000s. This was different. This was a feeling the first 72 hours that this is an invasion, this is an all out war. It would require a long military campaign. If I go up to the third number, it is the people in the north. Right. This is almost 70,000 people who were evacuated within 72 hours. The fear was a dual fear. One was that the Radwan team, which is like the equivalent of the Hamas Nukba, that's the Hezbollah force that trained and had the Propaganda for a decade saying we're going to take over the Galilee. So the fear was we're going to see October 7th on October 10th in the north. And so these families were evacuated. And given the fact that the entire kind of line up north was bombarded on an ongoing basis for nine months by Hezbollah for nine months as a way to show support for their Palestinian, I don't know how to call it, burdens in arms. In a way, these people could not go back. And the cost of that has been massive. I can tell you that until now. Some of those people are not back home, even though the war in the north ended well. And some of them may not go back just because the north of Israel does not just enjoy the same economic dynamics you enjoy in Tel Aviv or in Haifa or other places. Some people just have found, because it was so long, some people found a great economic dynamic, a great education solution for their kids. And so our number three, which is those 70,000 people in total 140, almost 5,000 people north and south being evacuated. This is a prolonged problem. We still have it right now, I.
Michal Ivram
Think just the sheer emptiness of the region overnight, the devastation to the economy, which already was struggling, as you said. I remember seeing images from the kibbutz where my mom served. Misgavam.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah.
Michal Ivram
Way up north.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah. On the border.
Michal Ivram
And on the border. Yep. I used to go there as a kid and just nobody, you know, just completely empty.
Yonatan Nadiri
Metula as well, completely bombarded. Some of those neighborhoods reduced to ashes by Hezbollah.
Michal Ivram
So we're painting a pretty bleak picture here. But this is how things looked early on in the war.
Yonatan Nadiri
So the next number is 80%. That's the number of reduction in Israeli tourism hasn't obviously recovered yet, even now after the 12 days war with Iran, which should have kind of cleared the sky and introduced this kind of notion of normalcy. We spoke last week about United coming back flying as of today, 21st. Yep. But that's nowhere near where Israeli tourism is, and that's a big issue, by the way.
Michal Ivram
Israeli tourism hadn't even yet recovered, like going back to 2022 and the earlier part of 2023. It hadn't yet recovered and gone back to the pre Covid levels. But it was on its way there for sure. And so then you had this just precipitous drop, 80%. And it was devastating.
Yonatan Nadiri
And just to conclude, you know, the fifth number for act one is the sort of macroeconomic picture. The stock exchange lost almost a quarter of value, 23% in 30 or 40 days after October 7 when again the more the severity of what happened on the 7th and the continuation of what's going on from Gaza and from Lebanon and the closing of the Dead Sea again kind of Israel besieged. Right. Dynamics. That's what international investors saw. Some money was being pulled out. Shekel was hitting its almost all time low in November, GDP Q4 shrunk by 20%. Right. So we saw basically the entire economy grinding to a halt for those 90 days. But this was rock bottom. And I think the most important piece on the macro perspective, we'll go back to that in Act 2 which is the turnaround was the risk premium, the CDS, the credit default swaps which traded in Q4 at 167 basis points. That is almost triple the 57 of October 6th. So how expensive is it for Israel to raise capital to build the economy? Three times more in 30 to 60 days. That's how we enter 2024, with very expensive debt, three times more expensive, with an economy that was held kind of to a grind to a halt, with a national psyche that was kind of thinking about the siege with by the way, remember north of 200 plus hostages. Still it took a good couple of months until the first deal took place. So it was truly a difficult, let's say first 90 days, Act 1 90, 120 days all the way through January.
Michal Ivram
February, let's keep moving along. By the end of Q1 2024 we are in Act 2, we're in Act 2 now. By Q1 2024 we saw something strange take shape and that's the Israeli economy largely rec and keep in mind this is just a few months after the initial invasion and the war breaking out. By end of that quarter, first quarter of 24, the Tel Aviv stock exchange had already not just rebounded but was exceeding pre war levels. In 2024 there were about 161,000 new trading accounts that were opened in the Israeli capital market, which is significant for a small country. The Shekel had already been stabilized late 2023 actually because the bank of Israel moved so quickly to prevent a complete meltdown and announced it would sell up to $30 billion of reserves and provide $15 billion of foreign exchange swaps. And meanwhile Yonatan, I know this is a topic that's near to your heart. The net cash reserves that Israel was sitting on, this was really, really critical as well.
Yonatan Nadiri
The 2225 billion is a big number and I think it is a very important number. Israel went from 61% debt to GDP on October 6th to now it's almost 71% to 10%. That's a lot. And much of it was raised with very high risk premiums. But if you have, you know, if you raise, let's say even 50 billion and you have to pay an added interest of 6%, 6.5% on basis points vis a vis the US and you have $225 billion kind of in a cushion, everybody knows you're going to pay back. And I think that was again going back to Professor Amir Yaron leading the Central bank, the conservative manner in which they communicated to the global community of investors saying the government can borrow even if it's expensive because we have this cushion and this is an economy at war. It is resilient, it's going to bounce back. And I think that as the weeks went by, again, in hindsight, you think about 2024, two Iranian massive ballistic missile attacks. What kept us strong, I would say end of November through end of Q1, almost through the April attack from Iran, was also Iron Dome and the entire air defense systems. We lived a normal life under tens of thousands of rockets in 90 days. North and South Gaza was still firing tens, sometimes hundreds, sometimes tens of rockets every day. The economy pushed forward and you know, just life kind of came back. No shortage of food, no shortage of electricity, water and so on. And I think that's what convinced the global investors that we're going to the comeback is on its way.
Michal Ivram
There were several other votes of confidence that we saw in the ensuing months. And one that we'll highlight Here is the $32 billion acquisition of Wiz by Google or the announcement of the acquisition. Wiz, as we've talked about, was started by four Israeli founders. This was a huge vote of confidence by Google. One of the largest tech deals all around in the history of technology, in the history of the industry. But the largest acquisition of an Israeli founded company ever. And another data point here, by the second quarter of 2025, we saw a record quarter since the highs of Q2, 2022, which was all around a crazy, crazy year in Covid bubble in venture capital. Yep. So post Covid bubble this was huge. And by the way, the data here, which was $5.2 billion raised by Israeli tech companies, that quarter doesn't include major defense tech investments.
Yonatan Nadiri
The bounce back was really evident in Q2 2025. Mind you, this is the quarter where we had the 12 day war. We're going to talk about some of those numbers as well. But I think what we saw there was the Incredible. Again, the incredible resilience. People working from home, people caring for some companies, having people in reserve service for months. And again, we've been famous for this. We kind of lost that capacity for, I would say 30 to 45 days, October, November, and then climbed back. I think another piece here which is phenomenal. We heard Ron Dermer's interview with Dan at callmeback. The question was militarily, has it ever been a case where a company that was invaded in such aggressive nature recovery so quickly, militarily. And I think Dan made the comment that this maybe has happened to France like 200 years ago economically. Such a recovery whereby in Q2, 25, 20 months into the war, the chairman of the bank doesn't reduce the interest rates because the Shekel, the currency of the warring country, is so strong. I don't think there's any record of that in history that is outside a superpower like the U.S. and so the strength of the Shekel, where we are right now, where we stand, is phenomenal. It's not just a military recovery, it is an economic recovery. And those numbers kind of prove that beyond any doubt. The eighth number here, which is important as part of the recovery, is the cost of the war. The actual cost of military spending, the daily cost of the war varied. We're looking at 300 billion shekels, roughly, I would say 80 billion, 82 billion throughout the 20 months. So you can kind of divide for the average, but I would say the most important number of the last few weeks is that the cost of the war with Iran, the 12 days, was a billion dollars per day. That is 1% of Israel's GDP every five days of war. Because this was an entirely different type of war. This is not infantry, this is heavy, heavy aircraft, air force driven type warfare with massive risk and with interceptions of ballistic missiles. And so to me, this is a very important number. And this is a number that goes back to our big shorts. If the government doesn't get its act together in planning for the 2026 budget, we're going to have a very hard time recovering over the longer term. Because a $12 billion cost of a 12 day war, if we don't adjust budgets, that's going to be quite a difficult hurdle to surpass. With 30 billion already budgeted in 2025. 20% of the budget. Right. And I think the Last number, the ninth, is the displacement cost. So again, 12 days of the Iran war, $1.3 billion just in displacement repayments is higher than the entire war until June 2025, the lost property. And we just spoke to Professor Schlush last week. Right. It was like almost a billion dollars for those labs in and of themselves in recovery costs, not just being paid back. So this is an important number going forward. Can Israel afford a tit for tat kind of war of attrition and enforcement with Iran? It doesn't seem like it from an economic perspective. And then maybe to conclude this is not really a number. This is a BBB or Baa1, depending on which rating agencies. We saw Moody's and we saw S and P here. We saw the reduction in Israeli credit ratings. So not only did the basis points in the CDS went up, but also the kind of lengthy reports about Israel's macroeconomic geopolitical posture by Moody's, by S and P and so on were very aggressive downgr, some of them even a double downgrade at a single point and a negative outlook. The main assumption, the recurring theme was if indeed Israel goes to war with Iran, it's going to spiral economically out of control. Well, guess what? 12 days expensive, $12 billion. And that's what you're seeing with the kind of rise in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which outperformed in 2025, the entirety of its peers globally. Investors are saying that they don't trust the sort of S and P, the Moody's report on the geopolitical risks. And I think that if you kind of look at the macro perspective right now around investors in Israel, they're basically saying if this war ends now and if you get your political act together, there's going to be a very bright future heading to Israel's hundredth year of sovereignty.
Michal Ivram
Okay, so on that note, I have two more quick things to say before we conclude. One is that for a podcast called called what's yous Number? We are not particularly good at sticking to the number that we promised listeners. I know this was supposed to be 10 numbers. Obviously there were a lot more that we threw out there, but this was kind of a look back in 10 points.
Yonatan Nadiri
10 scenes, huh? That's more of like three acts and 10 scenes with a lot of numbers that reflect the shock of the beginning, but also the resilience and the recovery and the turning point and the optimism of the second and third act.
Michal Ivram
And I think the other point is that that when it comes to what's next, because it's not a done deal, right? There's still so much that's up in the air. And we talked earlier about some of the uncertainty, the political uncertainty, and how that's not conducive to the business realities. There are a lot of question marks. I feel like at this point, you know, our attention is more and more turning to some of the internal strife. And we talked about a crypto framework. What's going to happen there? Even more important, even more critical, is an AI framework, a national AI agenda. What's going to happen there? There are a lot of issues that to be worked out in order for the Israeli innovation engine in particular to stay on top. And right now there are a lot of distractions.
Yonatan Nadiri
The questions you're raising are the critical ones. Can we kind of focus again, as, you know, sort of. I'm in a way politically involved, at least on the idea side. I would advocate. This is the time for Israel's third founding moment. This is the time for radical decisions, like in 1985, post, you know, the massive economic crisis Israel suffered. This is a time to make tough decisions. Integration of the Haredi society, on personal safety, on transportation, those civil issues. If we're in a casino, we are now, against all odds, we have all the chips on our hand. Do we cash out or do we double down and take more risks and more bets? My outlook, at least economically and geopolitically, would be this is so far beyond any positive scenario we could have thought of, of again, hoping and assuming that the hostages are also back, because that's an open wound, festering wound, then it's time to go back and look at this as a third founding moment. Not to lean back, but to move forward and lean in. And if we're not gonna do that, we're risking the amazing achievements of this incredible system, this incredible society that is Israel.
Michal Ivram
All right, well, I've got a name to give our very awe inspiring, tragic, uncertain, impressive, incredible play that we just laid out for listeners. And that is. It's complicated.
Yonatan Nadiri
It's complicated, but much unlike in history, it's in our hands. We are not invaded. We are sovereign. The bond between American Jews, European Jews, you know, global Jewish peoplehood in Israel is very, very strong. It is in our hands. We have all the tools and all the leverage, courage to build for 100th year of Israel, to be strong, to be regionally, you know, accepted or even dominant, and to see us, you know, keeping the tikkun olam as we have through tech and others, you know, rising. So it's complicated, that's for sure. But I like our odds.
Michal Ivram
Well, we began our show with the numbers of the week, and as usual, we're going to wrap with the words of the week this time. It's a quote from Avi Has Thon, CEO of Israel's Startup Nation Central, former head of the Israeli Innovation Authority and an investor no stranger to us on this podcast. And he said this in a recent CNBC interview about the strength of Israel's economy. When investors try to look at the fundamentals of the Israeli economy, and more specifically the tech market, its dynamism, its capabilities, the baby boom, new company creation, global investors and global companies are taking notice when they try to imagine the Middle east, not necessarily how it is today, but rather in the months and years to come. I think it takes a lot of obviously hard work, but also imagination. Let's hope better days are ahead.
Yonatan Nadiri
Yeah, I'm very optimistic. And again, I love the fact that it's in our hands. We hold the leverage. And again, I like our odds. I think Israel's hundredth year, if we play it right and we're brave and we do the radical things we need to do also internally, this is going to be, you know, an incredible journey ahead.
Michal Ivram
Well, there's a reason you're an entrepreneur, an internal optimist. I love it. All right, that is it for today's show. Thank you for tuning into ARC Media's what's your number? We hope you found it interesting. And if you did, please be sure to, like, subscribe. Rate review. You know the drill, but most importantly, share it with others who you think will find it interesting. And if you want to make suggestions or share your feedback, please reach out to us at at what's your number? @arc media.org.
Yonatan Nadiri
What'S yous Number is produced by Ilan Benatar and edited by Michael Evram. A sound and video editing is by Martin Huergo. Our theme music is by Midnight Generation. I'm Yonatan Adiri.
Michal Ivram
And I'm Michal Avram. See you back here next week.
Yonatan Nadiri
See you next week.
Michal Ivram
This podcast offers general business and economic information and is not a comprehensive summary for investment decisions. It does not recommend or solicit any investment strategy or security.
What's Your Number? Podcast Summary: "Israel's War-Economy in 10 Numbers"
Release Date: July 23, 2025
Hosts: Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram
In this episode of What's Your Number?, hosted by Yonatan Adiri and Michal Lev-Ram from Ark Media, the focus centers on the intricate interplay between Israel's ongoing conflicts and its economic landscape. Titled "Israel's War-Economy in 10 Numbers," the discussion delves deep into key statistics and events that have shaped the Israeli economy amidst wartime challenges.
The hosts kick off with their signature segment, sharing personal "numbers" that highlight current events and investments:
Yonatan highlights a promising athletic achievement: "20.64 seconds for blessing Afrifa, an Israeli athlete who won the gold medal in the 200 meter run in the European under 23 championship" (00:11).
Michal presents an economic figure: "$96 million raised in a new funding round for Exodigo, an underground intelligence startup" (00:33).
Their friendly competition over which number holds greater significance sets the stage for the episode's analytical depth.
The discussion transitions to the broader economic impact of the ongoing conflict:
Michal sets the agenda: "We're going to unpack the economic impact of the broader story of the Israeli economy in 10 numbers that have gotten us to where we are today" (02:18).
Yonatan reflects on the evolving situation: "The fog of war is clearing up… we're on our way to a resolution" (02:18).
However, recent developments signal potential setbacks, such as Syria's worsening situation, indicating that while some clarity is emerging, uncertainty remains.
A significant portion of the conversation addresses the fragility of Israel's current government coalition and its economic repercussions:
Michal raises concerns about the Haredi parties exiting the coalition and the ensuing economic implications: "What happens, what are the ramifications if the current government actually toppled?" (04:22).
Yonatan analyzes the potential fallout: "If the government does topple in October or November, we're looking at a March election, which means next year's budget would be one divided by 12 months… that's horrible" (05:00).
The uncertainty surrounding budget approvals hampers critical defense spending and threatens Israel's economic stability.
Shifting focus to the global stage, the hosts discuss the United States' landmark crypto legislation and its implications for Israel:
Michal outlines the GenSIS Act: "It's establishing a federal framework for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies" (08:07).
Yonatan connects this development to Israel's strategy: "The Israeli Professional Committee for the Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework has presented its strategy, which bears massive resemblance to the dynamics we saw from the GenSIS Act" (09:05).
Israel mirrors the US approach, emphasizing a reserve crypto basket over a digital shekel, fostering innovation while ensuring regulatory compliance.
The heart of the episode lies in dissecting the economic consequences of the war through ten pivotal numbers, structured as a three-act narrative:
$7 Billion (13:26): The budget for the recovery fund, Takuma (Phoenix), led by Aviad Friedman, reflecting the devastation from the October 7th attack.
300,000 Reservists (14:21): The number of reservists called up, leading to a significant workforce reduction, notably a 7% drop in work hours in the tech sector.
70,000 Evacuated Individuals (15:12): The mass evacuation in the north due to fears of further aggression, resulting in long-term demographic and economic shifts.
80% Drop in Tourism (17:16): A staggering decline in Israeli tourism post-invasion, severely impacting the economy.
23% Stock Exchange Loss (18:34): The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange plummeted nearly a quarter in the aftermath of the invasion, alongside a GDP shrinkage of 20% in Q4.
161,000 New Trading Accounts (21:25): A surge in investment as the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange not only recovers but surpasses pre-war levels, signaling investor confidence.
$225 Billion in Cash Reserves (21:25): Israel's substantial cash reserves provided a buffer, enabling the government to manage high-risk premiums and stabilize the Shekel.
$32 Billion Wiz Acquisition by Google (23:08): A landmark deal showcasing global confidence in Israeli tech companies.
$12 Billion Daily War Cost (24:08): The immense financial burden of the 12-day war with Iran, equating to 1% of Israel's GDP every five days.
$1.3 Billion in Displacement Repayments (28:38): The hefty costs associated with displaced populations and recovery efforts post-war.
Notable Insights:
Resilience Amid Conflict: "We lived a normal life under tens of thousands of rockets… the economy pushed forward and life kind of came back" (21:25).
Investor Confidence: "Investors are saying that they don't trust the sort of S&P, the Moody's report on the geopolitical risks" (28:38).
The episode culminates with a reflection on the ongoing resilience and the path forward:
Economic Bounce Back: Despite the continuous threats and military engagements, Israel's economy demonstrates remarkable recovery and growth, surpassing global peers.
Strategic Economic Positioning: The strong Shekel and robust cash reserves position Israel favorably for future economic endeavors, provided political and budgetary challenges are navigated effectively.
As the episode draws to a close, the hosts ponder the future trajectory of Israel's economy amid persistent uncertainties:
Michal underscores the importance of addressing internal strife and establishing robust regulatory frameworks: "An AI framework, a national AI agenda… for the Israeli innovation engine to stay on top" (29:51).
Yonatan advocates for a pivotal moment in Israel's history: "This is the time for Israel's third founding moment… Do we cash out or do we double down and take more risks and more bets?" (29:51).
The hosts express cautious optimism, emphasizing the critical role of strategic decisions in shaping Israel's economic and geopolitical future.
Closing Quote:
"When investors try to look at the fundamentals of the Israeli economy, and more specifically the tech market, its dynamism, its capabilities, the baby boom, new company creation, global investors and global companies are taking notice…" — Avi Hashton, CEO of Israel's Startup Nation Central (32:54).
This sentiment encapsulates the enduring potential and resilience of Israel's economy, even in the face of adversities.
Yonatan and Michal wrap up the episode by acknowledging the complexity of Israel's current situation, yet remain hopeful about the nation's capacity to navigate through challenges:
Michal: "It's complicated, but much unlike in history, it's in our hands… the bond between American Jews, European Jews, global Jewish peoplehood in Israel is very, very strong" (31:21).
Yonatan: "I love our odds. I think Israel's hundredth year, if we play it right… this is going to be, you know, an incredible journey ahead" (32:00).
The episode concludes on an inspirational note, urging listeners to recognize Israel's agency in shaping its destiny amidst a tumultuous global landscape.
Note: This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and numerical analyses presented in the podcast episode. For a comprehensive understanding and nuanced perspectives, listening to the full episode is recommended.